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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2019 10:47:24 GMT -5
#6....In my opinion what we lack is funds and retention. It could be priced in, or there could be some downside to missing the covenants and MC using the ATM after he gets the shares back from the warrants that won’t be exercised. Getting some new blood on the board that can think outside of the box as far as a Afrezza. Compensation overhaul, strategic planning. Overseas deals. Too many asleep at the wheel and just going with the status quo. Getting the label change is going to affect the share price at the moment, but will it fix the retention ...highly doubtful. Input from Bill /Vdex on retention... Priceless 2021 $10🤞 That ship has sailed. Mike has blocked any new members with the latest announcement. No one connected to VDEX will be on MNKD's board. Like Mike said there is NOTHING that Bill or VDEX has shown that warrant a position. Show me 20-30 years of upper level Big Pharma managerial experience from anyone at VDEX to justify a seat. There is NONE. When did Mike say that? No one connected to VDEX will be on MNKD's board. Like Mike said there is NOTHING that Bill or VDEX has shown that warrant a position. Show me 20-30 years of upper level Big Pharma managerial experience from anyone at VDEX to justify a seat. There is NONE. Do you have a link to that statement?.. or is he privately emailing people and saying this? I just don’t remember hearing that. Thanks in advance. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 23, 2019 11:51:07 GMT -5
#6....In my opinion what we lack is funds and retention. It could be priced in, or there could be some downside to missing the covenants and MC using the ATM after he gets the shares back from the warrants that won’t be exercised. Getting some new blood on the board that can think outside of the box as far as a Afrezza. Compensation overhaul, strategic planning. Overseas deals. Too many asleep at the wheel and just going with the status quo. Getting the label change is going to affect the share price at the moment, but will it fix the retention ...highly doubtful. Input from Bill /Vdex on retention... Priceless 2021 $10🤞 That ship has sailed. Mike has blocked any new members with the latest announcement. No one connected to VDEX will be on MNKD's board. Like Mike said there is NOTHING that Bill or VDEX has shown that warrant a position. Show me 20-30 years of upper level Big Pharma managerial experience from anyone at VDEX to justify a seat. There is NONE. This makes no difference to at all to HfM. They were going to have to take seats away from the current directors last week and that is still the case. If HfM have the shares then it will happen - that's the nature of a proxy slate. As to the idea that pharma experience is necessary to be a board member, well that would rule out Kent Kresa and Ronald Consiglio. Right now what is needed on the board is business ability, not pharma experience. We have the board we do because Al wanted a passive board so he could run the show, and he had the shares to make it so. Unfortunately Al is no longer here but the supine board still largely is. The board should be holding the executives' feet to the fire and demanding measurable deliverables, not approving new bonuses because management missed their targets and wouldn't otherwise get a bonus. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 23, 2019 11:58:45 GMT -5
Can I change my vote to within 4 months? There are 3 catalysts that will propel the stock price in the near term (1H20). 1. Pediatric Phase 3 Trial Submission (Effect: $.75 increase) 2. New Classification (ULTRA) (Effect: $2.50 increase) (Possible Short Covering) 3. New Deal on Secret Molecule or New Drug Partnership (Poss. EPIHALE) (Effect: $1.50 increase) Just curious how you reason. In general things that are expected and happen don't effect stock price that greatly. In my mind the pediatric trial, while taking longer to get started than almost anyone wanted, is a known quantity since I don't believe anyone has any real doubts that Afrezza will work in children just as well as it does in adults as every other form of insulin has. What's your reason for thinking that would cause a 50% jump in share price... are you thinking there is some risk that ped trial will have bad outcome and thus good outcome will surprise? I know some believe a new adjective is a big deal despite the pk/pd already clearly being in prescribing lit, so on that one I'll just assume you're very very pro adjective. On the "secret molecule", TreT has not contributed anywhere close to $1.50 to share price. You think the new molecule will have more promise than TreT? |
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 23, 2019 12:11:40 GMT -5
