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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 21, 2021 8:44:07 GMT -5
There's likely no chance Mannkind would even consider selling with a growing and expanding pipeline and promising future. UTHR nor any BP can simply come in and buy Mannkind near it's current market valuation. Even a hostile takeover attempt would be decided by shareholders which are largely controlled or influenced by Mannkind management. IMO, if UTHR offered to buy MNKD today at $20, my vote would not just be no, but hell no as the near-term future is far too bright for that. I will qualify this by saying I'm a long-term investor, not a speculative trader. If I was the latter, which many here probably are, then $20 would be awesome  |
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Post by morfu on Apr 21, 2021 9:02:52 GMT -5
I did some caculations and Mannkind's revenue will increase to approx. 200 million come the end of 2023 with the inclusion of Tyvaso Dpi (60 million in 2022 and 120 million in 2023 based on United's forecast of patients moving to tyvaso DPI and then the continued expansion into other markets) and a continued gradual increase in Afrezza sales. That would put us at PSR (P/S Ratio) of 5 with our current market cap of roughly 1 billion. The typical large bio company has a PSR of between 5 and 7. Mannkind would therefore be on the low side. PSR of 7 would put us at a stock price of about 6. We need additional revenue streams for possible share price increase. For instance, United therapeutics had revenues of 1.5 billion in 2020 and has a market cap of 9 billion. Roughly a PSR of 6. They probably will increase revenues from Tyvaso DPI alone by 500 million between now and 2023, bringing their market cap up to 12 billion with all other sales remaining the same. Well, right now we have just shy of $250Mil shares, the share price increase should be proportional to that extra revenue, which mean a plus of about $200mil/250mil*PSR. However, in my opinion Mannkind is still undervalued and somewhat cash strapped (beside the deals they made last month) So your numbers look like a significant improvement for the company and should further improve the share price. I think your resulting $6/share are way too low if this scenario would become true.. but it also seems to show that the biggest danger to future share prices is dilution of any kind..
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Post by gamblerjag on Apr 21, 2021 9:19:59 GMT -5
If I could spell without any voice activated grammatical airs (lol), that's what I would have said!!!  There is not one reason to believe a buyout is in the immediate future. Just listening to Mikes tone about the future tells us that. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Apr 21, 2021 9:54:38 GMT -5
If I could spell without any voice activated grammatical airs (lol), that's what I would have said!!! There is not one reason to believe a buyout is in the immediate future. Just listening to Mikes tone about the future tells us that. A buyout is the farthest from Mike's mind. There is too much value wrapped up in MNKD and the BOD will be justified not accepting any 30% increase (which is the normal premium). True potential could be north of $10 Billion for MNKD. It will take time to get there but I don't see any company paying $10B now so ENJOY THE RIDE FOLKS. |
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 21, 2021 10:20:07 GMT -5
There's likely no chance Mannkind would even consider selling with a growing and expanding pipeline and promising future. UTHR nor any BP can simply come in and buy Mannkind near it's current market valuation. Even a hostile takeover attempt would be decided by shareholders which are largely controlled or influenced by Mannkind management. IMO, if UTHR offered to buy MNKD today at $20, my vote would not just be no, but hell no as the near-term future is far too bright for that. I will qualify this by saying I'm a long-term investor, not a speculative trader. If I was the latter, which many here probably are, then $20 would be awesome An offer of $20 per share would not be a hostile takeover, it would fly through and be approved rapidly by MNKD. But not to worry, such an offer is not forthcoming. |
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Post by awesomo on Apr 21, 2021 10:31:38 GMT -5
The highest acquisition premium since 2015 in biopharma is 282% with the average being around 60-70%. So let’s just put these wild buyout prices to rest please.
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Post by obamayoumama on Apr 21, 2021 10:44:09 GMT -5
I did some caculations and Mannkind's revenue will increase to approx. 200 million come the end of 2023 with the inclusion of Tyvaso Dpi (60 million in 2022 and 120 million in 2023 based on United's forecast of patients moving to tyvaso DPI and then the continued expansion into other markets) and a continued gradual increase in Afrezza sales. That would put us at PSR (P/S Ratio) of 5 with our current market cap of roughly 1 billion. The typical large bio company has a PSR of between 5 and 7. Mannkind would therefore be on the low side. PSR of 7 would put us at a stock price of about 6. We need additional revenue streams for possible share price increase. For instance, United therapeutics had revenues of 1.5 billion in 2020 and has a market cap of 9 billion. Roughly a PSR of 6. They probably will increase revenues from Tyvaso DPI alone by 500 million between now and 2023, bringing their market cap up to 12 billion with all other sales remaining the same. Well, right now we have just shy of $250Mil shares, the share price increase should be proportional to that extra revenue, which mean a plus of about $200mil/250mil*PSR. However, in my opinion Mannkind is still undervalued and somewhat cash strapped (beside the deals they made last month) So your numbers look like a significant improvement for the company and should further improve the share price. I think your resulting $6/share are way too low if this scenario would become true.. but it also seems to show that the biggest danger to future share prices is dilution of any kind..
