|
|
Post by alethea on Aug 26, 2014 15:52:31 GMT -5
Notice the days to cover change quite a bit when the volume spikes like it did for about a week or two. So this picture is really distorted a bit. Shares Daily avg Days to cover 8/15/2014 77,343,842 17,109,430 4.520539 7/31/2014 72,584,807 7,791,571 9.315812 So did they increase since they know there is that much blood in the water. How many outstanding shares that are held by Mann and Institutional holders? What % of stock is that? How can one determine if the shares shorted are Naked? As Sherlock Holmes would have said, " it tis as I suspected..." The 4.5 days to cover is absurd and ridiculous. It includes volumes of 62 and 44 million on Aug 11th and 12th. If you only count today's volume and the four preceeding days, the average daily volume is a puny 4.1 million. That yields a Days to Cover of more than 18 days!As far as knowing how many shares shorted are illegally naked, unfortunately we do not know and sadly we will never know. Not while the fox is in charge of the henhouse. Once again I would urge longs to only hold shares, but if you must do options, do only very long-term options. Wall Street devours without mercy, people who deal in short-term options. |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 26, 2014 15:56:40 GMT -5
I am somewhere between surprised and stunned at the increase; the short number is about 10 million above where I thought it might be. Another plate of crow moussaka for me - gettin' sick of that dish, especially when it's served with spanakopita, tzatziki and some baklava for dessert!
I can only imagine what they (the shorties) have cooked up this time, I suppose we will find out one day soon. I hope we can at least cancel them out with some good news (talk about wishful thinking)!
Well, I'm not selling if we get hit, and I'll likely buy more shares and/or sell more puts if that happens. It will feel pretty good when whatever baloney the shorts try is met with similar market reaction to the genuinely good news the company puts out.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 26, 2014 16:04:32 GMT -5
I can only imagine what they (the shorties) have cooked up this time, I suppose we will find out one day soon. I hope we can at least cancel them out with some good news (talk about wishful thinking)! Well, I'm not selling if we get hit, and I'll likely buy more shares and/or sell more puts if that happens. It will feel pretty good when whatever baloney the shorts try is met with similar market reaction to the genuinely good news the company puts out. Falling under the wishful thinking... I'm hoping institutional investors may be waiting for the full agreements to become known at the first of Nov. My guess (of the pure guess, not educated variety) is that there is something in the deal that will be a tell to how confident Sanofi is in how large the market will be. If I'm wrong and that event doesn't trigger a lot of buying, then shorts may still have a playground until well into 2015 once real sales figures start rolling in. |
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Aug 26, 2014 16:28:18 GMT -5
Spiro is not surprised by the increase in short position. It the only tool they have left in their attempt to rattle our confidence. The ridiculous hit pieces will not work anymore, so all they have left is to continue to borrow shares and plan more short attacks. Their next attack will probably occur on a big market down day. The big problem for the shorts now is that the Sanofi deal has most likely strengthened institutional confidence and buying. Most weak hands have probably moved on and we probably have a much stronger retail base of ownership. The "I can wait crowd" is now in control and why not. It is going to be very difficult for the shorts to spin future news announcements from MNKD and Sanofi. I am anxiously awaiting news that the FDA has approved the Cricket device and that Torrey Pines will begin clinical testing on humans using the device. A Technosphere contract or two with some other drug companies funding the trials, should be very interesting as well. Also Sanofi filing foreign country NDA's will be difficult for the shorts to spin negatively. So, guess in 2 weeks the short interest will be over 80 million, what else is new.
Spiro here, Siberia will just have to wait.
|
|
|
|
Post by alethea on Aug 26, 2014 16:29:41 GMT -5
I am somewhere between surprised and stunned at the increase; the short number is about 10 million above where I thought it might be..... I can only imagine what they (the shorties) have cooked up this time.... Well, I'm not selling if we get hit, and I'll likely buy more shares and/or sell more puts if that happens. It will feel pretty good when whatever baloney the shorts try is met with similar market reaction to the genuinely good news the company puts out. Furthermore, during the 3 days of Aug 13 thru 15 (settled and to be shown on the Aug 29 short report), another 43 million shares traded while crashing the PPS from 7.48 to 6.86. A whole bunch more shorting. A whole bunch! Finally on the next trading day, Aug 18, there was short-covering IMHO as evidenced by the 13 M shares traded and the PPS rise from 6.86 to 7.23. But the shorts ain't covered squat since then and I guesstimate the shares short as of this moment to be 80 million or more.They gotta cover sometime. |
|
|
|
Post by irrationalexuberance on Aug 26, 2014 16:35:48 GMT -5
Also consider Al's large holding. The last Form 4 with Al's name on it shows that he has just about 138 million shares under his control, which significantly reduces the float. My quick math says:
402 million outstanding (per most recent 10Q)
minus Al's 138
equals 264 float
77/262=29% short
I just can't explain this constant increase in the short interest, especially given the several pieces of good news we have received lately.
