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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 5, 2022 17:14:52 GMT -5
OH Pee Chee !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 5, 2022 18:33:37 GMT -5
Good poll akemp. I voted for the first category, since I already gave my prediction that it’ll move us to the $4 to $5 range (hopefully closer to $5). But wouldn’t be surprised at a “peak” (or a “peek”) into the 5 to 6 range, just not expecting that to hold, if it happens. A month ago when we were higher in share price, I was hoping for $6 to $8 from approval, but we’ve been smacked down so low hence my revision. This feels like playing roulette though, in other words I have no idea what to really expect. Been wrong too many times about share price action from positive events… I’m between 5-6.. I just wonder how much it’s going to depend on the label, and I don’t think the peak will hold either until the revenue comes in. I am between 5-6 also but the label is key longer term. If it has no black box and no spirometry requirement then why should afrezza? Once the kids are approved maybe these will get dropped from the current label. |
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 5, 2022 19:57:28 GMT -5
Is it less cronic than diabetes (.AFREZZA) then maybe 🤞
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Post by kenken on Feb 5, 2022 21:46:32 GMT -5
Can I have another vote on what happens if UTHR is not approved in Q1 or Q2 or even more?
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 6, 2022 7:23:33 GMT -5
Between $6-$8 on the initial news. Afterwards, you could get analyst upgrades after some work is put into the revenue side and we can see small price increases and action related to that. But, I expect bigger action on the announcement of the actual revenue numbers and if we can beat on the top and bottom line, along with guidance in the quarters still to come. So, the initial approval could mark the beginning of that move to $8 - $9, for longer term.
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 6, 2022 10:14:33 GMT -5
IMO, there’s a question whether or not the next move up after approval will have to wait on revenue to come in later this year or will there be follow up interest or an announcement or two much sooner? It would not be surprising to learn the UTHR approval triggers more action such as a significant buy-in or a new molecule announcement. The possibility of a global partner for Afrezza, hinted at previously, could appear knowing TS will now gain legs from UTHR but I don't anticipate this until pediatric approval comes in. There have also been unrelated surprise announcements without advance knowledge. The Q4 results are near and could be interesting. Hopefully, a move up begins this coming week.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 6, 2022 11:08:16 GMT -5
Can I have another vote on what happens if UTHR is not approved in Q1 or Q2 or even more? Yes. Check the UTHR stock price. It’s not trading near all-time highs regardless of the pending approval but because of it. Those votes are being made by institutional investors. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Feb 6, 2022 18:58:39 GMT -5
If our approval is delayed again that will hit us hard, especially considering lqda,s product was tentatively approved already!!! If that happens I will have to question WTH is going on... And so will the market...
Afrezza marketing etc has already given us a black eye!!!
By all accounts the ONLY problem that held up approval in October (supposedly) was a problem with a 3rd party lab
... I am confident that the lab issue has been corrected!!!
Technosphere needs validation!!! We need another deal with UTHR and plans for our next molecule.. we need Tyvaso to be successful!!! Then it's off to the races!!!
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 7, 2022 11:44:51 GMT -5
My thought on stock price is that with the approval to Tyvaso, MNKD shifts from being a drug development company to becoming a drug company's manufacture. Essentially the difference between being Taiwan Semiconductor and NVDA from a PE multiple perspective. The street is going to look at MNKD that way until it can successfully develop and market a drug. The Pediatric approval and successful revenue generation of a pediatric solution for PWD is the next inflection point that will allow MNKD to see drug company type PE multiples.
I believe MNKD moves to the upper $4 range with approval of Tyvaso, maybe low 5's. I have a built a macro model that measures Tyvaso's impact on MNKD stock price at annual revenue run rate points. It uses MNKD's Q3 21 income statement, and Tyvaso reaching certain revenue run rates. It assumes no additional approval beyond Tyvaso and no additional announcements of partnerships or molecules, but takes into account the continued potential value of the current product pipeline. Additional Tyvaso assumptions: 10% royalty on sales, 15% cost to manufacture, MNKD margin on manufacture (cost+ model) is 3.5%, a PE multiple of 30 given we are a drug manufacture not a drug company, and 275mm shares outstanding. Pretty conservative estimates. Given all that, when Tyvaso hits annual revenue run rates of $500mm, $1 billion and $1.5 billion I project MNKD stock will be $6.50-7.50, $9.50-10.50, and $15-17 respectively.
