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Post by cretin11 on May 13, 2024 11:55:27 GMT -5
Good discussion, even with gorman pouring cold water on the dream of $100 share price any time in the near or intermediate future, and aged explaining why it's unlikely we will ever see a BP bidding war for Afrezza. Realism is preferable to hopium though not as much fun.
For buyout purposes, i agree with aged that a 60% premium would be a good result. And this gets to one problem having our share price being so stagnant for so long. For us to realize a $100/share buyout (which would be equivalent to $20/share before the reverse split), we need to be around $65 per share. However, with each earnings call that doesn't move the needle or gain any coverage momentum, we lessen those odds. If and when our performance and potential warrant real buyout considerations, that's when that 60% premium comes into play. If that were to happen today, we're looking at a buyout in the $7 range. If we can get to the oft-predicted $10 "Mendoza/MTOI Line" then our 60% premium fetches us $16 per share.
In my personal opinion, there is some factor apparently preventing MNKD from gaining respect from the market, despite developments that many of us here find encouraging. My hope is that factor will be changed/corrected/replaced before the time comes for us to entertain buyout discussions.
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Post by Chris-C on May 13, 2024 15:33:09 GMT -5
Good discussion, even with gorman pouring cold water on the dream of $100 share price any time in the near or intermediate future, and aged explaining why it's unlikely we will ever see a BP bidding war for Afrezza. Realism is preferable to hopium though not as much fun. For buyout purposes, i agree with aged that a 60% premium would be a good result. And this gets to one problem having our share price being so stagnant for so long. For us to realize a $100/share buyout (which would be equivalent to $20/share before the reverse split), we need to be around $65 per share. However, with each earnings call that doesn't move the needle or gain any coverage momentum, we lessen those odds. If and when our performance and potential warrant real buyout considerations, that's when that 60% premium comes into play. If that were to happen today, we're looking at a buyout in the $7 range. If we can get to the oft-predicted $10 "Mendoza/MTOI Line" then our 60% premium fetches us $16 per share. There is some factor apparently preventing MNKD from gaining respect from the market, despite developments that many of us here find encouraging. My hope is that factor will be changed/corrected/improved before the time comes for us to entertain buyout discussions. Good post Cretin. In my humble opinion, the major factor holding the SP down is historical underperformance and reputation. The ultra long history (10 years now) from Afrezza approval (preceded by the FDA'S ridiculous foot dragging which created huge delays and debt that led to the reverse split) almost buried the stock. Then, the catastrophic difference between the sales expectations and the actual results, combined with Sanofi's (Brandicourt's) gut punch and Al Mann's death, makes me wonder how it's possible that we are where we are today. I came close to selling all my shares when the SP dipped below $1.00. I debated about throwing good money after bad and missed a golden opportunity to buy more. But call it dumb luck or stupid denial, I'm feeling good about where things are now. Kudos to MC. It's anyone's guess why the best prandial insulin the world has ever known has such embarrassing sales after a decade, but the technology behind it is a potential goldmine. IMO.
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Post by BD on May 13, 2024 15:48:16 GMT -5
It's anyone's guess why the best prandial insulin the world has ever known has such embarrassing sales after a decade, but the technology behind it is a potential goldmine. IMO. And there we have the core biotech quandary of our time, eh? When we get a good answer to that, someone will have to write the book.
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Post by ktim on May 13, 2024 15:52:41 GMT -5
Deja vu all over again. Much of this is copy and past from posts years ago... isn't it?
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Post by akemp3000 on May 13, 2024 16:01:58 GMT -5
Seeing 373k shares traded after-hours mostly at $4.41. Thoughts?
