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Post by tarheelblue004 on Jul 27, 2023 18:05:18 GMT -5
Here is another way to think about it. More boring, but watching money compound can be boring - until it isn't  Based on the low revenue and growth of the non-TDPI aspect of UT's product portfolio, I expect at least 15k 2025 patients, or ~60% of the 25k goal, to be on Tyvaso DPI. At the mid-point of Mike's guidance, 10k patients = $220M MNKD revenue, so 15k patients = $330M / year = $83M / quarter. We are currently at $23M / quarter. Over the next 11 quarters, a "measly" 12.3% growth quarter over quarter in TDPI sales will take us from $23M / quarter today to $83M / quarter by the end of 2025, annualized to $330M / year in Tyvaso DPI revenue for MannKind! |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Jul 28, 2023 7:13:48 GMT -5
Here is another way to think about it. More boring, but watching money compound can be boring - until it isn't Based on the low revenue and growth of the non-TDPI aspect of UT's product portfolio, I expect at least 15k 2025 patients, or ~60% of the 25k goal, to be on Tyvaso DPI. At the mid-point of Mike's guidance, 10k patients = $220M MNKD revenue, so 15k patients = $330M / year = $83M / quarter. We are currently at $23M / quarter. Over the next 11 quarters, a "measly" 12.3% growth quarter over quarter in TDPI sales will take us from $23M / quarter today to $83M / quarter by the end of 2025, annualized to $330M / year in Tyvaso DPI revenue for MannKind! And just putting more numbers behind the hypothesis: By 2025, with Tyvaso DPI Revenue at $330M per annum, can we also assume an Afrezza Pediatric success which could take Afrezza revenue from $25M a quarter to $50M a quarter or $200M annually (from approx 1000 scripts per week to 2000 scripts)? At that point (2025), without any other surprises, Mannkind is a $500M+ revenue company and most assuredly a profitable one. The question is how many shares will be outstanding and how will that translate into share price? Today at 260+ Million shares outstanding, a $4.35 share price values an unprofitable $150 Million dollar revenue company at over a $1 Billion market capitalization (which seems reasonable). A profitable $500 Million Company, and let's say 300 Million Shares outstanding, is 2025 when we see $10 a share (or a $3 Billion market capitalization). Trying to be fair and modest in my own expectations of share price. Certainly, the spectre of another partnership or two on another molecule and/or Clofazimine with potential sales in those markets projected could press the share price / valuations further with those expectations, but just wondering out loud if the board thinks those are reasonable expectations to have ($500 Million Revenue, 300 Million Shares outstanding, $10 Share price giving a $3 Billion market cap by the end of 2025)? Certainly, under those conditions, a buy out, coming at a premium would be something closer to $5 Billion or something around $16-$17 a share if all these growth projection puzzle pieces can come together. Any other thoughts? GLTA |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 28, 2023 7:33:06 GMT -5
I like that the average P/E ratio provides excellent leverage for a modest EPS. I think of those fundamentals as nearly immutable. P/E varies by market and industry sector, and I haven’t checked lately, but the lowest average P/E I remember seeing was $17 PPS for every $1 EPS. Years ago I studied the BP sector and the average P/E then was a range of 24:1 to 40:1 with exceptional outliers as high as 70:1. My gut says your revenue projections are generous but that your shares outstanding estimate is reasonable. You can make your own guess about what EPS may look like on the low and high side of things and research where average P/E is for BP sector these days but even being more conservative than what you described should still yield a PPS better than $10/share IMHO.
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Post by Clement on Jul 28, 2023 7:46:02 GMT -5
Afrezza $25M per quarter is from Symphony numbers, which are gross revenue. Net revenue is a little more than half of that.
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Post by Clement on Jul 28, 2023 8:27:37 GMT -5
Here is another way to think about it. More boring, but watching money compound can be boring - until it isn't Based on the low revenue and growth of the non-TDPI aspect of UT's product portfolio, I expect at least 15k 2025 patients, or ~60% of the 25k goal, to be on Tyvaso DPI. At the mid-point of Mike's guidance, 10k patients = $220M MNKD revenue, so 15k patients = $330M / year = $83M / quarter. We are currently at $23M / quarter. Over the next 11 quarters, a "measly" 12.3% growth quarter over quarter in TDPI sales will take us from $23M / quarter today to $83M / quarter by the end of 2025, annualized to $330M / year in Tyvaso DPI revenue for MannKind! I like your approach -- looking at number of patients. Now let's add UTHR investments in manufacturing capacity into the picture. Martine said that MNKD should have, by end of 2024, manufacturing capacity for 25K T-DPI patients. She also said that the new UTHR T-DPI facility should be in production by 2026 and it will have capacity for 25k patients (and capability to surge for another 25k). It appears that UTHR is expecting a large increase in number of patients or they wouldn't spend the money to build out all this T-DPI manufacturing capacity. Assuming 2025 production at only 60% of MNKD capacity, you get your 15k patients. But a higher % of capacity is probably expected by UTHR for 2025. |
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Post by Clement on Jul 28, 2023 14:58:36 GMT -5
Q2 2022 UTHR earnings call was on Aug 3. Soon, we'll find out about Tyvaso revenues and PAP utilization. We will then apply our favorite percentages to calculate TDPI sales and finally royalties to MNKD. In advance of UTHR earnings, what is your favorite percentage? Ie, how much TDPI compared to total Tyvaso? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 28, 2023 15:02:21 GMT -5
IIRC you have to impute that percentage based on reported royalties paid to MannKind. i.e.,g UTHR doesn't share the breakdown between Tyvaso DPI and Tyvaso.