For anyone who is interested, all things being consistent with Q3 21 and factoring out onetime events (interest charges related to Mann Group, extinguishment of 17.2mm in debt, and the change in interest paid on debt), the model says MNKD should hit CF break even about the time Tyvaso hits 343mm in annual revenue.
Can't wait to hear everyone's thoughts. I am happy to run the model with other people's estimates. You will need to provide: PE multiple, royalty%, manufacture cost, manufacture margin, shares outstanding and annual revenue for Tyvaso for me to run the model.
I am also interested in hearing peoples thoughts on when Tyvaso hitting major revenue run rate points (monthly revenue times 12).
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Post by cedafuntennis on Feb 7, 2022 11:50:56 GMT -5
Are you taking into account that UTH is reimbursing MNKD for the manufacturing costs also? I believe it is at cost +.
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 7, 2022 12:05:03 GMT -5
Are you taking into account that UTH is reimbursing MNKD for the manufacturing costs also? I believe it is at cost +. Yes. My conservative estimate is that gross margin before MNKD mark up on Tyvaso will be 85%, leaving a cost of 15% of revenue and a margin to MNKD on the cost of 3.5%, which puts the total Tyvaso gross margin at 81.5% which is in line with industry averages. Industry average gross margin in 81%, where I might be getting this wrong in my assumption is that UTHR's gross margin is 93%. If MNKD is matching UTHR's existing gross margin, it negatively impacts the models MNKD stock price $.13 at $500mm in Tyvaso run rate, $.27 at $1 billion, and $.4 at 1.5 billion. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 7, 2022 14:27:49 GMT -5
And when MNKD starts paying out dividends ... what are your numbers then  But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 7, 2022 14:43:15 GMT -5
And when MNKD starts paying out dividends ... what are your numbers then  But, that's mytakeonit $100 I had to say that, just had to.  |
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Post by celo on Feb 7, 2022 14:52:45 GMT -5
If something has a strong chance of occurring, in this case 75% that Tyvaso DPI will be approved (from what I have read, this is definitely my opinion), then the stock should already have that reflected in the price. Therefore, MNKD will probably move in the 20-30% range upon approval, maybe less. If it does not get approved, which has a 25% chance of happening then it will move strongly to the downside, somewhere probably in the 50-60% range.
This is all short term. Long term, as the uptake of Tyvaso DPI plays out, MNKD stock will move accordingly. That is where there is a lot of unknowns are. As revenue flows in from sales, sales are showing profits, reviews of users are positive, then you will see a gradual rise to in share price to what it is worth to Mannkind's bottom line.
Point is, a large move for something that has a high chance of occurring doesn't make sense. Investors take into account risk and invest accordingly. Sale/purchase orderers are based on those odds and are therefore, "baked in"
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 7, 2022 15:05:34 GMT -5
If something has a strong chance of occurring, in this case 75% that Tyvaso DPI will be approved (from what I have read, this is definitely my opinion), then the stock should already have that reflected in the price. Therefore, MNKD will probably move in the 20-30% range upon approval, maybe less. If it does not get approved, which has a 25% chance of happening then it will move strongly to the downside, somewhere probably in the 50-60% range. This is all short term. Long term, as the uptake of Tyvaso DPI plays out, MNKD stock will move accordingly. That is where there is a lot of unknowns are. As revenue flows in from sales, sales are showing profits, reviews of users are positive, then you will see a gradual rise to in share price to what it is worth to Mannkind's bottom line. Point is, a large move for something that has a high chance of occurring doesn't make sense. Investors take into account risk and invest accordingly. Sale/purchase orderers are based on those odds and are therefore, "baked in" MNKD was trading at $5.37 prior to UTHR receiving the CRL. Upon receipt, it quickly dropped to $4.15. It is currently trading around $3.75. It does not appear that approval is "baked in". |
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