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Post by jkendra on May 3, 2023 6:14:07 GMT -5
From UTHR's 1st Quarter 2023 10Q - Tyvaso cost of sales 26.9M
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Post by Clement on May 3, 2023 6:26:09 GMT -5
UTHR Q1 2023
Total Tyvaso net rev $238M
If half is T-DPI, then royalties for MNKD will be about $12M.
That's very close to parrerob's estimate.
finance.yahoo.com/news/united-therapeutics-corporation-reports-first-100000141.html
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Post by neil36 on May 3, 2023 6:45:52 GMT -5
Tyvaso Q4-22 revenue was $242.3 million
Tyvaso Q1-23 revenue was $238.4 million (flat to slightly down quarter-over-quarter)
When we had Symphony visibility, the Tyvaso DPI revenue was running 45-50% quarter-over-quarter.
So while total Tyvaso revenues didn't show any growth, the conversion rate to DPI must be very substantial.
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Post by derekewhitlock on May 3, 2023 7:27:46 GMT -5
I hope this is not a dumb question but why does a flat line in Tyvaso revenue growth from Q42022 ro Q12023 indicate to you an increasing DPI conversion? Thank you,
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Post by anderson on May 3, 2023 7:43:52 GMT -5
Cost of sale in 3rd quarter was 17m and mnkd got 6.2m royalty, if you calculate the 4th quarter is was (53.5-17-6.5-6.2)=23.8m and mnkd got (15.6-6.2)=9.4m royalty. So 1st quarter is 26.9m cost of sale, ratios are about the same so could be conservatively(9.4/23.8)*26.9=10.6m royalty, hope I am wrong and it is more.
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Post by anderson on May 3, 2023 9:15:26 GMT -5
Revenues impacted by High PAP utilization with Tyvaso DPI. What does that mean.......
Patient Assistance Program (PAP)
United Therapeutics offers a free medication program for uninsured and underinsured patients who meet eligibility requirements.
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Post by beardawg on May 3, 2023 9:49:50 GMT -5
I hope this is not a dumb question but why does a flat line in Tyvaso revenue growth from Q42022 ro Q12023 indicate to you an increasing DPI conversion? Thank you, I believe Tyvaso DPI is cheaper to make, so overall revenue may be down, but profit would be up. Kinda like if Ferrari sold a car for $40,000 and Toyota, sold one for $35,000, Toyota would come out well ahead in profit, but have less revenue. This is all assuming DPI is cheaper to make. |
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Post by uvula on May 3, 2023 10:17:46 GMT -5
I hope this is not a dumb question but why does a flat line in Tyvaso revenue growth from Q42022 ro Q12023 indicate to you an increasing DPI conversion? Thank you, I believe Tyvaso DPI is cheaper to make, so overall revenue may be down, but profit would be up. Kinda like if Ferrari sold a car for $40,000 and Toyota, sold one for $35,000, Toyota would come out well ahead in profit, but have less revenue. This is all assuming DPI is cheaper to make. Tyvaso DPI is almost certainly more expensive for uthr because they have to pay a royalty to the little company that manufacturers it. Also, our whistle is cheaper than a nebulizer, but uthr probably doesn't pay for the nebulizer, the patient does. |
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Post by Clement on May 3, 2023 10:35:10 GMT -5
I believe Tyvaso DPI is cheaper to make, so overall revenue may be down, but profit would be up. Kinda like if Ferrari sold a car for $40,000 and Toyota, sold one for $35,000, Toyota would come out well ahead in profit, but have less revenue. This is all assuming DPI is cheaper to make. For Tyvaso (T-neb only, T-DPI was not yet approved), Q1 2022 had net revs of 172.0M with cost of sales of 6.2M. COS over rev as a percentage = 3.06% For Tyvaso (T-neb + T-DPI), Q1 2023 had net revs of 238.4M with cost of sales of 26.9M. COS over rev as a percentage = 11.3% Cost of sales (which includes royalty for T-DPI) is much higher for T-DPI. from page 18 of the 10-Q d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001082554/4dbae05e-2083-4b12-a11f-ada1c9fd3e08.pdf |
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Post by mango on May 3, 2023 11:33:19 GMT -5
