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Post by mannmade on Aug 13, 2014 10:01:04 GMT -5
Mannmade, I don't think Buffet will be interested in Mannkind for a variety of reasons, first biotech isn't his thing, second Mannkind has only one product (no matter how good it is) and one that a shelf life (10-15years?), third Mannkind even after Afrezza hits blockbuster status the company won't be large enough to move the needle.
That said, his company did buy shares in IBM and he's typically avoided tech, but the investment isn't doing that well. On the other hand, biotech companies the size of Sanofi would benefit from deeper pockets and not having to answer to shareholders for immediate returns. I do think after Afrezza becomes a blockbuster Sanofi intends to purchase Mannkind. I wouldn't own Mannkind on that potential because it would probably go for $25-30 a share (no exactly a home run). I'll stay in MNKD because it will be a good five year investment. Could Mannkind be bought out for $50 sure...but until we see a pipeline... I'm looking at Mannkind as bring in $1B a year (from the partnership) within 3-4 year and that's after going global with Afrezza. seanismorris, I do understand the reasoning to your response regarding my reaching out to WB. But as I point out in my note to the board above, I admit that Mannkind is a bit of an unorthodox value play for him by traditional evaluations. I understand such traditional analysis for making valuations for investing in value play companies where the profit is actually "built into the deal upfront." After conducting your DD you pencil in the numbers before making your offer. I believe I mentioned some of the issues that are reviewed when structuring these types of deals/investments. Nonetheless, I believe at it's current valuation/market cap Mannkind is a great buy and a great value even with no objective historical numbers or traditional analysis by which to make a traditional valuation. I honestly believe an investment today however, will return two to three times the amount of investment made today within the next 12 to 18 months. And that my friend is an investment I would make any day of the week. Let's review the facts for the umpteenth time... 1.) All the biggest risk factors have been removed with no more cash issues, FDA approval and partnership announcement. 2.) Pricing, cost control, margins, education (to medical community, insurance companies, patient population), formulary adoption/listing, sales/distribution/paieint adoption, foreign approvals are the remaining factors that will serve to check the ultimate success of Afrezza. After what we have been through and now with Sanofi, (the 5th Largest Global BP and 1st in Sales for Diabetes Care) none of the issues appear to be anywhere as near risky as they were pre-partnership. 3.) FDA approved production facility is up and running, staff basically trained and ready to go. 4.) R&D costs transfer off Mnkd Books to Sanofi and Mnkd to receive $150m, which means as I have stated before Mannkind should show it's first revenue with profit this next 3Q report if transfer of R&D related expenses and revenue are both booked for 3rd Q. This is important as we will not have to wait until end of 1st Q/2nd Q 2015 to show profit. And this will be Mannkind's first! That should give shareholders a bit of an emotional lift if not the actual share price and the Funds will notice... because as we all know on Wall Street Profit is a good thing... 5.) Also combine #4 above with the 400m carry forward tax loss that Mnkd can now begin to take use of and you have a very high "margin" on the revenue for the next few years. 6.) They now begin to write down the Danbury facility also a good thing for the P/L 7.) Also I am not sure of the terms or milestones but a year or two ago they licensed part of their oncology research for 130m which should begin to kick in soon 8.) Mannkind in the next 12 to 18 months is likely to announce other deals or products that generate revenues outside of Afrezza. I expect (but honestly have no supporting evidence) that they will release the flu vaccine and one to three technosphere licensing/royalty deals in this time. 8.) I also expect that in the next 12 to 18 months Mannkind will reach several of the milestones that lead to the 795m (may have misquoted the exact number as this is off the top of my head). Let's just say they reach 250m worth... 9.) with the 08.15.14 conversion of the 100m note Mannkind will be relatively debt free as the own all of their real estate outright including not only Danbury but corp HQ in Valencia. By this time next year Mnkd should be flush with cash, have a buzz on launch of Afrezza, talking about other products, and Technosphere deals etc and could very well become one of the "darlings" of Wall Street... Now in the spirit of full disclosure... Baba has made me a believer in the power of the "dark side forces" on Wall Street, so I candidly do not think the 1st Q of actual sales revenue reporting (whether 1st or 2nd Q 2015) will blow anyone away as I do think the adoption will be slower than one might have originally hoped for. However, I do believe that by the time Afrezza has been on the market a full year, the word will be out and we will have a Blockbuster in the making... (If you ever doubt this all you have to do is go back and listen to the testimony given by actual patients at the ADCOM to remind yourself of how good and not fully understood the value of Afrezza really is) Hence the 12 to 18 month timeframe for my 'Value Investment" thesis on Mannkind Corporation. And the above essentially encapsulates the argument with supporting documents that I made in my letter to WB... Now WB may decide it is not the right investment for him and that is fine, but I do think I have made a credible argument for why Mannkind is a nontraditional/unorthodox value investment... And I continue to acquire at these price levels... Lastly, a story as to why I did this, aside from my refusal to sit by and do nothing why we take it in the shorts... (excuse my French and no pun intended) from the shorts... My grandfather who is now deceased, was an advid investor in the stock market and watched every day until the day he died when he was 98. When he was in his early 90's, he wrote a note to Warren Buffett explaining how he had become very successful in investing by reading about and following the techniques Warren Buffett used in his own investment strategies. Warren Buffett wrote back to my grandfather and among other things said to him that he was happy to be his mentor and that he hoped he himself would be as actively involved with his investments when he reached my grandfather's age. I believe Warren was then in his early 70's. My grandfather kept that note with him until the day he died and now it hangs framed in my house... Two great men in my life...
