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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 9, 2024 15:34:08 GMT -5
It's quite possible Mike knows that now is not yet the time to roll the dice, go nuclear or whatever you want to call it. He could be biding time waiting on the head-to-head trial results and pediatric approval knowing that will be the time to go all in, either alone or with a partner. Thankfully, he doesn't follow advice from Monday morning quarterbacks on social media  BTW, the last comment is not directed at anyone in particular. Just a random thought. Yes thank God for that, with all the back-and-forth ..not on this thread, going on about what he should do, it would be nuts, and he does read this board every few months. I’m going with now is not the time to roll the dice:-) If not now when we have the money, then when? When is the right time to disrupt? Disrupting this market will take at least 2 years. We can leverage the Cipla results and pump/switch to get things rolling. We can immediately impact Medicare adoption. Then, when the kids get approved afrezza there is no pricing barrier to adoption. After that we have no more trials. Mike saw how the $35 Medicare price increased scripts even when it required pre auths. Maybe the word was Mike was "shocked". I use to think afrezza was so good it will eventually succeed. I totally underestimated BPs control of the market and that they will do whatever so this $100B market does not get disrupted. I actually thought BP would allow afrezza. They won't. They will allow 1k scripts a week, maybe a few more but not much as long as we keep doing the same thing. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 9, 2024 15:50:02 GMT -5
Mike is not selling Afrezza. You can get on here and pump yourself up and make up a bunch of BS for your friends on StockTwits. Does that make you feel like a big guy? What is your agenda? Sounds like you’re the one with the horse and buggy problem living in the past. The future may just be brighter than you think. This is supposed to be the optimistic thread remember🤣 Update, your alter ego just posted a long post on StockTwits with not one ounce of truth in it. Sports - I think at this point no one is offering to buy afrezza at a reasonable price knowing $3.5B has been invested. If someone offered $10B I think Mike would take that to the Board. At this point BP is allowing about 1k scripts a week. No one wants to pay $1 for afrezza if they can't juice that number 100X. That is not going to happen no matter how great afrezza is and how great our trial results are if we can not get insurance and Medicare coverage. Right now BP allowed "inhaled insulin" in the 2024 SoC as long as it was put in parenthesis regardless of what the trial results say. Could afrezza be doing 100k or even 1M scripts a week, you bet but that would really disrupt this market. However, if it was doing 1M scripts I think we would have many offers bigger than $10B. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 9, 2024 16:07:50 GMT -5
That’s right:-)
Right now we’re working on partnering with someone that owns most of the nursing homes in New Mexico … that would be huge for Vdex. And for the nursing homes patients, which is very close to my heart because my mom was T2 and in one and the way she got treated and fed was horrible.
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 9, 2024 16:18:27 GMT -5
Mike is not selling Afrezza. You can get on here and pump yourself up and make up a bunch of BS for your friends on StockTwits. Does that make you feel like a big guy? What is your agenda? Sounds like you’re the one with the horse and buggy problem living in the past. The future may just be brighter than you think. This is supposed to be the optimistic thread remember🤣 Update, your alter ego just posted a long post on StockTwits with not one ounce of truth in it. Sports - I think at this point no one is offering to buy afrezza at a reasonable price knowing $3.5B has been invested. If someone offered $10B I think Mike would take that to the Board. sayhey, of course he would. If somebody offered $500 million he would take that to the Board too, it would have to be discussed. Moot point however, at least for now. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 9, 2024 20:09:20 GMT -5
That’s right:-) Right now we’re working on partnering with someone that owns most of the nursing homes in New Mexico … that would be huge for Vdex. And for the nursing homes patients, which is very close to my heart because my mom was T2 and in one and the way she got treated and fed was horrible. Thats really great news. I think you just made some news here! Now the problem is all those Medicare patients are going to need to get pre auths and get denied and re-apply and maybe after the 3rd time they get approval. Could you image if things are simple - $35 for everyone. With Medicare once they have the afrezza they get the near free CGM. I know Robert Ford would really like that but also knows afrezza is not getting broad insurance coverage anytime soon. With Board approval, Mike could change that tomorrow. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 9, 2024 20:36:53 GMT -5
Sports - I think at this point no one is offering to buy afrezza at a reasonable price knowing $3.5B has been invested. If someone offered $10B I think Mike would take that to the Board. sayhey, of course he would. If somebody offered $500 million he would take that to the Board too, it would have to be discussed. Moot point however, at least for now. He would take $500M to the Board but its probably DOA. It would be like the guy at the ASM years ago offering the buy-out from the Chinese company. Believe it or not there is a true desire to return value on the $3.5B investment. There is also a true belief afrezza is really that good and really could and should turn the diabetes industry on its head. I will tell you a secret - afrezza really is that good and really can blow up the industry. The problem to date was how to survive, collect the scraps and not piss off BP. For example, announcing an afrezza/GLP1 trial last year would probably have pissed off BP right when Mounjarno was coming out. Heck, Dave Kendall after getting the easiest job in his life, disappeared in the middle of the night after showing those great afrezza study results while he had plans for more. Boom, gone, right before the Mounjaro announcements. Is there a connection, IDK but I have my tin foil hat on today from the Fauci testimony waiting to hear it publicly explained why he was the highest paid government employee, hmmm... hazard pay. More great news about afrezza right before Mounjarno was not going to happen. |
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Optimism
Jan 9, 2024 20:54:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Jan 9, 2024 20:54:21 GMT -5
Why is it a secret?
