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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 25, 2023 12:52:22 GMT -5
Tarheel, I shared my memo with Nate Pile who I hold in very high regard. I always enjoy his sage perpective. Following, with his permission, is his response.
Hi Ron -
Great to hear from you... and thanks for sharing!
As we've discussed before (and as you've probably seen me write online over the past day or two), though I no longer put time into this sort of stuff since "the cone of uncertainty" when you look out a couple of quarters is very, very wide for companies at this stage of MannKind's growth, I understand the interest and "need" on the part of analysts and some investors to do so, and I appreciate you sharing the results of your efforts with me!
What you've put together certainly looks "doable," and, as you point out, MNKD appears to be poised to have a great year (and additional years going forward) - here's to hoping the market continues study the situation and reach the same conclusion as you and I have!
Thanks again for sharing your take on things - much appreciated!
Best regards,
Nate Pile, CEO
NotWallStreet.com
By the way Tarheel, I have developed a high regard for your comments as well!
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2023 16:36:07 GMT -5
This chart was posted this morning on StockTwits by realably. It provides a nice look at 2023 and 2024. It kinda helped cool my expectations for profitability in the next couple of quarters. I tried to make it bigger but could not figure out how to. View AttachmentEstimating revenue is always difficult, but I think they are quite a bit off on net interest expense. I don't know what the maturity length is for MNKD's treasuries, but I assume fairly short dated and we've already had over half year of rising rates. It shouldn't be long before MNKD is earning 4.5% on the $170M they have on hand. This chart's "net interest" doesn't seem to recognize that. |
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Post by parrerob on Mar 20, 2023 6:47:52 GMT -5
Hi Guys,
Here below my estimate for what could be "Q1 2023" earning report:
Estimate MNKD Net Revenues Q1 2023: 41 M$ (+14% vs Q4 2022)..... (+244% vs Q1 2022)
due to....
- Afrezza Net Rev 13 M$
- V-Go 5,5M$
- Royalties (Tyvaso DPI) 12.5 M$
- Collaborations and services 10 M$
Just to remind that Net Rev Q4 2022 were +10% against Net Rev Q3 2022 (32,8 M$).
During Q4 2022 We have lost 18 M$ (0,07 $ per share) so that I can estimate, considering the run rate costs (loss from operations and other expenses) comparable to the previous quarter, We will close the quarter at around (0,05 $) per Share or a loss of around 13 Million$
Assumptions – (All based on % from Symphony data)
V-GO Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 8,481 M$ and considering 850K$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +1% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from V-Go is the same of Q4 ’23.
Afrezza Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 18,82 M$ and considering 1,8M$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +10% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from Afrezza is 14,5 M$
Tyvaso DPI Symphony Sales up to March 10th equal to 63,38 M$ and considering 7M$ for each of the remaining 3 weeks we arrive at +37% compared to Q4 2022. So Assumption on Net Rev from Tyvaso is 12,5 M$
Collaborations and Services as stated by the last earning call it will be stable (I consider 10M$)
Just to report from Q4 ’22 Earning call:
Q4 2022 Net Revenues (4 streams)
Afrezza $ 12 M$
V-Go $ 5,4 M$
Revenue — collaborations and services 9,5 M$
Royalties — collaborations 9,07 M$
Total revenues Q4 2022 : 36,059 M$
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Post by neil36 on Mar 20, 2023 6:56:44 GMT -5
Thanks Rob.
The current quarter revenue estimate posted on the Yahoo Analysis page calls for a low estimate of $36.95 million, an average estimate of $37.4 million and a high estimate of $37.6 million. So according to the analysts, your numbers conservative. Cheers.
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Post by Clement on Mar 20, 2023 7:59:00 GMT -5
Estimate MNKD Net Revenues Q1 2023: 41 M$ (+14% vs Q4 2022)..... (+244% vs Q1 2022) due to.... - Afrezza Net Rev 13 M$ - V-Go 5,5M$ - Royalties (Tyvaso DPI) 12.5 M$ - Collaborations and services 10 M$ Parrerob says "Estimate MNKD Net Revenues Q1 2023: 41 M$". My own estimate is very close to this. Neil points out that average analysts' estimate on Yahoo is $37.4M. So Parrerob's estimate is roughly 10% higher than analysts. This is realistic yet it shows growth that will result in an excellent year! |
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Post by parrerob on Mar 20, 2023 8:01:26 GMT -5
Hi Neil
I see.... But honestly don't understand how can be 36,9 and 37,4 respectively the law and medium estimate.... looking at Q4 (36 M$) and the increase of 10% from Afrezza and 37% from Tyvaso.
But We will see......
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 20, 2023 9:38:44 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2023 9:50:49 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen. Thank You Chevy... |
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Post by Clement on Mar 20, 2023 10:13:56 GMT -5
Q4 2022 net revs were $36M. At this run rate, FY2023 will be 4 x $36 = $144M with no growth. However, we expect growth from T-DPI (if nothing else) so let's add some growth. Suppose each quarter in 2023 adds $3M to the preceding quarter. That gives 3 + 6 + 9 + 12 = $30M growth in 2023. $144M + $30M = $174M net revs for FY 2023. This is slightly more than average analysts' estimate* for FY2023. And it is a 74% gain YoY. * finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNKD/analysis?p=MNKD |
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Post by mango on Mar 20, 2023 11:48:32 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen. Profitability this year? Hell yeah! A lot of the more negative people on here have been saying WS is waiting for us to show them the money before our PPS can rise. I will expect a nice PPS rise upon profitability per the Usual Suspects. Sure hope they are right this time! |
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Post by awesomo on Mar 20, 2023 12:49:30 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen. It's not a linear increase like that. You can't just add on revenue without adding on the cost of that revenue to factor into profitability. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 20, 2023 12:55:12 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen. It's not a linear increase like that. You can't just add on revenue without adding on the cost of that revenue to factor into profitability. You may misunderstand. I didn't say ~$5M more in revenue per quarter. I said (perhaps poorly) an ~$5M reduction in losses per quarter will result in MannKind being profitable by Q4 and if there is sufficient acceleration in sales of Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza, by Q3. |
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Post by awesomo on Mar 20, 2023 13:37:39 GMT -5
It's not a linear increase like that. You can't just add on revenue without adding on the cost of that revenue to factor into profitability. You may misunderstand. I didn't say ~$5M more in revenue per quarter. I said (perhaps poorly) an ~$5M reduction in losses per quarter will result in MannKind being profitable by Q4 and if there is sufficient acceleration in sales of Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza, by Q3. How are you lowering losses by $5M per quarter? Total expenses were up 33.9% YoY from 2021 to 2022. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 20, 2023 13:41:24 GMT -5
When do you see profitability?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 20, 2023 14:13:23 GMT -5
You may misunderstand. I didn't say ~$5M more in revenue per quarter. I said (perhaps poorly) an ~$5M reduction in losses per quarter will result in MannKind being profitable by Q4 and if there is sufficient acceleration in sales of Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza, by Q3. How are you lowering losses by $5M per quarter? Total expenses were up 33.9% YoY from 2021 to 2022. That's the cool thing about a company becoming profitable. Their revenue exceeds their expenses, regardless of whether both are increasing.
"$144M + $30M = $174M net revs for FY 2023. This is slightly more than average analysts' estimate* for FY2023. And it is a [forecasted] 74% gain YoY" - Clement
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