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 13, 2014 10:32:04 GMT -5
Warren Buffett wrote back to my grandfather and among other things said to him that he was happy to be his mentor and that he hoped he himself would be as actively involved with his investments when he reached my grandfather's age. I believe Warren was then in his early 70's. My grandfather kept that note with him until the day he died and now it hangs framed in my house... Two great men in my life... Didn't want to repost the whole thing but what a great post, you hit the points of why I am selling one of my investment properties and adding to my position, there is no way IMO that the property will appreciate as much as this stock will in the next 12-18 mos. Again, this is my personal opinion as well and my risk tolerance is way different to a lot of people so this is something that I am doing for myself and not suggesting everyone run out and liquidate other asset classes
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Post by zieg on Aug 13, 2014 11:33:46 GMT -5
mannmade , It doesn't surprise me that WB wrote your grandfather. Taking a look at Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, we see "Self Actualization". When a "WB" helps other's to achieve their own Self Actualization, there is a level of achievement beyond what the traditional model shows and helps them to reach their own "top of the pyramid". Not to get into all kinds of psycho babble, but in my own personal life, very often it's not the people that are climbing the mountain that are the easiest to access. I've see that the people at the very top often are quicker to return calls, emails and grab a cup of coffee vs the people who are struggling to get there. When I was just starting my career, I used to work for a company owned by a self made Billionaire. I'd leave him a message and usually I'd get a returned call within 24 hours no matter where in the world he was. Whereas, had I left a message for someone in middle management, it might take them a few days to a week to get back to me. I think the guys in the 1% (like Al, get a kick out of helping others achieve their dreams). One piece of advise for those that aspire to run their own companies that my company's owner shared with me. "It takes just as much time to run a small company as it does an empire". Good luck to all!!! (Enjoy the "sale" while we can
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 13, 2014 11:34:32 GMT -5
Didn't want to repost the whole thing but what a great post, you hit the points of why I am selling one of my investment properties and adding to my position, there is no way IMO that the property will appreciate as much as this stock will in the next 12-18 mos. Again, this is my personal opinion as well and my risk tolerance is way different to a lot of people so this is something that I am doing for myself and not suggesting everyone run out and liquidate other asset classes Many of us may be in the position of wanting to accumulate more. I need to replace some out of the money calls that appear to be permanently out of the money. I'm interested in peoples' ideas for prices and strategies for building one's position between now and ? Shares, options, warrants ?
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Post by mannmade on Aug 13, 2014 11:34:49 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans, I don't have anywhere near your technical grasp of the data btw, so thank you for your comments, notes and updates in that area as I find them very helpful.
As far as the rest of the story... I think you and I may just be in lock step... Thank you for your kind words... I know there are others out there who see the real value of Mannkind, as I believe most on this board are long term investors and do believe in the science as I do... However, in moments of frustration born of unmet expectations, no matter how well planned for... sometimes it just takes a minute to remember what we stand for... and aside from the quick hit (well after five years of holding, not really so quick a hit) I / we were all expecting after the Adcom/FDA/Partnership announcements... there has been some disappointment, but time to get past it and look to the future once again... When we have to deal with adversity, we fight and perhaps we give ourselves time to feel sorry for ourselves and/or grieve and then we move on... or else we just become a victim to our pity party... (Please note this is NOT directed at anyone on this board, it is just my own personal philosophy of how I view life). So as John Paul Jones once said...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 13, 2014 12:36:57 GMT -5
7.) Also I am not sure of the terms or milestones but a year or two ago they licensed part of their oncology research for 130m which should begin to kick in soon 8.) Mannkind in the next 12 to 18 months is likely to announce other deals or products that generate revenues outside of Afrezza. I expect (but honestly have no supporting evidence) that they will release the flu vaccine and one to three technosphere licensing/royalty deals in this time. These are two items in which I'd be interested in more details. - What were the terms of the oncology license? I was a bit disappointed that nothing was said about the oncology pipeline. Are key people still with the company or did the pipeline basically get dismantled beyond the point of return? - When you say "release" regarding the flu vaccine, does that mean there is a way it could go through whatever approval process is needed for sales to occur in 12-18 months?