Revenue- cost of goods sold- sales expense-management expense=ebita Royalty- zero expense= ebita. This royalty stream is worth a 20+ Multiple 100 million in revenue would be at least in my opinion worth over 2 billion. That alone should put MNKD at $8.00+. Add in the other possibilities for approval and worldwide sales of Afrezza and you can see why the potential is huge in my opinion |
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Post by gamblerjag on Apr 21, 2021 10:48:22 GMT -5
You are right Awesomo. There should be no talk of ridiculous buyout prices.. There should be no buyout talk at all... it's just basically noise.
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Post by casualinvestor on Apr 21, 2021 12:29:12 GMT -5
Uthr will do whatever is best for uthr. If you are expecting to pay annual royalties of X to a company, and that company's market cap is 5X, you will at least think about buying the whole company. Furthermore, if you are considering buying the company in makes sense to do it before you start the royalty payments which will increase the market cap and how much you will need to pay for the company. Not speculation. Just math. How does MNKD's losses on the books affect that math? In the past that's been brought up as increasing the value of buying MNKD. I don't think UTHR wants to buy MNKD, for many many reasons that I don't have any proof for. I also think they would financially oppose a buyout by another company, to protect their future pipeline. |
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Post by uvula on Apr 21, 2021 12:34:03 GMT -5
Uthr will do whatever is best for uthr. If you are expecting to pay annual royalties of X to a company, and that company's market cap is 5X, you will at least think about buying the whole company. Furthermore, if you are considering buying the company in makes sense to do it before you start the royalty payments which will increase the market cap and how much you will need to pay for the company. Not speculation. Just math. How does MNKD's losses on the books affect that math? In the past that's been brought up as increasing the value of buying MNKD. I don't think UTHR wants to buy MNKD, for many many reasons that I don't have any proof for. I also think they would financially oppose a buyout by another company, to protect their future pipeline. You just mentioned a good reason for uthr to buy mnkd. If a competitor bought mnkd, uthr would have to scramble to duplicate the manufacturing capability. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 21, 2021 13:04:55 GMT -5
There's likely no chance Mannkind would even consider selling with a growing and expanding pipeline and promising future. UTHR nor any BP can simply come in and buy Mannkind near it's current market valuation. Even a hostile takeover attempt would be decided by shareholders which are largely controlled or influenced by Mannkind management. IMO, if UTHR offered to buy MNKD today at $20, my vote would not just be no, but hell no as the near-term future is far too bright for that. I will qualify this by saying I'm a long-term investor, not a speculative trader. If I was the latter, which many here probably are, then $20 would be awesome An offer of $20 per share would not be a hostile takeover, it would fly through and be approved rapidly by MNKD. But not to worry, such an offer is not forthcoming. Yes it would and Mannkind has always been for sale. The guys that are making videos or seeing it as a buy out target...it’s because they’re looking at it for the first time and correctly see us as a growing company with a pipeline that could be robust under the right circumstances. Although it’s more complicated than that and they haven’t been around long enough to understand it. |
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Post by morfu on Apr 21, 2021 13:26:46 GMT -5
Well, right now we have just shy of $250Mil shares, the share price increase should be proportional to that extra revenue, which mean a plus of about $200mil/250mil*PSR. However, in my opinion Mannkind is still undervalued and somewhat cash strapped (beside the deals they made last month) So your numbers look like a significant improvement for the company and should further improve the share price. I think your resulting $6/share are way too low if this scenario would become true.. but it also seems to show that the biggest danger to future share prices is dilution of any kind..
Revenue- cost of goods sold- sales expense-management expense=ebita Royalty- zero expense= ebita. This royalty stream is worth a 20+ Multiple 100 million in revenue would be at least in my opinion worth over 2 billion. That alone should put MNKD at $8.00+. Add in the other possibilities for approval and worldwide sales of Afrezza and you can see why the potential is huge in my opinion Yes, you are correct with your difference between Revenue and Royalty.. I have seen numbers between 40% and 50% for the cost/sales expense for Afrezza (getting lower with increasing sales) IMHO further reduced as Mannkind can claim taxes credits against these costs. Either way, I think we can treat Royalties+ x*Revenue as one number in that model!? Can you elaborate a bit more what "20+ Multiple 100 million" means?
