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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 8, 2019 22:14:32 GMT -5
That’s included in my above through Oct 2020. If you’re referencing Q4 2020 and after, my scenario has us out of cash end of October 2020
Edit: And I was extremely generous by increasing net Afrezza revenues $1m per month which I did to meet the $40m someone projected herein for 2020. Looking at the past 6 months except for this past week’s gross sales reported by Symphony, growth has been closer to flat.
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Post by neil36 on Oct 8, 2019 22:22:56 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even.
If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m)
HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO
- Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD)
- Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week)
- TrepT royalties of $30 million per year
- Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule
Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments.
A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share
Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong.
Other back-o-napkin models welcome.
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 22:36:56 GMT -5
That’s included in my above through Oct 2020. If you’re referencing Q4 2020 and after, my scenario has us out of cash end of October 2020 Let’s see... 37 unrestricted cash now Q4 - 8 2020 - 40 US revenue ITHR - 37 milestones Mid cap - 10 if warrants expire Total minimum revenue - 132 for 5 quarters Max expenses per quarter - 25 x 5 = 125 Looks to me we have enough through 2020 😊 |
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Post by georgethenight2 on Oct 8, 2019 23:10:25 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even. If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m) HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO - Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD) - Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week) - TrepT royalties of $30 million per year - Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments. A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong. Other back-o-napkin models welcome. If MNKD can turn a profit, I think we become bell of the ball. WS would thrust us up on stage so fast that a PE of twice that wouldnt be impossible. Just my overly optomistic self. |
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Post by morfu on Oct 9, 2019 2:01:21 GMT -5
Do not forget to add US revenue to your calculations, seems like you stopped at Q3... Revenue will still be coming: Q4 - 8M Q1 - 9m Q2- 10m And so on... 😊
Here are some numbers from the last quarters.. no guarantee I got them right..
I18 II18 III18 IV18 I19 II19 Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 of which Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10 11.5 12.2 13.2 Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 Afrezza gross profit -0.6* -1.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 R&D expenses -2.6 -3.0 2.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 SG&A -15.4 -21.7 -19.4 -18.0 -27.7 -16.6 Interest expense -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 net loss -30.4 -22.7 -24.2 -9.7 -14.9 -12.4 Cash 27.2 53.1 11.0 71.7 59.8 38.2** *Sanofi buyout?? **38.2+75 new credits, 40 of this came in Aug19 |
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 9, 2019 4:02:50 GMT -5
As I said ... Mike C said ALL THAT in the last 2 conference calls. We have enough cash till ending of 2020. More containers go to the "addicted Afrezza users" in Brazil ... just adds to the pot. All longs just need to buy all the shares outstanding so that the shorts can't escape. BTW, I'm trying but I can't do it alone. Ha!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by ktim on Oct 9, 2019 14:49:46 GMT -5
Optimism is a hazard on message boards where mediators respect investor views and occasionally delete obvious off-topic posts and other SPAM. Where did I state the consensus view on this THREAD was a widely held belief beyond this forum [MNKD Proboards]? You did not. Didn't mean to imply anything about your own views, just stating something related to your post... perhaps that was obvious. |
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Post by ktim on Oct 9, 2019 15:03:14 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even. If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m) HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO - Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD) - Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week) - TrepT royalties of $30 million per year - Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments. A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong. Other back-o-napkin models welcome. Unless one wants to interpret last weeks number as the start of some newly energized faster than linear growth, your projection for 2021 Afrezza isn't consistent with the trend. But I think you're spot on when you say "Lots of upside if everything goes right." These assumptions on making it to profitability with no extra cash infusion seem to require every single "if" to break in favor of MNKD. Rarely does that happen for any company, and MNKD track record so far has been worse than average rather than better when it comes to things breaking favorably. Hopefully we start seeing the "ifs" be positive more and more frequently, if not always. Seems like the debt covenants are an important set of "ifs". |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Nov 4, 2019 9:06:24 GMT -5
