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Post by JEvans on Mar 20, 2023 14:19:52 GMT -5
In the wake of any new news!
MNKD should be on a relative linear upward growth path as far as TRx and Revenues as the graphs are suggesting. Profitability should also follow sometime this year if the current upward path continues and its almost certain that it will.
I'm guessing that many people who follow MNKD have been bitten, not just once, but a few times, and currently they are very cautious no matter how well MNKD is positioned.... But we've all been there and thought this before?
Ironically, the only change, and I use the word only very loosly as it took some great work to see it through by many, is the Tyvaso DPI success. Also, Mike and the accountants have done some handy work keeping us afloat untill something went positive, but its anybodies guess that without that, we'd still be Monday Night Quarterbacking (MNQ) about something or another and who knows where the PPS would be today ?
As it is, even with two great quarters behind us and only positive things in front of us...... PPS is on a downward trend since 4Q22 call. Thats anybodies guess, but I did buy some more at 3.95 today and will continue if it allows me too, but I had thought after the 4Q22 call that we'd be in the $6's and maybe fall into the $5's but was I wrong AGAIN....It just headed straight down to 3.95 as of today.
I get annoyed at this Back Seat Driver (BSD) senerious and (MNQ) that goes on but then I realize (for the most part) that the people on this chatroom only care about MNKD and want the best for it and everyone else who only want the best too.
Now is really when the work needs to happen. Pedal to the metal and let her rip......
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 20, 2023 15:10:16 GMT -5
Nicely done! You caught the MNKD share price at today's low. Back in the $4s (for whatever that's worth). I hope you can proudly claim you added at "the bottom". Best of luck to you (absolutely no sarcasm intended).
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Post by cretin11 on Mar 20, 2023 15:10:56 GMT -5
If MannKind lost $18M in 4Q22 and is gaining ~$5M per quarter, 4Q will be profitable. If Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza sales accelerate, it's possible MannKind will be profitable in 3Q. Hallelujah, amen. Profitability this year? Hell yeah! A lot of the more negative people on here have been saying WS is waiting for us to show them the money before our PPS can rise. I will expect a nice PPS rise upon profitability per the Usual Suspects. Sure hope they are right this time! Too bad it's not as simple as you suggest. WS does indeed need us to show them the money, but to expect a significant PPS rise simply upon the news of CFBE is probably setting yourself up for another disappointment. That's because our progression towards profitability is occurring in a measured, predictable way, so the street and any savvy/pro investors see it coming a mile away. In other words, yes, it is priced into our stock (some folks hate that notion but yet again it's true just like it was for Tyvaso approval). It is why we are at $4 instead of $1 or $2, so we're already "enjoying" the benefit of it. For fun I'll predict the quarter. Since most here are saying 3Q2023 or 4Q2023, I'll guess 2Q2024. And "guess" is the right word, i haven't run the numbers like some here have (and thank you for doing that), but based on our collective wisdom being consistently on the too optimistic side, my guess gives us more time to get there. MNKD always takes the slower track. But while I'll continue to mock all the celebrations of 900 TRx as being incredible script growth, I definitely won't mock CFBE. Not expecting it to double our share price when it happens, but it still is a significant milestone for the company and I'll drink to it happening whether that's 3Q2023, 3Q2024 or anywhere in between. |
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Post by awesomo on Mar 20, 2023 15:36:17 GMT -5
How are you lowering losses by $5M per quarter? Total expenses were up 33.9% YoY from 2021 to 2022. That's the cool thing about a company becoming profitable. Their revenue exceeds their expenses, regardless of whether both are increasing.
"$144M + $30M = $174M net revs for FY 2023. This is slightly more than average analysts' estimate* for FY2023. And it is a [forecasted] 74% gain YoY" - Clement
That doesn't answer anything about how you expect to somehow increase profitability by $20M in a quarter by Q42023. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 20, 2023 15:55:21 GMT -5
That's the cool thing about a company becoming profitable. Their revenue exceeds their expenses, regardless of whether both are increasing.
"$144M + $30M = $174M net revs for FY 2023. This is slightly more than average analysts' estimate* for FY2023. And it is a [forecasted] 74% gain YoY" - Clement
That doesn't answer anything about how you expect to somehow increase profitability by $20M in a quarter by Q42023. Somehow? Revenue is growing. And while expenses are growing, the pace of revenue growth is greater than the pace of expenses.
