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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 9, 2015 17:44:34 GMT -5
I already have Jan '17 $7 calls, but the bid/ask on the $3 looks great. It's just a shame I don't have any investment property to unload (chuckle). It's effectively almost like a twofer ....at 2700 now for every 1k equivalent of shares you pay about half for the same exposure, what's even better for those that have limited funds, they don't have to worry about any margin calls with cash options (providing they are not margined already elsewhere)....just causes them (option specialists/MM's) to have to hedge that much more when the shares get called as I can't see any long selling them as covered for a two year period to gain .35....that would be the equivalent of the lunacy of spending 30% interest to carry the borrowed shares at this point imo...of course if you have LFD or his "social circle" as friends..who needs enemies right? The "air" articles/downgrades, etc have taken the volatility down enough on those calls to almost ridiculous levels. Reading the original launch of Lantus really lends one to understand what is involved in transforming/educating the status quo to revolutionary new therapies (see Tripoly's thread mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1921/early-lantus-pre-launch-info ) which when one thinks about it, really could parallel the launch of Afrezza and the dynamics of acceptance and dominance in it's class. Coming full circle, the ability to get 2:1 leverage for almost 2yrs. is as we say in sports betting +++EV (risk/reward from an expected value standpoint) that is too good for this sports bettor to pass up jmho
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 9, 2015 18:21:40 GMT -5
I already have Jan '17 $7 calls, but the bid/ask on the $3 looks great. It's just a shame I don't have any investment property to unload (chuckle). It's effectively almost like a twofer ....at 2700 now for every 1k equivalent of shares you pay about half for the same exposure, what's even better for those that have limited funds, they don't have to worry about any margin calls with cash options (providing they are not margined already elsewhere)....just causes them (option specialists/MM's) to have to hedge that much more when the shares get called as I can't see any long selling them as covered for a two year period to gain .35....that would be the equivalent of the lunacy of spending 30% interest to carry the borrowed shares at this point imo...of course if you have LFD or his "social circle" as friends..who needs enemies right? The "air" articles/downgrades, etc have taken the volatility down enough on those calls to almost ridiculous levels. Reading the original launch of Lantus really lends one to understand what is involved in transforming/educating the status quo to revolutionary new therapies (see Tripoly's thread mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1921/early-lantus-pre-launch-info ) which when one thinks about it, really could parallel the launch of Afrezza and the dynamics of acceptance and dominance in it's class. Coming full circle, the ability to get 2:1 leverage for almost 2yrs. is as we say in sports betting +++EV (risk/reward from an expected value standpoint) that is too good for this sports bettor to pass up jmho Shh!!! Stop talking about good they are or everyone will buy then and push the bid/ask up! (At least wait until I buy mine hopefully tomorrow!)
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Post by pktrump on Mar 9, 2015 18:29:31 GMT -5
Joey
Thanks for your insight on options and TA.
What are the most important parameters you are considering when picking 2017 in the money calls;
The Bid/ask of 2.65/2.70 for 3$ 2017 is tight, so suggesting very active option. ?
Do you look at implied volatility (IV) and the historical IV data to look at whether currently at the low or high end of the range?
I am a LT buy and holder, especially when noone else seems to want the shares. I am attracted to the cheaper out of the money calls but never the pull the trigger, and I am glad I havent thus far.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 9, 2015 18:55:56 GMT -5
It's effectively almost like a twofer ....at 2700 now for every 1k equivalent of shares you pay about half for the same exposure, what's even better for those that have limited funds, they don't have to worry about any margin calls with cash options (providing they are not margined already elsewhere)....just causes them (option specialists/MM's) to have to hedge that much more when the shares get called as I can't see any long selling them as covered for a two year period to gain .35....that would be the equivalent of the lunacy of spending 30% interest to carry the borrowed shares at this point imo...of course if you have LFD or his "social circle" as friends..who needs enemies right? The "air" articles/downgrades, etc have taken the volatility down enough on those calls to almost ridiculous levels. Reading the original launch of Lantus really lends one to understand what is involved in transforming/educating the status quo to revolutionary new therapies (see Tripoly's thread mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1921/early-lantus-pre-launch-info ) which when one thinks about it, really could parallel the launch of Afrezza and the dynamics of acceptance and dominance in it's class. Coming full circle, the ability to get 2:1 leverage for almost 2yrs. is as we say in sports betting +++EV (risk/reward from an expected value standpoint) that is too good for this sports bettor to pass up jmho Shh!!! Stop talking about good they are or everyone will buy then and push the bid/ask up! (At least wait until I buy mine hopefully tomorrow!) LOL!! Somehow I don't think you need to worry about that happening...it didn't happen when I bought puts on Freddie Mac when it was in the low to mid 60's and trickled down to 55, thought I was making a score...never in my wildest did I think the second biggest agency behind the backbone of our mortgage industry would become a penny stock!! In any case, most that I told back then didn't heed any warning about what was just around the corner...thanks again Angelo!!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 9, 2015 20:02:04 GMT -5