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 4, 2019 12:50:03 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even. If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m) HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO - Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD) - Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week) - TrepT royalties of $30 million per year - Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments. A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong. Other back-o-napkin models welcome. I don't think your numbers for Afrezza are correct. Last quarter after rebates and cost of goods there was $1.7M left from Afrezza making $132 per week over the quarter. SG&A alone was $16M. |
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Post by bones1026 on Nov 4, 2019 13:23:52 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even. If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m) HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO - Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD) - Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week) - TrepT royalties of $30 million per year - Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments. A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong. Other back-o-napkin models welcome. I don't think your numbers for Afrezza are correct. Last quarter after rebates and cost of goods there was $1.7M left from Afrezza making $132 per week over the quarter. SG&A alone was $16M. Very strange how a individual who is not invested in this company, yet finds time to engage in these types of conversations in his spare time..I guess you and SO are just very fascinated with this company..🤷♂️ |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 4, 2019 16:56:47 GMT -5
I don't think your numbers for Afrezza are correct. Last quarter after rebates and cost of goods there was $1.7M left from Afrezza making $132 per week over the quarter. SG&A alone was $16M. Very strange how a individual who is not invested in this company, yet finds time to engage in these types of conversations in his spare time..I guess you and SO are just very fascinated with this company..🤷♂️ Not that strange. I have been invested in the past a couple of times, and I expect to be invested again in the future. If I want to know when to jump back in it pays me to know the numbers. Besides that, it takes a lot less time than you seem to think.  |
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Post by neil36 on Nov 4, 2019 17:21:14 GMT -5
I accept that 2020 won’t be a year of profits. But rather the year of closing the gap to break even. If we use SO’s model that we are starting to bring in about $600,000 a week and burning about $1.7 million a week ($89 million a year loss), assume MNKD need at least $2.3m per week to break even at the current burn rate ($120 million per year, which is currently only offset by income of $31.2m) HYPOTHETICAL 2021 SCENARIO - Afrezza scripts double to 2,000 per week with retail sales of $3.2 million per week ($166.4 retail sales per year of which $76.5m makes its way back to MNKD) - Brazil income to MNKD of $10 million ($195,000 per week) - TrepT royalties of $30 million per year - Milestone payments of $25 million on another molecule Total net income to MNKD of $141.5m to cover a burn rate north of $120m per year. The assumed burn rate might not fully build in interest payments and insulin payments. A profit of $21.5 million with an aggressive growth PE of 30 would yield a market cap of $630 million, or around three dollars per share Lots of upside if everything goes right. Lots of debt to service if anything goes wrong. Other back-o-napkin models welcome. I don't think your numbers for Afrezza are correct. Last quarter after rebates and cost of goods there was $1.7M left from Afrezza making $132 per week over the quarter. SG&A alone was $16M. Aged: My numbers are just back-o-napkin mud on the wall and intended to solicit other perspectives. Are you suggesting my post is too conservative? Or overly optimistic? Just want to make sure I’m not misinterpreting your point. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 4, 2019 17:40:05 GMT -5
I don't think your numbers for Afrezza are correct. Last quarter after rebates and cost of goods there was $1.7M left from Afrezza making $132 per week over the quarter. SG&A alone was $16M. Aged: My numbers are just back-o-napkin mud on the wall and intended to solicit other perspectives. Are you suggesting my post is too conservative? Or overly optimistic? Just want to make sure I’m not misinterpreting your point. I think overly optimistic because you made the same mistake I made. Taking the June 2019 10Q as the basis for this - on page 31 there is a breakdown of the revenue and associated costs. My assumption always was that Afrezza profit was Revenue less Cost of Goods and I assumed that the rebates were factored into the revenue number. Turns out if you look at page 31 that is not the case and revenue must have those deducted to get the actual net revenue. That actual revenue number is then passed forwards to page 32 where the Cost of Goods is deducted to get the commercial product gross profit which is $1,738K in that quarter. The catch was that rebates line which reflects things like the costs to Mannkind of wholesaler distribution fees, rebates and chargebacks, product returns and other discounts. |
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Post by neil36 on Nov 4, 2019 17:57:32 GMT -5
Thanks Aged.
That’s not in insignificant data point. Even my acquaintance (discussed in my thread “Personal Glimmer of Hope”, has yet to fully pay for a prescription. He started with a free 30-day sample from his endo and has now gotten a couple refills with rebate cards.
He loves the results he is getting, so I imagine he will continue indefinitely.....unless he runs in to the much-discussed financial/insurance issues, which continue to plague this product and the company.
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