There are 3 catalysts that will propel the stock price in the near term (1H20). 1. Pediatric Phase 3 Trial Submission (Effect: $.75 increase) 2. New Classification (ULTRA) (Effect: $2.50 increase) (Possible Short Covering) 3. New Deal on Secret Molecule or New Drug Partnership (Poss. EPIHALE) (Effect: $1.50 increase) Just curious how you reason. In general things that are expected and happen don't effect stock price that greatly. In my mind the pediatric trial, while taking longer to get started than almost anyone wanted, is a known quantity since I don't believe anyone has any real doubts that Afrezza will work in children just as well as it does in adults as every other form of insulin has. What's your reason for thinking that would cause a 50% jump in share price... are you thinking there is some risk that ped trial will have bad outcome and thus good outcome will surprise? I know some believe a new adjective is a big deal despite the pk/pd already clearly being in prescribing lit, so on that one I'll just assume you're very very pro adjective. On the "secret molecule", TreT has not contributed anywhere close to $1.50 to share price. You think the new molecule will have more promise than TreT? IF the adjective were to be accompanied by a new formal classification from the ADA and the FDA, it MAY open up opportunities for a new insurance classification which in turn would likely improve inclusion into additional formularies and in a better tier. Perhaps the new molecule, the new adjective, and TreT are the things keeping the sp at $1.20. I submit that the street is assigning a negative value to Afrezza at the moment, and it’s all the other stuff that’s stabilizing the sp. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 23, 2019 12:16:14 GMT -5
Vdex is just one answer. They aren’t getting any more samples than anyone else, in some cases less.. I’d like to know where you heard otherwise? Vdex’s retention is 80% better than Mannkind’s. There’s always people that for whatever reason cannot use Afrezza or can’t get insurance. Every time Mannkind gains in an Afrezza user.. they lose one. People are using more eight and 12 units which helps the revenue. We’ve been over time and time again why they lose them, that’s the part Vdex can help with. I chose two years in the pole also, but then Casper changed my mind:-) MNKD doesn't run clinics. Did you mean VDex retention is 80% better than the average for all doctors prescribing Afrezza? 80% better than the next best practice prescribing Afrezza? I would assume the retention rate for Afrezza varies a great deal among prescribers. While looking at long term script numbers it's hard to escape that there has been an overall attrition problem, we do know there are a small number of very well respected endos that believe in Afrezza that have now been prescribing a long time. Do you have some visibility into Afrezza retention beyond VDex other than trying to read the tea leaves of the Symphony numbers? Mannkind isn't in the same position as VDex and can't be. They can lead a horse (doctor) to water but can't force it to drink... not to mention having a bunch of FDA rules about the leading process. VDex employs the docs and sets prescribing policy. That's simply an issue of what roles each company plays. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 23, 2019 12:43:32 GMT -5
Just curious how you reason. In general things that are expected and happen don't effect stock price that greatly. In my mind the pediatric trial, while taking longer to get started than almost anyone wanted, is a known quantity since I don't believe anyone has any real doubts that Afrezza will work in children just as well as it does in adults as every other form of insulin has. What's your reason for thinking that would cause a 50% jump in share price... are you thinking there is some risk that ped trial will have bad outcome and thus good outcome will surprise? I know some believe a new adjective is a big deal despite the pk/pd already clearly being in prescribing lit, so on that one I'll just assume you're very very pro adjective. On the "secret molecule", TreT has not contributed anywhere close to $1.50 to share price. You think the new molecule will have more promise than TreT? IF the adjective were to be accompanied by a new formal classification from the ADA and the FDA, it MAY open up opportunities for a new insurance classification which in turn would likely improve inclusion into additional formularies and in a better tier. Perhaps the new molecule, the new adjective, and TreT are the things keeping the sp at $1.20. I submit that the street is assigning a negative value to Afrezza at the moment, and it’s all the other stuff that’s stabilizing the sp. If you mean ADA specifically calling out Afrezza as a preferred prandial insulin in their SOC... yes that would be huge and have big share price effect. However, the pk/pd is already there clear as day and obviously that didn't achieve the result. What is missing is the large scale trials showing clinically superior outcomes for the metric(s) considered relevant by ADA. Currently Afrezza is considered merely non-inferior (based on MNKD's own trials)... despite everyone, including FDA, agreeing it's pk/pd profile is faster both in and out. STAT was small and mixed results, since to show the half point A1c benefit they had to throw out patients that weren't compliant. If Afrezza were judged on Time In Range it starts looking better, but the medical community has not yet come to a consensus about it being a superior metric. In summary, there will still need to be significant new trials and lots of mindset changing within the medical community before there is any chance of ADA saying Afrezza is the preferred choice for prandial. And even if we get the trials and mindset change, there is still the not great situation that ADA is funded by BP, which may therefore be able to blunt any strong endorsement of Afrezza. Chance of ADA endorsing Afrezza as preferred within 4 months is basically zero. Give it four or five years, there is hope for at least something. In the meantime MNKD hopefully works with ADA for further improvements to at least have inhaled be on equal footing as RAA/injection in all relevant sections on prandial. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2019 13:38:17 GMT -5