Celo´s model was talking about roughly $200mil extra and more than $120mil in 2023 as expected Royalty + some Revenue and a PSR of maximal 7.
Now I see two points from there,
- take these $200Mil as a net worth increase as I did and estimate the resulting gain per share. BTW this neglects any costs over the next 2.5 years offsetting that value, I say that is already priced into the current share value - Or -and I think that is more important and follows your argument (somewhat)- argue that this extra value has the possibility to transform Mannkind into a stable green $$$ state, which seems priceless!
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Post by celo on Apr 21, 2021 13:27:36 GMT -5
Well, right now we have just shy of $250Mil shares, the share price increase should be proportional to that extra revenue, which mean a plus of about $200mil/250mil*PSR. However, in my opinion Mannkind is still undervalued and somewhat cash strapped (beside the deals they made last month) So your numbers look like a significant improvement for the company and should further improve the share price. I think your resulting $6/share are way too low if this scenario would become true.. but it also seems to show that the biggest danger to future share prices is dilution of any kind..
Revenue- cost of goods sold- sales expense-management expense=ebita Royalty- zero expense= ebita. This royalty stream is worth a 20+ Multiple 100 million in revenue would be at least in my opinion worth over 2 billion. That alone should put MNKD at $8.00+. Add in the other possibilities for approval and worldwide sales of Afrezza and you can see why the potential is huge in my opinion I agree with the idea that potential is huge. There are right now 3 products that are currently in phase 3 or actively being sold. The rest are at phase 1 or less. I would like to see those moving forward faster as the process from phase 1 to approval is at least multiple years. One caveat, for Tyvaso DPI approval was extremely rapid and the case can now be made that any nebulized medication could be shown to be more effective and approved rapidly. Interest shown for one of these transitions could destabilize a market and both mannkind and their partner would probably want to keep it quiet until it is shown to have a possibility of approval to maintain as much market share as possible from competitors. Other indications for Tyvaso Dpi look to be growing. Any of the factors I described above could pop the stock up quite a bit in the very short term while the market tries to digest what it means to Mannkind's bottom line. Mannkind now has the money to research them. |
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Post by morfu on Apr 21, 2021 13:40:47 GMT -5
Revenue- cost of goods sold- sales expense-management expense=ebita Royalty- zero expense= ebita. This royalty stream is worth a 20+ Multiple 100 million in revenue would be at least in my opinion worth over 2 billion. That alone should put MNKD at $8.00+. Add in the other possibilities for approval and worldwide sales of Afrezza and you can see why the potential is huge in my opinion I agree with the idea that potential is huge. There are right now 3 products that are currently in phase 3 or actively being sold. The rest are at phase 1 or less. I would like to see those moving forward faster as the process from phase 1 to approval is at least multiple years. One caveat, for Tyvaso DPI approval was extremely rapid and the case can now be made that any nebulized medication could be shown to be more effective and approved rapidly. Interest shown for one of these transitions could destabilize a market and both mannkind and their partner would probably want to keep it quiet until it is shown to have a possibility of approval to maintain as much market share as possible from competitors. Other indications for Tyvaso Dpi look to be growing. Any of the factors I described above could pop the stock up quite a bit in the very short term while the market tries to digest what it means to Mannkind's bottom line. Mannkind now has the money to research them. This is kind of the point I was trying to make and seems to fit somewhat into the parallel discussion about a potential buyout.. After all the potential price in 2023 or a current buyout price should be related.. I like your approach, take one product and try to pin a price tag over the next 2.5years to it.. with all uncertainties, an estimate is always better than no estimate.. The harder part IMHO is, what is possible with the pipeline and worldwide markets once Mannkind has a little money to explore new avenues..
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Post by buyitonsale on Apr 21, 2021 14:33:41 GMT -5
Cash Flow Break Even is the first milestone to be reached.
After that the company will be evaluated much more favorably from the acquisition point of view. Nobody wants to buy a cash burn liability IMO.
Plus NOL (Net Operating Loss) will be in play at that point as well.
I do not believe that MNKD BOD is planning or entertaining an idea of being acquired, unless an offer comes along.
I think that in 2022, after the first profitable quarter this discussion can have a lot more substance.
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There is not one reason to believe a buyout is in the immediate future. Just listening to Mikes tone about the future tells us that.
