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Post by porkini on Feb 23, 2023 12:25:56 GMT -5
Why do people put in ‘c’ in Tyvaso… Calling it Tyvaso… I read it and I think of Tabasco, Tyvaso does not contain any hot sauce 😆 It's the Southwest Spicy version, variety is good!  |
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Post by Clement on Feb 23, 2023 12:27:28 GMT -5
United Therapeutics fourth quarter sales, including Tyvaso, were down relative to third quarter. That would indicate lower royalties for MNKD. Would it? What if it was the more expensive Tyvaso Nebulizer version that decreased affecting the fourth quarter sales since they made up a bulk of the revenue in the previous quarter while this is still getting rolled out? What if DPI sales were still increasing, but because the nebulizer is more expensive, we should therefore presume less DPI was sold? In Q3: 6.2M in royalty implies 62M in TDPI net sales. Total Tyvaso (both neb and DPI) for Q3 was 257M. Therefore, TDPI was 24% of total Tyvaso sales in Q3. In Q4: Total Tyvaso (both neb and DPI) for Q4 was 242.3M. If TDPI was 30% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 72M in Q4. If TDPI was 40% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 97M in Q4. If TDPI was 50% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 121M in Q4. |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Feb 23, 2023 12:40:02 GMT -5
I don't think we have to guess. Based on the weekly numbers generously posted by kippyt, total DPI sales for Q4 (Symphony only) was around $67M, compared to around $14M for Q3. I don't have the time to extrapolate and compare against numbers reported by UTHR, but we can see a 300%+ increase qtr-to-qtr. I guess we'll see soon enough in a few hours.
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Post by castlerockchris on Feb 23, 2023 13:06:28 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if investors and analysts are able to decouple MNKD's success from UTHR's performance. Yes UTHR's Tyvaso revenue was down, but it looks like the DPI's market share is sky rocketing. While it would be nice if UTHR's Tyvaso revenue would show growth, as a MNKD investor I only care if the DPI portion of that revenue continues to show significant growth. Three to four quarters from now that will change if T-DPI levels out, and that might be what investors are anticipating with the recent flattening in MNKD's stock price. Dr. Martine and her team need to show signs of delivering on doubling Tyvaso "referrals" by 2025. Personally, I am focused on Tyvaso's total growth Y-O-Y, not Q-O-Q. and T-DPI's growth Q-O-Q for the short term. Of course someone on this board can now insert the "just wait until next quarter's earnings call" line here, because that has been our mantra for the last 10+ years. Why not start before we have even seen this quarter's report?  |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 23, 2023 13:14:40 GMT -5
Here is what UTHR said about sales going forward
"We are tremendously proud of reaching our goal of doubling the number of patients on Tyvaso therapy since the Tyvaso PH-ILD approval in early 2021," said Michael Benkowitz, President and Chief Operating Officer of United Therapeutics. "We’re now focused on continued commercial uptake of Tyvaso and Tyvaso DPI in both PAH and PH-ILD to support our long-term goal of doubling our revenue to a $4 billion run rate by the end of 2025.
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 23, 2023 14:35:52 GMT -5
Don't forget that Tyvaso Q4 cost of sales, which includes royalties, cost of good sold and markup is $23.8 million. That's the delimiting factor affecting MNKD's revenue from UT.
