|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Feb 5, 2020 9:34:47 GMT -5
Tell me in 3 sentences what you mean... Are you saying you don’t care if we have to reverse split again ..that the time to buy will be when that price (after the split) gets cut in half again? That could be true. I hope not. But that’s exactly what makes me hesitant to throw any more money at this right now. Additional money is probably needed beyond what is available from existing resources (loan, ATM, revenue) to get to CFBE. Dilution is possible and not guaranteed to be a disaster because it depends on quantity and share price and it adds cash to the treasury and value to the market cap and may already be baked into the SP. Patience is a virtue because of current reality and the future positive outlook that is becoming increasingly probable.
Agree:-) And I hope it’s baked in. Good point, I didn’t think about that. |
|
|
|
Post by kenken on Feb 5, 2020 10:03:10 GMT -5
Agree with, :-), my wife (10 years type 1) sold 200 shares, 50% gain of her holding of Tsla to exchange 100,000 shares of Mnkd, at no cost, yesterday. What's a lady with a great vision.    . |
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Feb 5, 2020 10:22:44 GMT -5
Additional money is probably needed beyond what is available from existing resources (loan, ATM, revenue) to get to CFBE. Dilution is possible and not guaranteed to be a disaster because it depends on quantity and share price and it adds cash to the treasury and value to the market cap and may already be baked into the SP. Patience is a virtue because of current reality and the future positive outlook that is becoming increasingly probable.
Agree:-) And I hope it’s baked in. Good point, I didn’t think about that. . Dilution is not baked in. Stock will go down with it like usual (ceteris paribus). Shorts are loaded and looking forward to it. We are already over valued while trading at over 8x this year’s anticipated sales. |
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Feb 5, 2020 10:30:06 GMT -5
Insiders don’t believe in sinking their own money into this, so why should we? They see the writing on the wall better than all of us...
|
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Feb 5, 2020 10:35:10 GMT -5
Tell me in 3 sentences what you mean... Are you saying you don’t care if we have to reverse split again ..that the time to buy will be when that price (after the split) gets cut in half again? That could be true. I hope not. But that’s exactly what makes me hesitant to throw any more money at this right now. Additional money is probably needed beyond what is available from existing resources (loan, ATM, revenue) to get to CFBE. Dilution is possible and not guaranteed to be a disaster because it depends on quantity and share price and it adds cash to the treasury and value to the market cap and may already be baked into the SP. Patience is a virtue because of current reality and the future positive outlook that is becoming increasingly probable.
Dilution at this level will be a disaster, what makes you think doing the status quo which you seem totally fine with will allow Castagna to dilute on better terms from a position of more strength? |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Feb 5, 2020 12:08:35 GMT -5
prc it appears you are predicting share price will decline in the near term but then at some point reverse and then increase? You didn't answer sports' question about reverse split, I'm curious about your take on that.
I read your analysis above and hope those optimistic predictions come true, though reading "embarrassment of riches" made me cringe reflexively. That phrase should be banned on this message board IMO (just kidding... sort of). 😉
|
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 5, 2020 12:13:04 GMT -5
Additional money is probably needed beyond what is available from existing resources (loan, ATM, revenue) to get to CFBE. Dilution is possible and not guaranteed to be a disaster because it depends on quantity and share price and it adds cash to the treasury and value to the market cap and may already be baked into the SP. Patience is a virtue because of current reality and the future positive outlook that is becoming increasingly probable.
Dilution at this level will be a disaster, what makes you think doing the status quo which you seem totally fine with will allow Castagna to dilute on better terms from a position of more strength? You're predicting disaster but that doesn't mean it will happen. I'm predicting it would not be a disaster but that doesn't mean it won't hurt. Some of my reasons for optimism are higher lows, better volume (as compared to 1 year ago and 2 years ago), random rallies, increasing sales, last loan was short term, UTHR milestones for TreT and unnamed molecule, other potential in the pipeline, intl deals and sales, studies, progress on approval for use for children, et cetera. I believe the "blue sky" (goodwill) on the Balance Sheet is way undervalued (similar view as Nate Pile). I'm realistic that this all takes time (I think 2 more years at least) and money. Is Mannkind in good shape financially? It could be better, but it's been far worse, and there are no reasons to panic. I do not go in for hyperbole so words like "disaster" are not believable to me. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11736/differently?page=5#ixzz6D6J9hjOV |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 5, 2020 12:29:59 GMT -5
prc it appears you are predicting share price will decline in the near term but then at some point reverse and then increase? You didn't answer sports' question about reverse split, I'm curious about your take on that. I read your analysis above and hope those optimistic predictions come true, though reading "embarrassment of riches" made me cringe reflexively. That phrase should be banned on this message board IMO (just kidding... sort of). 😉 I have assumed, and I believe the street assumes additional funding is necessary beyond the MidCap loan, ATM (is that still available?), milestones, and Afrezza revenue. Reverse split caused by heavy dilution on bad terms is a worst case scenario so I discount it. There are too many other possibilities so I refuse to get fixated on the worst case scenario. The folks who have hope in Hope For Mannkind do not believe MNKD is doomed to the worst case scenario no matter who is at the helm or what choices are made. They assume it can be avoided and have theories how marketing and/or cost savings (or selling Afrezza to big BP) can prevent it. I don't agree with their views on these strategies, but I do agree the worst case scenario is the worst and about as likely as best case scenarios. I assume reality is somewhere in between. |
