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Post by letitride on Nov 7, 2019 15:36:53 GMT -5
I didn't hear anything that especially concerned me. Sufficient cash, significantly improved balance sheet, persistent sales improvements, positive study results, top management not leaving. Those are the parts that concern the shorts cant you tell! |
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 7, 2019 17:02:54 GMT -5
I am disappointed with 3Q Afrezza revenue even more so than with 2Q revenue. Should have been much higher at this point. That was the worst part of the report for me and most likely the reason for sell off. But I do not think there will be a negative financial impact from warrants not exercised or Mid Cap not willing to lend more. I see this lending facility as a bridge loan while more TS partners are announced. In fact, the warrants will bring in much more money to the company if not exercised. With warrants, the bottom line is that the holder is either a good friend (did not want to short when they had a chance) or too greedy and now may pay the price of missing out on a lot of profits (think earlier in the summer when share price was close to $1) though the share price can still move very quickly through 1.6 before expiration. I also would like to ask MC or Binder about the mystery 3M warrant purchase, this is what makes this Q4 very unpredictable for me... My guess is that warrants will be exercised and that will validate the warrant purchase... There is enough money to continue through 2020 even with zero new partnerships, but the chances of that are also increasingly less likely to occur 
Each TS partner is likely to pay a similar upfront and milestone structure as UTHR.
So, get ready for a new TS partner / molecule announcement within next 12 months. My investment timelines are still good and are being further confirmed today... TreT trials are going very well, with a possibility of greatly expanding Tyvaso label / market and therefore the company is well on the way to profitability within 24 months. With that, the short story goes away, 40M shares are covered and market cap returns to the baseline price of bringing Afrezza to market (2 to 3 billion). Why, because the company that cannot be killed instantly becomes an acquisition target ... Longs do not need luck  I'm curious about the part i bolded above. What's the basis of your belief that we'll have a new TS partner within 12 months? Epinephrine is the furthest along in Pre-IND process. Has been mentioned several times and waiting for some FDA ruling. Tadalafil for ED and Sumatriptan would not advance without a third party interest (MNKD is not in the financial position to develop on their own). UHTR had not said NO to Undisclosed molecule. Cystic Fibrosis has been mentioned but probably without a direct interest, may advance soon. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2019 23:11:56 GMT -5
To your point buyitonsale I read some analysis about UTHR defensively protecting their position as a dominant provider of PAH therapy with an acquisition (I forget which one), and other actions (that I’ve also forgotten). The point is that analysis made me wonder if the Mannkind pipeline work on TreT was a shrewd choice which brought action from Martine Rothblatt resulting in a cooperative development deal significantly benefitting both companies. Your point regarding epinephrine has that same feel to it. I also agree that it is not likely Mannkind has stopped their efforts to find interest in TS-enabled applications or international (or even domestic) marketing partnerships. I think it would be naive to assume nothing is getting done and that no business development is forthcoming.
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 8, 2019 1:04:44 GMT -5
To your point buyitonsale I read some analysis about UTHR defensively protecting their position as a dominant provider of PAH therapy with an acquisition (I forget which one), and other actions (that I’ve also forgotten). The point is that analysis made me wonder if the Mannkind pipeline work on TreT was a shrewd choice which brought action from Martine Rothblatt resulting in a cooperative development deal significantly benefitting both companies. Your point regarding epinephrine has that same feel to it. I also agree that it is not likely Mannkind has stopped their efforts to find interest in TS-enabled applications or international (or even domestic) marketing partnerships. I think it would be naive to assume nothing is getting done and that no business development is forthcoming. I think that Epinephrine is the least likely molecule to partner, because the clinical work will be minimal and MNKD will most likely want to retain all rights, unless the offer is very strong. I am personally hoping for migraine and cystic fibrosis indications to be the next partnerships. |
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Post by lakers on Nov 8, 2019 2:45:42 GMT -5
spencerosborne
05:36 PM
$MNKD $10m for tranche 2 of credit facility is available until April 15th. Because mannkind is very likely to miss covenants, the company will need to negotiate some new terms (if it wants to draw the cash). Those terms could include shares, added covenants, warrants, converts, etc. Mannkind describes MidCap as "friendly". That does not mean MidCap will simply ignore terms. It really only means that MidCap wont call the loan. Likely they will keep the leash tight though. No banker worth their salt gives concessions. I would venture to say midcsp knew darn well that a covenant miss was likely when the deal was first structured. It virtually guaranteed the extra 2% interest. Tranche 3 of $25m is available til june 30, 2021.