|
|
|
|
Post by biotec on Aug 26, 2014 16:44:00 GMT -5
The shorts interest will be hi until QT 2 or 3 of 2015. There betting on very low sales.If very low interest of Afrezza the shorts make a killing, If very strong sales we see a short squeeze. Like I said will not happen until a couple (6 months at least) of sales. I thought this year was the big year, But This time next year Ill be eating spam or a fine steak.
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 26, 2014 16:45:09 GMT -5
Spiro is not surprised by the increase in short position. It the only tool they have left in their attempt to rattle our confidence. The ridiculous hit pieces will not work anymore, so all they have left is to continue to borrow shares and plan more short attacks. Their next attack will probably occur on a big market down day. The big problem for the shorts now is that the Sanofi deal has most likely strengthened institutional confidence and buying. Most weak hands have probably moved on and we probably have a much stronger retail base of ownership. The "I can wait crowd" is now in control and why not. It is going to be very difficult for the shorts to spin future news announcements from MNKD and Sanofi. I am anxiously awaiting news that the FDA has approved the Cricket device and that Torrey Pines will begin clinical testing on humans using the device. A Technosphere contract or two with some other drug companies funding the trials, should be very interesting as well. Also Sanofi filing foreign country NDA's will be difficult for the shorts to spin negatively. So, guess in 2 weeks the short interest will be over 80 million, what else is new. Spiro here, Siberia will just have to wait. Geez, spiro, you must have really sent detailed lists to Santa when you were a kid; and now you send them to Al Mann? |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 26, 2014 16:48:06 GMT -5
The shorts interest will be hi until QT 2 or 3 of 2015. There betting on very low sales.If very low interest of Afrezza the shorts make a killing, If very strong sales we see a short squeeze. Like I said will not happen until a couple (6 months at least) of sales. I thought this year was the big year, But This time next year Ill be eating spam or a fine steak. Here's the thing, though, many of those shorts are paying interest at awful rates whilst they borrow shares, and what you describe is a long time to pay the piper. Not sayin' you're wrong, just sayin'. |
|
|
|
Post by biotec on Aug 26, 2014 16:49:40 GMT -5
Bab, What is a whilst? Must be Lawyer talk. LOL
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 26, 2014 16:49:49 GMT -5
"I just can't explain this constant increase in the short interest, especially given the several pieces of good news we have received lately." You and I both! By the way, your should consider dropping the last three letters of your handle.  |
|
|
|
Post by biotec on Aug 26, 2014 16:54:59 GMT -5
The shorts interest will be hi until QT 2 or 3 of 2015. There betting on very low sales.If very low interest of Afrezza the shorts make a killing, If very strong sales we see a short squeeze. Like I said will not happen until a couple (6 months at least) of sales. I thought this year was the big year, But This time next year Ill be eating spam or a fine steak. Here's the thing, though, many of those shorts are paying interest at awful rates whilst they borrow shares, and what you describe is a long time to pay the piper. Not sayin' you're wrong, just sayin'. I understand makes no sense at all. But How long have some of these shorts been in MNKD already? Like some longs there betting the farm. |
|
|
|
Post by kc on Aug 26, 2014 17:11:55 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Aug 26, 2014 17:26:20 GMT -5
The winner's will be Al Mann and groups, the institutions like Vanguard who stick it out while continuing to accumulate and the longs who have the stomach to last through the ups and downs. Spiro will be here until the final resolution.
|
|
|
|
Post by kc on Aug 26, 2014 17:29:49 GMT -5
Spiro you have my bottle of Ouzo ready to break open at the party in 2015.
|
|