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Optimism
Jan 9, 2024 21:01:04 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Jan 9, 2024 21:01:04 GMT -5
And a bona fide $500M offer for Afrezza would not be at all like the random $500M “offer” to buy the company those years ago. Not saying it would be accepted for sure, but things are very different for MNKD now.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 10, 2024 7:44:21 GMT -5
And a bona fide $500M offer for Afrezza would not be at all like the random $500M “offer” to buy the company those years ago. Not saying it would be accepted for sure, but things are very different for MNKD now. Yes, things are very different. MNKD has $300M in the bank and Tyvaso DPI is paying the bills. We are also no longer delusional that the diabetes industry is going to welcome with open arms the greatest advance in diabetes care as it would totally disrupt their $100B market. The pressure is off MNKD. Tyvaso DPI is paying the factory costs and Mikes has money to pay the bills and to invest. Results from key trials will be available soon. We have also seen first hand the power of pricing with Medicare at $35. We also have "inhaled insulin" in the SoC now - in parenthesis. Assuming we have learned something from all this and better understand the game why would anyone take $500M now? There is a serious opportunity to finally disrupt this market. At the same time even VDex is now making some progress. BPs last big hope is blocking insurance coverage on afrezza and keeping it at $1k a box. |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 10, 2024 10:18:30 GMT -5
The reason to take such a deal would be to exchange a struggling business unit for a cash infusion, if we think that amount of cash could be better deployed in other ways for future profitability and returns to MNKD shareholders. As for VDEX, they would be fine, maybe better off, as long as whoever bought Afrezza were serious about it. Such a buyer might be able to break down the barriers better than MNKD has, thus helping VDEX get Afrezza into the lungs of PWDs.
But again this is all hypothetical conjecture, I’m not advocating for or against it and it’s moot anyway as nobody’s offering to buy Afrezza. My initial point was that your $10B hypothetical sale price was outlandishly high, in reality a much smaller offer would have to be “brought to the board” as you put it. My belief is that Afrezza will stay ours, we have to hope we figure out what to do with it. I don’t think your $35 idea will pan out, but I like your creativity and desire for us to be disruptive (in a good way).
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 10, 2024 10:53:10 GMT -5
And a bona fide $500M offer for Afrezza would not be at all like the random $500M “offer” to buy the company those years ago. Not saying it would be accepted for sure, but things are very different for MNKD now. Yes, things are very different. MNKD has $300M in the bank and Tyvaso DPI is paying the bills. We are also no longer delusional that the diabetes industry is going to welcome with open arms the greatest advance in diabetes care as it would totally disrupt their $100B market. The pressure is off MNKD. Tyvaso DPI is paying the factory costs and Mikes has money to pay the bills and to invest. Results from key trials will be available soon. We have also seen first hand the power of pricing with Medicare at $35. We also have "inhaled insulin" in the SoC now - in parenthesis. Assuming we have learned something from all this and better understand the game why would anyone take $500M now? There is a serious opportunity to finally disrupt this market. At the same time even VDex is now making some progress. BPs last big hope is blocking insurance coverage on afrezza and keeping it at $1k a box. I used to be suspicious there was a conspiracy afoot to quash MNKD because of Afrezza. That was about 8 years ago.
