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Post by awesomo on Jan 2, 2024 14:40:51 GMT -5
Happy New Year! A new year of whining about good news not being good enough and bad news spelling imminent disaster and in all cases management not doing a good enough job. SSDD Re-read my first comment about how I hope they say something of material, somehow you still find things wrong with it. That's the only SSDD around here. |
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 2, 2024 14:44:27 GMT -5
It won't cost much to hold a conference call. If they didn't, then I'm sure I would be reading complaints about lack of transparency. Can't please everybody I guess. If they just regurgitate what is on the PR, then it is a waste of time and reflects even worse than if they didn't hold one at all. Half full and half empty. We all have our own take. To me, the call isn't for retail investors. But, I do think they'll provide some notion as to what they're planning on doing with the funds going forward. If you had the choice, what would be the most important objective to accomplish with these funds? I believe eliminating debt and cleaning up the balance sheet goes a long way with their overall fiscal strategic plan. Cash on hand also is attractive to investors. Crap shoot honestly. |
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Post by celo on Jan 2, 2024 15:17:46 GMT -5
MNKD has had a lack of clarity in the past.
A call with why so much money was raised on 1 percent sold is worth talking about.
Also, what plans they have with the money in the future.
I'm glad they will have a call. They do not talk enough about their future to their detriment.
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Post by hopingandwilling on Jan 2, 2024 15:20:20 GMT -5
Is MANNKIND now into 'payday loans?'. They just gave up 10% of their revenue stream when loan rates are now declining. Granted, the stock has rallied, but the massive volume welcomes those who short the stock, and it currently reflects those who shorted at the top of the trading are sitting on a 6-10% profit. Maybe 2024 will be the charm year for MNKD--the wait has been long and arduous. For those long--one can hope the recent pattern being up and then slammed back to the $3.00 level, doesn't happen. Good luck to those holding!
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Post by radgray68 on Jan 2, 2024 15:20:30 GMT -5
I’d vote for paying off MidCap and securing $10 million for the next P1-2 trial on TGF-beta.
THEN: Announce a $100 Million share buyback program.
That’ll shore up the price and be justified, seeing as how our revenue stream was just valued at around $2 billion.
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Post by uvula on Jan 2, 2024 15:23:09 GMT -5
As of right now we are up .25/share after selling 1% of royalty.
Would it be totally wacko to make the assumption that 100% of the royalty would be worth $25/share? I'm sure this is an overly simplistic way of valuing the company, but is there any way to value the company based on today's news?
Update: As others have pointed out, I screwed up by a factor of 10.
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Post by peppy on Jan 2, 2024 15:30:31 GMT -5
Hopefully they will pay off the Midcap loan early even though it has a 1% early termination fee, it is just to toxic. "The MidCap credit facility, as amended, contains customary affirmative covenants and customary negative covenants limiting the Company’s ability and the ability of the Company’s subsidiaries to, among other things, dispose of assets, undergo a change in control, merge or consolidate, make acquisitions, incur debt, incur liens, pay dividends, repurchase stock and make investments, in each case subject to certain exceptions. The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments. As of September 30, 2023, the Company was in compliance with the financial covenant." Should be ~33.2 mil to pay off. " Cash, cash equivalents and investments as of September 30, 2023 were $144.3 million." So currently $294.3 mil if we are breaking even. So $261.3 after it is paid off. Senior notes are not able to be paid off at this time. And still 2 years(2026) till MNKD can buy back the factory. Paying off Midcap will free up the 90 mil finical covenant as well as having to get MidCap to agree to acquisitions, stock repurchase, etc.
So what is MNKD wanting to buy? Thank you Anderson and radgray68 |
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Post by alethea on Jan 2, 2024 16:30:51 GMT -5
Interesting, wouldn't think this would need its own conference call/presentation. I guess we can all hope there is something of material that they will share. Do you mean MORE material than what they have already announced? That would be very nice indeed. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 2, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -5
As of right now we are up .25/share after selling 1% of royalty. Would it be totally wacko to make the assumption that 100% of the royalty would be worth $25/share? I'm sure this is an overly simplistic way of valuing the company, but is there any way to value the company based on today's news? I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard.
So if we assume 1% (of 11%) is worth .25 cents a share, than selling all of the rights to the royalty would be 11 x .25/share or $2.75.
Considering selling all of the royalties would mean Sagard would turn over ~$2.2B in cash, the market capitalization of MNKD would theoretically change from ~$1.06B to ~$3.26B (give or take), and the share price would be approximately 3 x $3.64 (previous close) or $10.92 (and MTOI's prediction would come true!). Reality is much more complicated of course.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 2, 2024 17:21:03 GMT -5
I would love to see the MidCap loan paid off. Binder said during the last quarterly earnings report he plans to pay it off using operating capital over an undefined number of future quarters between last quarter and the due date (at the end of 2025?).