I pointed out the likely miss of covenants on the day the MidCap facility was announced. I also stated it would be as early as november
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 8, 2019 7:07:36 GMT -5
To me this is another example of how harmful the predatory shorting is in terms of denying Mannkind access to operating capital on favorable terms. It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that the terms were known from the outset to guarantee the effect of an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM). That said, this is better than the Deerfield Convenants, and should Mannkind continue to plod closer to undeniable success, the terms on the next refi should be even better.
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Post by awesomo on Nov 8, 2019 7:15:16 GMT -5
Yes, the shorts are causing management to miss their revenue targets...
Guess who signed these deals. Weren’t we all supposed to be giving kudos to Mike for this “great” financing deal?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 8, 2019 7:19:29 GMT -5
So you agree that there is a predator engaged in denying capital to Mannkind? It’s obvious isn’t it? Glad we can see eye to eye on something.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 8, 2019 7:22:59 GMT -5
OMG
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Post by awesomo on Nov 8, 2019 7:23:30 GMT -5
So you agree that there is a predator engaged in denying capital to Mannkind? It’s obvious isn’t it? Glad we can see eye to eye on something. Sorry you didn’t detect my sarcasm about the shorts being responsible for poor revenue growth. |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 8, 2019 7:55:11 GMT -5
So you agree that there is a predator engaged in denying capital to Mannkind? It’s obvious isn’t it? Glad we can see eye to eye on something. A “predator denying capital to MannKind?” I think you’re serious, can’t tell for sure. If the company were delivering results (aka growing revenue adequately), shorts would be getting torched. Shorts exist because of the company’s weak performance for years, it’s not the other way around. |
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2019 8:51:14 GMT -5
That said, this is better than the Deerfield Convenants. Have you read the Deerfield Covenants and compared them to the new ones? The new ones aren't any better and, in some ways, are more harsh. The real measure of a lender's covenants is how they are applied in the case of a default, which seems likely to happen unless Afrezza revenue hits a point of inflection to exponential growth. Covenants are always written to create a huge hammer that can be used to pound the debtor into paying, but Deerfield applied theirs is a fairly reasonable way for a hard money lender. Will Mid-Cap be as reasonable or will they be significant worse because, make no mistake, they are also a hard money lender. The problem is that you can't know how tough a hard money lender is going to be until after the default, and by then it is too late to do anything about it. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 8, 2019 13:01:05 GMT -5
So you agree that there is a predator engaged in denying capital to Mannkind? It’s obvious isn’t it? Glad we can see eye to eye on something. Sorry you didn’t detect my sarcasm about the shorts being responsible for poor revenue growth. Children ... play nicely or you will have to go to the corner. But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 8, 2019 16:36:27 GMT -5
There are no children at this table, my friend.
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Post by lakers on Nov 9, 2019 14:21:38 GMT -5
spencerosborne 8/9/19, 10:08 AM $MNKD I see the monthly MidCap minimum afrezza net revenue covenants as critical. The way I see it, it is very important for net revenue from Brazil to come in. In a perfect world, relying on Brazil would not be an issue. On US sales, I estimate that MNKD falls out of compliance by $1m in November, and is $3m out of compliance by the march 31 test. If that is the case, the $10m for tranche 2 cannot happen, and the interest rate on the $40m loan goes up by 2 points. By my estimation, a ramp in US sales is needed as well as a very good Brazil launch. Dont hate.. I am simply being realistic. MC already conceded that “I believe we have a strong relationship with MidCap, and we will successfully work together to resolve any issues that may rise throughout the term of our loan.” IMHO, MidCap is merely a bridge loan which tides Mnkd over until after 12/27/19 when the toxic 1.6 Warrants expire. Then UT, PEs like CG, JE May take an equity stake in Mnkd. They don’t want to be diluted by Warrants. MidCap loan may be used as a leverage in such negotiations. That could be why MC seems unconcerned, almost cavalier about covenants. Lone Star Value Management JE is Jeffrey Eberwein Founder & CEO United States Old Greenwich, CT Mnkd’s Danbury plant is in CT, 34.6 mi away from JE’s Office. He knows Mnkd. Cevian Capital is a Swedish investment firm founded in 1996 by Christer Gardell and Lars Förberg, both of whom serve as managing partners. Backed by Carl Icahn, it is the largest activist investment firm in Europe. It has offices in Stockholm, Zurich, and London. Hakan Edstrom, former Mnkd CEO, is a Swedish also. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11488/spencer-scripts-latest-wainwright-conference?page=2#ixzz64oc5X2Px |
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