|
|
Post by bones1026 on Nov 5, 2019 20:32:25 GMT -5
If I recall sam finta said he never owned mnkd stock either and he spent a ton of time here. He uses the drug and has helped many do the same..as far as I know neither Spencer or Aged have used Afrezza..Spencer isn’t even a diabetic.. |
|
|
|
Post by longliner on Nov 5, 2019 20:35:54 GMT -5
Well said mnholdem , et al. The product and I'd add the opportunity given the current-state of competing therapeutics. I'm reminded of Dr. Kendall's tirade couple of years ago at the ASM. That was rich given where we still remain, but it's still a classic in my mind and of course still true to a degree. At least one executive at MannKind has a set of balls. I admire the way Amarin took on the FDA in court and won based upon the scientific data. Kendall expressed disbelief over the FDA's interpretation of clinical data. Like "this seems too good to be true so we'll add a few minutes to the onset of action". Kendall spoke out. The CEO, on the other hand, folded to the FDA and removed the pizza from the Afrezza TV commercial. Because the FDA thought it sends the wrong message about diabetes? What about the message behind Afrezza that it can help control your blood sugar, even if you're eating pizza. Positioning Afrezza as a new insulin that adapts to your lifestyle (unexpected moments) would resonate with diabetes patients if this CEO would just show up. Give Kendall the CEO job and you'll see some major movement. He's one of the industries leading experts for crying out loud! I doubt taking on BP AND the FDA when you are on a financial tightrope is wise. I don't dispute your reasoning for admiring for Kendall. To be clear, I don't know Mike, I have never had any communication or interaction with him. I had one online interaction with Rose that was prompt and courteous when I questioned why I had gone to DOJ in defense of Mannkind yet Mannkind seemed to not defend itself against criticism. Her response (paraphrased) Mannkind does not respond to online criticism etc.. |
|
|
|
Post by bioexec25 on Nov 5, 2019 21:23:20 GMT -5
Kendall has the technical and executive pedigree to lead the company. Perhaps not a conventional first choice but given the circumstances maybe an obvious one. He is widely respected in the industry and within the FDA.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2019 1:00:08 GMT -5
Kendall has the technical and executive pedigree to lead the company. Perhaps not a conventional first choice but given the circumstances maybe an obvious one. He is widely respected in the industry and within the FDA. That is the DUMBEST THING I HAVE READ ON THIS BOARD. Kendall as CEO??? Kendall responsibility is to advance the message of Afrezza. That's his ONLY JOB since MNKD has no other drugs. So what does her do all day?? Everyone is bitching about Rose....maybe we need to crawl up Kendall's ass and ask why is he making a nice 6 figure salary? Mike is showing results and within the whole company. Mike has built an infrastructure.......Kendall??? Show me!!!!! |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 6, 2019 7:35:15 GMT -5
Kendall has the technical and executive pedigree to lead the company. Perhaps not a conventional first choice but given the circumstances maybe an obvious one. He is widely respected in the industry and within the FDA. Not satisfied with the CEO’s doctorate in pharma and MBA from Wharton? I like and respect Dr. Kendall. I agree he might be a good CEO but Dr. Castagna was brought on because of his chops with drug re-launch. He’s impressed me because he’s a self-made man. He worked his way through college working in a pharmacy and was introduced to the pharma industry where he went after college and obviously flourished, but he didn’t stop there. He annexed an MBA from an Ivy League school (again while working) and then later a doctorate in pharma (again while working). He’s not only managed to be effective in his work earning a quick succession of promotions, but did not rest even while successful. He could have easily made a career doing what he had done but he watched Dr. Mann, and Mannkind, and saw Afrezza as a masterful accomplishment and took aim at getting the job of making it successful against enormous odds. Has he been any good at the re-launch? Lot’s of opinions here. I think the QoQ and YoY Afrezza sales results (prescriptions and cash) say yes, as does the UTHR deal, as does the debt restructuring, and maybe credit is due for the international marketing agreements, but has he done a good enough job? Or, can someone else have done much better? I’ve noticed no matter what stock you look at and what social network forum you browse, you will always find people who hate a company’s CEO and think someone else can do better. Some preach about taking emotion out of investing but also preach about the personality of CEOs as though the personality is what will make the positive difference between surviving and prosperity. I can understand this but it’s definitely not taking the emotion out of investing. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Nov 6, 2019 10:43:55 GMT -5