Vdex is just one answer. They aren’t getting any more samples than anyone else, in some cases less.. I’d like to know where you heard otherwise? Vdex’s retention is 80% better than Mannkind’s. There’s always people that for whatever reason cannot use Afrezza or can’t get insurance. Every time Mannkind gains in an Afrezza user.. they lose one. People are using more eight and 12 units which helps the revenue. We’ve been over time and time again why they lose them, that’s the part Vdex can help with. I chose two years in the pole also, but then Casper changed my mind:-) MNKD doesn't run clinics. Did you mean VDex retention is 80% better than the average for all doctors prescribing Afrezza? 80% better than the next best practice prescribing Afrezza? I would assume the retention rate for Afrezza varies a great deal among prescribers. While looking at long term script numbers it's hard to escape that there has been an overall attrition problem, we do know there are a small number of very well respected endos that believe in Afrezza that have now been prescribing a long time. Do you have some visibility into Afrezza retention beyond VDex other than trying to read the tea leaves of the Symphony numbers? Mannkind isn't in the same position as VDex and can't be. They can lead a horse (doctor) to water but can't force it to drink... not to mention having a bunch of FDA rules about the leading process. VDex employs the docs and sets prescribing policy. That's simply an issue of what roles each company plays. Agree, but it’s also Vdex’s protocols. They use Afrezza differently, prescribe it in the way that they have found over the years to work best. But whether some protocols are off label or not yes Vdex is in the situation where they can and Mannkind cannot. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 23, 2019 14:22:01 GMT -5
If I may simplify, rather than get into detailed scenarios, Wall Street generally values most stock based upon actual (current) results in combination with its understanding of whether short- and near-term events will affect a company’s revenue.
In a nutshell, MNKD is valued where it is today because Wall Street doesn’t see any pivotal events on short/near-term horizon.
Frankly, management has only itself to blame for the poor (or lack of) company image and the continued erosion of share price (aka shareholder value).
The closest known events are the TreT clinical trial and the Afrezza Phase 3 pediatric trial and that’s not near-term by any means.
Everything else is entirely speculative because this company does a poor job of communicating its potential to the public. Wall Street will continue to under value this stock until that changes.
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Post by gamblerjag on Nov 23, 2019 14:50:29 GMT -5
👍🏻I agree and would also add Vdex expansion. $.50 $5.25😎 added to our dollar .25 current share price brings us to about $6.50 PPS I’d be good with that by may |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2019 15:15:30 GMT -5
That ship has sailed. Mike has blocked any new members with the latest announcement. No one connected to VDEX will be on MNKD's board. Like Mike said there is NOTHING that Bill or VDEX has shown that warrant a position. Show me 20-30 years of upper level Big Pharma managerial experience from anyone at VDEX to justify a seat. There is NONE. This makes no difference to at all to HfM. They were going to have to take seats away from the current directors last week and that is still the case. If HfM have the shares then it will happen - that's the nature of a proxy slate. As to the idea that pharma experience is necessary to be a board member, well that would rule out Kent Kresa and Ronald Consiglio. Right now what is needed on the board is business ability, not pharma experience. We have the board we do because Al wanted a passive board so he could run the show, and he had the shares to make it so. Unfortunately Al is no longer here but the supine board still largely is. The board should be holding the executives' feet to the fire and demanding measurable deliverables, not approving new bonuses because management missed their targets and wouldn't otherwise get a bonus. All Boards are crafted by the CEO and have a tilt towards their Ideas & Plans. Mike will eventually get his guys in there. And I'm sure the way Bill & VDEX are acting HE WILL NOT BE SELECTED. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2019 15:28:35 GMT -5