Does anybody know if the $230M convertible bonds can be retired early? Or whether the bonds can be retired early via a combination of cash and shares (dilution)? I assume the answer is retired early for cash, or retired at maturity (Dec 2026) for some combination of cash and shares. The idea of a virtually debt-free (and minor diluted) MannKind appeals to me, but I'm not sure that is a goal or whether it should even be a goal.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 2, 2024 17:26:03 GMT -5
As of right now we are up .25/share after selling 1% of royalty. Would it be totally wacko to make the assumption that 100% of the royalty would be worth $25/share? I'm sure this is an overly simplistic way of valuing the company, but is there any way to value the company based on today's news? I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard. ... I think you are out by a factor of 10  The 1% is based on UTHR's sales, not MNKD royalties. From the contract; “ Net Sales” has the meaning set forth in Section 1.71 of the License Agreement." If you look at section 1.71 of the Mannkind/UTHR license you see; "“ Net Sales” shall mean the net sales recorded by United Therapeutics or its Affiliates or sublicensees for the sale or disposition of Product to Third Parties (other than sublicensees) in bona fide arm’s length transactions, as determined in accordance with GAAP and as reported in United Therapeutics’ audited financial statements." (plus a list of deductions UTHR is allowed to make.) In other words MNKD sold about 10% of their royalty revenue stream, not 1%. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 2, 2024 17:32:55 GMT -5
I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard. ... I think you are out by a factor of 10 The 1% is based on UTHR's sales, not MNKD royalties. From the contract; “ Net Sales” has the meaning set forth in Section 1.71 of the License Agreement." If you look at section 1.71 of the Mannkind/UTHR license you see; "“ Net Sales” shall mean the net sales recorded by United Therapeutics or its Affiliates or sublicensees for the sale or disposition of Product to Third Parties (other than sublicensees) in bona fide arm’s length transactions, as determined in accordance with GAAP and as reported in United Therapeutics’ audited financial statements." (plus a list of deductions UTHR is allowed to make.) In other words MNKD sold about 10% of their royalty revenue stream, not 1%. 1% of 10% is 10%. "MNKD) announced that on December 27, 2023 it sold a 1% royalty in net sales of Tyvaso DPI® (treprostinil) inhalation powder in exchange for up to $200 million, including the purchase price of $150 million and an additional potential milestone payment of up to $50 million." "Pursuant to a license agreement with United Therapeutics, MannKind is entitled to a 10% royalty on net sales of Tyvaso DPI, subject to certain reductions." investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-and-sagard-healthcare-enter-royalty-purchase-agreement?_ga=2.155195448.223883343.1704220543-1360695594.1704220543&_gl=1*1l3ivc8*_ga*MTM2MDY5NTU5NC4xNzA0MjIwNTQz*_ga_4PG70PBDQW*MTcwNDIzNDYyNy4yLjEuMTcwNDIzNDYzNS41Mi4wLjA. |
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Post by ryster505 on Jan 2, 2024 17:34:48 GMT -5
I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard. ... I think you are out by a factor of 10 The 1% is based on UTHR's sales, not MNKD royalties. From the contract; “ Net Sales” has the meaning set forth in Section 1.71 of the License Agreement." If you look at section 1.71 of the Mannkind/UTHR license you see; "“ Net Sales” shall mean the net sales recorded by United Therapeutics or its Affiliates or sublicensees for the sale or disposition of Product to Third Parties (other than sublicensees) in bona fide arm’s length transactions, as determined in accordance with GAAP and as reported in United Therapeutics’ audited financial statements." (plus a list of deductions UTHR is allowed to make.) In other words MNKD sold about 10% of their royalty revenue stream, not 1%. What is your overall view of this move aged? |
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Post by uvula on Jan 2, 2024 17:40:26 GMT -5
I was using doctor math.
(A reduction in a1c from 7% to 6% is a reduction of 1%.)
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 2, 2024 17:48:47 GMT -5
I think you are out by a factor of 10 The 1% is based on UTHR's sales, not MNKD royalties. From the contract; “ Net Sales” has the meaning set forth in Section 1.71 of the License Agreement." If you look at section 1.71 of the Mannkind/UTHR license you see; "“ Net Sales” shall mean the net sales recorded by United Therapeutics or its Affiliates or sublicensees for the sale or disposition of Product to Third Parties (other than sublicensees) in bona fide arm’s length transactions, as determined in accordance with GAAP and as reported in United Therapeutics’ audited financial statements." (plus a list of deductions UTHR is allowed to make.) In other words MNKD sold about 10% of their royalty revenue stream, not 1%. What is your overall view of this move aged? It entirely depends on what they intend to do with the money, which I assume is what the call will be about. MNKD is buying 10% of their expected lifetime revenue now which makes sense if they can invest it and earn more than they would have gained by simply taking the royalties. It also hedges the royalty risk. |
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