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Post by babaoriley on Oct 10, 2014 11:50:15 GMT -5
Joey, I have some EXAS, I haven't even looked at it today, but since I'm in it, I doubt we'll see a short squeeze! In fact, it will likely go down someway, somehow, just to spite me! I do think they will do well with their new product. And I think ACAD will do well with its product, when it finally gets approval, but it seems like a wonder drug for a nice niche (Parkinson's disease psychosis, with a possibilit of being helpful to those with Alzheimer's).
Mannmade, you're a true gentleman and a great leader of this board! "I told you so's" won't cut it, very, very empty, especially since I only talked that talk, and did no walking. But I will call you and we can get together for lunch, I've just been busy at the day job lately, thank goodness for that!
This whole business is perverse.
Just looked, EXAS is doing well!
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Post by mrv on Oct 10, 2014 12:21:52 GMT -5
It is an honor to be an "idiot" in a sophisticated group of "idiots". I have experienced the lows and highs and the lows again, just like most of you have, and I am still holding on to my shares. As some have said "we will not sell our shares until Al Mann sells his shares".
Of course I do not know the reason(s) of the drop in pps after the partnership announcement, and it does concern me a bit, however I convince myself that I will be rewarded for my patience.
The reasons are simple:
1. Al Mann being a smart businessman, would not jeopardize his investment by signing an unfavorable deal with Sanofi
2. Sanofi being one of the top pharma companies, would not waste their time and money if they do not believe in the success of Affreza.
GLTA!!!
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Post by noonen on Oct 11, 2014 2:09:49 GMT -5
"Hi I my name is noonen. I am an idiot."
Still holding. Same reasons as most others here.
On the market side, I ruined my lovely super low cost basis by buying on the way up at $6 and $9. Now, have nibbled all the way down, although wish I could switch the quantities on my $8 and $9 buys with those of my $5 buys. holy hell this is brutal. Besides a fortuitous gamble around adcom, this stock has brutalized me. a lot different than my nice quiet little dividend payers. hah.
I'm still trying to figure out why this is happening besides the short manipulation theory. Thinking it can't just be the wait on sales, so I turn to cash.
41 cash at 6/30.
70 6/30 q said $70m left under deerfield at that point. Assuming that's all been received (fda approval and partner closing)
150 sanofi upfront.
260 cash now, excluding monthly cash burn in Q3.
30 Mann facility availability.
290 total cash and availability (ex. $175MM SNY facility for partnership operating losses and $775MM potential milestones)
(100) 2015 notes due 8/15, $6.80 conversion px, so unless stock pops a lot, it's likely this will be paid off.
190 Cash remaining to get MNKD to Afrezza profitability
$190MM is enough to get MNKD through 15, almost 16 months of cash burn at $12MM per month, roughly the previous burn rate. So let's say we only have 14 months to see if Afrezza is going to be what we want it to be. This does not take into account the fact that the $175MM loan facility can (will?) be used to absorb initial losses of afrezza launch or any of the first Sanofi milestones which we all hope are easy to attain.
Cash isn't the issue. And unless I am off, it looks like they can spend some on the pipeline (like the pain mgmt patent we just saw). That's a positive dammit!
So yep it's sales. Maybe the Q3 financials will already start reflecting the changes of the parntership, and maybe we'll get some sort of surprise milestone that's been hit with Q3 earnings release.
Doubt it though. My eye-twitch that started a couple weeks ago watching Mannkind is likely to turn into full body convulsions as we keep going down.
Good luck to all, and here's hoping that 2 years from now we're in a better spot.
