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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 8, 2022 19:25:16 GMT -5
Why are there investors in LQDA now considering their runway to revenue is quite long at best? We're all too familiar with that scenario.
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 9, 2022 8:48:13 GMT -5
Why are there investors in LQDA now considering their runway to revenue is quite long at best? We're all too familiar with that scenario. Good point and I think you answered your own question there. |
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 9, 2022 9:37:58 GMT -5
Why are there investors in LQDA now considering their runway to revenue is quite long at best? We're all too familiar with that scenario. Good point and I think you answered your own question there. It’s equivalent to buying mannkind at $1.25 18 months ago. |
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 9, 2022 9:42:02 GMT -5
Good point and I think you answered your own question there. It’s equivalent to buying mannkind at $1.25 18 months ago. Either that, or it might be like buying MNKD at $50 a few years earlier, when we were looking at our own runway to revenue. I guess time will tell which is the better analogy for LQDA… |
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 9, 2022 10:05:09 GMT -5
The point is we all paid a steep price for the long lesson and are now much smarter than current LQDA investors  |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 9, 2022 10:50:25 GMT -5
Who is going to sell LQDA's product? When I went to their website it seems Sandoz is selling their Treprostinil. Will that be the same with their DPI? If so have they said what the royalty split will be? trepinjection.com/They are building out their own sales force I believe. I am sure I read that, but I am not sufficiently motivated to go and dig it out again. I feel it was in one of the PRs after they lost the court case. They were saying that they would use the time to develop the commercial side. Apparently the market for Tyvaso is far more focused than for Afrezza - it's specialized and the prescribing path is different which is why the Symphony numbers are meaningless. The net of that is that you can manage with a relatively small sales team. Initially at least there is no partner and hence no royalty split. |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 9, 2022 11:03:41 GMT -5
Why are there investors in LQDA now considering their runway to revenue is quite long at best? We're all too familiar with that scenario. The runway is pretty clear, it's bounded by the UTHR appeals and those run out in 2024 (+/- a few months). It means investors can see a start of revenue, and UTHR has validated the DPI approach. My suspicion is that the investors see this as a humalog/novolog situation with two products splitting the market. My suspicion is also that UTHR will use the same playbook against LQDA that was used against Afrezza so I am not quite so optimistic. Right now though LQDA are doing the right things; they are running a continuation trial to keep delivering data and maintaining visibility of their product in the medical world, presenting at conferences, and putting together the structures they are going to need. If I was them I would be telling everyone that would listen that UTHR is so scared of how good Liquidia that they are throwing money at lawyers to slow the launch - meanwhile why don't you look at out trial data... In reality UTHR are just following the BP playbook so I am not sure the doctors will really listen to that message (it's what BP does). |
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Post by hopingandwilling on Dec 9, 2022 11:23:10 GMT -5
Thanks for the response to my question about Liquida.
One thing I have noticed about MannKind, it appears to be a day trader target for flipping the stock. At the moment, LQDA has traded 82,000 shares and is down 0.01cent. MannKind has traded 718,000 and is down 0.04 cents.
IMO, these day traders and market makers are making a pile of money while the long-term MannKind stockholders are negatively affected by their actions. It needs to stop!
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Post by alethea on Dec 9, 2022 12:04:15 GMT -5
LQDA is going to get the crap kicked out of it by Tyvaso DPI. DPI will be so firmly entrenched by the time LQDA even begins to have sales they will likely end up being only an "also ran".
I'm unclear why Aged says DPI's Symphony numbers are "meaningless". Check out Harry's graphic depiction of those results. (posted today under Afrezza Script Counts and other Metrics thread). DPI sales go from zero at the end of June to today's Symphony numbers of 225 scrips and $5.7 million. That is a very pretty and very impressive chart. Classic "hockey stick", maybe better. Perhaps much better. With MNKD getting its cut in royalties, a double digit percentage "piece of the action".
I am feeling very confident about MNKD these days. It is going to show up in a significantly higher stock price before too long.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 9, 2022 12:21:43 GMT -5
Agree many day traders have done very well over the long haul. That said, history shows they can also be crushed with little notice unless they're sophisticated enough at hedging which is a discussion for another time. I've known quite a few individuals over the years who quit their regular jobs to become day traders during a good economy only to return to their day jobs when the market or their investment turned sour and crushed their plans. Healthy returns should finally be on the horizon for long investors. It's looking better and better.