If you were to draw graph which forecast earnings per share, you would see that at some point in the future, the revenue exceeds expenses. That is (roughly) the definition of profitable. Interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization all play a role too and I am loosely lumping them in with "expense" which may annoy you if you're an accountant, but if you're going to go down that path you'll need to look at lots of stuff. e.g., investments in the treasury (if any) and whether they gain or lose (likely lose in this market), et cetera. I'm not pretending to be an analyst or an accountant. Just back o' the napkin ballpark estimate. I can do that because I'm a buy-and-hold long investor, not a trader.
If you don't like the simple math I used (which is reasonable), don't just criticize, provide your own estimate using the values and math you like. |
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Post by Clement on Mar 20, 2023 16:58:53 GMT -5
Related is the "wild card" of deferred revenue. How much leeway does MC have to pull the lever and thereby recognize a chunk of that $38M in deferred revenue. The cost of this deferred revenue has already been recognized, so any recognition of the deferred revenue will go straight to the bottom line.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 20, 2023 17:00:06 GMT -5
At this point in time I would rather see MNKD spend the money on a BIG ABC trial and an afrezza/GLP1 study and a follow-up study for TS GLP1 focusing on the diet market.
I really don't care if they are profitable if they have not done the spade work for big growth. Right now there is plenty of money in the bank to kick off the studies and not need to raise additional capital.
What am I missing? PPS on a biotech is based on potential growth and not profitability. Word of a P2/3 study on inhaled Semaglutide might get some action on the PPS.
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Post by radgray68 on Mar 21, 2023 13:21:43 GMT -5
Related is the "wild card" of deferred revenue. How much leeway does MC have to pull the lever and thereby recognize a chunk of that $38M in deferred revenue. The cost of this deferred revenue has already been recognized, so any recognition of the deferred revenue will go straight to the bottom line. I'm hoping the "wildcard" is the India trial data. The average applicant was BG over 10. The corrected dosing HAS to make a difference for these folks. If it's as good as Al thought it could be, truly superior, then it sets the stage with tremendous buzz being created around our forgotten product leading up to our all-important Pediatric trial readout. A superior result in India also HAS to bring T2's right back into our sights. However, that being said, India is probably the nearest possible event that could set us free, so my impatience may have me a little biased. I just know not too many people believe in Afrezza anymore and something superior could surprise Wall Street. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 21, 2023 14:07:49 GMT -5
The pps is lower than expected following the 4Q call primarily because banks have since gone under and Washington has the U.S. economy, and global politics in a real mess with no one knowing what to expect next. I'm still struggling to get past the wild suggestion that this company has been losing money forever but will likely be profitable by the end of the year yet this is already somehow built into the pps? As if turning profitable won't make a difference. This can't be serious. Oh well. Not worth discussing. I too look forward to the India trial, the 1Q update and hopefully some new news like the next UTHR molecule, the next partner or positive updates from several directions.
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 21, 2023 14:19:27 GMT -5
I'm hoping the "wildcard" is the India trial data. The average applicant was BG over 10. The corrected dosing HAS to make a difference for these folks. If it's as good as Al thought it could be, truly superior, then it sets the stage with tremendous buzz being created around our forgotten product leading up to our all-important Pediatric trial readout. A superior result in India also HAS to bring T2's right back into our sights. This is the India trial - ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/showallp.php?mid1=45751&EncHid=&userName=CiplaIt has the same protocol as Affinity-2, the Phase 3 T2 trial, so the results shouldn't be that different. It's 216 people split into two arms on oral meds with an HbA1c between 7.5 and 10. The treatment is "Inhalation of Appropriate dose of Technosphere® Insulin, just before 3 major meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner) for 24 Weeks." The primary outcome is the HbA1c difference between Afrezza and the placebo, the secondary outcomes are: - the change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) from between TI and placebo groups 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the change in HbA1c from between TI and placebo groups 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects achieving HbA1c ≤7% between TI and placebo groups; 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects requiring rescue treatment for hyperglycaemia between TI and placebo groups. The result will be that Afrezza is superior since the competitor is a placebo and insulin will always win (basal alone would be superior against a placebo!) |
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Post by peppy on Mar 21, 2023 14:27:25 GMT -5
