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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2014 14:34:37 GMT -5
...to get the best possible chance of a return that would possibly outperform the return on the S&P 500 52 weeks from now? Looking at the "risks" remaining on MNKD: 1) I would say missing sales projections but we couldn't get a number from Matt or Francois (sorry was it Pierre?) for that matter...., 2)no approval from other outside regulatory agencies, umm slim left town on that one now that SNY is handling that end of things... 3)Al's health (now this is an interesting one...because it can be looked at in a couple of ways if you include the perception that it would open up a higher probability of an outright sale), 4)issues getting this on as a tier 2 formulary (IMO the last remaining issue for any shorts to cling onto, which from my discussions with a couple of hospital pharmacists who are long the stock obviously don't see as an issue) 5) inability to meet supply due to demand (a possibility? but a good problem) 6) feel free to add yours where do you think the performance of this companies s/p will be relative to the S&P 1yr. from today? MNKD S/P = 7.48 as I type this SPY S/P 193.30 as I type this which one would you put 100k into today? You could project a price for each if you'd like....will be interesting to revisit one yr. from today after 2Q results come out. Btw, Jeff are you ready to list that property
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Post by chicagpete on Aug 12, 2014 14:46:23 GMT -5
My man Joey.....what happened to the technical support levels at 8.02 or the low 8's? Lol
i agree with you Joey......but I gambled on the value of afrezza right now via partnership or buyout......and didn't hit the home run(let alone a single or walk). I preferred to be short term......but am reluctantly going to hold until after super bowl.
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Post by realisticview on Aug 12, 2014 15:17:28 GMT -5
Would not put it into MNKD. I see no material events that will transpire for probably 9 months for Mannkind (that being Q1 report of Afrezza sales). There is a long time for shorts to manipulate this downward. The real key question becomes, "how do you justify the huge market cap MNKD carries"? Warren Buffet bought good companies with stellar management at a good price. MNKD is currently way overvalued, imho. I'd take a crack at buying MNKD in the $3's.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 12, 2014 15:36:36 GMT -5
Hopefully Sanofi takes the lead & promotes how they are going to take this to blockbuster status. If they drive this with promotion & advertising in all countries that they service we will be fine. The quiet stance MNKD has taken is not the answer for us longs. Look forward to Sanofi's vision & how they market this innovative product.....
PS...Hopefully a Super Bowl commercial is in the plan!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2014 15:43:52 GMT -5
My man Joey..... what happened to the technical support levels at 8.02 or the low 8's? Lol i agree with you Joey......but I gambled on the value of afrezza right now via partnership or buyout......and didn't hit the home run(let alone a single or walk). I preferred to be short term......but am reluctantly going to hold until after super bowl. It was broken, after being tested and holding for much of last week....it's also not usually good when you get "good" news and the stock behaves negatively....remains to be seen how the week ends. You are correct "you gambled" rather than invested, you were looking for a quick return on "the action", there is an old saying...you may get rich by selling, but you get wealthy by holding (ie., holding weekly spy puts for two more days . Every individual has their motives and needs (some may liquidate for a football season Lol) and some may think longer term for their future....you cringe when someone buys "a biotech" in their 401k, others may have done some due diligence and see "a company" with the potential for a very bright future....some thought Netflix would never make it against a behemoth like Blockbuster Video...I could go on but you stated what your short term goals were and why you sold half your position at a higher price (you left out why you sold out half your position at the low the day before Adcom) ....two questions for you 1) if you believe all the binary events are passed short term, and obviously we won't have any numbers to speak of until 1yr from now....then why even hold the other portion until Super Bowl?....2) have you been drinking on the plane? Lol talk soon
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Post by mannmade on Aug 12, 2014 15:51:52 GMT -5
Joey I like your thoughts about Mannkind... And as an investor I want to again state that I am a 3 to 5 year hold for this stock pending evolving events and developments as time passes... And secondly it is a 3 to 5 year hold for me because just as when I made my first investment I still believe in the science... So with that said I wanted to offer a few other insights that may or may not effect increase share price from current levels from now until January 2015 as there are really no more binary "catalysts" on schedule except for perhaps, announcement of insurance formulary acceptance and EU/Japanese NDA Filings (unless I have missed something) until we see real sales revenue developed. There could be announcements such as the first product has hit shelves, etc accompanied by some great stories... So here's the story short term until january 2015: 1.) FDA approved 2.) Sanofi Deal Done but not Fully Digested by the investment community nor Mannkind and Sanofi, e.g.: items such as costs/margins etc 3.) Matt mentioned the R&D costs will be coming off of mnkd's books and going to Sanofi's. This is their single biggest expense which will greatly reduce their monthly cost structure moving forward 4.) Mannkind is also getting a immediate cash revenue stream from the upfront payment so when combined with 3 above Mannkind may actually report a profit for 3rd Q pending actual dates for R&D Expense transfer and receipt of $150m upfront payment 5.) Mannkind has a huge carry forward loss of somewhere around 400m so likely not to be any major taxes on income received this year and next. While this may be trying to put as someone said a "silver lining" on the short term prospects I think it is worth noting that there is opportunity for some short term growth from where we are based on above. Also ever being the optimist (despite Baba's attempts to keep me grounded towards the dark side there is the chance of a technosphere announcement before the end of the year as well. That's my story and I am sticking to it... GLTA!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2014 15:55:41 GMT -5
Would not put it into MNKD. I see no material events that will transpire for probably 9 months for Mannkind (that being Q1 report of Afrezza sales). There is a long time for shorts to manipulate this downward. The real key question becomes, "how do you justify the huge market cap MNKD carries"? Warren Buffet bought good companies with stellar management at a good price. MNKD is currently way overvalued, imho. I'd take a crack at buying MNKD in the $3's. Ahh, my friend with the pre Adcom "gap" that needs to filled....hope you don't hold your breath waiting for that entry point "in the $3's" but taking your stance of "Would not put it into MNKD" list me one stock you would put it into to and we'll compare it one year from now with MNKD, that should be fairly easy for you. TIA
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 15:56:59 GMT -5
Mannmade... So can we sum up your stance on the week as "Nuts!" and "I have not yet begun to fight"?
