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Post by dh4mizzou on Feb 7, 2022 15:13:40 GMT -5
The stock may only go up 25-30% on approval ( say $ 4.50 - $ 5.00 per share) but where will it go when MNKS starts posting consistent Positive Earnings? What's the average PPS/Earnings ratio? 15x? 20x? If Tyvaso can put MNKD solidly in the $ 1-2 per year (presuming Afrezza just plods along) in earnings would not the share price move to $ 15-30?
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Post by awesomo on Feb 7, 2022 15:16:16 GMT -5
If something has a strong chance of occurring, in this case 75% that Tyvaso DPI will be approved (from what I have read, this is definitely my opinion), then the stock should already have that reflected in the price. Therefore, MNKD will probably move in the 20-30% range upon approval, maybe less. If it does not get approved, which has a 25% chance of happening then it will move strongly to the downside, somewhere probably in the 50-60% range. This is all short term. Long term, as the uptake of Tyvaso DPI plays out, MNKD stock will move accordingly. That is where there is a lot of unknowns are. As revenue flows in from sales, sales are showing profits, reviews of users are positive, then you will see a gradual rise to in share price to what it is worth to Mannkind's bottom line. Point is, a large move for something that has a high chance of occurring doesn't make sense. Investors take into account risk and invest accordingly. Sale/purchase orderers are based on those odds and are therefore, "baked in" MNKD was trading at $5.37 prior to UTHR receiving the CRL. Upon receipt, it quickly dropped to $4.15. It is currently trading around $3.75. It does not appear that approval is "baked in". It also recovered to over $5 in November 2021. It has dropped back down mostly because of market weakness and lack of any other catalyst. Don't expect it to reach the highs prior to the CRL. |
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Post by celo on Feb 7, 2022 15:17:59 GMT -5
I said a 20 to 30% move in the share price upon approval. That would be to between 4.50 to 5.
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 7, 2022 15:30:19 GMT -5
I said a 20 to 30% move in the share price upon approval. That would be to between 4.50 to 5. Seems that would only return the pps to pre-FDA decision without taking into account an approval...unless I'm missing something which is certainly possible. |
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Post by awesomo on Feb 7, 2022 15:38:25 GMT -5
I said a 20 to 30% move in the share price upon approval. That would be to between 4.50 to 5. Seems that would only return the pps to pre-FDA decision without taking into account an approval...unless I'm missing something which is certainly possible. 1. The market pre-FDA decision was inflated 2. UTHR/MannKind lost 4+ months in ramping up Tyvaso 3. Increased muddying of Liquidia issue |
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Post by mango on Feb 7, 2022 17:03:56 GMT -5
I plan on holding MNKD until I reach retirement age.
What happens now doesn’t matter. In 33 years we’ll be a >$100 stock.
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Post by celo on Feb 7, 2022 17:09:47 GMT -5
Seems that would only return the pps to pre-FDA decision without taking into account an approval...unless I'm missing something which is certainly possible. 1. The market pre-FDA decision was inflated 2. UTHR/MannKind lost 4+ months in ramping up Tyvaso 3. Increased muddying of Liquidia issue There is nothing to say that in the weeks and months that follow that there will be plenty of upward momentum possibilities. The amount of drivers upward are endless along with the possible downward pressures if Tyvaso DPI is not approved. Quarterly reports could all be upward drivers if there are succinct discussions of forward routes to lower quarterly losses/and or profitability. |
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 7, 2022 17:32:25 GMT -5
The stock may only go up 25-30% on approval ( say $ 4.50 - $ 5.00 per share) but where will it go when MNKS starts posting consistent Positive Earnings? What's the average PPS/Earnings ratio? 15x? 20x? If Tyvaso can put MNKD solidly in the $ 1-2 per year (presuming Afrezza just plods along) in earnings would not the share price move to $ 15-30? Technically, yes assuming you are running a pure earnings multiple model. The reality is Tyvaso sales alone will be hard pressed to get MNKD into an area where they can earn $1, let alone $2 per share. MNKD, according to Fidelity, has 251mm shares outstanding (Plus there are outstanding warrants as a result of financing packages, I just don't remember how many off the top of my head). For simplicity sake let's say outstanding shares are 251mm and everything else on MNKD's income statement remains steady as she goes with an annualized deficit of 30 - 50mm before Tyvaso royalties and manufacturing income. So to get to $1 in earnings per share, MNKD will need to be pulling in net cash flow of more than $251mm. Tyvaso sales using dry powder inhalation will need to be north of $2.75 billion for MNKD to generate that type of net cash flow. UTHR's total revenue for 2021 will end up being somewhere between 1.65 - 1.8 billion. I will be very happy to be wrong, but I don't see Tyvaso dry powder sales hitting $2.75 billion in the the next couple of years. My feeling is Tyvaso gets MNKD to slightly above break even in 2024. Come on Pediatric Trial! |