I believe Tyvaso DPI is cheaper to make, so overall revenue may be down, but profit would be up. Kinda like if Ferrari sold a car for $40,000 and Toyota, sold one for $35,000, Toyota would come out well ahead in profit, but have less revenue. This is all assuming DPI is cheaper to make. Tyvaso DPI is almost certainly more expensive for uthr because they have to pay a royalty to the little company that manufacturers it. Also, our whistle is cheaper than a nebulizer, but uthr probably doesn't pay for the nebulizer, the patient does. Robin Offord of Mintaka Foundation speaking about MannKind and inhaled oxytocin at the Global Healthcare Innovation Academy on August 26, 2016 start @ 40:00. They won Third Place & People's Choice Award. Mr. Offord details the economics of the developmental cost of the MannKind inhaler, that he says is a, “marvel of engineering.” The inhaler is super cheap to make. Perhaps michaelcastagna can reignite this dormant partnership now that MannKind has become known as the company who developed the new revolutionary inhaled treprostinil DPI licensed to partner United Therapeutics. How great would that be if our friends over at Mintaka could finally get this project off the ground now that MannKind has doubled validated its technology platform? We wouldn’t make any money from such an endeavor but we would be helping those that can’t help themselves. |
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Post by cretin11 on May 3, 2023 11:47:21 GMT -5
It is indeed a marvel of engineering. Mr. Offord was correct about that, almost seven years (and one partnership) ago. The years are stacking up, it's past time we stacked up some deals too. That's the missing piece of the equation not priced into the stock. Naked shorts and other manipulation theories would've been rendered meaningless if we'd taken care of that piece. But better late than never, so when will we accomplish that goal and is a sense of urgency too much to ask for...
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Post by ktim on May 3, 2023 11:56:06 GMT -5
Revenues impacted by High PAP utilization with Tyvaso DPI. What does that mean....... Patient Assistance Program (PAP) United Therapeutics offers a free medication program for uninsured and underinsured patients who meet eligibility requirements. Does anyone know whether MNKD would earn the same amount of royalty if this PAP is something like MNKD used to do of capping the monthly patient cost at some very low level until they can get insurance approval... or would the royalty be the same low double digit % on the much smaller amount? |
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Post by mango on May 3, 2023 11:58:51 GMT -5
It is indeed a marvel of engineering. Mr. Offord was correct about that, almost seven years (and one partnership) ago. The years are stacking up, it's past time we stacked up some deals too. That's the missing piece of the equation not priced into the stock. Naked shorts and other manipulation theories would've been rendered meaningless if we'd taken care of that piece. But better late than never, so when will we accomplish that goal and is a sense of urgency too much to ask for... Robin Offord pasted away in 2021 and I’m not so sure if the foundation is still active or not. |
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Post by mango on May 3, 2023 12:13:56 GMT -5
What I’d like to see from michaelcastagna is more transparency regarding the pipeline. Are we looking for more partnerships similar to the UT deal or are we looking to go solo on the pipeline assets currently in development and future development. Are we considering DPI vaccines with other companies? Are we considering space medicine? Are we considering government contracts/partnerships? What about medical countermeasures such as the National Stockpile like Martine Rothblatt dropped when he mentioned the MannKind at the BARDA presentation 5 years ago? All worthwhile avenues to explore, pursue and execute on. |
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Post by sr71 on May 3, 2023 12:50:46 GMT -5
I just listened to today's UTHR 1st Qtr earnings call, and am now more confident than ever on Mannkind's short and midterm prospects.
Current production of Tyvaso DPI is sufficient to meet patient demand, but is not enough to allow UTHR's specialty pharmacies to be fully stocked.
Martine also stated that additional manufacturing capacity at Danbury may come online yet this quarter, and additional expansion there to begin production next year.
Not to mention the construction of UTHR's much larger Tyvaso DPI facility in North Carolina, from which product sales (beginning 2024?) will result in pure royalty profit to the bottom line for Mannkind.
Apparently Wall Street sees it too, since MNKD is up 6% right now for the day.
This takes away part of the sting of authorized shares being doubled later this month.
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