I'm hoping the "wildcard" is the India trial data. The average applicant was BG over 10. The corrected dosing HAS to make a difference for these folks. If it's as good as Al thought it could be, truly superior, then it sets the stage with tremendous buzz being created around our forgotten product leading up to our all-important Pediatric trial readout. A superior result in India also HAS to bring T2's right back into our sights. This is the India trial - ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/showallp.php?mid1=45751&EncHid=&userName=CiplaIt has the same protocol as Affinity-2, the Phase 3 T2 trial, so the results shouldn't be that different. It's 216 people split into two arms on oral meds with an HbA1c between 7.5 and 10. The treatment is "Inhalation of Appropriate dose of Technosphere® Insulin, just before 3 major meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner) for 24 Weeks." The primary outcome is the HbA1c difference between Afrezza and the placebo, the secondary outcomes are: - the change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) from between TI and placebo groups 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the change in HbA1c from between TI and placebo groups 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects achieving HbA1c ≤7% between TI and placebo groups; 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects requiring rescue treatment for hyperglycaemia between TI and placebo groups. The result will be that Afrezza is superior since the competitor is a placebo and insulin will always win (basal alone would be superior against a placebo!) What do you think the placebo is? |
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 21, 2023 14:49:39 GMT -5
... The result will be that Afrezza is superior since the competitor is a placebo and insulin will always win (basal alone would be superior against a placebo!) What do you think the placebo is? It will be pure TS. |
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Post by cretin11 on Mar 21, 2023 15:09:11 GMT -5
I'm still struggling to get past the wild suggestion that this company has been losing money forever but will likely be profitable by the end of the year yet this is already somehow built into the pps? As if turning profitable won't make a difference. This can't be serious. Oh well. Not worth discussing. I too look forward to the India trial, the 1Q update and hopefully some new news like the next UTHR molecule, the next partner or positive updates from several directions. What you call a "wild suggestion" might actually be worth discussing. If you are correct, that means the day (or week, month, quarter, whatever) we turn profitable we can expect an immediate boost in our share price. Is that a 100% boost, 50%, or less? If you're suggesting even a 30% boost, i find that to be more of a wild prediction than my theory that CFBE is already priced in. Even us amateurs here can predict CFBE is coming relatively soon, should we believe we have some secret sauce the rest of the market doesn't have? The numbers are public. The most recent analogy is Tyvaso approval. Remember the hype we had here for that event? We had predictions and even a poll, the $6 to $8 range was the most popular opinion. Some of us suggested it was priced in, we were ridiculed for that wildly pessimistic suggestion. We know how that turned out: approval had in fact been priced in quite accurately by the market. Go back and read the posts on that thread to get a reality check with the benefit of hindsight. The accurate part of your post is mentioning the next UTHR molecule and/or next partner. Those are the things we need, we've been saying that for years now but we still need them. Those things would actually give our share price a boost because it seems the market has little confidence in them happening (otherwise approaching CFBE why the heck are we still muddling around in the $4 range i.e. RS $0.80). |
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Post by neil36 on Mar 21, 2023 15:23:48 GMT -5
The analysts have access to the same information we do and their estimate for next year is fifteen cents a share. Just apply your favorite "reasonhable" forward growth rate multiple and that's where the stock price would be "reasonable". Hopefully their estimates for next year gradually grind higher, but right now their models come up with fifteen cents.
A really significant move up will require multiple upside surprises, and maybe a surprise announcement/partnership/molecule of some kind. It's been quite a while since we've had a positive surprise announcement of any kind.
Additionally, we all really enjoyed nearly a full month of trading above five dollars. In that realm, the convertible debt is a dilution threat. But in the low fours, it becomes a significant debt overhang, (assuming this somehow is in the fours a couple years from now). I'm quite confident this will be trading well above the conversion price by then. It's just not fun hanging out at roughly the same stock price we had prior to Tyvaso DPI approval.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 21, 2023 17:04:01 GMT -5
This is the India trial - ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/showallp.php?mid1=45751&EncHid=&userName=CiplaIt has the same protocol as Affinity-2, the Phase 3 T2 trial, so the results shouldn't be that different. It's 216 people split into two arms on oral meds with an HbA1c between 7.5 and 10. The treatment is "Inhalation of Appropriate dose of Technosphere® Insulin, just before 3 major meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner) for 24 Weeks." The primary outcome is the HbA1c difference between Afrezza and the placebo, the secondary outcomes are: - the change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) from between TI and placebo groups 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the change in HbA1c from between TI and placebo groups 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects achieving HbA1c ≤7% between TI and placebo groups; 12 Weeks and 24 Weeks - the proportion of subjects requiring rescue treatment for hyperglycaemia between TI and placebo groups. The result will be that Afrezza is superior since the competitor is a placebo and insulin will always win (basal alone would be superior against a placebo!) What do you think the placebo is? Peppy - as Aged said this is the exact same study as Affinity 2 and will show the exact same result - afrezza will show superiority. Whether the superiority will be superior to Affinity 2 depends on the dosing. I doubt its different and it says nothing about follow-up dosing. All I hope is MNKD is not paying any money to support this trial. IMO, this study is a complete waste of time with the exception to check the box in India. Then again, as Mike has said and has been said on this board in the past there is no money to be made in India. |
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