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Post by nylefty on Feb 7, 2022 18:27:03 GMT -5
I plan on holding MNKD until I reach retirement age. What happens now doesn’t matter. In 33 years we’ll be a >$100 stock. Sounds good. In 33 years I'll only be 121. |
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Post by awesomo on Feb 7, 2022 18:55:54 GMT -5
I plan on holding MNKD until I reach retirement age. What happens now doesn’t matter. In 33 years we’ll be a >$100 stock. I'd love to see your 33 year DCF valuation that puts it at $100 per share, lol. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 7, 2022 19:03:12 GMT -5
The stock may only go up 25-30% on approval ( say $ 4.50 - $ 5.00 per share) but where will it go when MNKS starts posting consistent Positive Earnings? What's the average PPS/Earnings ratio? 15x? 20x? If Tyvaso can put MNKD solidly in the $ 1-2 per year (presuming Afrezza just plods along) in earnings would not the share price move to $ 15-30? Technically, yes assuming you are running a pure earnings multiple model. The reality is Tyvaso sales alone will be hard pressed to get MNKD into an area where they can earn $1, let alone $2 per share. MNKD, according to Fidelity, has 251mm shares outstanding (Plus there are outstanding warrants as a result of financing packages, I just don't remember how many off the top of my head). For simplicity sake let's say outstanding shares are 251mm and everything else on MNKD's income statement remains steady as she goes with an annualized deficit of 30 - 50mm before Tyvaso royalties and manufacturing income. So to get to $1 in earnings per share, MNKD will need to be pulling in net cash flow of more than $251mm. Tyvaso sales using dry powder inhalation will need to be north of $2.75 billion for MNKD to generate that type of net cash flow. UTHR's total revenue for 2021 will end up being somewhere between 1.65 - 1.8 billion. I will be very happy to be wrong, but I don't see Tyvaso dry powder sales hitting $2.75 billion in the the next couple of years. My feeling is Tyvaso gets MNKD to slightly above break even in 2024. Come on Pediatric Trial! Average P/E is mid 20s. Last I checked BP often in range of 40 to 70 with 70 being very rare. So my thoughts always go to between 20 and 40 as reasonable. EPS of $250M would mean probably $350 to $400M+ in revenue. Unless some other catalysts materialize, I don’t expect those numbers in 2023 or 2024. Not impossible, but not sure how likely. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2022 19:18:04 GMT -5
I plan on holding MNKD until I reach retirement age. What happens now doesn’t matter. In 33 years we’ll be a >$100 stock. Sounds good. In 33 years I'll only be 121. I'll be a young whipper snapper at 98! |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 7, 2022 19:31:06 GMT -5
Yeah when I first bought the stock in 07 at $19 …..I thought what happens now doesn’t matter🤣
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 7, 2022 19:42:52 GMT -5
There was a lot of good analysis presented on the potential for the price rise at the time of the FDA and beyond.
A 25 -30% rise in sp seems reasonable, but what price will MNKD be at when that PR comes out?
Mnkd closed at $3.77 today. What price will it be at just prior to the announcement? Could it be at $5.25? If so, then $6.56 - $6.82 is possible.
It all depends on the assumptions used.
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 7, 2022 20:24:12 GMT -5
Spot on boca. The assumptions are exactly what disrupts the math of those who rely too heavily on analytics, charting, industry trends, etc. BTW, this comment is not directed at anyone whatsoever. It's just something seen often in posts. The necessary assumptions are also what makes investing in emerging biotechs the most risky and rewarding. One thing I like about this poll is that everyone will know soon enough the strength of their assumptions regardless if they were based on analytics, instincts or some combination. For those of us who are wrong, we'll have to just mea culpa  GLTA |
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GLTA