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Post by mannmade on Aug 12, 2014 20:09:02 GMT -5
Mannmade... So can we sum up your stance on the week as "Nuts!" and "I have not yet begun to fight"? Yes you can... And on that front, or in the vein of the circumstances from which some very determined and brave men took victory from the jaws of defeat, I will mention to you something I was going to wait to discuss until I saw if I got a response... But here you go... I called Warren Buffett's office and spoke with his assistant. I was given an address to send (which I did today) a 3 page letter with lots of documentation supporting my premise that despite it's current market cap and valuation, Mannkind Corporation should be on his radar as a value based investment, which could double or triple his investment within 12 to 18 months, based on today's closing price. I believe Mannkind, although a bit unorthodox in terms of how he evaluates companies, to identify investment prospects (they are generally revenue generating and have objective numbers to value them against, e.g.: assets, debt, revenue, margins, category underperformance, etc...,) is still a company that would make sense to him both as a practical investment with potential returns in the range he is accustomed to receiving and has a moral value and story that makes it also a feel good investment. And I do believe he and Al know each other... We shall see... But I will not give up on Mannkind nor Mankind... I believe... in the science and the good...
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 12, 2014 21:33:05 GMT -5
Mannmade,
I don't think Buffet will be interested in Mannkind for a variety of reasons, first biotech isn't his thing, second Mannkind has only one product (no matter how good it is) and one that a shelf life (10-15years?), third Mannkind even after Afrezza hits blockbuster status the company won't be large enough to move the needle.
That said, his company did buy shares in IBM and he's typically avoided tech, but the investment isn't doing that well.
On the other hand, biotech companies the size of Sanofi would benefit from deeper pockets and not having to answer to shareholders for immediate returns.
I do think after Afrezza becomes a blockbuster Sanofi intends to purchase Mannkind. I wouldn't own Mannkind on that potential because it would probably go for $25-30 a share (no exactly a home run).
I'll stay in MNKD because it will be a good five year investment.
Could Mannkind be bought out for $50 sure...but until we see a pipeline...
I'm looking at Mannkind as bring in $1B a year (from the partnership) within 3-4 year and that's after going global with Afrezza.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 13, 2014 0:14:19 GMT -5
Would not put it into MNKD. I see no material events that will transpire for probably 9 months for Mannkind (that being Q1 report of Afrezza sales). There is a long time for shorts to manipulate this downward. The real key question becomes, "how do you justify the huge market cap MNKD carries"? Warren Buffet bought good companies with stellar management at a good price. MNKD is currently way overvalued, imho. I'd take a crack at buying MNKD in the $3's. Ahh, my friend with the pre Adcom "gap" that needs to filled....hope you don't hold your breath waiting for that entry point "in the $3's" but taking your stance of "Would not put it into MNKD" list me one stock you would put it into to and we'll compare it one year from now with MNKD, that should be fairly easy for you. TIA Heck, realistic, you ought to put the $100,000 in against a short sale of MNKD, you'll do fine, as I'm sure you have recently, congratulations.
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Post by zieg on Aug 13, 2014 0:54:48 GMT -5
mannmade, I love that you reached out to WB!!! That's awesome!!! Kudos to you!!
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Post by saeedabroad on Aug 13, 2014 2:15:07 GMT -5
Nice question!
If I had a 100k... I'd wait until the dust settled. The overall market is a bit uncertain, and testing key support levels. There are no new buyers stepping in and most are holding. This can be seen by the lower daily volumes in SPY over the last days. The small bounce in the SPY this week was on the back of low volumes too.
I don't see a crash by any means, but sometimes the best thing to do, is to do nothing - but as humans we find that an excessively hard proposition.
Personally, I'm waiting for Opex and perhaps Putin to show his final card before investing any more. I believe there are many bargains out there, but missing the bottom and losing out on the subsequent bounce by 5% is hardly a concern. The only thing you get when searching for bottoms, is sticky fingers....
- I'm looking to add to MNKD but will wait a week to see how it handles 7. My worst downside case scenario is 6.77. (Is it possible to post charts here? Happy to share). - I think the SPY is flirting with a top and once the QR tap is firmly closed, could see additional downward pressure as interest rates begin to increase within the next 12 months.
Good luck.
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Post by liane on Aug 13, 2014 4:38:41 GMT -5
saeed, Yes you can post a chart, or any other image. Use the "Reply" button (on the right side of the reply box), not the "Post Quick Reply" button in the lower left of the box. This will bring up the full suite of reply options. There is an icon for "Post Image".
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Post by saeedabroad on Aug 13, 2014 6:22:36 GMT -5
Thank you, will do so shortly.
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