rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Jan 2, 2024 18:14:09 GMT -5
I was using doctor math. (A reduction in a1c from 7% to 6% is a reduction of 1%.) So the best way to state that is a 100 basis point improvement, the percentage is 1/7 or 15% improvement…that avoids confusion whether you mean 1% or 10%. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 2, 2024 18:28:14 GMT -5
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 2, 2024 18:30:11 GMT -5
I was using doctor math. (A reduction in a1c from 7% to 6% is a reduction of 1%.) So the best way to state that is a 100 basis point improvement, the percentage is 1/7 or 15% improvement…that avoids confusion whether you mean 1% or 10%. It may be a 15% improvement but its a 1% reduction in the percentage of hemoglobin A in your blood that has glucose attached. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 2, 2024 18:36:45 GMT -5
This should be interesting. I think Aged said it best - it entirely depends on what they intend to do with the money. Right now I am thinking its the best thing Mike has done since he answered Martine's phone call. I think Mike wanted to do some new trials but was concerned about the money. Now he has it and the money to cover the debt payment. If he buys another V-Go, I will not be happy. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 2, 2024 18:50:06 GMT -5
This should be interesting. I think Aged said it best - it entirely depends on what they intend to do with the money. Right now I am thinking its the best thing Mike has done since he answered Martine's phone call. I think Mike wanted to do some new trials but was concerned about the money. Now he has it and the money to cover the debt payment. If he buys another V-Go, I will not be happy. So far the opposite of the Christmas Massacre. Here is a pipe dream for you... Regeneron is making new all time highs. schrts.co/PZbjAYBSThey are huge into monoclonal antibodies for all disease. www.regeneron.com/pipeline-medicines/investigational-pipeline ITEPEKIMAB In collaboration with Sanof is in phase 3 for COPD targeting IL-33. How MNKD is in my thinking. I would really like to see MNKD load mono-clonal antibodies. "Proteins, peptides, mAbs, vaccines, small molecules Anionic, cationic Hydrophobic, hydrophilic" web.archive.org/web/20160325132852/http://www.mannkindcorp.com/Collateral/Documents/English-US/101LR-TechnosphereTechTeaser-01.19.11.pdf page 2 |
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Post by awesomo on Jan 2, 2024 18:50:22 GMT -5
As of right now we are up .25/share after selling 1% of royalty. Would it be totally wacko to make the assumption that 100% of the royalty would be worth $25/share? I'm sure this is an overly simplistic way of valuing the company, but is there any way to value the company based on today's news? I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard.
So if we assume 1% (of 11%) is worth .25 cents a share, than selling all of the rights to the royalty would be 11 x .25/share or $2.75.
Considering selling all of the royalties would mean Sagard would turn over ~$2.2B in cash, the market capitalization of MNKD would theoretically change from ~$1.06B to ~$3.26B (give or take), and the share price would be approximately 3 x $3.64 (previous close) or $10.92 (and MTOI's prediction would come true!). Reality is much more complicated of course.
If MannKind sold off their royalty stream from UTHR, there's no way the market cap would still be $1B. Most of that $1B valuation is because of UTHR royalties. It's not additive at all. Also the market cap is way more detailed than just cash. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 2, 2024 18:58:22 GMT -5
Hopefully we'll hear why they decided to raise these funds. If MC lists several reasons and one is having more funds on hand if the company decides on some type of acquisition, then one is likely already in the works and would probably be announced shortly. Once again, it wouldn't be a big deal in the short term. MC likes the small deals.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 2, 2024 19:07:45 GMT -5
I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard.
So if we assume 1% (of 11%) is worth .25 cents a share, than selling all of the rights to the royalty would be 11 x .25/share or $2.75.
Considering selling all of the royalties would mean Sagard would turn over ~$2.2B in cash, the market capitalization of MNKD would theoretically change from ~$1.06B to ~$3.26B (give or take), and the share price would be approximately 3 x $3.64 (previous close) or $10.92 (and MTOI's prediction would come true!). Reality is much more complicated of course.
