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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2014 17:32:13 GMT -5
The shorts interest will be hi until QT 2 or 3 of 2015. There betting on very low sales.If very low interest of Afrezza the shorts make a killing, If very strong sales we see a short squeeze. Like I said will not happen until a couple (6 months at least) of sales. I thought this year was the big year, But This time next year Ill be eating spam or a fine steak. For me the higher the short interest the better at this point for the following reasons: (and this assumes you own your shares and do not margin or depend too heavily on options) 1.) ALL Risk is removed (except some unforeseen black swan event) 2.) Stock share price is (roughly) fairly valued at somewhere between $6.00 and $7.00 given the $990m in upfront and milestone payments, cost structure of the deal, carry forward losses, assets on hand (real property, patents, equipment, insulin, etc) and with bulk of cost associated with R&D being transferred to Sanofi, etc... 3.) Love the inverse correlation to low institutional ownership vs ever higher shares held short... Now I want them to short more... 4.) Like biotec I don't expect a usable revenue history and/or sales patterns to allow for forward looking earnings to be factored into the share price until about Q3/4 of 2015, but once it happens look out... 5.) All the shorts can fall back on is the argument that it won't sell (for a variety of reasons including lack of ins coverage, cancer, pulmonary testing, no fear of needles etc) One by one they have spent their bullets and their ammo is running low... but they still have the one bullet to use and they will... more than once, in next several months... 6.) Given that the stock is pretty close to a fair valuation with current circumstances and none of the above accounts for technosphere or other products, how low can the stock go if sales are slow to start? Under $6.00? (I guess anything is possible) And btw, I fully expect for first 12 months that sales will not be indicative of the success of Afrezza. To me, what is more important is the month over month growth story even if numbers are lower than we would like at the start. In conclusion, and I may be way off, but this is my belief... there are two main take aways (or gifts we have been given from the shorts): 1.) Gift #1: The price has been driven down to it's recent current range ($6.80's to low $7's) and this is a gift from the shorts for those who can take advantage, (and for those that can't, the shorts have left a second gift that we will all be able to take advantage of)
2.) Gift #2: The second gift from the shorts is allowing the creation of "The Perfect Storm," an epic short squeeze, which I know comes around as much as a white whale... Or a blue Lobster...
And while I must confess to not knowing enough about how shorts play the game (and I do recognize they very rarely, if ever, lose,) at some point the stock is going to begin to climb whether it is a slow and steady appreciation or it is a shot to the moon... The numbers just don't lie... With almost 80m shares short and Al Mann plus corp insiders holding 130m plus shares... Institutional ownership will pick up at some point as will retail buying...
The share price is currently at a good valuation between 6 and 7pps, this stock is now just a waiting game... Even the shorts need to know this but they are just not as emotionally "invested" as we are... And so we wait... and accumulate where we can... GLTA!
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Post by biotec on Aug 26, 2014 17:33:22 GMT -5
The winner's will be Al Mann and groups, the institutions like Vanguard who stick it out while continuing to accumulate and the longs who have the stomach to last through the ups and downs. Spiro will be here until the final resolution. Has Vanguard been accumulating? I have respect for Vanguard. I meet John Bogle years ago. He is one hell of a man! |
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Post by spiro on Aug 26, 2014 18:23:54 GMT -5
Biotec, I try to keep an eye on Institutional trends. I can only go back a little ways with numbers from Nasdaq. Vanguard appears to be steadily accumulating. I would assume that now that MNKD has partnered with Sanofi this accumulation will continue, if not intensify by Vanguard and others.
Vanguard Group holdings
09/30/2013 10,060,702
12/31/2013 11,250,991
03/31/2014 13,269,260
06/30/2014 14,020,972
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Post by xoxoxoxo on Aug 26, 2014 19:28:17 GMT -5
Most of the Vanguard shares are just indexes most likely. I wouldn't be too excited about that.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 26, 2014 20:21:03 GMT -5
I've posted this before but I'll post it again. There's a voice in the back of my head that keeps asking "is it possible that Big Al's shorting against the box?" to lock in profit for his foundation. It would be an excellent financial planning tool for him. Able to sell shares without having to make any disclosure.
Trend
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Post by obamayoumama on Aug 26, 2014 20:39:56 GMT -5
I believe that the shorts, to protect their position, shorted much more than the 5 million share increase. Rather they shorted north on 10 million share to keep the stock in check. If they had covered some shares rather than shorting more, who knows how high MNKD might have gone. They made money on "shorting" the news, and were able to control the stock by not allowing it to rise, but fall. Once the shorts were able to control the stock, long investors that were on the "get rich quick" sold. The shorts were able to buy back some of those recently shorted shares cheaper. The shorts also used the usual hit pieces, bad deal, because the stock didn't go up. The reason the news was seen as less than favorable was because they were shorting so heavily.