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Post by sayhey24 on Dec 9, 2022 13:47:55 GMT -5
Who is going to sell LQDA's product? When I went to their website it seems Sandoz is selling their Treprostinil. Will that be the same with their DPI? If so have they said what the royalty split will be? trepinjection.com/They are building out their own sales force I believe. I am sure I read that, but I am not sufficiently motivated to go and dig it out again. I feel it was in one of the PRs after they lost the court case. They were saying that they would use the time to develop the commercial side. Apparently the market for Tyvaso is far more focused than for Afrezza - it's specialized and the prescribing path is different which is why the Symphony numbers are meaningless. The net of that is that you can manage with a relatively small sales team. Initially at least there is no partner and hence no royalty split. Is what you are saying is they will have a brand new sales team with a brand new product with no great advantage over Tyvaso DPI calling on the same doctors who UTHR has an ongoing relationship with and who are already prescribing Tyvaso DPI with great success? Is that a correct understanding? If so this sounds like an up hill battle for them. At least Technosphere was a proven delivery system with no lung issues and their sales reps knew the doctors. |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 9, 2022 14:16:29 GMT -5
Is what you are saying is they will have a brand new sales team with a brand new product with no great advantage over Tyvaso DPI calling on the same doctors who UTHR has an ongoing relationship with and who are already prescribing Tyvaso DPI with great success? Is that a correct understanding? If so this sounds like an up hill battle for them. At least Technosphere was a proven delivery system with no lung issues and their sales reps knew the doctors. In answer to your question you are partially correct. More to the UTHR sees them as a viable threat so they probably are that! LQDA already have a salesforce from the RareGen acquisition, more to the point one that is focused on PAH selling generic version of UTHR’s Remodulin to the same people they will be selling their DPI, so they have the relationships with the doctor already. My bet is that the data will show the two DPI drugs have identical performance since they are both deep lung DPI delivery and the active ingredient is the same. So while UTHR will be first to market (this is the bit you got right) the market is large. LQDA is in the position of letting UTHR educate the market and then taking a chunk for themselves. They don't need a huge piece because unlike UTHR and MNKD they are not splitting the profit. ... And that is why the stock price for LQDA is slightly ahead of MNKD YTD. The investors see a profitable company two years out, and frankly UTHR has validated the investment by going after LQDA - if they saw LQDA as irrelevant they would have just ignored them. |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 9, 2022 14:22:15 GMT -5
LQDA is going to get the crap kicked out of it by Tyvaso DPI. DPI will be so firmly entrenched by the time LQDA even begins to have sales they will likely end up being only an "also ran". I'm unclear why Aged says DPI's Symphony numbers are "meaningless". Check out Harry's graphic depiction of those results. (posted today under Afrezza Script Counts and other Metrics thread). DPI sales go from zero at the end of June to today's Symphony numbers of 225 scrips and $5.7 million. That is a very pretty and very impressive chart. Classic "hockey stick", maybe better. Perhaps much better. With MNKD getting its cut in royalties, a double digit percentage "piece of the action". I am feeling very confident about MNKD these days. It is going to show up in a significantly higher stock price before too long. I suspect that even as an also ran LQDA would be happy. The numbers seem to say this is going to be a multi-billion dollar market so maybe 20% of that sounds pretty good to LQDA investors. Are the Symphony numbers meaningless? I was under the impression that Tyvaso DPI was primarily supplied by specialist pharmacies and those don't report via Symphony. As such I think that the Symphony numbers will seriously understate sales - hence meaningless. If it is all is all flowing through then I am wrong and the numbers reflect reality. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 9, 2022 14:36:40 GMT -5
LQDA is going to get the crap kicked out of it by Tyvaso DPI. DPI will be so firmly entrenched by the time LQDA even begins to have sales they will likely end up being only an "also ran". I'm unclear why Aged says DPI's Symphony numbers are "meaningless". Check out Harry's graphic depiction of those results. (posted today under Afrezza Script Counts and other Metrics thread). DPI sales go from zero at the end of June to today's Symphony numbers of 225 scrips and $5.7 million. That is a very pretty and very impressive chart. Classic "hockey stick", maybe better. Perhaps much better. With MNKD getting its cut in royalties, a double digit percentage "piece of the action". I am feeling very confident about MNKD these days. It is going to show up in a significantly higher stock price before too long. I suspect that even as an also ran LQDA would be happy. The numbers seem to say this is going to be a multi-billion dollar market so maybe 20% of that sounds pretty good to LQDA investors. Are the Symphony numbers meaningless? I was under the impression that Tyvaso DPI was primarily supplied by specialist pharmacies and those don't report via Symphony. As such I think that the Symphony numbers will seriously understate sales - hence meaningless. If it is all is all flowing through then I am wrong and the numbers reflect reality. aged, you should know I'm a fan (nowadays anyway), but I respectfully assert the Symphony numbers on Tyvaso DPI are meaningful. They're the facts Symphony is able to report, and they show an improving sales trend, and the biggest question is how well the numbers are able to represent the real sales number. I expect over time we'll find a usable multiplying factor to rely on the Symphony numbers as a useful but imprecise representation and hence "reflect reality". The rest of your recent posts I agree with. UTHR took several actions to mitigate potential competition to their inhalable treprostinil (Tyvaso). They acquired one small potential competitor, entered into a development and manufacturing agreement with another (MNKD), and sued a 3rd (LQDA) that they didn't want to pay to acquire or partner with. And I agree that LQDA is OK with a (small?) piece of a large market, even if it is 2+ years away. And everybody seems to agree UTHR is hitting a home run in the meantime and that is good news for UTHR and MNKD. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 9, 2022 15:13:37 GMT -5
Curious if someone knows what percentage of LQDA is owned by institutional investors?
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