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Post by mannmade on Aug 13, 2014 13:53:34 GMT -5
dreambatcruise, the oncology deal was done as Mannkind had a very robust oncology research department but had to shutter it due to cost cutting necessary to focus on getting Afrezza to market. I am not sure if they will reinvest in building up this area post Afrezza launch as I once asked matt and he was not sure at the time. However I do recall they licensed their research for 130m in milestone payments that I think were expected to start kicking in about two years from time deal was inked which would be about now.
As for the flu vaccine, this is what I know...
1.) A special inhaler called Cricket has been developed for it's use by patients 2,) It does not have to be refrigerated which is good for 3rd World Distribution with no electricity hence no refrigeration 3.) One time usage 4.) No needles to dispose of
Don't know how ready it is for commercialization but the way it has previously mentioned it did not sound that far off... I am going to be following up with Matt P about this once the noise dies down from the recent activity and Mannkind has had a chance to get back to some semi normality with the beginning of the integration and activation of the next several phases necessary to getting Afrezza to market. I will follow up and let you know...
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 5, 2015 6:56:47 GMT -5
Warren Buffett wrote back to my grandfather and among other things said to him that he was happy to be his mentor and that he hoped he himself would be as actively involved with his investments when he reached my grandfather's age. I believe Warren was then in his early 70's. My grandfather kept that note with him until the day he died and now it hangs framed in my house... Two great men in my life... Didn't want to repost the whole thing but what a great post, you hit the points of why I am selling one of my investment properties and adding to my position, there is no way IMO that the property will appreciate as much as this stock will in the next 12-18 mos. Again, this is my personal opinion as well and my risk tolerance is way different to a lot of people so this is something that I am doing for myself and not suggesting everyone run out and liquidate other asset classes Ughh!! Ok Liane, I'm giving in....I will now enter the "postaholic zone" ...I vowed if it got to that point I would pull in the reigns as there is something about that label that just doesn't seem flattering (to me anyway ...so I held out a whopping two days but with the sale of the aforementioned investment prop. now finalized I am happy to say what I will be doing with the proceeds to see how it tracks with the average appreciation of the property over the next 12-18 mos. So yesterday I started by adding 100 Jan'17 leap calls at the 3 strike, bought for 3.20, one third down as they say two thirds to go...if and when they are able to make another push/leg down I will stand ready, that is if I don't use it for other opportunities in the interim. However, I would be content with my current total position if I decide to diversify a little bit like say SNY lol if you can call that diversification. My son has been begging me to establish a position in NVS as he is convinced they are the bell weather for cancer immunotherapy going forward and the others are still wannabe's (ie.,KITE and JUNO)...at this point I think I will sit things out on those bigger caps as the whole sector is feeling/looking a bit frothy to me while our little pearl here is just the opposite as undervalued and at the same time under appreciated. So to throw in a sprinkling of TA right now the XBI is at an all time high while it is very overbought and way high above its major moving averages....so much so I feel like a pullback is imminent if nothing else to relieve some of that overbought condition. Oh yeah, one more thing I should mention...as of pre open IB currently showing: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 900'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Usually in the recent past when we saw this number climb to near 1m shares, it would follow with selling pressure over the next day or two, so perhaps maybe I should have waited on those leaps another day or two lol...
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Post by liane on Mar 5, 2015 7:13:46 GMT -5
joey,
I wouldn't want to miss out on your posts. So I upped the number of posts to merit "postaholic". Maybe I'll have to think up some new levels over the weekend.