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 26, 2014 22:57:36 GMT -5
I believe that the shorts, to protect their position, shorted much more than the 5 million share increase. Rather they shorted north on 10 million share to keep the stock in check. If they had covered some shares rather than shorting more, who knows how high MNKD might have gone. They made money on "shorting" the news, and were able to control the stock by not allowing it to rise, but fall. Once the shorts were able to control the stock, long investors that were on the "get rich quick" sold. The shorts were able to buy back some of those recently shorted shares cheaper. The shorts also used the usual hit pieces, bad deal, because the stock didn't go up. The reason the news was seen as less than favorable was because they were shorting so heavily. Cognitive dissonance is a theory that tries to explain why people cling to the same beliefs despite being confronted with conflicting information. People hate to admit to themselves that they made a mistake in judgment. I think this is one reason why so many people hold short positions. Even through binary events where they predicted negative outcomes that did not occur (AdCOM, FDA Approval, and Partnership), they remain dedicated to the belief that this drug will not be successful. Perhaps they can't distinguish between Exubera and Afrezza. But comparing the two is as logical as comparing a Model T and the Tesla Model X. Of course, there are also miscreants at play, since the REG SHO rules have been triggered as failure to delivers have occurred with MNKD. But AF's recent Tweet challenging longs to a bet that Sanofi would back out of the partnership within a year may be a prima facie indicator that at least some of the short position is based on a deeply held belief in the poor prospects for this drug. I do not think Sanofi intends to have this novel addition to the Diabetes toolkit experience less than stellar sales. The testimonials at the ADCOM evidenced that there will be demand. GLTAL Chris-C |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 10, 2014 10:15:39 GMT -5
Since SI comes out after the close today, thought it would be appropriate to bring this back up as opposed to the TA thread especially considering the negative market sentiment today. These posts from 15 days ago could be said again today. With MNKD probing the 200d again today, volume is anemic both daily and weekly, hardly a "sell off" by any means...weekly volume since what I would term the post partnership capitulation week (8-11 - 8/15) is as follows:
8/11-8/15 138.1 mill.
8/18-8/22 30.4 mill.
8/25-8/29 25.0 mill.
9/02-9/05 16.2 mill. (short week due to holiday)
9/08-9/12 11.4 mill. as I type this so far this week
So it is blatantly obvious that the selling on this down leg post partnership announcement is getting fairly dried out as the exhausted longs and volatility traders have sold out and what we have left are the long term longs and the SI that remains from 8-15 thru today. How much of that 55 mill. in volume from 8/15 - 8/29 was short covering we'll know after today's close. No surprise of the test today with overall market under a bit of pressure this week, keep an eye on the 10yr. treasury as it tests the 2.55 area in yield. The worry over the fed "raising rates" is what is being tabbed as the reason for the market's inability to hold 2000 level on the S&P. If you believe Yellen is a part of the "tri" dove continuation of Greenspan and Bernanke then I wouldn't suspect much in the way of any real "hawkish" tone other than the rumblings from a few of the fed members. They will not jeopardize everything that got them to this point until they feel/believe it is self sustaining IMO.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 10, 2014 13:50:01 GMT -5
So it is blatantly obvious that the selling on this down leg post partnership announcement is getting fairly dried out as the exhausted longs and volatility traders have sold out and what we have left are the long term longs and the SI that remains from 8-15 thru today. How much of that 55 mill. in volume from 8/15 - 8/29 was short covering we'll know after today's close. No surprise of the test today with overall market under a bit of pressure this week, keep an eye on the 10yr. treasury as it tests the 2.55 area in yield. So what does it mean when we close below the 200 day SMA? |
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Post by abcschuetze on Sept 10, 2014 14:41:59 GMT -5
LUBI54 schrieb am 10.09.14 17:22:33 Beitrag Nr. 1.613 (47.745.540)
short per 9.9.2014
2014-09-09 MNKD Mannkind Corp 819635 1329213 2148848 38%
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Post by liane on Sept 10, 2014 15:05:15 GMT -5
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
8/29/2014 74,067,605 6,004,525 12.335298
8/15/2014 77,343,842 17,109,430 4.520539
---It's gone down!
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Post by Chris-C on Sept 10, 2014 18:15:40 GMT -5
Regarding the large short position (paradoxical as it is- but that's our market folks- designed to enable profit taking any which way a creative greedy mind can manage): I've often wondered what would result if MNKD did a reverse split of 3:1 or so? That would lower the number of shares outstanding, increase the share price to a level where it might deter casual "players", and in theory reduce the number of shares available for shorting. On the other hand, it provides more "room" to drop the price. Can anyone comment on this from the standpoint of likely consequences and previous experience? Thanks in advance. GLTAL Chris-C Disclosure: Long and strong, acquiring on dips  . IMHO, this is a no brainer long investment for investors with patience. Traders expecting quick returns need not apply. Those prospects were dashed when the company got its second CRL, thanks to short crookery. |
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Post by liane on Sept 10, 2014 18:51:01 GMT -5
A reverse split does nothing to change the fundamentals of the situation. It is usually done to prevent de-listing on an exchange.
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 10, 2014 19:27:56 GMT -5
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover 8/29/2014 74,067,605 6,004,525 12.335298 8/15/2014 77,343,842 17,109,430 4.520539 ---It's gone down! Shorts are being routed now, look at 'em running for cover (they apparently have leaned to cover and still make the price go down)!!! I don't believe we actually had a lower number, this is a sea change, a watershed, a whole new ball game! LOL! |
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Post by liane on Sept 10, 2014 19:41:49 GMT -5
baba,
Your sarcasm is overwhelming - lol!
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. IMHO, this is a no brainer long investment for investors with patience. Traders expecting quick returns need not apply. Those prospects were dashed when the company got its second CRL, thanks to short crookery.
