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Post by bthomas55ep on Feb 15, 2020 20:55:09 GMT -5
Agree. Nate mentioned twice in his newsletter about the possibility of MC being replaced or delivering..but said that the stock would go up either way. “ The company’s upcoming earnings call is shaping up to be possibly be a “binary event” of sorts – either the company’s CEO, Mike Castagna, is going to provide an update (and possibly “news”) that will prove his plan is actually working even though the stock price still does not reflect the reality of the situation, or he is not going to be able to deliver on that front… and if he doesn’t, it will greatly increase the odds that he will be replaced (and, ironically, the good news for us is that history suggests that, under the circumstances, either outcome is likely to lead to an increase in the stock price from current levels!).” The danger is the way I see it, is that neither one of those things happen and he asks for more shares to be authorized. I would tend to think history suggests your stated dangerous outcome is actually the most likely. I don't buy Nate's opinion that something great for share price is inevitable. Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. |
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 15, 2020 23:30:37 GMT -5
I would tend to think history suggests your stated dangerous outcome is actually the most likely. I don't buy Nate's opinion that something great for share price is inevitable. Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. TreT will no bring multi-billion value to the company. You can calculate the peak royalty number (even that is several years away). RLS? haven't started P1 yet. What else? |
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Post by barnstormer on Feb 15, 2020 23:54:25 GMT -5
I would tend to think history suggests your stated dangerous outcome is actually the most likely. I don't buy Nate's opinion that something great for share price is inevitable. Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. Ah yes....more shares that will go to the short side before the ink is dried. That's why we need a partner with cash so we don't have to set up the success of more shorts. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 16, 2020 2:57:53 GMT -5
Success of more shorts? The posts pretty much spells out who the shorts are. As for myself ... I LOVE them because I am getting so many more shares at this cheap price. AND when NVAX does it's run next week ... maybe I'll be able to sell and buy a ton more of MNKD.  I don't know, because lefty said that I can't sell on Monday. Ha! But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 16, 2020 8:58:22 GMT -5
I was wondering if somebody would tell you that the stock market will be closed on Presidents Day.  We have quite the support team here at ProBoards-MNKD.  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 16, 2020 9:39:36 GMT -5
Over 50% think there will be a change. Who is surprised by this outcome?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 16, 2020 10:47:14 GMT -5
I would tend to think history suggests your stated dangerous outcome is actually the most likely. I don't buy Nate's opinion that something great for share price is inevitable. Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. Thank you. I could not have said this better myself. There is no magic.
As for the usual negative greystone, go back and look at the slides for what other compounds are candidates for TechnoSphere before assuming there is nothing there. Remember, Mannkind was to be a drug development company. Affreza was only the first application. The fact that there are two other bona fide development deals (one of which is material) is proof of Dr. Mann's vision. Nate also used to say many investors benefited by following "the smart money" meaning self-made billionaires who have invested in many companies might bear paying attention to their thinking. Their are pain and other medications which would benefit from a ride on the TS molecule to get to the bloodstream in seconds. Martine Rothblatt (another self-made billionaire) and Dr. Castagna have been talking about a second unnamed molecule. Read, learn.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 16, 2020 10:53:06 GMT -5
Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. Ah yes....more shares that will go to the short side before the ink is dried. That's why we need a partner with cash so we don't have to set up the success of more shorts. Agree, Also the stock is to low to dilute at this share price. And asking for more authorized shares would make it go even lower, so they need a deal first. IMO |
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 16, 2020 12:23:08 GMT -5
Regardless, CEO replaced or no, more shares must be issued to extend the runway to cash flow b/e. That is the share price catalyst. Can the company get there before running out of money and debt is due. Personally - issuing more shares which creates no further debt is an enevitable, but inconsequential event to the big picture and to the realization of investment goal outcomes. 200 Million shares out versus 300 Million shares out (versus 400 million plus presplit) will not stop an acceptable share price target if it ultimately means a multi-Billion valuation with several growing product lines under T/S. Thank you. I could not have said this better myself. There is no magic.
As for the usual negative greystone, go back and look at the slides for what other compounds are candidates for TechnoSphere before assuming there is nothing there. Remember, Mannkind was to be a drug development company. Affreza was only the first application. The fact that there are two other bona fide development deals (one of which is material) is proof of Dr. Mann's vision. Nate also used to say many investors benefited by following "the smart money" meaning self-made billionaires who have invested in many companies might bear paying attention to their thinking. Their are pain and other medications which would benefit from a ride on the TS molecule to get to the bloodstream in seconds. Martine Rothblatt (another self-made billionaire) and Dr. Castagna have been talking about a second unnamed molecule. Read, learn.