How strange is it for all of us to spend all this time online and still lose money🤣 Watch aged get in at the right time and make a boatload. Have I lost money if I’ve never sold? My portfolio continues to do OK. I don’t know what the “right time” is but I’ve assumed my most recent purchases are a safer bet because of the weekly TRx QoQ and YoY sales trend and the UTHR TreT deal and the international deals and I assume others will come along too. Doesn’t seem likely nothing will happen. As for the debt covenants, being tied to even mildly aggressive sales of Afrezza is probably a recipe for a miss. Sales are too thin and too easily disrupted. It’s OK to discuss likely consequences of a miss. Calling the loan in is not a likely consequence. An increase in the interest is a likely consequence. What else?For the most part what I see is steady improvement and reasons to be cautiously optimistic and not very fearful. I wouldn't venture a guess as to how our new creditor will react... call loan or not, etc. The one thing that we do know is that it puts MNKD back in a situation like they were with Deerfield in needing to negotiate. Creditors always have one goal in such negotiations... to maximize their profits. It would certainly seem to significantly raise the probability of further dilution. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Nov 6, 2019 10:48:19 GMT -5
If I recall sam finta said he never owned mnkd stock either and he spent a ton of time here. He uses the drug and has helped many do the same..as far as I know neither Spencer or Aged have used Afrezza..Spencer isn’t even a diabetic.. A stock analyst has to have the disease for each of the drugs they cover? That would be a crazy standard to hold them to. |
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Nov 6, 2019 10:48:51 GMT -5
Prcgorman must be Mike’s alt account, there’s no other explanation.
|
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 6, 2019 11:17:51 GMT -5
Kendall has the technical and executive pedigree to lead the company. Perhaps not a conventional first choice but given the circumstances maybe an obvious one. He is widely respected in the industry and within the FDA. Not satisfied with the CEO’s doctorate in pharma and MBA from Wharton? I like and respect Dr. Kendall. I agree he might be a good CEO but Dr. Castagna was brought on because of his chops with drug re-launch. He’s impressed me because he’s a self-made man. He worked his way through college working in a pharmacy and was introduced to the pharma industry where he went after college and obviously flourished, but he didn’t stop there. He annexed an MBA from an Ivy League school (again while working) and then later a doctorate in pharma (again while working). He’s not only managed to be effective in his work earning a quick succession of promotions, but did not rest even while successful. He could have easily made a career doing what he had done but he watched Dr. Mann, and Mannkind, and saw Afrezza as a masterful accomplishment and took aim at getting the job of making it successful against enormous odds. Has he been any good at the re-launch? Lot’s of opinions here. I think the QoQ and YoY Afrezza sales results (prescriptions and cash) say yes, as does the UTHR deal, as does the debt restructuring, and maybe credit is due for the international marketing agreements, but has he done a good enough job? Or, can someone else have done much better? I’ve noticed no matter what stock you look at and what social network forum you browse, you will always find people who hate a company’s CEO and think someone else can do better. Some preach about taking emotion out of investing but also preach about the personality of CEOs as though the personality is what will make the positive difference between surviving and prosperity. I can understand this but it’s definitely not taking the emotion out of investing. Some of that is reasonable, but I don't understand how "Afrezza sales results" could possibly point to MC being "good at the relaunch" - even he would agree those sales result have NOT been what they should (didn't he explicitly state that in CC today)? I'm with you on the personality issue. Sure it could come into play, but it's secondary to results. If you have fantastic results, there's a lot of leeway on personality. But when share price gets trampled (especially after you predict the opposite), then personality deficits tend to come back to bite you. And i'm not endorsing any of the criticism of MC's personality, as I simply have no first hand basis to comment on it either way. The jury is out on MC, I'm pulling for him to win everyone over, because that will mean our investment has turned from crappy into good. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Nov 6, 2019 11:25:25 GMT -5