The occasional (constant?) apparent share price manipulation does not help to dispel those suspicions, but whilst I am not a trusting person by nature, I've become resigned that MNKD isn't THE target but intead A target of the kinds of chicanery which infest the stock market.
I now assume the very high short interest on MNKD may contain a component of folks who are motivated to hold MannKind back because of Afrezza, but that the SIR is more likely composed of two main factions: common shorts (e.g., hedge funds, some of whom are no doubt thieves) and in particular the consortium of institutional investors which hold the $230M in convertible bonds.
My general sense is big pharma could not care less about MNKD or Afrezza. Why would they? Afrezza has not been a threat since late 2015 when Sanofi reneged on their world-wide marketing agreement with MannKind. Even now, with all that's been done to improve the financial footing of MannKind, and the promotion of Afrezza via trials, I assume big pharma barely notices. I assume they will wait to put a plan in place to protect their insulin, et al, revenues from Afrezza IF and WHEN Afrezza presents a credible threat (a few years from now?). It remains to be seen if that will ever happen. Ironically, the very best prandial insulin product on the face of the earth is NOT "the best selling drug of all time", at least yet, and maybe never will be. (Goodness, that hurt to write.) It's still very much an uphill battle.
MNKD is proving to be "The little engine that could", so that's good, but the ~$300M in the bank is mostly spoken for by debt covenants and operational requirements. It's not just a fat pile of cash, like what Apple has, to go and disrupt the market (not that Apple is a market disrupter anymore since Steve Jobs passed away).
All of that said, I still like to read sayhey24's "optimism". I enjoy the out-of-the-box cast-the-net-wide thoughts. If MannKind's plans to become handsomely profitable based on increasing revenue sources where first up is Tyvaso DPI with expanded indication, and next up is nebulized Clofazimine, then the disposable cash needed for at-scale trial(s) of Afrezza, DTC marketing, PBM discounts, et cetera, may become a reality. The weekly prescriptions and the rate of growth of weekly prescriptions is so low, we can hope we'll easily see a clear indicator in the amount and rate of growth of "moving the needle" with a successful completion of the Peds trials, new label, persuasive presentations at ADA, et cetera. If that can be accomplished, maybe then big pharma will take note, but not before then, and maybe not even then. They may be complacent and get surprised. That would be lovely.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 10, 2024 11:25:28 GMT -5
The reason to take such a deal would be to exchange a struggling business unit for a cash infusion, if we think that amount of cash could be better deployed in other ways for future profitability and returns to MNKD shareholders. As for VDEX, they would be fine, maybe better off, as long as whoever bought Afrezza were serious about it. Such a buyer might be able to break down the barriers better than MNKD has, thus helping VDEX get Afrezza into the lungs of PWDs. But again this is all hypothetical conjecture, I’m not advocating for or against it and it’s moot anyway as nobody’s offering to buy Afrezza. My initial point was that your $10B hypothetical sale price was outlandishly high, in reality a much smaller offer would have to be “brought to the board” as you put it. My belief is that Afrezza will stay ours, we have to hope we figure out what to do with it. I don’t think your $35 idea will pan out, but I like your creativity and desire for us to be disruptive (in a good way). This is not a hypothetical, this is real life. As far back as I can remember. BP has done everything to stop afrezza. Based on Al Mann's estimates afrezza should be selling greater than $10B yearly right now. That is the reason $3.5B has been invested in it and you suggest we sell it for $500M. The question at hand is why is it not selling at $10B or more? This is a Harvard business case. Every BP was rushing to develop inhaled insulin. Pfizer had something which was not very good. Al Mann develops something which not only works but mimics natural pancreatic release. Everyone stops inhaled insulin development because no one can make anything better than afrezza. They shift work to SGLT2 and GLP1s and see $Billions in profits. The the rest is history and they do everything to block afrezza and protect SGLT2 and GLP1 sales. The last blockade is to prevent insurance coverage. The trial data which should have done years ago are now coming to closure. Mike just needs to decide if he wants to take on the last blockade. I have proposed one option - simple $35 pricing for everyone. No coupons, no discounts, no PBMs just sell direct and announce it to the world. $35 works for Medicare even with pre auths. I am sure Mark Cuban would be more than willing to partner and sell $35 afrezza on CostPlusDrugs.com |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 10, 2024 11:28:41 GMT -5
Yes, things are very different. MNKD has $300M in the bank and Tyvaso DPI is paying the bills. We are also no longer delusional that the diabetes industry is going to welcome with open arms the greatest advance in diabetes care as it would totally disrupt their $100B market. The pressure is off MNKD. Tyvaso DPI is paying the factory costs and Mikes has money to pay the bills and to invest. Results from key trials will be available soon. We have also seen first hand the power of pricing with Medicare at $35. We also have "inhaled insulin" in the SoC now - in parenthesis. Assuming we have learned something from all this and better understand the game why would anyone take $500M now? There is a serious opportunity to finally disrupt this market. At the same time even VDex is now making some progress. BPs last big hope is blocking insurance coverage on afrezza and keeping it at $1k a box. I used to be suspicious there was a conspiracy afoot to quash MNKD because of Afrezza. That was about 8 years ago.