I can give u a list of a hundred biotech companies working on novel drugs development with market cap less than a few hundred million dollars. What’s the unique about mnkd’s pipeline? Afrezza is the crown jewel of this company, find a guy who can really sell it instead of deluding people to wait for the next TS drugs. |
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Post by matt on Feb 16, 2020 13:41:46 GMT -5
Agree, Also the stock is to low to dilute at this share price. And asking for more authorized shares would make it go even lower, so they need a deal first. IMO I understand the sentiment, but never play chicken with the financial markets. The market is long overdue for a correction and while it is nice to have a high value deal signed, there are no guarantees that a deal can get done on good terms before the market goes soft. I have seen too many small biotechs play the waiting game and then found themselves trying to raise money in a declining or crashing market environment. None of those stories ended well hence the old adage "raise money when you can, not when you need it." |
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Post by rfogel on Feb 16, 2020 13:53:31 GMT -5
Agree, Also the stock is to low to dilute at this share price. And asking for more authorized shares would make it go even lower, so they need a deal first. IMO I understand the sentiment, but never play chicken with the financial markets. The market is long overdue for a correction and while it is nice to have a high value deal signed, there are no guarantees that a deal can get done on good terms before the market goes soft. I have seen too many small biotechs play the waiting game and then found themselves trying to raise money in a declining or crashing market environment. None of those stories ended well hence the old adage "raise money when you can, not when you need it." More commonly known as "making hay while the sun shines." Problem is what if the sun always seems behind a cloud. |
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Post by liane on Feb 16, 2020 14:19:59 GMT -5
Agree, Also the stock is to low to dilute at this share price. And asking for more authorized shares would make it go even lower, so they need a deal first. IMO I understand the sentiment, but never play chicken with the financial markets. The market is long overdue for a correction and while it is nice to have a high value deal signed, there are no guarantees that a deal can get done on good terms before the market goes soft. I have seen too many small biotechs play the waiting game and then found themselves trying to raise money in a declining or crashing market environment. None of those stories ended well hence the old adage "raise money when you can, not when you need it." Thanks matt. This is why I was not as upset as some people with the Christmas dilution a year ago. The market was looking scary for a brief while. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 16, 2020 15:22:48 GMT -5
I understand the sentiment, but never play chicken with the financial markets. The market is long overdue for a correction and while it is nice to have a high value deal signed, there are no guarantees that a deal can get done on good terms before the market goes soft. I have seen too many small biotechs play the waiting game and then found themselves trying to raise money in a declining or crashing market environment. None of those stories ended well hence the old adage "raise money when you can, not when you need it." Thanks matt. This is why I was not as upset as some people with the Christmas dilution a year ago. The market was looking scary for a brief while. Everyone and their mother, sister, and brother have been waiting for "the correction"....there are countless bodies of short sellers with arrows in their backs who have tried to time "the" correction...they continue to try and fight the fed and slower global markets that need to continue to pour money here for better returns...the spreads between our bonds and theirs continues to cause imbalances never seen before...I suspect like most it will not end well but at same time doesn't necessarily mean you have to give away the store...that's what 43 million and counting are hoping for...case in point the post your referencing  |
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Post by matt on Feb 17, 2020 8:04:58 GMT -5
Everyone and their mother, sister, and brother have been waiting for "the correction"....there are countless bodies of short sellers with arrows in their backs who have tried to time "the" correction No argument that nearly everybody has been waiting for the correction which has stubbornly refused to cooperate. The one thing I have learned over the years is that attempts to time anything related to the markets with any degree of precision is a fool's errand, and not much can be forecast in the short-term and the long-term often turns out to be a lot longer than we might have thought. However, every trend regresses to the mean at some point so it is simply a matter of time. I agree that you don't want to give away the store with any financing, but if an enterprise is not making money and the balance sheet does not have at least a year of cash in the bank then that is cutting it very close for a company that is still burning cash every quarter. The advantage in always having millions of authorized shares in reserve is that management can move quickly to close a funding if market conditions dictate, but the downside of having them authorized is that there is no way to prevent the "Christmas Surprise". On the flip side, authorizing more shares outside the annual meeting requires a bare minimum of three weeks to meet SEC notification rules, and practically speaking it takes four to five weeks. A three to five week heads-up that the company is about to go to the financial markets is a gift to the shorts. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 17, 2020 9:27:29 GMT -5
You guys are gonna laugh at me because you are experts but in 08 I read a book called “The 16 year cycle”, or something like that. So in my mind I had it figured out the bull market was going to last 16 years which means we have four years to go. But really all I wanna know is matt can you call the bottom for me, so at least I know where to start buying because right now I’m saving not spending. 😎 youtu.be/UBJ0gsDjsv4 |
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I don't know, because lefty said that I can't sell on Monday. Ha!
