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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 25, 2020 15:55:10 GMT -5
Nate specified that dilution was normal in a small bio. He also said the cc would be a binary event....Either MC had something or it was time for change. Obviously we were not in a quiet period because of a partnership deal with Amgen or other....Which speaks to Mike not having any communications with shareholders or answering any emails... which speaks to the suggestion by Steve that he’s been muzzled. Just a plain quiet period before earnings it’s not something Mike ever respected before as far as e-mails go. Nate stated THIS cc was a binary event? For MNKD, for his assessment of holding vs exiting, or for his support of management? If it really were a binary event for him did he decide on what the criteria would be ahead of time? MC "having something" isn't exactly hard line setting of concrete criteria. Same way that I wouldn't think much of the BoD setting an annual goal for Mike's bonus saying "if you have something" you'll get your bonus. I'm guessing Nate's rhetorical support of MNKD will remain unwavering. “ As mentioned above, I believe things are coming together in a manner that suggests Castagna is either getting ready to unveil what he’s been working on behind the scenes*… or it is going to become clear that some real change may be needed in the C-suite… ” “ The company’s upcoming earnings call is shaping up to be possibly be a “binary event” of sorts – either the company’s CEO, Mike Castagna, is going to provide an update (and possibly “news”) that will prove his plan is actually working even though the stock price still does not reflect the reality of the situation, or he is not going to be able to deliver on that front… and if he doesn’t, it will greatly increase the odds that he will be replaced (and, ironically, the good news for us is that history suggests that, under the circumstances, either outcome is likely to lead to an increase in the stock price from current levels!).” |
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Post by awesomo on Feb 25, 2020 16:04:53 GMT -5
So the only question is, does Nate think Mike delivered?
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 25, 2020 16:05:53 GMT -5
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 25, 2020 16:08:45 GMT -5
So the only question is, does Nate think Mike delivered? Well there was no news to speak of, and I can’t say he’s proved his plan is actually working yet. |
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 16:37:33 GMT -5
Here are a few notes I made from the CC.
THE GOOD
- Seems that UTHR INCREASE study will result in expanded WHO 3 indication on TreT label, with potential increase in revenue of 2x to 3x vs existing Tyvaso.
- The data on COGS (slide 13) would seem to indicate that at high volume (assuming we're still a long ways from maxing out capacity of fixed cost infrastructure) the gross margin would be slightly less than 80%, which seems good and gives plenty of room for discounting to insurers to gain better placement.
- I was generally impressed with details given to questions. Seems much more candid than in the past on several things. Though I do still take issue with level of candor around finances.
- Strong statements about relatively low risk of TreT development.
- Indian trial starting in April and only 3 month duration.
THE BAD
- Implying that MidCap final $25M is still available without at all addressing the glaring gap in script trajectory meeting the required covenants. Seems like more Mike smoke and mirrors trying to imply cash is no longer a problem.
- T2 new patient 2 month dropout rate is 50% (would be interesting how that compares with RAA)
THE OTHER
- No Q4 Brazil shipment, some in Q1 and more in Q2. My guess would be only six $ figure in Q1.
- At first it sounded like a dramatic narrowing of focus was in the works, but it seems they are still planning to broadly market TS and merely removing 4 APIs from pipeline candidates? Anybody have a different read?
- Multiple mentions to "free goods" including that they represent 15% of scripts and 20% of revenue. At first I thought that might be the "almost free" Eagle discounted sales, but the comment about % of revenue seems to indicate a rebate program rather than discount. Do they still have cards for free samples for new patients? Does anyone know? Would have liked for some explanation since this is first CC I remember use of "free goods" in discussion.
- Only 3% of targeted docs have written any Afrezza prescription. I almost included this in "the bad" but of course Mike spun this as meaning still a lot of opportunity, which may be true, but also demonstrates just how much of an uphill battle this is getting docs to even give Afrezza a try.
- In mention of BluHale it was entirely the Pro version to be used for in clinic training. No mention of consumer version or development with OneDrop. I thought MNKD management had long ago led us to believe BluHale was available to clinics. Great that this will be getting to docs finally if it hasn't been, but seems a lot of hyping and shifting story with regard to BluHale.
- Launching patient training pilot. Great? We haven't had a patient training program? A pilot? How long until the real thing?
- Mike stated a personal belief that peds would be game changing, but they seem to be spending money to assess the extent that is accurate.
- 25% of NRx are new patients.
- Indian trial doesn't seem to be with CGM and will be only 50-100 patients.
- Under 7yo designation for peds is not being pursued.
- Design of peds study will take another 3-6 months.
Please, if I misheard anything, reply with corrections.
