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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 7, 2022 20:52:24 GMT -5
castlerockchris, appreciate the well-reasoned analysis. PE is a function of earnings growth as much as industry comps. If Tyvaso DPI is approved and UTHR sells it well, our earnings growth rate would be outsized compared to the rest of the industry. So I think a PE ratio in line with the industry average of 30 is too low.
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 7, 2022 21:44:55 GMT -5
I love this thread. Solid exchange of thoughts. Boca I too agree it depends on the assumptions one uses.
From my perspective, while I use models, they are not the only thing I take into consideration when investing. But modeling does allow me to understand how hopeful investors have to become for stocks to hit specific price points. I think of it like intrinsic vs extrinsic value in options. Modeling represents the potential intrinsic value of an investment based on a set of assumptions and norms. Extrinsic value is made up of all the intangibles, FOMO, hype, etc. Things you cannot prove, but know will exist in any investment. TSLA is a perfect example of not being able to model an outcome or account for exactly how much extrinsic value investors are willing to assign to a stock.
When I see people throw out numbers like, this stock is going to XX or YY (and yes I realize some people are being sarcastic and others are being humerous), other than sticking their finger in the air to measure wind direction I wonder how they got there and how connected or detached from reality they are. Or is there something my analysis of the situation missed?
Trust me, nobody wants to see MNKD rocket (hehehe, TESLA puns) to $10, then 20, then to the moon, more than me. I hope AKEMP is right in his thought that "we will all know soon enough." Unfortunately, MNKD has a history of setting expectations, missing them and then kicking them down the road (SANOF - different management I know, DTC advertising, more sales staff, redesigned website, Indy car sponsorship, the right sales staff, refocusing on the right markets, etc.). Each time leaving investors trying to justify hanging on until the "next" milestone. I am looking forward to the next 30 to 60 days in my life as an MNKD investor (oh if I had one share of TSLA for ever time I have thought that) and experiencing a win.
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Post by Clement on Feb 7, 2022 22:34:47 GMT -5
UTHR is not Sanofi.
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Post by bones1026 on Feb 7, 2022 22:59:47 GMT -5
I love this thread. Solid exchange of thoughts. Boca I too agree it depends on the assumptions one uses. From my perspective, while I use models, they are not the only thing I take into consideration when investing. But modeling does allow me to understand how hopeful investors have to become for stocks to hit specific price points. I think of it like intrinsic vs extrinsic value in options. Modeling represents the potential intrinsic value of an investment based on a set of assumptions and norms. Extrinsic value is made up of all the intangibles, FOMO, hype, etc. Things you cannot prove, but know will exist in any investment. TSLA is a perfect example of not being able to model an outcome or account for exactly how much extrinsic value investors are willing to assign to a stock. When I see people throw out numbers like, this stock is going to XX or YY (and yes I realize some people are being sarcastic and others are being humerous), other than sticking their finger in the air to measure wind direction I wonder how they got there and how connected or detached from reality they are. Or is there something my analysis of the situation missed? Trust me, nobody wants to see MNKD rocket (hehehe, TESLA puns) to $10, then 20, then to the moon, more than me. I hope AKEMP is right in his thought that "we will all know soon enough." Unfortunately, MNKD has a history of setting expectations, missing them and then kicking them down the road (SANOF - different management I know, DTC advertising, more sales staff, redesigned website, Indy car sponsorship, the right sales staff, refocusing on the right markets, etc.). Each time leaving investors trying to justify hanging on until the "next" milestone. I am looking forward to the next 30 to 60 days in my life as an MNKD investor (oh if I had one share of TSLA for ever time I have thought that) and experiencing a win. Trying to speculate on how quickly sp can rise, I must remind everyone, the stock market of 2022, isn’t the one like when we grew up, where stock like AMC and GME absolutely skyrocketed, bc ppl have opportunities with social media, that they have today. I’m not saying we’re shooting to those levels, I’m just saying that hype today is easier to generate..and we’ve seen what social media hype is capable of. GameStop sells old video games. We have the best mealtime insulin on the planet. Good luck to all true longs. It been a long ride |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 8, 2022 1:24:14 GMT -5
I plan on holding MNKD until I reach retirement age. What happens now doesn’t matter. In 33 years we’ll be a >$100 stock. Hmmm ... and this is after how many splits? I guess my teachings did not sink in  But, that's mytakeonit |
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limo
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Post by limo on Feb 8, 2022 3:42:11 GMT -5
castlerockchris , appreciate the well-reasoned analysis. PE is a function of earnings growth as much as industry comps. If Tyvaso DPI is approved and UTHR sells it well, our earnings growth rate would be outsized compared to the rest of the industry. So I think a PE ratio in line with the industry average of 30 is too low. what makes you think that when UTHR's PE is 20? |
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Post by letitride on Feb 8, 2022 5:44:21 GMT -5
Whatever happened to irrational exuberance with a complete disconnect from any preconceived notions of PE, market cap, or any kind of valuation consideration. Let it Fly!