Here is what’s very likely: Q3 sales revenue > 7M Q4 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR Q4 sales revenue > 8M H1 2020 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR H2 2020 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR Flexibility from either warrants or drawing from mid cap facility 10M.Minimum + 62M in next 18 months. Brazil revenue and other business developments will complete the picture to CFBE. Flexibility may not be the best word to use for two things that are looking increasingly less likely to occur. |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Nov 6, 2019 14:42:10 GMT -5
How many 5-10 year longs have posted that belief? Hundreds of them, just on ProBoards alone, have seen their invest erode to a pittance. Perhaps the latecomers are a bit insensitive to this sad fact. But...keep on pumping. I do believe the science will prevail - much faster in the right hands - and Afrezza will become a major player. How long? That depends entirely upon management and their competence at eliminating the so-called roadblocks. It's the product that keeps me in the game. So we are in the same boat. Say it anyway you want, but you're rowing and I'm sitting in the back watching you. Ha! All I know is that I also believe in Afrezza and MNKD ... also, all the stock I buy currently is bringing my cost per share down. On August 10th ... pps was $1.10 Ahhh ... to be a day trader again ! But, that's mytakeonit |
|
|
|
Post by buyitonsale on Nov 6, 2019 17:15:16 GMT -5
Here is what’s very likely: Q3 sales revenue > 7M Q4 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR Q4 sales revenue > 8M H1 2020 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR H2 2020 - 12.5M milestone from UTHR Flexibility from either warrants or drawing from mid cap facility 10M.Minimum + 62M in next 18 months. Brazil revenue and other business developments will complete the picture to CFBE. Flexibility may not be the best word to use for two things that are looking increasingly less likely to occur. I am disappointed with 3Q Afrezza revenue even more so than with 2Q revenue. Should have been much higher at this point. That was the worst part of the report for me and most likely the reason for sell off. But I do not think there will be a negative financial impact from warrants not exercised or Mid Cap not willing to lend more. I see this lending facility as a bridge loan while more TS partners are announced. In fact, the warrants will bring in much more money to the company if not exercised. With warrants, the bottom line is that the holder is either a good friend (did not want to short when they had a chance) or too greedy and now may pay the price of missing out on a lot of profits (think earlier in the summer when share price was close to $1) though the share price can still move very quickly through 1.6 before expiration. I also would like to ask MC or Binder about the mystery 3M warrant purchase, this is what makes this Q4 very unpredictable for me... My guess is that warrants will be exercised and that will validate the warrant purchase... There is enough money to continue through 2020 even with zero new partnerships, but the chances of that are also increasingly less likely to occur  Each TS partner is likely to pay a similar upfront and milestone structure as UTHR. So, get ready for a new TS partner / molecule announcement within next 12 months. My investment timelines are still good and are being further confirmed today... TreT trials are going very well, with a possibility of greatly expanding Tyvaso label / market and therefore the company is well on the way to profitability within 24 months. With that, the short story goes away, 40M shares are covered and market cap returns to the baseline price of bringing Afrezza to market (2 to 3 billion). Why, because the company that cannot be killed instantly becomes an acquisition target ... Longs do not need luck  |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 6, 2019 17:27:45 GMT -5