If MannKind sold off their royalty stream from UTHR, there's no way the market cap would still be $1B. Most of that $1B valuation is because of UTHR royalties. It's not additive at all. Also the market cap is way more detailed than just cash. but, they would have the $2.2B in cash. MNKD's valuation has always been a mess. On one hand they are sitting on the greatest advance in diabetes care in 100 years. At the same time they now have Tyvaso DPI paying the bills and will continue to pay the bills. Which one is the $1B based on? Until today I am not sure the market gave Tyvaso DPI royalties the respect they should have. So now they are sitting on afrezza and the India results should be in soon If we see the 1.5 to 2.0% A1c reduction then what? Does Mike get aggresive? Mike now has the cash to slash the price of afrezza and flood the market and remove all insurance barriers while at the same time getting SoC and label changes made. |
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Post by awesomo on Jan 2, 2024 19:11:12 GMT -5
If MannKind sold off their royalty stream from UTHR, there's no way the market cap would still be $1B. Most of that $1B valuation is because of UTHR royalties. It's not additive at all. Also the market cap is way more detailed than just cash. but, they would have the $2.2B in cash. MNKD's valuation has always been a mess. On one hand they are sitting on the greatest advance in diabetes care in 100 years. At the same time they now have Tyvaso DPI paying the bills and will continue to pay the bills. Which one is the $1B based on? Until today I am not sure the market gave Tyvaso DPI royalties the respect they should have. So now they are sitting on afrezza and the India results should be in soon If we see the 1.5 to 2.0% A1c reduction then what? Does Mike get aggresive? Mike now has the cash to slash the price of afrezza and flood the market and remove all insurance barriers while at the same time getting SoC and label changes made. Cash has no return on investment if you're just burning through it to support your other revenue streams and operations. |
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Post by mymann on Jan 2, 2024 19:35:30 GMT -5
Woo hoo! $4.01 Well, let's see how long that lasts. WTF? Can't even hold $4/share on a decent news. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 2, 2024 20:10:19 GMT -5
Woo hoo! $4.01 Well, let's see how long that lasts. WTF? Can't even hold $4/share on a decent news. It's up 7% on a cash raise, what more do you want? If Mike can articulate what he needed the money for then I think it will go over $4 and last. |
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Post by daisyz on Jan 2, 2024 20:11:29 GMT -5
Woo hoo! $4.01 Well, let's see how long that lasts. WTF? Can't even hold $4/share on a decent news. Tomorrow it might hold $5. Stay tuned. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 2, 2024 20:44:26 GMT -5
I think you are out by a factor of 10  The 1% is based on UTHR's sales, not MNKD royalties. From the contract; “ Net Sales” has the meaning set forth in Section 1.71 of the License Agreement." If you look at section 1.71 of the Mannkind/UTHR license you see; "“ Net Sales” shall mean the net sales recorded by United Therapeutics or its Affiliates or sublicensees for the sale or disposition of Product to Third Parties (other than sublicensees) in bona fide arm’s length transactions, as determined in accordance with GAAP and as reported in United Therapeutics’ audited financial statements." (plus a list of deductions UTHR is allowed to make.) In other words MNKD sold about 10% of their royalty revenue stream, not 1%. 1% of 10% is 10%. "MNKD) announced that on December 27, 2023 it sold a 1% royalty in net sales of Tyvaso DPI® (treprostinil) inhalation powder in exchange for up to $200 million, including the purchase price of $150 million and an additional potential milestone payment of up to $50 million." "Pursuant to a license agreement with United Therapeutics, MannKind is entitled to a 10% royalty on net sales of Tyvaso DPI, subject to certain reductions." investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-and-sagard-healthcare-enter-royalty-purchase-agreement?_ga=2.155195448.223883343.1704220543-1360695594.1704220543&_gl=1*1l3ivc8*_ga*MTM2MDY5NTU5NC4xNzA0MjIwNTQz*_ga_4PG70PBDQW*MTcwNDIzNDYyNy4yLjEuMTcwNDIzNDYzNS41Mi4wLjA. Couple things are interesting. It looks like this is the first time we’ve seen in writing what “low double digits” actually means, and what it means is 10%. And the way I read this is 1% of the 10% (or 10% of the overall entitlement) has been sold to Sagard. The rest of my math still holds (for whatever little its worth). |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 2, 2024 20:52:34 GMT -5
I think the 1% of royalty is of the 10-14% ("low double-digit") royalty owed by UTHR to MNKD on Tyvaso DPI sales. i.e., the simplistic view is if MannKind is currently getting 11%, they'll now get 10% and give the other 1% to Sagard.
So if we assume 1% (of 11%) is worth .25 cents a share, than selling all of the rights to the royalty would be 11 x .25/share or $2.75.
Considering selling all of the royalties would mean Sagard would turn over ~$2.2B in cash, the market capitalization of MNKD would theoretically change from ~$1.06B to ~$3.26B (give or take), and the share price would be approximately 3 x $3.64 (previous close) or $10.92 (and MTOI's prediction would come true!). Reality is much more complicated of course.
If MannKind sold off their royalty stream from UTHR, there's no way the market cap would still be $1B. Most of that $1B valuation is because of UTHR royalties. It's not additive at all. Also the market cap is way more detailed than just cash. Agree but in theory the market cap would at least double and probably more since cash on hand (and elimination of debt?) would cause that, and then removal of ambiguity about the future of the money from royalties, then any valuation for whatever MNKD was pre-UTHR would more or less remain with the exception that the valuation has to also account for differences in pipeline, something for having 2 FDA approved TS applications, (marginal) improvements in Afrezza sales, et cetera. And, I assume a small company with a mountain of cash would immediately become an acquisition target. I’ll agree 3x would be too optimistic, but somewhere between 2x and 3x but even so, it’s still a moot point. |
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Jan 2, 2024 21:52:03 GMT -5
So the best way to state that is a 100 basis point improvement, the percentage is 1/7 or 15% improvement…that avoids confusion whether you mean 1% or 10%. It may be a 15% improvement but its a 1% reduction in the percentage of hemoglobin A in your blood that has glucose attached. No it’s not, it’s still a 15% reduction. Going from 7% to 6% is 100 basis point or 15% improvement. A 1% reduction would be 7% to 6.93%. |
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