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Post by hopingandwilling on Mar 22, 2023 12:14:46 GMT -5
"I think there is something that doesn't match up with your posts."
I agree with your response-- it's called reality!
When we approached the last Q results there was must conjecture and projecting of the results being so great it would result in the stock moving much higher. Please note that when United announced their Q results their stock has now created a loss of more than $2billion in valuation. The stock today is down more than $6.00. And why is this you might ask. PAH is a critical needs drugs, simply meaning the patient must have on hand Tyvaso if that is the drug they are using. United combines their data for this drug under Tyvaso and they don't break out Tyvaso DPI. Sequentially, from the 3rdQ to the 4thQ--Tyvaso revenue dropped by $16.00 million dollars. Ignore this data if you wish---United stock has lost 25% of its valuation this year and it's obviously dragging down MNKD.
Just my opinion--feel free to ignore my opinion!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 22, 2023 12:24:29 GMT -5
I agree your posts don't match up with reality.
Although, you may be right Tyvaso revenue may have dropped. But Tyvaso is not important to MNKD. What is important to MNKD is Tyvaso DPI.
Tyvaso DPI revenue increased substantially from 3Q to 4Q22 as measured by Symphony script information shared here on the board every week.
Also, we know that the Tyvaso DPI sales are substantially greater than what is visible to and reported by Symphony.
Try taking a look at pharma sector ETFs. They're all down in the last month. It ain't just UTHR.
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Post by longliner on Mar 22, 2023 12:40:09 GMT -5
The closer we get to profitability, (each quarter will bring us closer) the shriller the negative posts will become. They'll take advantage of all market variables to squeal. (Gee, I wonder what it could be today?)  As a buy and hold long investor, not trading, shorting or options, I welcome the shrilling pitch on all of the boards. (It is, after all, the same folks on all of the boards.) |
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Post by neil36 on Mar 24, 2023 10:28:50 GMT -5
Is anyone else seeing 2023 royalties coming in north of $50 million?
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Post by Clement on Mar 24, 2023 13:03:33 GMT -5
Is anyone else seeing 2023 royalties coming in north of $50 million? Q4 2022 royalties were $9M. At this run rate, royalties for FY2023 will be 4 x $9 = $36M with no growth. However, we expect growth for T-DPI so let's add some growth. Suppose each quarter in 2023 adds $3M to the preceding quarter. That gives 3 + 6 + 9 + 12 = $30M growth in 2023. For the year with growth we get royalties of $36M + $30M = $66M. So the answer is yes. |
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Post by neil36 on Mar 24, 2023 14:21:30 GMT -5
So put a conservative twenty multiple on $50+ million in pure profit and you have a billion dollar market cap and you get the rest of the company for free.
Put a more appropriate growth multiple of thirty on your $66 million in pure profit and you have a $2 billion market cap, and that assumes Vgo and Afrezza do nothing but break even.
This won't show up on stock screeners for a while, but it will. In spite of the dishearting fall from the $5.70 level, we will be back there and beyond. Just a matter of time.
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Post by Clement on Apr 27, 2023 8:10:38 GMT -5
Hi Guys, Here below my estimate for what could be "Q1 2023" earning report: Estimate MNKD Net Revenues Q1 2023: 41 M$ (+14% vs Q4 2022)..... ( +244% vs Q1 2022) due to.... - Afrezza Net Rev 13 M$ - V-Go 5,5M$ - Royalties (Tyvaso DPI) 12.5 M$ - Collaborations and services 10 M$ [This post has been abbreviated.] Now, one month later, I want to revisit this post by parrerob. I think his estimate is still good at $41M for total net revenue for Q1 2023. Parrerob points out that, if correct, that's more than 240% increase over Q1 2022. This increase is so staggering I had to look up total revs for Q1 2022 and indeed he is correct. "Total revenues were $12.0 million for the first quarter of 2022" investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-corporation-reports-2022-first-quarter-financial |
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Post by ktim on Apr 27, 2023 12:21:35 GMT -5
Just sold some more puts in anticipation of positive earnings report:
Jan 24 $3.5 strike for $0.48 premium. So effective price of $3.02 if it goes down and I get assigned. Sold a pretty small amount, but will definitely add until earnings if I can get even more premium. I've now got a bunch of $5 and $4 Jan 24 strike short puts as well that were sold earlier this year, and of course large holding of shares.
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Post by Clement on Apr 28, 2023 8:51:28 GMT -5
I'm guessing that on May 1 there will be a MNKD PR which announces the Q1 earnings call to be held on May 8.
