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Post by mnholdem on Oct 9, 2014 20:23:46 GMT -5
Disciples of Warren Buffet's investment strategies call themselves fools. I guess us idiots must be related. Is it possible that we'll be the rich relatives? Eee-yup!
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Post by rak5555 on Oct 9, 2014 20:29:04 GMT -5
Wow! I feel like the priest in the confessional on this thread. OK everyone - your penance is 3 Hail Marys and go out and buy 1000 more shares tomorrow. Better hurry, the market opens in 12 hours and then it will be 2.85 Hail Marys |
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Post by kc on Oct 9, 2014 21:17:42 GMT -5
We are all in the boat together. I have averaged down twice and might buy again depending on market after November 15.
even with averaging Down I have a -38% decline. Does it bother me heck ya. But I also see the sky from the depths of the dense forest. I know that my investment might be ugly today but that in 12 to 18 months I will be showing a gain. Will I get average return on my investment? I hope so. Last year my portfolio had a 23% return. At this point if MannKind was at 7 to 9 first quarter of 2014 I would be excited. But let's chat 3rd quarter 2015. Perhaps we will be at 15.00 per share.
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Post by spiro on Oct 9, 2014 21:23:10 GMT -5
Ok, I am IDIOT also. I can't believe I love this board so much, when most everyone who posts here are self proclaimed idiots. At least I have a small excuse, I am a Greek. But believe me, one thing is certain, I am not going to sell out my now diminished position in MNKD. I am going to remain an idiot until this thing plays out. Hopefully, that will make me smart.
Spiro here, the Greek Village Idiot
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Post by seanismorris on Oct 9, 2014 21:43:25 GMT -5
I sold some at $10.35~ before the partnership announcement. I was getting nervous about the run up and my outsized position in MNKD. Now I wish I sold more...but I've still been buying (twice) on the way down. I never thought we'd break the ~$7 support (last time I bought). I'm looking to buy more soon. I've never been more confident in the investment in Mannkind, I just wish I had more ammo.
Am I an idiot? I'll let you know in two years.
Also, I'm a mutt so I can't comment on anyone's Greekyness.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 10, 2014 5:36:37 GMT -5
I bought MNKD back in Jan after doing my DD and my irrational exuberance caused me to buy way too many Call options. Silly me thought after AdCom approval MNKD would be EASILY over $20, then I thought it would most DEFINITELY after FDA approval. Many felt the same way and even higher while we waited for the partnership(s)/BO announcement. Now as investment dreams turn into nightmares I like many here have significantly lowered where we hope (and pray) the stock will be this time next year. No longer do I read estimates over $20, but instead $10 if all goes well or $15 if we're extremely lucky. And we on this board are the diehard MNKD investors. This alone explains why the stock has slide so much. Why would the casual investors, momentum players, hedge funds, etc invest in MNKD when we are lowering our estimates on price performance?
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Post by daduke38 on Oct 10, 2014 6:17:05 GMT -5
The amount of honesty is astounding. It all make no sense, but hopefully our reward is still hidden or will just take a bit longer. I respect the opinions of people on this board. Lianne, your 3 Hail Marys was priceless.
I have been doning this a long time, and have had a few more successes then failures. I never, ever saw 4's coming!