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 8, 2022 6:56:19 GMT -5
Definition of my "Irrational Exuberance" on display:
I just want this to hit my target of $30, sell my shares and roll it all into PLTR and hit that BUY button before PLTR gets to $100. I've said it before, this isn't for me....it's my goal to leave a legacy portfolio flush with money for the 39 year old daughter, 30 year old Jr and 25 year old baby boy. I'm already good.
PS. Not my only shots on goal. My "Irrational Exuberance" is spread far and wide in the "Biotechnology Desert of Dreams" where bankruptcy, dilution, toxic financing and DOJ investigations are as abundant as prickly cactus, vipers and dry tumbleweed.
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Post by veritasfiliatemporis on Feb 8, 2022 7:37:50 GMT -5
I knew it.... a silly question will end up to a "conservative answer"... The problem , we have nothing to talk...SP will definitely stick with the income, let leave momentum to "be a nice short boys"
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 8, 2022 7:42:36 GMT -5
I just read the SA article linked by Brentie. At the bottom of the article was a blurb from SA noting that MNKD has 53,000 followers. Momentum seems like a real possibility. The market loves darlings. Nothing to say MNKD can’t be one.
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 8, 2022 11:36:30 GMT -5
I agree and I was not suggesting they are. I was simply pointing out how many times we have been led to believe we were on the cusp of the promised land, only to be left disappointed. |
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 8, 2022 11:47:12 GMT -5
castlerockchris , appreciate the well-reasoned analysis. PE is a function of earnings growth as much as industry comps. If Tyvaso DPI is approved and UTHR sells it well, our earnings growth rate would be outsized compared to the rest of the industry. So I think a PE ratio in line with the industry average of 30 is too low. I would love to see a 4 or five handle on MNKD's PE when we get to CF positive. My thought on a discounted PE compared to the industry is solely based on the fact that we are simply the assembler of the product, not the developer. The market has a history of discounting the PE of assemblers vs developers. Two comparisons come to mind quickly. Taiwan Semi (TSM) with a PE of 29.8 is the fabricator of chips, while NVDA, the developer has a PE of 76. The second would be FoxCon the assembler of the iPhone with a PE of 18 vs. AAPL the developer with a PE of 28.5. One would think their CAGR would be symbiotic, and therefore so would their PE's, but they aren't. I get that it isn't "just that simple," and I may be comparing apples to oranges, but there is a case to be made for the PE of assemblers being discounted vs the developer's. Your point that MNKD's annual growth rate for revenue and cash flow should exceed the industry's average is valid. The market will be looking to see if that is sustainable/replicable over the long haul and can that growth rate be consistent before applying an outsized multiple. Tyvaso DPI is UTHR's attempt to defend their turf from other competitors, which suggests they will put an all out effort into migrating their customers quickly, which is good for MNKD. For Tyvaso DPI to significantly impact the price of both UTHR and MNKD's stock (2 or 3X), the application of Tyvaso needs to be expanded to additional treatment areas, something that will take years to accomplish without emergency or special authorization. Because Tyvaso DPI in the near term is a defensive play for UTHR and an expansive play for MNKD, an argument can be made that the impact to stock price (as a percentage gain) favors a bigger move for MNKD. I continue to believe we see 4.75 to 5.15 with approval. Any move into the 6's will see a pull back into the low 5's within 30 days. We will see 6 to 7 as we get a couple of quarters of solid Tyvaso revenue in the books (Q1 2023 quarterly filing in April). When a favorable preliminary Pediatric Phase III readout comes, hopefully in the first half of 2023, the price goes to $10 - 12. But that Is My Take on It, ahhh, I mean thoughts on it.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 8, 2022 11:54:34 GMT -5
I agree and I was not suggesting they are. I was simply pointing out how many times we have been led to believe we were on the cusp of the promised land, only to be left disappointed. I am a skeptic. My view is we were led to the promised land twice. The first time was Sanofi. It still seems like a miracle we’re still here after that disaster from Hell. The 2nd time was the PDUFA CRL last October. I don’t view the pending approval later this month as the promised land, but simply a relief (if approved). Now that’s me. I don’t know how the market will react. My vote was one up from the least improvement in PPS. But, if approved, TreT will be a vital source of revenue of material importance to Mannkind. MC has proven his ability to lead on a wing and a prayer and a shoestring budget. If approved, he will have to prove his ability to pivot and take Mannkind to the next level where we see a zero appear after the first integer in the PPS, and upward from there. For all I know, the market may think that move is all but assured if TreT is approved. I hope so, but I am a skeptic.  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 8, 2022 12:40:51 GMT -5
It’s good to be skeptical.
Mike sold when we partnered with Sanofi…we were all way too naïve.
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Post by peppy on Feb 8, 2022 12:52:31 GMT -5
It’s good to be skeptical. Mike sold when we partnered with Sanofi… we were all way too naïve. are you still in pkkff? The way I see it, now is not the moment to be skeptical in MNKD. |
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