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Post by parrerob on Apr 30, 2023 11:59:18 GMT -5
Hi Guys, Here below my estimate for what could be "Q1 2023" earning report: Estimate MNKD Net Revenues Q1 2023: 41 M$ (+14% vs Q4 2022)..... (+244% vs Q1 2022) due to.... - Afrezza Net Rev 13 M$ - V-Go 5,5M$ - Royalties (Tyvaso DPI) 12.5 M$ - Collaborations and services 10 M$ Just to remind that Net Rev Q4 2022 were +10% against Net Rev Q3 2022 (32,8 M$). During Q4 2022 We have lost 18 M$ (0,07 $ per share) so that I can estimate, considering the run rate costs (loss from operations and other expenses) comparable to the previous quarter, We will close the quarter at around (0,05 $) per Share or a loss of around 13 Million$ Assumptions – (All based on % from Symphony data) V-GO Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 8,481 M$ and considering 850K$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +1% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from V-Go is the same of Q4 ’23. Afrezza Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 18,82 M$ and considering 1,8M$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +10% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from Afrezza is 14,5 M$ Tyvaso DPI Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 63,38 M$ and considering 7M$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +37% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from Tyvaso is 12,5 M$ Collaborations and Services as stated by the last earning call it will be stable (I consider 10M$) Kevin on ST is estimating 16/17 M$ from Afrezza.... that's impossible, IMO. I have even some doubts We will reach my previous estimate of 13M$ (Afrezza only) for the quarter.... I reiterate my estimate of 41M$ total rev (with a doubt to land more on 40 then 42). Obviously I hope Kevin is right.... with his numbers we will be sure cash positive within the year..... but I cannot understand where his numbers are coming from... |
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 30, 2023 15:23:05 GMT -5
It is often difficult to understand where Kev gets his info. That said, his passion for MNKD cannot be questioned. |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Apr 30, 2023 18:31:03 GMT -5
parrerob, thanks for sharing your thoughts on this quarter's earnings! Another quarter, another double-digit growth in revenue for sure. I've not stayed close to MannKind these past few months due to the combination of little worry about my investment plus busy times at work. Your numbers seem very realistic to me! ronw77077, would love your take if you see anything differently.
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Post by ronw77077 on May 1, 2023 12:24:19 GMT -5
I agree for the most part with parrebob's $41 M estimate.
In particular his estimates for Afrezza, V-GO and Collaborations & Services seem quite likely.
His estimate of $12.5 M in royalties is the toughest to guess. Here's how I think about it.
MNKD Royalties vs. UT Cost of Tyvaso Sales
3 Months Ended
UTHR 3/31/23 12/31/22 9/30/22 6/30/22
Tyvaso Net Product Sales 300 242.3 257.7 201
Cost of Product Sales (COS) 30 23.8 17 6.5
% COS 10% 10% 7% 3%
MNKD
MNKD Royalty (per MNKD) 11.4 9.1 6.2 0.3
% MNKD Royalty of UT COS 38% 38% 36% 5%
UT's incomprehensible explanation of why Q4 sales declined from Q3 makes predicting Q1 difficult.
However, based on all of UT's upbeat predictions for 2023-2024 it seems reasonable to hypothesize revenues will exceed $300 M.
If so, $12.5 in royalties is a reasonable guess (compared to my $11.4 M and its inherent guesses).
We'll have good guidance based on UT's numbers on Wednesday.
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Post by caesar on May 2, 2023 14:06:02 GMT -5
Via REFINITIV - MannKind Corp MNKD to post a loss of 5 cents per share anticipated for first quarter - Reuters News Extra
From May 1 - All figures in US dollars.
MannKind Corp is expected to show an increase in its first quarter earnings to -5 cents per share according to the mean
Refinitiv estimate from five analysts. Wall Street expects results to range from a loss of -6 cents to a loss of -4 cents per share.
RECOMMENDATIONS
* The consensus recommendation for the company is "Buy". This includes two "Strong Buy", two "Buy", one "Hold".
* The average consensus recommendation for the biotechnology & medical research peer group is also "Buy".
FORECAST CHANGES
* Five analysts are currently providing Refinitiv with estimates.
* In the last week there have been no earnings estimate revisions by analysts covering the company. There were no changes
to the number of estimates.
* In the last four weeks the earnings per share estimate is unchanged from -5 cents. Estimates ranged from a high of -4 cents
to a low of -6 cents. There has been no changes to the number of estimates.
* The StarMine predicted earnings surprise is too low to be considered statistically significant. Predicted revenue surprise is
too low to be significant.
* The average price target from the five analysts providing estimates is $6.4.
YEAR OVER YEAR
* The company is expected to report a rise in revenue to $37.4 million from $11.99 million in the same quarter last year.
* The current quarter consensus estimate of -5 cents per share implies a gain of 49.80 percent from the same quarter last year
when the company reported -10 cents per share.
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Post by mytakeonit on May 2, 2023 14:17:51 GMT -5
Awww crap ... that means that I won't be able to show any losses. Hawaii just announced that they will fly the homeless back to the states. So now I won't be able to fly FREE to Las Vegas !!! sniff ...
But, that's mytakeonit
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