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Post by prcgorman2 on May 10, 2024 11:41:46 GMT -5
It is fair to say we all observe the same things but do not all come to the same conclusions for "why" the share price moves the way it does (or doesn't).
It is a natural human thing to create a story for what we observe even while admitting we don't have complete information to be a foundation for our beliefs. If anyone here believes they know, for a provable fact, why the share price and SIR behave the way they do, I invite them to provide the evidence and show us the math.
If you can't do that, it doesn't matter what you think is "reality" because what you think will be based on some amount of speculation.
agedhippie has explained very well (better than i can) why SIR is not a problematic factor in our share price stagnation. He's done that more than once and is likely not inclined to keep repeating himself. I think it makes some people feel better to have something like that (or naked shorts, manipulation, etc.) to blame for the stagnation. You get the last word. Or did you???
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Post by cretin11 on May 10, 2024 12:27:04 GMT -5
Well i thought so, but then you did! Oh wait...
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Post by BD on May 10, 2024 15:57:26 GMT -5
I know you are, but what am I?
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Post by Chris-C on May 10, 2024 17:00:33 GMT -5
As long as we are speculating, why not blame Raymond Reddington for the manipulation? His crime syndicate, originating from Russia, is capable of anything. And this explanation is so much more interesting than naked shorts or nefarious big Pharmas. Perhaps Zembe can use his new FBI connections to investigate?
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Post by cretin11 on May 10, 2024 17:48:55 GMT -5
I like it, let’s find some new bogeymen, the old favorites have gotten stale!
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Post by patience1 on May 11, 2024 10:00:16 GMT -5
I am sticking with follow the money conspiracy. Big Pharma does not want Afrezza to be a household name because too much money will be lost from not treating the side effects of out of control blood sugars. When you do your own research you tend to find the same people running the FDA jump back and forth between jobs at Big Pharma companies and jobs at the FDA. Until the FDA and Big Pharma is run by people who care more about the health of the Earths population than money Afrezza will be a slow growth product.
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Post by letitride on May 11, 2024 12:39:31 GMT -5
BP may have been holding Afrezza down but the ongoing trials may be much harder to cover up. Afrezzas time may be coming and at some point BP will want to step up and buy it. As for me Im good with $100 a share, thats now! Later my expectations will likely go higher. BP has not wanted to crush Afrezza because its a niche drug.
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Post by akemp3000 on May 12, 2024 8:01:58 GMT -5
BP may have been holding Afrezza down but the ongoing trials may be much harder to cover up. Afrezzas time may be coming and at some point BP will want to step up and buy it. As for me Im good with $100 a share, thats now! Later my expectations will likely go higher. BP has not wanted to crush Afrezza because its a niche drug. I agree. Multiple speakers at the forthcoming ADA adds to your point of being hard to cover up. While Afrezza has been a niche drug to date, the trial results being shared and pediatric approval will move Afrezza from being a niche to a threat to BP. One or several BPs will have no choice but to make a move. This has been a long time coming but now appears to be shifting from hopium to the most likely outcome, IMO.
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Post by cretin11 on May 12, 2024 19:18:59 GMT -5
“the most likely outcome” - that sounds promising. What should the timeline be for one or more BPs making a move (assuming our management does just a minimally adequate job with this)?
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 12, 2024 19:24:40 GMT -5
Curb your enthusiasm.
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Post by cretin11 on May 13, 2024 2:22:45 GMT -5
I wish I could but are you not enthused by a $100 share price?
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 13, 2024 7:33:11 GMT -5
Let’s look at $100 per share and assume the $17 paid for every dollar in earnings per share. It means MNKD was earning ~$6 per share multiplied by 270M shares which is $1.62B in profit and I’ll speculate about ~$2B in revenue. That’s if we only look at fundamentals and if we assume a hum-drum growth to that point and hum-drum potential past that point. Because if that happens relatively quickly with promise for continued growth, the P/E goes up and it takes less than $2B in revenue.
The posts that led to your sarcasm were referring, I think, to buyout (bidding war?) from BPs who would be enthusiastically trying to buy up future growth because of MannKind’s performance. I haven’t studied buyout premiums but I will speculate anything approaching or above 2x the share price is uncommon. This is kind of like P/E in that the buyer has to be confident of future performance and willing to pay above what the market at the moment is willing to pay.
Do I think MNKD share price can reach $100 and be a >$25B market capitalization? I used to back when I thought Afrezza was going to be a blockbuster. Afrezza is still the only ultra-rapid acting insulin (short of an I/V in a hospital) and doesn’t require needles (or refrigeration), so hope springs eternal, but the margins on mealtime insulin have fallen, so do I think any large BPs are salivating over buying MannKind at this point in time? No. What timeframe do I think will be MannKind’s time to be in the range we’re discussing? Given what is in the pipeline and what is selling and what is reasonable to hope for, I’ll guess more than 5 years.
See how easy it is to explore a discussion without mocking or sarcasm?
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Post by akemp3000 on May 13, 2024 8:46:30 GMT -5
I would expect a timeline that follows the trial data, pediatric approval and the standard of care being frequently discussed in the industry...hopefully by early 2026. If the trial results are as expected, a P/E multiple will be less of a consideration than what the other BPs are willing to pay. Two of the big three BPs can't sit idle by and watch the other run with this. This is when it could get interesting. As usual, plenty of ifs and just one opinion.
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Post by agedhippie on May 13, 2024 8:52:33 GMT -5
... I haven’t studied buyout premiums but I will speculate anything approaching or above 2x the share price is uncommon. This is kind of like P/E in that the buyer has to be confident of future performance and willing to pay above what the market at the moment is willing to pay. ... Afrezza is still the only ultra-rapid acting insulin (short of an I/V in a hospital) and doesn’t require needles (or refrigeration), so hope springs eternal, but the margins on mealtime insulin have fallen, so do I think any large BPs are salivating over buying MannKind at this point in time? No. ... You are correct in that it would be politically extremely hard for a company to pay over twice the closing price for established drugs. I would say around 60% premium would be a good result. The high buyout premiums go to a prospective drug in a key area (cancer typically) rather than a drug in production. TBH at this point drugs like 101 and 102 probably have more value than Afrezza (Tyvaso DPI will have a low multiple as it's a delivery mechanism rather than a drug.) The problem for Afrezza from a BP view is that it has been on the market for ten years so it's value can be quantified, and it's abysmal sales over that period mean the valuation will not be good. At this point the only option is for MNKD to retain Afrezza and work on building it's profile to improve coverage and acceptability in the medical community. Once that is accomplished it will be revalued. RAA is only refrigerated for long term storage the same as Afrezza. The RAA label specifically says don't refrigerate once you start using a pen. The distributors and pharmacy have to handle drugs in accordance with the label which for insulin means refrigerated shipping and handling which drives up the costs. From a customer POV it does mean that you get free next day shipping from mail order pharmacies without having to pay extra although you end up with a lifetime supply of ice blocks and poly boxes.
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Post by agedhippie on May 13, 2024 8:59:41 GMT -5
I would expect a timeline that follows the trial data, pediatric approval and the standard of care being frequently discussed in the industry...hopefully by early 2026. If the trial results are as expected, a P/E multiple will be less of a consideration than what the other BPs are willing to pay. Two of the big three BPs can't sit idle by and watch the other run with this. This is when it could get interesting. As usual, plenty of ifs and just one opinion. The three players here Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Sanofi. The first two will not want to cannibalize their RAA market which is a duopoly. The third is Sanofi... I don't really see a BP buyer outside of these three but I may be missing someone.
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