There are 3 catalysts that will propel the stock price in the near term (1H20). 1. Pediatric Phase 3 Trial Submission (Effect: $.75 increase) 2. New Classification (ULTRA) (Effect: $2.50 increase) (Possible Short Covering) 3. New Deal on Secret Molecule or New Drug Partnership (Poss. EPIHALE) (Effect: $1.50 increase) Just curious how you reason. In general things that are expected and happen don't effect stock price that greatly. In my mind the pediatric trial, while taking longer to get started than almost anyone wanted, is a known quantity since I don't believe anyone has any real doubts that Afrezza will work in children just as well as it does in adults as every other form of insulin has. What's your reason for thinking that would cause a 50% jump in share price... are you thinking there is some risk that ped trial will have bad outcome and thus good outcome will surprise? I know some believe a new adjective is a big deal despite the pk/pd already clearly being in prescribing lit, so on that one I'll just assume you're very very pro adjective. On the "secret molecule", TreT has not contributed anywhere close to $1.50 to share price. You think the new molecule will have more promise than TreT? Pediatric approval is the holy grail for Afrezza. Parents don't like using needles on their kids and Afrezza is much more forgiving than RAAs. Oh there are doubts especially with MNKD. Nothing is certain. The stock will start climbing and the PR will let Wall Street know approval is in process. Right now PEDS Filing or Approval is not factored in the stock price. The SHORTS are keeping the price depressed so once a PR is release about the PEDS it will change things. The New Classification is bigger than the PEDS Trial. You're talking about No Restrictions when it comes to Afrezza. This is a long haul to change but if they can it will be a game changer. Also the FDA will probably add Fiasp in the ULTRA Group. They generally don't like having one drug all by itself. It'll be up to Kendall to get it done. I'm also hoping Kendall and Mike are working on getting the BLACK BOX warning remove or LESSEN. Yes but that's not my thinking. MNKD will get more money (~$35M) for the new molecule and if you add the growing Afrezza sales and add'l $25M in milestones for TreT it will give Wall Street a better comfort level in MNKD's Balance Sheet. That will cause the stock price to rise. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2019 15:45:09 GMT -5
If I may simplify, rather than get into detailed scenarios, Wall Street generally values most stock based upon actual (current) results in combination with its understanding of whether short- and near-term events will affect a company’s revenue. In a nutshell, MNKD is valued where it is today because Wall Street doesn’t see any pivotal events on short/near-term horizon. Frankly, management has only itself to blame for the poor (or lack of) company image and the continued erosion of share price (aka shareholder value). The closest known events are the TreT clinical trial and the Afrezza Phase 3 pediatric trial and that’s not near-term by any means. Everything else is entirely speculative because this company does a poor job of communicating its potential to the public. Wall Street will continue to under value this stock until that changes. Yeah Wall Street didn't see Tesla's future when the stock was at $20. And they got BURNED by one earnings release. The stock jumped to over $250. Yeah Wall Street vision is not always 20/20 but HINDSIGHT IS. You can't blame Mike and Company. If you want to blame someone you can easily blame AL MANN or Martin Skreli for influencing the FDA to issue the Stupid Ass CRL. AL MANN took the easy road to Approval and I don't blame him. After 2 CRLs and > $1.5 Billion Dollars all he cared about was getting Afrezza approved. So MNKD was starting in last place at the Daytona 500. You can't cry over it but Mike is making the necessary changes to make Afrezza and MNKD a GLOBAL PHARMA COMPANY. That's why Sanofi bailed on Afrezza. There was too much heavy lifting involved and would have drained their resources. I bet after Mike gets all of the pieces in place Sanofi will be back and this time Mike will cut a MUCH MORE FAVORABLE DEAL. TreT News is 6-9 months away. It's too far away to count. Royalties are 12-18 months away at the earliest. Mike is not going to communicate until all problems are fixed. Why promote the company to Wall Street when they have work to do. Wall Street is NOT STUPID and that's why Mike has not really had a lot of Top Tier presentations. They need to knock down MORE ROADBLOCKS for Afrezza. It will in time. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 23, 2019 17:32:29 GMT -5
I appreciate your reply, although I don’t see the label as a roadblock to successfully positioning Afrezza to capture a substantial share of the insulin market. I see the current business plan (which the CEO seems to change every six months) as the roadblock.
Regardless, I appreciate your thoughts.
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Post by awesomo on Nov 23, 2019 19:03:44 GMT -5
As a longtime TSLA shareholder, I can promise you that the PPS never jumped from $20 to $250 off one earnings release.
Were there a lot of TSLA naysayers, of course, but they beat them by actually delivering results. Mike and Co have yet to do this.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 23, 2019 19:25:53 GMT -5
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