The occasional (constant?) apparent share price manipulation does not help to dispel those suspicions, but whilst I am not a trusting person by nature, I've become resigned that MNKD isn't THE target but intead A target of the kinds of chicanery which infest the stock market.
I now assume the very high short interest on MNKD may contain a component of folks who are motivated to hold MannKind back because of Afrezza, but that the SIR is more likely composed of two main factions: common shorts (e.g., hedge funds, some of whom are no doubt thieves) and in particular the consortium of institutional investors which hold the $230M in convertible bonds.
My general sense is big pharma could not care less about MNKD or Afrezza. Why would they? Afrezza has not been a threat since late 2015 when Sanofi reneged on their world-wide marketing agreement with MannKind. Even now, with all that's been done to improve the financial footing of MannKind, and the promotion of Afrezza via trials, I assume big pharma barely notices. I assume they will wait to put a plan in place to protect their insulin, et al, revenues from Afrezza IF and WHEN Afrezza presents a credible threat (a few years from now?). It remains to be seen if that will ever happen. Ironically, the very best prandial insulin product on the face of the earth is NOT "the best selling drug of all time", at least yet, and maybe never will be. (Goodness, that hurt to write.) It's still very much an uphill battle.
MNKD is proving to be "The little engine that could", so that's good, but the ~$300M in the bank is mostly spoken for by debt covenants and operational requirements. It's not just a fat pile of cash, like what Apple has, to go and disrupt the market (not that Apple is a market disrupter anymore since Steve Jobs passed away).
All of that said, I still like to read sayhey24's "optimism". I enjoy the out-of-the-box cast-the-net-wide thoughts. If MannKind's plans to become handsomely profitable based on increasing revenue sources where first up is Tyvaso DPI with expanded indication, and next up is nebulized Clofazimine, then the disposable cash needed for at-scale trial(s) of Afrezza, DTC marketing, PBM discounts, et cetera, may become a reality. The weekly prescriptions and the rate of growth of weekly prescriptions is so low, we can hope we'll easily see a clear indicator in the amount and rate of growth of "moving the needle" with a successful completion of the Peds trials, new label, persuasive presentations at ADA, et cetera. If that can be accomplished, maybe then big pharma will take note, but not before then, and maybe not even then. They may be complacent and get surprised. That would be lovely.
The answer to your question - My general sense is big pharma could not care less about MNKD or Afrezza. Why would they? Because afrezza is that good and CGMs show that. Its really hard hiding from the CGM numbers. Right now with the SGLT2, GLP1s and other antiglycemics there is a $100B market. Is disrupting $100B market a good enough reason to stop afrezza? I say yes. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 10, 2024 11:30:31 GMT -5
You're right, and yet, I still think they don't care (but maybe later they will).
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limo
Researcher
Posts: 82
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Post by limo on Jan 10, 2024 11:54:28 GMT -5
You're right, and yet, I still think they don't care (but maybe later they will). NOVO's are making roughly $8bn per qtr from GLP-1s alone, and growing...rapidly. They currently treat 1m patients out of a patient population of 100mn in the US and 700mn globally. So i think if they had any concerns they'd just buy MNKD for whatever premium required. |
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BTW, the last comment is not directed at anyone in particular. Just a random thought.