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2024 16:05:18 GMT -5
It's anyone's guess why the best prandial insulin the world has ever known has such embarrassing sales after a decade, but the technology behind it is a potential goldmine. IMO. And there we have the core biotech quandary of our time, eh? When we get a good answer to that, someone will have to write the book. Chris, I didn’t want to believe it for the longest time but it has everything to do with coverage / remember the old Saying… it you don’t understand something look at the money behind it . I was of the belief people have the money for everything else/ dinners..travel… entertainment.. ECT why not something so important.. with that said ..general consensus are we over a thousand scripts 🤞
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 13, 2024 16:44:30 GMT -5
Good discussion, even with gorman pouring cold water on the dream of $100 share price any time in the near or intermediate future, and aged explaining why it's unlikely we will ever see a BP bidding war for Afrezza. Realism is preferable to hopium though not as much fun. For buyout purposes, i agree with aged that a 60% premium would be a good result. And this gets to one problem having our share price being so stagnant for so long. For us to realize a $100/share buyout (which would be equivalent to $20/share before the reverse split), we need to be around $65 per share. However, with each earnings call that doesn't move the needle or gain any coverage momentum, we lessen those odds. If and when our performance and potential warrant real buyout considerations, that's when that 60% premium comes into play. If that were to happen today, we're looking at a buyout in the $7 range. If we can get to the oft-predicted $10 "Mendoza/MTOI Line" then our 60% premium fetches us $16 per share. In my personal opinion, there is some factor apparently preventing MNKD from gaining respect from the market, despite developments that many of us here find encouraging. My hope is that factor will be changed/corrected/replaced before the time comes for us to entertain buyout discussions. I don't think "coverage momentum" is what will drive interest in a buyout. What drives a buyout is the opportunity to buy a Future Cash Flow (FCF) at a discount even if the discount is a 60% premium on the current share price. What might be a more interesting conversation is getting to $20/share. MannKind revenue this year will likely approach $270M coincidentally the same number of dollars as shares outstanding. I'm guessing that will yield about a 5 cent EPS meaning 95 percent of every dollar on $270M is used to operate the company ($257M). To get to $20/share with an EPS of 17, the math says MannKind will need to earn 118% of $270M in profit which is $318M. Add $318M to the $257M in operating costs and you get a total of $574M in revenue required to get to $20/share. That means MannKind needs to more than double revenues before we'll see $20/share. Per MannKind, the opportunity for Clofazimine to treat NTM is currently $100M per 10,000 patients and there are an estimated 141,000 patients in the US in 2024. If the nebulized version provides a more effective dose but with reduced or absent usual side-effects, it is reasonable to assume MannKind is going to get a chunk of that market. Treating 20% of a 141K population is worth $100M x 2.8 or $280M. Assuming sales of Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza remain essentially flat (which are bad assumptions), and MannKind's nebulized Clofazimine can manage 20% of the US market, the share price should approach $20 a share. I'll speculate that additional revenue could be accomplished by EOY 2027. I also assume any licensing or other revenue for sales in Japan or elsewhere abroad may lag FDA approval by a few years. I will guess the market would "price in" some portion of accomplishing the goal of 20% of US NTM market around the time the FDA approves the product (effectively inflating EPS at the time the premium is priced in). I don't remember when the additional indications for Tyvaso DPI may be providing a substantial increase in sales, but given Nintedanib could be in Phase 3 or waiting for approval and Afrezza may finally be providing substantially more revenue, 2027 could be a very interesting year for MNKD shareholders.
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2024 16:50:34 GMT -5
Prc / how do you achieve all the revenue goals you listed without the proper coverage/ the old cart before the horse.
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Post by letitride on May 13, 2024 17:23:16 GMT -5
$100 a share will not happen because everyone makes all the proper calculations and 1+1=2. It will come like an avalanche and you cant calculate the time. Glad you all are giving it a spin and trying it on for size.
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Post by ktim on May 13, 2024 19:15:51 GMT -5
Always fun to dream about winning the lottery.
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Post by agedhippie on May 13, 2024 19:18:40 GMT -5
It's anyone's guess why the best prandial insulin the world has ever known has such embarrassing sales after a decade, but the technology behind it is a potential goldmine. IMO. And there we have the core biotech quandary of our time, eh? When we get a good answer to that, someone will have to write the book. That's easy. Afrezza is non-inferior and people, including Sanofi, thought Type 1s would jump at the chance to stop taking shots. The reality was that for Type 1s modern needles and pens make it a non-event and the idea of changing was not seen as worth it (ten years previous to launch that may not have been the case.) From the endos standpoint they had an insulin that was equivalent to RAA, maybe slightly worse, whose sole virtue was that it was inhaled and having just seen an inhaled insulin flame out they were not interested. Basically there was not a market and that is why Sanofi bailed out. What could have changed that? Data. Sanofi was on the hook for some trials, which they did, but MNKD just stepped out. Nobody was willing to do the follow on trials to improve the label. Not Sanofi as financially it was problematic, and not MNKD because they saw that as Sanofi's job. The result was that you lost the one group who could have driven sales and forced insurance cover, the endos because MNKD/Sanofi was not giving them a reason to prescribe Afrezza other than, look no needles! At launch the FDA required three further trials; pediatrics, cancer incidence, and a variance trials. Only the variance trial was done. The FDA has not pressed on the cancer trial because the sales were so low, and ten years later we finally have the pediatrics trial. This is the sort of response which makes endos wary. Now with INHALE-3 we finally have the sort of trial that will get attention. The problem remains though that in the interval a view formed on Afrezza and that means the market has to be educated and be persuaded to take a look. There is indeed a book in this, just not the sort of one people usually want. It's a great case study of not understanding your market, and failing to compensate.