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Post by Clement on Jul 28, 2023 15:06:26 GMT -5
IIRC you have to impute that percentage based on reported royalties paid to MannKind. i.e.,g UTHR doesn't share the breakdown between Tyvaso DPI and Tyvaso. Yes ... if you wait for the MNKD EC. But I'm impatient and wanting to have some fun guessing TDPI revenues based on total Tyvaso revenues. Later, we can see how we match actual numbers from the MNKD EC. I'm gonna go wild and say 55%, which is probably high because of PAP utilization. |
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Post by Clement on Jul 29, 2023 6:21:32 GMT -5
Suppose, on Wednesday morning, UTHR reports total Tyvaso net revenues of $260M. That's not much of an increase over preceding quarters.
Suppose 55% of that is TDPI. Last quarter it was 49%.
55% of 260M is 143M. 10% of 143M gives us 14.3M in royalties to MNKD.
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Post by hellodolly on Jul 29, 2023 6:46:25 GMT -5
Suppose, on Wednesday morning, UTHR reports total Tyvaso net revenues of $260M. That's not much of an increase over preceding quarters. Suppose 55% of that is TDPI. 55% of 260M is 143M. 10% of 143M gives us 14.3M in royalties to MNKD. I would suspect UTHR will make the decision to announce the conversion of the Tyvaso population who make up TDPI vs Tyvaso in order to satisfy the markets desire to learn how successful TDPI has become, and...to brag that they have conquered their goals for XYZ% conversion. I would suspect they want to describe the success of this program. Revenue will essentially plateau in both product groups. It won't make sense to keep both groups revenue figures combined any longer at that point. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 29, 2023 8:16:20 GMT -5
I don’t remember the exact percentage of Tyvaso DPI test subjects at the end of the test elected to continue on the DPI formulation but I think it was close to 100%. The conversion rate may be similar and the conversion sales process similar to saying something like “Your patients will most likely prefer DPI because that’s been the response, and that should hopefully result in better outcomes”. The conversion rates seem to be dictated by when patients have their doctor visits, so I’m guessing the 40% increase we saw between 4Q and 1Q is going to be the rate we see for 2Q to 1Q.
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Post by letitride on Jul 29, 2023 11:31:27 GMT -5
Just to keep it simple. Suppose Martine says due to our increased capacity to produce TDPI and increased demand for it we just switched everyone for convenience sake to TDPI.
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Post by uvula on Jul 29, 2023 12:55:23 GMT -5
Uthr won't switch everyone to the new stuff until they sell their entire inventory of old stuff. Otherwise they have to eat the cost of the old stuff they already made.
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 29, 2023 15:16:48 GMT -5
Uthr won't switch everyone to the new stuff until they sell their entire inventory of old stuff. Otherwise they have to eat the cost of the old stuff they already made. Switching needs the doctor to change the prescription as it's a different drug (delivery via DPI rather than nebulizer and in different dose sizes.) Martine may want people to change, but she cannot make them change. More to the point she wouldn't do it because it would upset the doctors and no pharma wants to do that. |
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Post by anderson on Jul 29, 2023 21:33:05 GMT -5
I don’t remember the exact percentage of Tyvaso DPI test subjects at the end of the test elected to continue on the DPI formulation but I think it was close to 100%. The conversion rate may be similar and the conversion sales process similar to saying something like “Your patients will most likely prefer DPI because that’s been the response, and that should hopefully result in better outcomes”. The conversion rates seem to be dictated by when patients have their doctor visits, so I’m guessing the 40% increase we saw between 4Q and 1Q is going to be the rate we see for 2Q to 1Q.
I believe it is very easy to predict MNKD Tyvaso DPI revenue from UTHR 10q. Example last quarter
UTHR 10q 1st quarter 11. Segment Information
cost of Tyvaso sales 26.9 mil
MNKD 10q 1st quarter 10. Collaboration, Licensing and Other Arrangements Total revenue from UT (both CSA and UT License Agreement 11.3M and royalties 11.7m) $23m
Mike said on one of the calls CSA will stabilize to about 9 mil a quarter the the rest will be royalty growth. There is also the chance for some of the deferred income to be recognized that will skew this, but hopefully will be labeled as such so that we can calculate growth with the royalty increase.
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