Joey Thanks for your insight on options and TA. What are the most important parameters you are considering when picking 2017 in the money calls; The Bid/ask of 2.65/2.70 for 3$ 2017 is tight, so suggesting very active option. ? Do you look at implied volatility (IV) and the historical IV data to look at whether currently at the low or high end of the range? I am a LT buy and holder, especially when noone else seems to want the shares. I am attracted to the cheaper out of the money calls but never the pull the trigger, and I am glad I havent thus far. PK, I don't put any "normal" parameters around the options/derivatives of this equity as to me it is a creature unique unto itself and not your run of the mill situation. Normally the IV would/should p/u if there were a normal "bearish" tilt going on, but conversely the premiums are tightening and are thin relative to the time element. Don't ask me about the "greeks" (think I'll leave that to Spiro), but as you stated previously in a prior post....stick to your convictions and what you know. I have been at this long enough to know A) stay away from short term options with much bigger forces than me at play here...thus the reason I chose '17s as opposed to '16s as the extra 12 mos for the difference in cost was effectively a bargain in my eyes B) with all the milestones reached to date and a soft launch barely a month old that has gotten amazing results which were "hidden" due to trials designed to almost fail, that C) reinforce those very same convictions you talk about, so in turn, I want all the leverage I can get for as cheap as possible and as long as possible. Can they get cheaper, very possible and good luck in trying to time that...however, the last group of these I purchased went up 25% in the last leg up and quickly the spreads moved higher as well. That tells me there was a bit of a chase or scramble, almost like a test run for when the "real deal" comes. Right now, it looks like this could stay range bound for a bit but in the past when I felt complacent and in no need to rush, inevitably that is when other ones in the "conviction" hopper would swiftly take off and the chase would commence or they would "get away" while waiting for them to come back in. At this point, I am almost in the camp that it would not surprise me of someone at some point joining the likes of those below, listverse.com/2008/03/24/top-10-rogue-traders/ maybe not at such crazy levels but still relatively rogue IMO...looking at #4 on the list reminds me of a certain pedophile that is still out there somewhere, like I said recently...this one should make barbarians at the gate seem like childs play in the end...(hopefully sometime before 1/17
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 9, 2015 22:34:33 GMT -5
pktrump,
I think you also want to take a close look at the liquidity of the call before you buy it. For example, look at the 2017 $3 that Joey bought. It has a decent open interest (number of open contracts) but as you move to the 2017 $2 you see much less interest. I happen to agree with Joey that the money is made in selling the premiums. I can control $3-$5 million in MNKD shares through options, but I could not afford to buy them all, unless I did a same-day substitution (essentially a broker-assisted buy/sell transaction).
However, if you pick a call that has very low open interest, that means you could eventually face the unpleasant reality that there may not be any interested buyers when the time comes when you decide to sell your contracts. Lots to consider. Buying way out of the money enables you to purchase massive amounts of options, which I would consider doing if I was convinced a buyout was imminent. I'm simply not convinced it is. Regardless, one of the factors you should always consider is liquidity.
Good fortune to you.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 10, 2015 11:51:19 GMT -5
It's effectively almost like a twofer ....at 2700 now for every 1k equivalent of shares you pay about half for the same exposure, what's even better for those that have limited funds, they don't have to worry about any margin calls with cash options (providing they are not margined already elsewhere)....just causes them (option specialists/MM's) to have to hedge that much more when the shares get called as I can't see any long selling them as covered for a two year period to gain .35....that would be the equivalent of the lunacy of spending 30% interest to carry the borrowed shares at this point imo...of course if you have LFD or his "social circle" as friends..who needs enemies right? The "air" articles/downgrades, etc have taken the volatility down enough on those calls to almost ridiculous levels. Reading the original launch of Lantus really lends one to understand what is involved in transforming/educating the status quo to revolutionary new therapies (see Tripoly's thread mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1921/early-lantus-pre-launch-info ) which when one thinks about it, really could parallel the launch of Afrezza and the dynamics of acceptance and dominance in it's class. Coming full circle, the ability to get 2:1 leverage for almost 2yrs. is as we say in sports betting +++EV (risk/reward from an expected value standpoint) that is too good for this sports bettor to pass up jmho Shh!!! Stop talking about good they are or everyone will buy then and push the bid/ask up! (At least wait until I buy mine hopefully tomorrow!) Agree with your post that was in Spiro's thread, didn't want to get that thread off on a tangent anymore than it has so responding here....did you get your calls today? I was torn between adding more this morning, BUT SNY looks like it might test some major support in the 45.50 area and was thinking it is on sale as well...also as an aside looking to possibly p/u some NVS in the 92-93 area if it can make it down there to fill a gap...thinking the biotechs will continue to correct a bit here as they got pretty far away from the MA's...except MNKD which is relatively holding up well as it has already been oversold in this downleg
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 10, 2015 12:19:31 GMT -5
Shh!!! Stop talking about good they are or everyone will buy then and push the bid/ask up! (At least wait until I buy mine hopefully tomorrow!) Agree with your post that was in Spiro's thread, didn't want to get that thread off on a tangent anymore than it has so responding here....did you get your calls today? I was torn between adding more this morning, BUT SNY looks like it might test some major support in the 45.50 area and was thinking it is on sale as well...also as an aside looking to possibly p/u some NVS in the 92-93 area if it can make it down there to fill a gap...thinking the biotechs will continue to correct a bit here as they got pretty far away from the MA's...except MNKD which is relatively holding up well as it has already been oversold in this downleg So I transferred money LAST Thursday and still not cleared! I would have definitely bought some today...I'll certainly have the funds on Wednesday to see if I can still get the Jan '17 $3 below your price! ($2.85) What do you make of the volume in the Jan '16/17 calls today (ITM & OTM)? Volume seemed pretty high (this morning) when the price dropped hard this morning. Bottom fishing? So we tested the $5.10-$5.20 range and passed...for now. Giving that the shorts are dropping the price hard each morning, you can't be 100% certain that today's low won't be tested again. Then again, ask me if I thought we'd be at this price a month ago and I'd have said NO WAY!!!