And I hate to say it, but it will drop again today, i am afraid.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 7:34:11 GMT -5
I never, ever saw 4's coming! Remember Karp? He predicted a price of 1. Then if it rebounds to 2, we can say it went up 100% Avogadro ( a numb long in a little bit of stock and a little bit of Call options) |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 10, 2014 7:58:32 GMT -5
My pizza guy must be even a bigger idiot and doesn't even know it yet...he listened to me and continues to buy on the way down....he wouldn't know a proboard from a surfboard...somehow I have a feeling he will be a very happy idiot a year from now or I might be eating my next slice with a new topping currently not on the menu called arsenic  Seriously, a year from now this thread could be somewhere else titled by a short "Am I the only one who remained short after the "Mannkind Reality Check" hit piece....one short out of how many who knows, what we do know however is that position is still in tact as we sit at these levels...it remains to be seen who the bigger idiots end up being but I along with several others whom I know that most likely will be reading this in all different fields and backgrounds are collectively behind the Mann and the science. One question, if we're all idiots, then what does that make the biggest shareholder of this company? That would be one helluva an idiot with a tremendous track record....somehow we all believe that he is an idiot that is just a smidge bit smarter than the ones in that thread a year from now. Oh and btw, guess all the idiots that held vs. the shorts in EXAS are feeling a bit smarter today ... Exact Sciences to see significant short squeeze on CMS decision, says Canaccord Canaccord raised its price target on Exact Sciences to $32 from $23 following the surprise assignment of CMS codes determinations. The firm said the three codes lead to a much higher price than what had been expected. Canaccord expects a significant short squeeze in the stock and reiterates its Buy rating on Exact Sciences. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 10, 2014 8:23:10 GMT -5
My pizza guy must be even a bigger idiot and doesn't even know it yet...he listened to me and continues to buy on the way down....he wouldn't know a proboard from a surfboard...somehow I have a feeling he will be a very happy idiot a year from now or I might be eating my next slice with a new topping currently not on the menu called arsenic Seriously, a year from now this thread could be somewhere else titled by a short "Am I the only one who remained short after the "Mannkind Reality Check" hit piece....one short out of how many who knows, what we do know however is that position is still in tact as we sit at these levels...it remains to be seen who the bigger idiots end up being but I along with several others whom I know that most likely will be reading this in all different fields and backgrounds are collectively behind the Mann and the science. One question, if we're all idiots, then what does that make the biggest shareholder of this company? That would be one helluva an idiot with a tremendous track record....somehow we all believe that he is an idiot that is just a smidge bit smarter than the ones in that thread a year from now. Oh and btw, guess all the idiots that held vs. the shorts in EXAS are feeling a bit smarter today ... Exact Sciences to see significant short squeeze on CMS decision, says Canaccord Canaccord raised its price target on Exact Sciences to $32 from $23 following the surprise assignment of CMS codes determinations. The firm said the three codes lead to a much higher price than what had been expected. Canaccord expects a significant short squeeze in the stock and reiterates its Buy rating on Exact Sciences. So the question is what is the definition of a MNKD idiot? Those who bought the stock to make money or those who bought because they wanted Afrezza to succeed? You can have both but not everyone will have them in the same order which is causing us stock indigestion! Al has Afrezza succeeding first so stock price is a distant second. I'm not rich like Al so I want the stock price to do well and Afrezza second. You can argue that once Afrezza does well the stock price will follow, but I'm not convinced that we will be rewarded for the risk we've taken. I've been wrestling with how MNKD will be able to get the rottweiler that is the SI in the stock off of it and I have yet to come up with an answer. Gone are the binary events that so many said would do so, and now we wait for sales to start. I see a slow grind up as sales meet or exceed projections, but until we have a MUCH stronger counterbalance to the shorts, the shorts will control the stock price. I use as proof the INCREASE in SI as the stock goes below $5. We all have been wondering when they will start to cover (we've made wondering all year), what will be the trigger and how quickly will the SI go down. I think is will NOT be a balloon pop but a slow release. A controlled start of sales seems to ensure this is how things will play out. Of course I like all of us on here really only have limit information on what will occur in the next few months and year time frame so we can only make (educated?) guesses and make course corrections as new details come out. |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 10, 2014 8:57:59 GMT -5
The amount of honesty is astounding. It all make no sense, but hopefully our reward is still hidden or will just take a bit longer. I respect the opinions of people on this board. Lianne, your 3 Hail Marys was priceless. I have been doning this a long time, and have had a few more successes then failures. I never, ever saw 4's coming! And I hate to say it, but it will drop again today, i am afraid. My penance would've been three Bloody Mary's. However, as I stated somewhere on some thread (hard to keep track) I prefer my MNKD undiluted and straight up rather than on the rocks.