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 13, 2024 20:44:20 GMT -5
And there we have the core biotech quandary of our time, eh? When we get a good answer to that, someone will have to write the book. That's easy. Afrezza is non-inferior and people, including Sanofi, thought Type 1s would jump at the chance to stop taking shots. The reality was that for Type 1s modern needles and pens make it a non-event and the idea of changing was not seen as worth it (ten years previous to launch that may not have been the case.) From the endos standpoint they had an insulin that was equivalent to RAA, maybe slightly worse, whose sole virtue was that it was inhaled and having just seen an inhaled insulin flame out they were not interested. Basically there was not a market and that is why Sanofi bailed out. What could have changed that? Data. Sanofi was on the hook for some trials, which they did, but MNKD just stepped out. Nobody was willing to do the follow on trials to improve the label. Not Sanofi as financially it was problematic, and not MNKD because they saw that as Sanofi's job. The result was that you lost the one group who could have driven sales and forced insurance cover, the endos because MNKD/Sanofi was not giving them a reason to prescribe Afrezza other than, look no needles! At launch the FDA required three further trials; pediatrics, cancer incidence, and a variance trials. Only the variance trial was done. The FDA has not pressed on the cancer trial because the sales were so low, and ten years later we finally have the pediatrics trial. This is the sort of response which makes endos wary. Now with INHALE-3 we finally have the sort of trial that will get attention. The problem remains though that in the interval a view formed on Afrezza and that means the market has to be educated and be persuaded to take a look. There is indeed a book in this, just not the sort of one people usually want. It's a great case study of not understanding your market, and failing to compensate. Oliver Brandicoot (sic) was the exec at Pfizer that ran the failed Exubera inhaled RAA insulin program. There was no way in Hell as the new CEO of Sanofi he would spend the money needed to do trials and properly market Afrezza as a non-RAA ultra-rapid acting mealtime insulin. He stopped the program cold as soon as he joined Sanofi thereby saving $750M in milestones and royalties and devastating MannKind into the bargain. My feeling is the biggest failure of that was the worldwide marketing agreement contract. There should have been more compensation in the case of a divorce. Even so, MannKind was designed from the ground up to be a pipeline company, not a drug marketing company. It was just a whole bunch of suck.
One of the reasons I bothered to write the speculation on how MannKind may see $20/share in less than 5 years was to point out that there is a lot more to hope for from the PIPELINE and that we don't need to obsess about Afrezza or V-Go.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 13, 2024 20:52:00 GMT -5
Prc / how do you achieve all the revenue goals you listed without the proper coverage/ the old cart before the horse. MannKind management has said they're working to accomplish the goals without dilution or debt using operating capital alone.
If you don't need Wall Street bankers, you don't need "proper coverage" from investment banking analysts.
MannKind has been trying to sell Afrezza and V-Go to a population of 30M+ persons with diabetes (with limited success, but enough to keep the wolves away until they landed the Tyvaso DPI gig).
I assume MannKind can bring Clofazimine DPI through approval and can handle selling Clofazimine DPI to the PCPs of the 100K+ NTM sufferers. If not, it will be time to partner.
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Post by wyattdog on May 13, 2024 22:14:54 GMT -5
First, we paid off the mid-cap senior secured debt which freed us of the encumbrances on our assets and discharged the associated debt covenants while eliminating our higher-cost debt, which had an interest rate of 40%. We then extinguished the convertible debt without man's trust by converting part of the debt into 1.5 million shares to the contractual conversion rate and paid cash for the remaining outstanding debt. By paying cash, we reduced expected dilution by over two million shares that were backing the convertible debt. We also believe that the per-share price paid in cash of $4.31 was a bargain for the company as we see a price on our stock in this range is severely undervalued.
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2024 23:46:34 GMT -5
Prc / how do you achieve all the revenue goals you listed without the proper coverage/ the old cart before the horse. MannKind management has said they're working to accomplish the goals without dilution or debt using operating capital alone.
If you don't need Wall Street bankers, you don't need "proper coverage" from investment banking analysts.
MannKind has been trying to sell Afrezza and V-Go to a population of 30M+ persons with diabetes (with limited success, but enough to keep the wolves away until they landed the Tyvaso DPI gig).
I assume MannKind can bring Clofazimine DPI through approval and can handle selling Clofazimine DPI to the PCPs of the 100K+ NTM sufferers. If not, it will be time to partner.
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