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Post by alethea on Aug 25, 2014 13:08:28 GMT -5
Shares short as of Aug 15 will be published tomorrow (Aug 26) after hours. I'm wondering how many there will be. This figure will include shares traded thru Aug 12 trade date, which settled 3 days later on Aug 15.
Partnership was announced on Monday, Aug 11. Shares traded on Aug 11 and Aug 12 were 62 M and 44 M respectively. Massive volume. Shares appeared to trade up on Monday for ONLY about the first hour and a half or maybe two hours. After that it appeared to be intense shorting the rest of the day and for the entire day on Tuesday.
I think it was INTENSE manipulation via short selling by Wall Street on those 2 days to crash the share price. I think their short position actually increased from the 72 M reported as of July 31.
I think we see short shares tomorrow increased by several million shares. IF so, to me that is a very positive sign of mid-term price appreciation. Gotta cover sometime. Such an increase would be strong evidence of a powerful effort to artificially depress the price.
Current shares short of 72+ M are already at an all-time high. Very interested to see what happens tomorrow.
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Post by kc on Aug 25, 2014 13:54:43 GMT -5
Agree with you on more shorts.
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 25, 2014 16:05:31 GMT -5
Shares short as of Aug 15 will be published tomorrow (Aug 26) after hours. I'm wondering how many there will be. This figure will include shares traded thru Aug 12 trade date, which settled 3 days later on Aug 15. Partnership was announced on Monday, Aug 11. Shares traded on Aug 11 and Aug 12 were 62 M and 44 M respectively. Massive volume. Shares appeared to trade up on Monday for ONLY about the first hour and a half or maybe two hours. After that it appeared to be intense shorting the rest of the day and for the entire day on Tuesday. I think it was INTENSE manipulation via short selling by Wall Street on those 2 days to crash the share price. I think their short position actually increased from the 72 M reported as of July 31. I think we see short shares tomorrow increased by several million shares. IF so, to me that is a very positive sign of mid-term price appreciation. Gotta cover sometime. Such an increase would be strong evidence of a powerful effort to artificially depress the price. Current shares short of 72+ M are already at an all-time high. Very interested to see what happens tomorrow. Alathea: You are probably correct, and it will be interesting to see. Of course, the counterintuitive direction of the market play not only suggests manipulation, it may also mask a significant fear that the deal Mannkind executed with Sanofi could unleash a huge potential appreciation when sales start rolling in. I'm actually surprised that they have not been able to drop the price further. Perhaps too many longs are hungry for bargain shares, and buying when it nudges into the sixes. I know I'm tempted. On another board they posted a tweet by the consummate short basher AF, who seems to be a specialist in generating FUD for biotech startups that eventually become blockbusters. The tweet was a friendly bet made by AF that within a year, Sanofi would be out of the partnership, with the inference being apparently that sales would be so dismal that they would want to cut their losses. Of course, if Sanofi decided to use its cache of shares to finance a buyout, that would also nullify the partnership. Unfortunately, these masters of innuendo and deceit can create fear by relying on the ignorance of starry eyed speculators looking for get rich quick plays. Sadly, too many people speculate based on hallway chatter, and they can usually be caught buying high and bailing out when the miscreants drop the price and trigger weak hands and stop losses. There is good money to be made by the unethical exploiting the unwary. So, in addition to high short interest figures, I think AF's steadfast campaign points to some pretty positive news down the line. Frankly, my biggest worry is a buyout at less than what I would consider fair market value, since it is so difficult to put a dollar figure on potential sales given that what ultimately matters is execution. That's why having a partner that knows how to execute is so significant. If the chatter about MEDT has any merit, it's anybody's guess what the addition of that company to the equation might do. Personally, I'd be having a difficult time sleeping if my stake was in shorted shares. Days to cover could drive a loss up pretty swiftly if a squeeze got started. People have speculated that Mr. Mann might take some pleasure in that. Alternative or additional viewpoints are always invited and appreciated! GLTAL Chris-C |
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Post by kc on Aug 25, 2014 16:31:55 GMT -5
What impact is the lack of institutional holders.
MNKD institutional ownership is very low. I can't figure that out? Why is it so low compared to say InterMune who has 95% institutional ownership?
I was trying to draw comparisons about that transaction today to MNKD
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Aug 25, 2014 18:26:42 GMT -5
KC, I have been wondering the same thing. I also would like to know if 22% is standard for biotech's in developing stages, and if the lack of institutional holders will reflect negatively on the stock for the foreseeable future, or if there is an expectation that the % of institutional holders will continue to grow now that Mannkind has a straight path to commercialization.
Opinions will be highly appreciated.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 25, 2014 18:33:16 GMT -5
On another board they posted a tweet by the consummate short basher AF, who seems to be a specialist in generating FUD for biotech startups that eventually become blockbusters. The tweet was a friendly bet made by AF that within a year, Sanofi would be out of the partnership, with the inference being apparently that sales would be so dismal that they would want to cut their losses. Wow... I bet Sanofi regrets what they've done, now that revered diabetes market expert AF has weighed in. Why oh why did Sanofi do a deal in an area they know so little about when they could have consulted an expert like AF first. Ha! Made myself laugh. |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 25, 2014 18:42:19 GMT -5
kc, Could it be that institutions, seeing the number of shorts and the postures of lying sacks like AF and his ilk, decided to stay away until it was further de-risked (as in NOW), and lower in price (as in NOW). Is it possible that institutional investors know the power of shorts and bad publicity better than we? LOL! C'mon, Spiro, get in this thread, it's got your name written all over it!!