My initial investment averaged around 7.25 and I locked in half at 10.34 so my net is still slightly positive. Although the remainder of my position is down, I'm not out. I dumped my Wellgreen Platinum stock about 6 weeks ago when it became apparent what was happening and sat on it waiting for an entry point, which I bought two days ago. I thought $5.0199 was the bottom or very close to it, but who knows?
Sure, I feel lucky and like an idiot for not locking it all in at the time, but this is my first venture into biotech stock. Lucky me, I happen to pick a company with huge short interest. I didn't even know the definition of short interest. How was I to know this would happen? So I, like others, am learning as I go. I thought the shorts' bashing about how the pps would drop were lies, but they weren't really.
So I'm a smarter idiot - how's that for an oxymoron? Perhaps the sliding pps has forced all of us to think more realistically, but I'm not alone in thinking that MNKD would skyrocket on approval and partnership announcements or that some other news besides sales will propel this thing northward. My concern is that some longs will give up hope. Me? Never, baby!
In the long run of 2-5 years, even if I had loaded up at $10/share, I'll be happy with my investment. So our timing may be off. Does that really make us idiots? From a longer point of view, the risk/reward still screams "buy".
And one more confession (so that'll be four Bloody Mary's). I initially bought MNKD as a short-term investment after some basic DD. Since then I've learned so much about Afrezza and diabetes that I gladly have moved this investment into my long-term portfolio. Some of you longs knew the potential ten years ago and now I understand why you've stuck with MannKind for a decade. I believe in the company and its technology and I'm really glad I was fortunate enough to discover it.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 10, 2014 9:47:23 GMT -5
To quote one of my all time favorite idiot's, and there are a few... (for those of you who are either old enough or just movie buffs) "I like to watch..." and so we sit and watch this situation play out, since for many that is almost all they can do aside from sell, but that would then make them bigger idiots...? At any rate I have to give Baba his props, not for his earlier tome in this thread, but for his use of a Ouija Board, crystal ball or whatever it is that he uses to predict the future, surely it could not be common sense or experience...  Back a few months ago just after it had been approved by the FDA, and the stock was in the 8's and still declining, Baba told me that he would not be surprised to see the shorts drive it down into the $4.50 pps range. I thought he was nuts... Turns out I hope he was saving his nuts as now is the time to spend them I think... But every time I spend my own the price goes down so perhaps Baba should wait for me to spend mine first... So while we all sit and watch... whether you are buying more or just sitting... I will refer to my Avitar quote about this situation and just say "Nuts!" And to his credit I am still waiting on the phone call that said I told you so... Perhaps he is gracious enough as a gentleman to not say anything, or he knows enough to understand how painful this can be or perhaps he is waiting until it literally hits $4.59... In any event I won't wait for his call... Or for it to literally hit the $4.50's... I will just say it now... Baba you were right! NUTS! |
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Post by pmikeks on Oct 10, 2014 10:02:06 GMT -5
I held and added some more at $9.50 thinking it was just a dip before the rise. Bought more at $5.35 but not going to buy more until Matt has the BOGO sale at $1. My wife bought in at $10.50 after partnership, boy is she a happy camper. NOT!!!
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Post by mdcenter61 on Oct 10, 2014 11:22:09 GMT -5
I'm with you, bro!
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 10, 2014 11:30:50 GMT -5
I held and added some more at $9.50 thinking it was just a dip before the rise. Bought more at $5.35 but not going to buy more until Matt has the BOGO sale at $1. My wife bought in at $10.50 after partnership, boy is she a happy camper. NOT!!! So if you believe in MNKD then consider this a buying opportunity. If she doubles her investment then she can get her cost basis down into the $7 range. Try to determine how comfortable you feel projecting what the price will be this time next year. I think $7 is definitely doable by then if not higher ($15 range). |
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