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Post by peppy on Feb 23, 2023 14:52:45 GMT -5
Don't forget that Tyvaso Q4 cost of sales, which includes royalties, cost of good sold and markup is $23.8 million. That's the delimiting factor affecting MNKD's revenue from UT. Clements est was 25 million.... so close to this? Clement wrote, Estimate for Q4 2022 ($ in millions): a) Afrezza 12.4 b) VGO 5.4 c) T-DPI royalties 9.7 d) Collaboration and services 15.5 Includes both T-DPI manufacturing and recognition of deferred revenue e) Collaborations and services -- other, not manufacturing 0.4 Total net revenue 43.4 Explanations: a) 110% of Q4 2021 b) same as last quarter c) assume DPI is 40% of UTHR’s Tyvaso revs in Q4 2022. 40% of 242.3M. Then take 10% royalty. d) (royalty Q4 / royalty Q3) times (Q3 collaborations and services for UTHR) = 9.7/6.2 x 9.9 e) same as last quarter |
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Post by peppy on Feb 23, 2023 15:00:03 GMT -5
ronw77077 wrote, I believe the cost of sales reported by UT includes both the royalties and COS. For Q3 UT reported quarterly Tyvaso COS of 17.0 and MNKD reported Collaboration & Service revenue of 10.3 plus royalties of 6.2 for a total of 16.5. Therefore it is likely that MNKD will report Q4 revenues from UT of about 23 plus Afrezza/V-go revenues around 20 for a total of 43, which compares to total MNKD Q# revenue of 32.8. scroll up Consensus. investors.mannkindcorp.com/events-and-presentations02/23/23 5:00 PM EST
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 23, 2023 16:38:18 GMT -5
My January 27, 2023 post:
As of the 3Q report in November 2022, total revenue "all sources" was $64M (the total revenue for all of 2021 was $64M).
Add in projected Q4 revenue from the following "all sources":
Q4 Afrezza/V-Go ~$17M, (Q3 $16.2M) +9%
Q4 Tyvaso ~$7.5M Royalties, (Q3 $6.2M) +8%
Q4 Collaboration and Services Revenue ~$12M (Q3 $10.3M) +8%
Q4 Total revenue of ~$36M. +9% QoQ
Total projected 2022 revenue is $64M (Q1, Q2, Q3)+ $36M (Q4) = $100M 2022 total projected revenue.
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Post by Clement on Feb 23, 2023 16:42:54 GMT -5
Would it? What if it was the more expensive Tyvaso Nebulizer version that decreased affecting the fourth quarter sales since they made up a bulk of the revenue in the previous quarter while this is still getting rolled out? What if DPI sales were still increasing, but because the nebulizer is more expensive, we should therefore presume less DPI was sold? In Q3: 6.2M in royalty implies 62M in TDPI net sales. Total Tyvaso (both neb and DPI) for Q3 was 257M. Therefore, TDPI was 24% of total Tyvaso sales in Q3. In Q4: Total Tyvaso (both neb and DPI) for Q4 was 242.3M. If TDPI was 30% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 72M in Q4. If TDPI was 40% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 97M in Q4. If TDPI was 50% of that, then TDPI net sales for Q4 is 121M in Q4. Now we know, 37.5%. |
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 24, 2023 19:50:59 GMT -5
Following is my synthesis of what we learned from both the UT and MNKD conference calls.
Analysis of MNKD’s 2022 Results and Projections
To say that I am disappointed in the accuracy of my projections for the fourth quarter results would be a huge understatement. Let me first add a bit of color on the explanation and then move on to MNKD’s results, followed by projection information.
Fundamentally, United Therapeutic’s fourth quarter sales for Tyvaso (Nebulizer and DPI) not only did not grow but actually declined slightly from $258 million in Q3 to $242 million in Q4. UT’s explanation of the the shortfall was vague at best. For those interested, the President and Chief Operating Officer offered:
“We are still in launch mode for DPI, particularly for the PH-ILD patients. Specialty pharmacy distributors are still right sizing product orders based on estimated underlying patient demand. Distributors are placing orders more frequently than the once or twice a month historical cadence. These new ordering patterns did impact the timing and size of product orders, Also, we are building inventory at the same time. Distributors are not able to order sufficient product to reach contractual inventory levels per the usual practice. This will normalize over the coming quarters.”
MNKD reported Q4 revenue of $36 million comprised of:
12.0 Afrezza
5.4 V-Go
9.5 C&S -Collaboration and service rev. (i.e., DPI mfg. and cost markup)
9.1 DPI Royalties
Going forward, MNKD stated that C&S revenues will be flat, as will V-Go revenues. So, what will propel MNKD is revenues from Afrezza and DPI royalties. MNKD revenues for all of 2022 totaled $100 million. In Q4 revenues hit a run rate of $145 million (i.e., four quarters at the same $36 million level).