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 10, 2015 13:16:15 GMT -5
Yup. Same here, did the transfer on Friday, calling the broker today to see where it was. Was hitting 5.13 when I was calling. Thought we might be seeing it break 5 and wanted another 1k fix real bad.
OOG
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 11, 2015 7:01:39 GMT -5
Shh!!! Stop talking about good they are or everyone will buy then and push the bid/ask up! (At least wait until I buy mine hopefully tomorrow!) Agree with your post that was in Spiro's thread, didn't want to get that thread off on a tangent anymore than it has so responding here....did you get your calls today? I was torn between adding more this morning, BUT SNY looks like it might test some major support in the 45.50 area and was thinking it is on sale as well...also as an aside looking to possibly p/u some NVS in the 92-93 area if it can make it down there to fill a gap...thinking the biotechs will continue to correct a bit here as they got pretty far away from the MA's...except MNKD which is relatively holding up well as it has already been oversold in this downleg OK, FINALLY have the funds available in my account! Missed the drop yesterday!! Figures! So I have an order in for $2.85 (Jan '17 $3) which is a little lower than Ask so let's see if we get the morning Short dump that we've been seeing for the last week or so.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 11, 2015 7:25:20 GMT -5
Yup. Same here, did the transfer on Friday, calling the broker today to see where it was. Was hitting 5.13 when I was calling. Thought we might be seeing it break 5 and wanted another 1k fix real bad. OOG
I might have to start up a chapter of Options Anonymous (again):
"Hello, my name is MnHoldem and I'm an Options Trader". "Hello, MnHoldem." "Yesterday morning. I... I... I just couldn't help it! I saw the pps falling and before I knew it I was calling my dealer...um, I mean brokerage rep... and I just needed that fix! I need help!" "Just let it all out, MnHoldem, we're here for you." "Thanks, you're good friends."
Incidentally, yesterday I placed my order early am with a bid on the low side, since I expected pps to drop again throughout the day. I knew I wouldn't be able to watch it, since had several management meetings and some travel time to a few of my local plants. Unfortunately, right after I placed the morning order the pps jumped about 10 cents and flatlined pretty much all day, so nobody picked up my bid on the 2017 $3 Calls. But, today is another day. One day at a time...
"Hello, my name is MnHoldem and I'm an Options Trader..."
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Post by papihoyos on Mar 12, 2015 7:53:33 GMT -5
I purchase some new Jan '17 $3 calls at $2.70 but I've been trying to also roll my Jan '16 $4 calls to Jan '17 $3 ($4 not available). At some point during the last month, the mark was under a $1 (sometimes as low as $.80) which didn't make sense to me. I didn't have the funds at the time in my account to execute/place a trade. I now do. I have a standing order to roll the calls for $1, which I would be delighted if it occurs. The current mark is $1.08. Let's see what happens. Incidentally, I generally fund my rolls by rolling my puts as well, so I have a standing order right now to roll my Jan '16 $7 puts to Jan '17 $7 puts for $1. Current mark is $.59. I'm patient.
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 12, 2015 8:50:55 GMT -5
If you guys want to know why our stock is struggling, check this out. nobetes.com/Hard to compete with that!!
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Post by liane on Mar 12, 2015 8:57:32 GMT -5
baba,
Did you read the "Waiver of Liability" and "Class Action Limitation"?
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 12, 2015 9:50:03 GMT -5
I saw that, too.
It's right below the "WARNING: THESE STATEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EVALUATED BY THE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION."
I'm trying to find the company name, so I can invest, but it's nowhere to be found. Then I tried the ticker SCAM... no luck so far.
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