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Feb 5, 2020 16:11:06 GMT -5
Dilution at this level will be a disaster, what makes you think doing the status quo which you seem totally fine with will allow Castagna to dilute on better terms from a position of more strength? You're predicting disaster but that doesn't mean it will happen. I'm predicting it would not be a disaster but that doesn't mean it won't hurt. Some of my reasons for optimism are higher lows, better volume (as compared to 1 year ago and 2 years ago), random rallies, increasing sales, last loan was short term, UTHR milestones for TreT and unnamed molecule, other potential in the pipeline, intl deals and sales, studies, progress on approval for use for children, et cetera. I believe the "blue sky" (goodwill) on the Balance Sheet is way undervalued (similar view as Nate Pile). I'm realistic that this all takes time (I think 2 more years at least) and money. Is Mannkind in good shape financially? It could be better, but it's been far worse, and there are no reasons to panic. I do not go in for hyperbole so words like "disaster" are not believable to me. You seem to be of the notion that shorts are a big problem for the situation that MannKind is in. Any sort of dilution is essentially a bat signal for "hey shorts, come over here and party!", and then you throw in the scenario of moving out of compliance and in danger of a reverse split, and you might as well invite the shorts over to your house to crap on your bed for the next year. |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Feb 5, 2020 16:58:52 GMT -5
I agree with prc that reverse split is worst case scenario for near term future. How likely that is I don't feel confident predicting/guessing. Obviously dilution increases those odds, but I believe there's a decent chance dilution could happen and we still remain above delisting/RS territory. We were able to for our last dilution at least. That doesn't change the fact that dilution sucks, it gets us closer to RS territory, and as Sports said RS turns into "circling the drain" territory.
We can all do the math on Afrezza scripts and see the dilution writing on the wall. As many have pointed out, we also have potential deals that could bring in badly needed $$. We've had such potential for many years now with only UTHR to show for it (yeah RLS too but that's a pittance so far in reality). Clock is ticking on turning that Technosphere potential into deals, seems like deals are not materializing as fast as any of our CEOs - past and present - have promised. Here's to hoping MC can prove his supporters accurate on this point, and soon.
|
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 5, 2020 17:16:11 GMT -5
I agree with prc that reverse split is worst case scenario for near term future. How likely that is I don't feel confident predicting/guessing. Obviously dilution increases those odds, but I believe there's a decent chance dilution could happen and we still remain above delisting/RS territory. We were able to for our last dilution at least. That doesn't change the fact that dilution sucks, it gets us closer to RS territory, and as Sports said RS turns into "circling the drain" territory. We can all do the math on Afrezza scripts and see the dilution writing on the wall. As many have pointed out, we also have potential deals that could bring in badly needed $$. We've had such potential for many years now with only UTHR to show for it (yeah RLS too but that's a pittance so far in reality). Clock is ticking on turning that Technosphere potential into deals, seems like deals are not materializing as fast as any of our CEOs - past and present - have promised. Here's to hoping MC can prove his supporters accurate on this point, and soon. I think a lot depends on how management handles it. Can I predict whether they will be prudent or reckless/tone-deaf... I'd sooner try to predict a random number generator. Though I'm very hopeful their wisdom has grown in the past couple of years. |
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Feb 5, 2020 17:55:54 GMT -5
When the shorts have to buy back 40 million shares they will be preying for dilution. I will still be buying more shares. Just a scenario.
Lets Go!
|
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 5, 2020 19:10:19 GMT -5
You're predicting disaster but that doesn't mean it will happen. I'm predicting it would not be a disaster but that doesn't mean it won't hurt. Some of my reasons for optimism are higher lows, better volume (as compared to 1 year ago and 2 years ago), random rallies, increasing sales, last loan was short term, UTHR milestones for TreT and unnamed molecule, other potential in the pipeline, intl deals and sales, studies, progress on approval for use for children, et cetera. I believe the "blue sky" (goodwill) on the Balance Sheet is way undervalued (similar view as Nate Pile). I'm realistic that this all takes time (I think 2 more years at least) and money. Is Mannkind in good shape financially? It could be better, but it's been far worse, and there are no reasons to panic. I do not go in for hyperbole so words like "disaster" are not believable to me. You seem to be of the notion that shorts are a big problem for the situation that MannKind is in. Any sort of dilution is essentially a bat signal for "hey shorts, come over here and party!", and then you throw in the scenario of moving out of compliance and in danger of a reverse split, and you might as well invite the shorts over to your house to crap on your bed for the next year. You seem to be of the notion that I mentioned shorts. I did not. You cast your FUD. I'm going to go enjoy a beverage and watch replays of highlights of the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl.
|
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Feb 6, 2020 12:06:24 GMT -5
When the shorts have to buy back 40 million shares they will be preying for dilution. I will still be buying more shares. Just a scenario. Lets Go! If only they actually had to buy them back. Does not seem to be the case unfortunately. |
|
|
|
Post by kc on Feb 6, 2020 13:03:28 GMT -5
Agree with, :-), my wife (10 years type 1) sold 200 shares, 50% gain of her holding of Tsla to exchange 100,000 shares of Mnkd, at no cost, yesterday. What's a lady with a great vision. . Like your style and wish you good luck on the 100,000 shares. |
|
.