Afrezza has typically experienced annual revenue increases of 11-13%. Annual 2022 Afrezza revenue was $43.3 million. Beginning in January 2023 Afrezza is included in Medicare coverage. Year to date Afrezza sales is up 33%. Assuming Afrezza revenues increase by 25% for the year, this will add $11 million over the Q4 run rate.
DPI royalties are key to revenue growth. The Q4 royalty of $9.1 million indicates total DPI sales of $91 million which was 38% of all Tyvaso sales by UT. This is not inconsistent with UT indicating that DPI sales have reached 50% of all Tyvaso sales at year end.
UT has made a number of strong statements about future DPI sales:
The uptake of DPI patients has been dramatic.
January 2023 prescription levels are very strong.
Of the 30,000 ILD patients in the U.S. only 10% are now being treated by DPI.
UT foresees an increase to 20,000 Tyvaso patients in eighteen months (from 6,000 at year end 2022).
“We are tremendously proud of reaching our goal of doubling the number of patients on Tyvaso therapy since the approval of Tyvaso for PH-ILD in early 2021. We are confident in our ability to double our annual run rate from approximately $2 billion today to $4 billion by the end of 2025.” (Note -Tyvaso is about $1 billion of the $2 billion today and it is the only UT drug experiencing any meaningful growth).
If 75% of 2023 Tyvaso sales are DPI, at (only) $1 billion in sales, MNKD would receive $75 million in 2023 royalties. Taking the $145 million run rate noted above and increasing it $11 million for higher Afrezza and roughly $75 million in DPI royalties will produce 2023 revenue of $230 million. At $2 billion in DPI sales MNKD would receive $200 million in 2023 royalties.
Now let’s look out further. MNKD has pediatric trials underway. These are expected to be completed early in 2024. JP Morgan and MNKD have asserted that every 10% of the pediatric market captured by MNKD would produce $150 million in revenues. And gross profit on Afrezza reached 92% in Q4.
UT has trials underway for the treatment of sufferers of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) with Tyvaso DPI. The estimated U.S. patient populations are:
PAH 45,000
PH - ILD 30,000 No other treatment options
PH- IPF 100,000 Limited treatment options
MNKD is currently expanding the Danbury factory to increase production capacity 10X to meet the IPF market demand. UT is paying for the added equipment. MNKD expects to complete the factory expansion later this year. MNKD’s CEO said demand could be coming in 2024 and beyond. UT has indicated sales in 2026.
Summarily, MNKD is expected to have a terrific 2023 with revenues escalating thereafter.
RonW
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 24, 2023 23:27:53 GMT -5
ronw77077, incredibly well said. My royalty forecast for 2023 is in the same order of magnitude through different assumptions. The biggest assumption is based on UT forecasts of $4B by the end of 2025 and the growth rates across UTs drug portfolio, I see Tyvaso growing from $1B to $3B by the end of 2025. - As part of this 3-year growth, I expect ~ $1.5B in Tyvaso sales in 2023 - In 2025 I’d give DPI 75% penetration, but in 2023 I would still keep 50%. My understanding is that DPI will get more affordable for Medicare patients, which make up 50% of Tyvaso prescriptions, in 2024. So I forecast $1.5B Tyvaso x 50% DPI penetration x 10% royalties = $75M in 2023 royalties. Thanks for your contributions to this board!
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Feb 25, 2023 10:27:38 GMT -5
This chart was posted this morning on StockTwits by realably. It provides a nice look at 2023 and 2024. It kinda helped cool my expectations for profitability in the next couple of quarters. I tried to make it bigger but could not figure out how to.  |
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Post by beardawg on Feb 25, 2023 10:38:38 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if investors and analysts are able to decouple MNKD's success from UTHR's performance. Yes UTHR's Tyvaso revenue was down, but it looks like the DPI's market share is sky rocketing.... I imagine that DPI is cheaper to produce, so even if the overall revenue was down, the net income was likely up. Can anybody confirm? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 25, 2023 10:48:30 GMT -5
MTOI was right again! “Buy all the cheap shares you can.”
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