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Post by rockstarrick on Oct 11, 2014 22:00:16 GMT -5
Daduke, you know I'm not selling, I'm buying, Monday the share count goes up 10,000. Hand tight, we're good. RSR
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Post by daduke38 on Oct 12, 2014 7:37:05 GMT -5
Daduke, you know I'm not selling, I'm buying, Monday the share count goes up 10,000. Hand tight, we're good. RSR I am not selling, haven't sold a share! Bought a few Jan 2015 calls that may be dead but I have been adding shares at $0.50 PPS shares as we have dropped. We are close enough to $4.50 that I will probabaly add again Monday too! |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 12, 2014 10:52:52 GMT -5
"Hi I my name is noonen. I am an idiot." Still holding. Same reasons as most others here. On the market side, I ruined my lovely super low cost basis by buying on the way up at $6 and $9. Now, have nibbled all the way down, although wish I could switch the quantities on my $8 and $9 buys with those of my $5 buys. holy hell this is brutal. Besides a fortuitous gamble around adcom, this stock has brutalized me. a lot different than my nice quiet little dividend payers. hah. I'm still trying to figure out why this is happening besides the short manipulation theory. Thinking it can't just be the wait on sales, so I turn to cash. 41 cash at 6/30. 70 6/30 q said $70m left under deerfield at that point. Assuming that's all been received (fda approval and partner closing) 150 sanofi upfront. 260 cash now, excluding monthly cash burn in Q3. 30 Mann facility availability. 290 total cash and availability (ex. $175MM SNY facility for partnership operating losses and $775MM potential milestones) (100) 2015 notes due 8/15, $6.80 conversion px, so unless stock pops a lot, it's likely this will be paid off. 190 Cash remaining to get MNKD to Afrezza profitability $190MM is enough to get MNKD through 15, almost 16 months of cash burn at $12MM per month, roughly the previous burn rate. So let's say we only have 14 months to see if Afrezza is going to be what we want it to be. This does not take into account the fact that the $175MM loan facility can (will?) be used to absorb initial losses of afrezza launch or any of the first Sanofi milestones which we all hope are easy to attain.
Cash isn't the issue. And unless I am off, it looks like they can spend some on the pipeline (like the pain mgmt patent we just saw). That's a positive dammit! So yep it's sales. Maybe the Q3 financials will already start reflecting the changes of the parntership, and maybe we'll get some sort of surprise milestone that's been hit with Q3 earnings release. Doubt it though. My eye-twitch that started a couple weeks ago watching Mannkind is likely to turn into full body convulsions as we keep going down. Good luck to all, and here's hoping that 2 years from now we're in a better spot. Noonen, as also mentioned previously by several, cash burn should be a lot less than 14m a year as you ref above as the bulk of the R&D expenses transfer to sanofi during 3rd or 4th Q 2014 so expenses more likely around 5 to 8m per month is my best guess... giving them an extra 5m per month on the above... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 13:24:07 GMT -5
Also remember there are a few more milestones coming up, namely one in november, and one for launch. Thats probably another 50-100M too.
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 12, 2014 19:01:17 GMT -5
Hello, I'm MnHoldem and I'm a MannKind-aholic... do I need intervention?
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Post by jonesma47 on Oct 13, 2014 1:32:04 GMT -5
I grok, Postaholic! Loved your observations as I too feel a victim of reading to many long on MNKD viewpoints... Bought at 6.24 and still holding on!  |
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Post by novafett on Oct 13, 2014 9:21:21 GMT -5
Still holding an a bit flabbergasted that i'm finally in a losing position. Down 4.73%. Just amazing. STILL holding. Have a wee bit more to put in if it drops back to the high $3's again.  |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 13, 2014 9:46:53 GMT -5
Still holding an a bit flabbergasted that i'm finally in a losing position. Down 4.73%. Just amazing. STILL holding. Have a wee bit more to put in if it drops back to the high $3's again. Not if it drops to the $3s...When. |
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Post by jpg on Oct 13, 2014 18:17:22 GMT -5
Still holding an a bit flabbergasted that i'm finally in a losing position. Down 4.73%. Just amazing. STILL holding. Have a wee bit more to put in if it drops back to the high $3's again. Not if it drops to the $3s...When. Hi Cybergym, You seem to be in possession of superior understanding of MNKD stock price or are the most pessimistic long I have ever met. If you are certain it will go down to the 3s you should sell quickly no? JPG |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2014 18:35:08 GMT -5
Not if it drops to the $3s...When. Hi Cybergym, You seem to be in possession of superior understanding of MNKD stock price or are the most pessimistic long I have ever met. If you are certain it will go down to the 3s you should sell quickly no? JPG The lower it goes the opportunity grows. |
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Post by BlueCat on Oct 13, 2014 18:54:29 GMT -5
The Q has developed "stock-holm" syndrome.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 13, 2014 18:59:03 GMT -5
I would call it "Stock Hold" Syndrome... Either way we all seem to be held hostage to our beliefs...
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