Chris-C, agree with much of what you say, but when you start talking about a short-squeeze, although Al and the rest of us would love it, the chances are overwhelmingly against (note all of the great short squeeze opps in the past several months - all we get is a teeny-tiny squeeze that works for about half hour, then our grip lightens and we're done in. While the past is no guarantee of the future, it's a strong indication.
Finally, as to the short position to be announced tomorrow - alethea, you make a cogent argument, but I'm going with a small decrease, into the high 60 millions.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 25, 2014 18:46:44 GMT -5
On another board they posted a tweet by the consummate short basher AF, who seems to be a specialist in generating FUD for biotech startups that eventually become blockbusters. The tweet was a friendly bet made by AF that within a year, Sanofi would be out of the partnership, with the inference being apparently that sales would be so dismal that they would want to cut their losses. Wow... I bet Sanofi regrets what they've done, now that revered diabetes market expert AF has weighed in. Why oh why did Sanofi do a deal in an area they know so little about when they could have consulted an expert like AF first. Ha! Made myself laugh. DBC, man, open your eyes!! If AF and his boys could outfox and outflank the brain power on this board, the brass at Sanofi had absolutely zero chance to see this coming!!  Or could it be that Sanofi is in league with AF and will also act to cleverly hold sales down, buy out MNKD at a depressed price and then open up the sales' valves. Gosh, I think like a crook! Well, I am an attorney.... |
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Post by BD on Aug 25, 2014 19:41:23 GMT -5
kc, Could it be that institutions, seeing the number of shorts and the postures of lying sacks like AF and his ilk, decided to stay away until it was further de-risked (as in NOW), and lower in price (as in NOW). Is it possible that institutional investors know the power of shorts and bad publicity better than we? LOL! C'mon, Spiro, get in this thread, it's got your name written all over it!! Chris-C, agree with much of what you say, but when you start talking about a short-squeeze, although Al and the rest of us would love it, the chances are overwhelmingly against (note all of the great short squeeze opps in the past several months - all we get is a teeny-tiny squeeze that works for about half hour, then our grip lightens and we're done in. While the past is no guarantee of the future, it's a strong indication. Finally, as to the short position to be announced tomorrow - alethea, you make a cogent argument, but I'm going with a small decrease, into the high 60 millions. Hey baba, try an experiment: instead of putting other members' names in bold, just precede them in your post with an '@' sign. Like babaoriley ... neat effect with less effort! |
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Post by ezrasfund on Aug 26, 2014 9:07:20 GMT -5
Schwab returned my borrowed shares yesterday, so I am guessing that MNKD is no longer HTB. Also note that the trading volume has returned to normal and the churning has stopped for the moment. My thought is that there was some significant short covering.
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Post by kc on Aug 26, 2014 9:43:26 GMT -5
Interesting observation. Fidelity was on the HTB list on Monday at 18.75% Today its dripped to 15.75% so perhaps that indicates a drop in the number of short shares. Schwab returned my borrowed shares yesterday, so I am guessing that MNKD is no longer HTB. Also note that the trading volume has returned to normal and the churning has stopped for the moment. My thought is that there was some significant short covering. |
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 26, 2014 12:46:32 GMT -5
Ezra, same here, noticed last night that the my shares lent (Schwab) were returned. Would be difficult to understand if still HTB. I'm guessing mid to upper 60mm short shares
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Post by vissertrades on Aug 26, 2014 15:07:10 GMT -5
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover 8/15/2014 77,343,842 17,109,430 4.520539 7/31/2014 72,584,807 7,791,571 9.315812 7/15/2014 71,777,133 8,642,379 8.305252 6/30/2014 67,874,816 14,447,082 4.698168 6/13/2014 69,425,357 15,169,473 4.576649 5/30/2014 68,246,601 11,207,127 6.089571 5/15/2014 68,035,239 6,058,257 11.230167 4/30/2014 65,647,607 4,865,107 13.493559 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz3BWxVIt4S |
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Post by mnkdd on Aug 26, 2014 15:12:32 GMT -5
Wow, shorts are getting greedy. I get shorting after "the news" came out, but do they really think there's more downside? LOL
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Post by kc on Aug 26, 2014 15:17:29 GMT -5
Notice the days to cover change quite a bit when the volume spikes like it did for about a week or two. So this picture is really distorted a bit.
Shares Daily avg Days to cover
8/15/2014 77,343,842 17,109,430 4.520539
7/31/2014 72,584,807 7,791,571 9.315812
So did they increase since they know there is that much blood in the water.
How many outstanding shares that are held by Mann and Institutional holders? What % of stock is that?
How can one determine if the shares shorted are Naked?
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Or could it be that Sanofi is in league with AF and will also act to cleverly hold sales down, buy out MNKD at a depressed price and then open up the sales' valves. Gosh, I think like a crook! Well, I am an attorney....
