|
|
Post by Clement on Apr 22, 2021 14:19:56 GMT -5
PERFECT study COPD -- maybe product launch in early 2024? Did UTHR say when is projected product launch? See below: Actual Study Start Date : June 27, 2018 Estimated Primary Completion Date : July 31, 2022 Estimated Study Completion Date : July 31, 2022 clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03496623 |
|
|
|
Post by uvula on Apr 22, 2021 14:19:59 GMT -5
If I remember correctly the building is sized for many lines but they initially only built 1 or 2. With the recent expansion they may have built a few more lines.
|
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Apr 22, 2021 14:30:39 GMT -5
If I remember correctly ... it was built to accommodate 3 lines ... but they found out that it was more efficient to run 1 line and have more shifts.
But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
|
Post by liane on Apr 22, 2021 14:37:01 GMT -5
If I remember correctly the building is sized for many lines but they initially only built 1 or 2. With the recent expansion they may have built a few more lines. This is an early article - no date on it, but maybe 2010-ish.
New construction work involved the addition of 16,723 square metres to the plant. This phase of work involved installation of two fill and two packaging suites with associated support rooms. Each of these suites can accommodate three fill / packaging lines.
|
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 22, 2021 14:48:25 GMT -5
The build has a footprint capable of housing 12 lines. Currently they have 3 lines installed.
OOG
|
|
|
|
Post by ryster505 on Apr 22, 2021 15:26:06 GMT -5
The build has a footprint capable of housing 12 lines. Currently they have 3 lines installed. OOG Sheeeeeewwww! Sounds like a lot of future $ to me... |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Apr 23, 2021 12:26:44 GMT -5
Yes, you are correct with your difference between Revenue and Royalty.. I have seen numbers between 40% and 50% for the cost/sales expense for Afrezza (getting lower with increasing sales) IMHO further reduced as Mannkind can claim taxes credits against these costs. Either way, I think we can treat Royalties+ x*Revenue as one number in that model!? Can you elaborate a bit more what "20+ Multiple 100 million" means?
Celo´s model was talking about roughly $200mil extra and more than $120mil in 2023 as expected Royalty + some Revenue and a PSR of maximal 7.
Now I see two points from there,
- take these $200Mil as a net worth increase as I did and estimate the resulting gain per share. BTW this neglects any costs over the next 2.5 years offsetting that value, I say that is already priced into the current share value  - Or -and I think that is more important and follows your argument (somewhat)- argue that this extra value has the possibility to transform Mannkind into a stable green $$$ state, which seems priceless!
What would an investor pay for 100 million in royalty payments. Those payments go straight to the bottom line. My guess is the market would value that royalty stream at a multiple of the annual royalty stream. My guess it would command 20+ multiple, hence 2 billion, not including Afrezza worldwide potential and other drugs added to the pipeline in the future. If an investor were truly buying just this royalty payment stream, assuming no approval risk and assuming the royalty stream estimate to be accepted as highly likely to be what is realized, it would be a simple NPV calculation going out to when the technology falls off patent, which would discount with some rate of return above current risk free rate. Likely not 20 times yearly revenue stream, though luckily there may be a lot of value created with growing confidence there will be additional uses for technosphere. |
|
|
|
Post by cedafuntennis on Apr 23, 2021 12:31:53 GMT -5
And let's not forget the almost $2B tax loss carry over we will enjoy once we start having a profit to report.
|
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Apr 23, 2021 12:47:31 GMT -5
Royalty revenue stream will be $100M within two years.
However, the potential for 4 years from now is $150M to $200M, according to numbers presented by UTHR. This increase is driven by not only PAH and PH-ILD, but also by IPF and COPD. See Peppy's slide above. COPD study completion is estimated to be July, 2022.
Now, do an NPV calculation on that.
|
|
|
|
Post by pat on Apr 23, 2021 19:56:58 GMT -5
There are a lot of potential revenue streams to come from technosphere applications in the years ahead. Money to invest in the development and the marketing of them could accelerate their fruition. snowball! More money could beget more money
|
|