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 5, 2015 7:48:41 GMT -5
Didn't want to repost the whole thing but what a great post, you hit the points of why I am selling one of my investment properties and adding to my position, there is no way IMO that the property will appreciate as much as this stock will in the next 12-18 mos. Again, this is my personal opinion as well and my risk tolerance is way different to a lot of people so this is something that I am doing for myself and not suggesting everyone run out and liquidate other asset classes Ughh!! Ok Liane, I'm giving in....I will now enter the "postaholic zone" ...I vowed if it got to that point I would pull in the reigns as there is something about that label that just doesn't seem flattering (to me anyway ...so I held out a whopping two days but with the sale of the aforementioned investment prop. now finalized I am happy to say what I will be doing with the proceeds to see how it tracks with the average appreciation of the property over the next 12-18 mos. So yesterday I started by adding 100 Jan'17 leap calls at the 3 strike, bought for 3.20, one third down as they say two thirds to go...if and when they are able to make another push/leg down I will stand ready, that is if I don't use it for other opportunities in the interim. However, I would be content with my current total position if I decide to diversify a little bit like say SNY lol if you can call that diversification. My son has been begging me to establish a position in NVS as he is convinced they are the bell weather for cancer immunotherapy going forward and the others are still wannabe's (ie.,KITE and JUNO)...at this point I think I will sit things out on those bigger caps as the whole sector is feeling/looking a bit frothy to me while our little pearl here is just the opposite as undervalued and at the same time under appreciated. So to throw in a sprinkling of TA right now the XBI is at an all time high while it is very overbought and way high above its major moving averages....so much so I feel like a pullback is imminent if nothing else to relieve some of that overbought condition. Oh yeah, one more thing I should mention...as of pre open IB currently showing: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 900'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Usually in the recent past when we saw this number climb to near 1m shares, it would follow with selling pressure over the next day or two, so perhaps maybe I should have waited on those leaps another day or two lol... I've been checking IB a few times this morning...showing N/A each time. Strange that it's telling you 900K.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 5, 2015 9:04:53 GMT -5
joey, I wouldn't want to miss out on your posts. So I upped the number of posts to merit "postaholic". Maybe I'll have to think up some new levels over the weekend. In addition to activity/participation labels, maybe you administrators could put you heads together to determine if it would be useful for board members to be able to add a second "sentiment" emoticon to our profiles? Liane has posted a few recently that could be included on the list...
- Exuberant pumper
- Long
- Short
- Debbie Downer
Your loyal subject (or is it subjugated?),
MnHoldem
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2015 9:17:32 GMT -5
Would not put it into MNKD. I see no material events that will transpire for probably 9 months for Mannkind (that being Q1 report of Afrezza sales). There is a long time for shorts to manipulate this downward. The real key question becomes, "how do you justify the huge market cap MNKD carries"? Warren Buffet bought good companies with stellar management at a good price. MNKD is currently way overvalued, imho. I'd take a crack at buying MNKD in the $3's. Thank you for the contribution, jay Olsen.
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Post by liane on Mar 5, 2015 9:19:32 GMT -5
joey, I wouldn't want to miss out on your posts. So I upped the number of posts to merit "postaholic". Maybe I'll have to think up some new levels over the weekend. In addition to activity/participation labels, maybe you administrators could put you heads together to determine if it would be useful for board members to be able to add a second "sentiment" emoticon to our profiles? Liane has posted a few recently that could be included on the list...
- Exuberant pumper
- Long
- Short
- Debbie Downer
Your loyal subject (or is it subjugated?),
MnHoldem
Well, you can now include one of those choices in your profile.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 5, 2015 9:20:09 GMT -5
Let's review the facts for the umpteenth time... 4.) R&D costs transfer off Mnkd Books to Sanofi and Mnkd to receive $150m, which means as I have stated before Mannkind should show it's first revenue with profit this next 3Q report if transfer of R&D related expenses and revenue are both booked for 3rd Q. This is important as we will not have to wait until end of 1st Q/2nd Q 2015 to show profit. And this will be Mannkind's first! That should give shareholders a bit of an emotional lift if not the actual share price and the Funds will notice... because as we all know on Wall Street Profit is a good thing... Mannmade,
Based on the wording that boldface (above)I assume your list was copied/pasted from being posted a few quarters ago? Item 4 fits nicely into the camp where I had once pitched my tent, until Matt failed to disclose the "significantly different" financials he had suggested (about 6 months ago) that we would see in 3Q14 or 4Q14.
Or did you mean to write "...end of 1st Q / 2nd Q 2016 to show profit"? These days, I am leaning more toward the opinion that MannKind will utilize deferred payments to continue filing improved Q2Q EPS until the quarter we finally show a profit, which I too believe could cause a bump in sentiment and share price.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 5, 2015 9:27:16 GMT -5
Excellent! As you can see, I have updated my sentiment, although I may make occasional recommendations to add to the list.
Four choices doesn't seem sufficient for such a fine and diverse group as what posts here at ProBoards.
Disclaimer: My sentiment may change on occasion, based on volume of alcohol consumed.
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