Not satisfied with the CEO’s doctorate in pharma and MBA from Wharton? I like and respect Dr. Kendall. I agree he might be a good CEO but Dr. Castagna was brought on because of his chops with drug re-launch. He’s impressed me because he’s a self-made man. He worked his way through college working in a pharmacy and was introduced to the pharma industry where he went after college and obviously flourished, but he didn’t stop there. He annexed an MBA from an Ivy League school (again while working) and then later a doctorate in pharma (again while working). He’s not only managed to be effective in his work earning a quick succession of promotions, but did not rest even while successful. He could have easily made a career doing what he had done but he watched Dr. Mann, and Mannkind, and saw Afrezza as a masterful accomplishment and took aim at getting the job of making it successful against enormous odds. Has he been any good at the re-launch? Lot’s of opinions here. I think the QoQ and YoY Afrezza sales results (prescriptions and cash) say yes, as does the UTHR deal, as does the debt restructuring, and maybe credit is due for the international marketing agreements, but has he done a good enough job? Or, can someone else have done much better? I’ve noticed no matter what stock you look at and what social network forum you browse, you will always find people who hate a company’s CEO and think someone else can do better. Some preach about taking emotion out of investing but also preach about the personality of CEOs as though the personality is what will make the positive difference between surviving and prosperity. I can understand this but it’s definitely not taking the emotion out of investing. Some of that is reasonable, but I don't understand how "Afrezza sales results" could possibly point to MC being "good at the relaunch" - even he would agree those sales result have NOT been what they should (didn't he explicitly state that in CC today)? I'm with you on the personality issue. Sure it could come into play, but it's secondary to results. If you have fantastic results, there's a lot of leeway on personality. But when share price gets trampled (especially after you predict the opposite), then personality deficits tend to come back to bite you. And i'm not endorsing any of the criticism of MC's personality, as I simply have no first hand basis to comment on it either way. The jury is out on MC, I'm pulling for him to win everyone over, because that will mean our investment has turned from crappy into good. You make good points. I was careful to say QoQ and YoY as my benchmark of "good enough job" on re-launch. I'm not saying those individual results are good (are we rich yet?). I'm saying the pattern of growth in sales (which eclipses Sanofi) has been good (enough). We've discussed the headwinds, a lot. What's being attempted is NOT easy (veins of gold notwithstanding). I don't believe in magic. And I barely care about personality. Some of the best CEOs have been questionably (or undoubtedly?} sociopaths. |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2019 11:33:41 GMT -5
Flexibility may not be the best word to use for two things that are looking increasingly less likely to occur. I am disappointed with 3Q Afrezza revenue even more so than with 2Q revenue. Should have been much higher at this point. That was the worst part of the report for me and most likely the reason for sell off. But I do not think there will be a negative financial impact from warrants not exercised or Mid Cap not willing to lend more. I see this lending facility as a bridge loan while more TS partners are announced. In fact, the warrants will bring in much more money to the company if not exercised. With warrants, the bottom line is that the holder is either a good friend (did not want to short when they had a chance) or too greedy and now may pay the price of missing out on a lot of profits (think earlier in the summer when share price was close to $1) though the share price can still move very quickly through 1.6 before expiration. I also would like to ask MC or Binder about the mystery 3M warrant purchase, this is what makes this Q4 very unpredictable for me... My guess is that warrants will be exercised and that will validate the warrant purchase... There is enough money to continue through 2020 even with zero new partnerships, but the chances of that are also increasingly less likely to occur
Each TS partner is likely to pay a similar upfront and milestone structure as UTHR.
So, get ready for a new TS partner / molecule announcement within next 12 months. My investment timelines are still good and are being further confirmed today... TreT trials are going very well, with a possibility of greatly expanding Tyvaso label / market and therefore the company is well on the way to profitability within 24 months. With that, the short story goes away, 40M shares are covered and market cap returns to the baseline price of bringing Afrezza to market (2 to 3 billion). Why, because the company that cannot be killed instantly becomes an acquisition target ... Longs do not need luck I'm curious about the part i bolded above. What's the basis of your belief that we'll have a new TS partner within 12 months? |
|
|
|
Post by apidistra on Nov 7, 2019 15:24:38 GMT -5
I didn't hear anything that especially concerned me. Sufficient cash, significantly improved balance sheet, persistent sales improvements, positive study results, top management not leaving.
|
|