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 16:48:25 GMT -5
“ As mentioned above, I believe things are coming together in a manner that suggests Castagna is either getting ready to unveil what he’s been working on behind the scenes*… or it is going to become clear that some real change may be needed in the C-suite… ” “ The company’s upcoming earnings call is shaping up to be possibly be a “binary event” of sorts – either the company’s CEO, Mike Castagna, is going to provide an update (and possibly “news”) that will prove his plan is actually working even though the stock price still does not reflect the reality of the situation, or he is not going to be able to deliver on that front… and if he doesn’t, it will greatly increase the odds that he will be replaced (and, ironically, the good news for us is that history suggests that, under the circumstances, either outcome is likely to lead to an increase in the stock price from current levels!).” I guess a new reveal in the CC of something being worked on behind the scenes is a "patient training pilot program". You think that will be enough for Nate?  We did get a couple of encouraging updates on "in front of the scenes" efforts, and financial results that could have been easily predicted from Symphony numbers and well established slow linear growth trend. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 25, 2020 16:49:56 GMT -5
Okay market is closed and my stocks are back to normal or headed that way. My daughter isn't worried and booked a trip to Dizzyland with BF. Das is good ... Das is fine.
But, that's mytakeonit
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bkdmd
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by bkdmd on Feb 25, 2020 17:02:25 GMT -5
Every time we hear no dilution, we get hit with dilution.
What is everyone's best guess when MC will hammer us with another round of dilution?
MC should get a job in Washington D.C. He is good at asking for money, but never delivers or is willing to be held accountable.
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 25, 2020 17:05:30 GMT -5
Dilution will come in the form of splits ... when the pps is at $100. So probably in 3 years.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 25, 2020 19:46:00 GMT -5
Sorry, I do not know how to post this exchange, that I had w/Nate on Twitter here - so, I will type it. To start, I was on ST’s addressing John Kastane’s comment, that stated MC’s visit to NY (for the conf) is to raise money thru dilution & toxic warrants. I asked, how he knew that & the answer given, implied it was based on the people that would be there or something like that. While that was going on, a tweet popped up from Nate, who was talking to someone on Twitter about dilution - so, I responded to Nate, telling him about Kastane’s ST post & going on to say - “We haven’t even gotten through tomorrow’s conference call yet. Someone seems to always be looking for negatives. Gets tiring.” Nate responded with... “As you know, there are many folks who seem to make their living by tossing red herrings into the MNKD stream of social media (and, as you’ve probably noticed, they’ve developed a dismal track record of predictions to show for it as the years have rolled by :-)) I like that response. Tomorrow’s another day. Looking forward to the 9a EST CC. It appears that, based on today's CC, that John Kastanes' prediction that MannKind's presence at the conference is to raise money through dilution and toxic warrants was indeed wrong and nothing further from the truth. Why anyone listens to him is beyond me. Here's a failed prediction for you to keep tabs of ktim 😉 From JK on ST... $MNKD Quick cash analysis: MannKind finished 2019 with $50 million in cash. Castagna says they will receive two $12.5 million milestones for TreT, and they can borrow $10 million from MidCap. Those two add $35 million bringing total cash to $85 million. MannKind is burning at least $10 million per quarter, and if they borrow the $10 million from MidCap MannKind must reserve $25 million. So $85 - 4x$10 - $25 = $20. So If MannKind is able to earn two United milestones and borrow $10 million from MidCap they can finish the year without dilution. |
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 19:52:03 GMT -5
It appears that, based on today's CC, that John Kastanes' prediction that MannKind's presence at the conference is to raise money through dilution and toxic warrants was indeed wrong and nothing further from the truth. Why anyone listens to him is beyond me. Here's a failed prediction for you to keep tabs of ktim 😉 From JK on ST... $MNKD Quick cash analysis: MannKind finished 2019 with $50 million in cash. Castagna says they will receive two $12.5 million milestones for TreT, and they can borrow $10 million from MidCap. Those two add $35 million bringing total cash to $85 million. MannKind is burning at least $10 million per quarter, and if they borrow the $10 million from MidCap MannKind must reserve $25 million. So $85 - 4x$10 - $25 = $20. So If MannKind is able to earn two United milestones and borrow $10 million from MidCap they can finish the year without dilution. That doesn't even account for any $ we get from a new partner, if/when that happens as well. Plus, Brazil payments, etc... |
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Post by ktim on Feb 27, 2020 1:43:28 GMT -5
From JK on ST... $MNKD Quick cash analysis: MannKind finished 2019 with $50 million in cash. Castagna says they will receive two $12.5 million milestones for TreT, and they can borrow $10 million from MidCap. Those two add $35 million bringing total cash to $85 million. MannKind is burning at least $10 million per quarter, and if they borrow the $10 million from MidCap MannKind must reserve $25 million. So $85 - 4x$10 - $25 = $20. So If MannKind is able to earn two United milestones and borrow $10 million from MidCap they can finish the year without dilution. That doesn't even account for any $ we get from a new partner, if/when that happens as well. Plus, Brazil payments, etc... Doesn't include them finding a winning lotto ticket, etc. |
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Post by Clement on Feb 27, 2020 10:38:38 GMT -5
In his presentation today, MC said he would have an announcement about tadalafil in a month or two.
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Post by kite on Feb 27, 2020 10:41:50 GMT -5
Did anyone listen in to this this morning?
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 27, 2020 10:52:03 GMT -5
I did , and thought it was pretty damm good ! And that’s after a being a moderna owner for a while 😀 mikes busy... and sounds like he will be a lot busier relatively soon 👍 I recommend listening to it .. I think longs will be pleased.
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