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Post by liane on Jul 20, 2023 10:22:48 GMT -5
It's never accurate until the company itself releases a date - usually a week before the earnings call.
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Post by Clement on Jul 26, 2023 6:57:39 GMT -5
UTHR EC will be on Aug 2. (announcement posted in UTHR thread))
Add 6 days to that and you get a guess for MNKD EC on Aug 8.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jul 26, 2023 7:14:14 GMT -5
Just saw a new Seeking Alpha article putting a caution spin on MNKD. This type article usually precedes an increase in share price  |
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Post by brentie on Jul 26, 2023 7:47:31 GMT -5
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Post by cjm18 on Jul 26, 2023 9:01:50 GMT -5
He didn’t read the 10q about the debt. |
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Post by neil36 on Jul 26, 2023 12:38:51 GMT -5
So what is the Seeking Alpha hit piece thesis?
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Post by wyattdog on Jul 26, 2023 12:58:34 GMT -5
So what is the Seeking Alpha hit piece thesis? he upgraded the stock from a sell to a hold |
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Post by porkini on Jul 26, 2023 13:11:30 GMT -5
So what is the Seeking Alpha hit piece thesis? I skimmed the article rather quickly, but it didn't seem like a "hit piece" as is typical with authors like "Lousy Fud Distributor". |
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Post by cppoly on Jul 27, 2023 8:40:09 GMT -5
Just curious, if we project out the last reportable week of scripts for Tyvaso DPI ending the 1st quarter and assume this number weekly number for the entire second quarter, where would that put MNKD in terms of revenue for DPI?
This assumes zero growth in scripts. But we all know and hope it's going to be better than this.
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Post by harryx1 on Jul 27, 2023 9:25:46 GMT -5
Here's my guesstimate for Tyvaso DPI...  |
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Post by ronw77077 on Jul 27, 2023 9:54:40 GMT -5
I don't understand the basis for the numbers in the graph. In Q1 UT reported 238.4 M in total Tyvaso sales. From that MNKD received $11.7m in royalties. If we assume royalties are 10% then DPI sales were $117 M or 49% of total Tyvaso sales. If this is correct, we better hope DPI sales are a heck of a lot higher than $98 M.
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Post by peppy on Jul 27, 2023 10:02:55 GMT -5
I don't understand the basis for the numbers in the graph. In Q1 UT reported 238.4 M in total Tyvaso sales. From that MNKD received $11.7m in royalties. If we assume royalties are 10% then DPI sales were $117 M or 49% of total Tyvaso sales. If this is correct, we better hope DPI sales are a heck of a lot higher than $98 M. just talking here. What are TYVASO and TYVASO DPI? TYVASO (treprostinil) Inhalation Solution and TYVASO DPI (treprostinil) Inhalation Powder are prescription medicines used in adults to treat: www.tyvaso.com |
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Post by harryx1 on Jul 27, 2023 10:16:57 GMT -5
ronw77077 - those are numbers from Symphony only which excludes other sale channels i.e. specialty pharmacies, etc
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 27, 2023 14:51:35 GMT -5
I don't understand the basis for the numbers in the graph. In Q1 UT reported 238.4 M in total Tyvaso sales. From that MNKD received $11.7m in royalties. If we assume royalties are 10% then DPI sales were $117 M or 49% of total Tyvaso sales. If this is correct, we better hope DPI sales are a heck of a lot higher than $98 M. If we assume the Symphony numbers in HarryX1's chart for Tyvaso DPI for Q4 and Q1 faithfully reported Rx sales value proportional to the whole, then we know sales of Tyvaso DPI grew 40% between Q4 and Q1.
If we can assume the same growth rate, and using 10% (lowest possible "double digit royalty") and estimating that Tyvaso DPI sales were $117M in Q1, then Q2 sales will be 40% more than $117M (i.e., $163.8M) and royalties will be 10% of $163.8M or 16.38M.
I assume Tyvaso DPI growth rate will be higher than 40% QoQ (based on 2 year >$2B/year guidance from UTHR). And, I also assume MNKD royalties >10%.
I assume royalties for Q2 will be >$18M.
Math and assumption checking welcome.
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Post by ronw77077 on Jul 27, 2023 16:10:05 GMT -5
Thank you both prcgorman2 and harryx1 for the comments and explanations. If prcgorman2 is correct at $18.2 then we are looking at $47-$48 M total Q2 MNKD revenue. And,that's exactly what tarblue004 predicted. I'll be having a glass of wine tonight!
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