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Post by porkini on Apr 3, 2024 17:17:55 GMT -5
Wow. Never heard that before. Really great. I've seen Santana twice in concert and I wish I could say it was about 10x that. Such a great artist. Thank you peppy !! Not to sidetrack this, but this is a better video version of that song: Also, I looked but did not see previously on this thread, here is the Form 8-K: investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/19646/html |
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Post by mango on Apr 3, 2024 19:33:12 GMT -5
As Alethea pointed out, this deal involves roughly 0.005 of MNKD shares. That is, 0.5%. If they sold 1.5M shares all at once (roughly), I agree about a definite and temporary downward pressure, and maybe that happened and we already felt it. I don’t know what is weirder…cretin liking a post of yours or seeing cretin’s name in green! Two anomalies in one day! 😉 I do appreciate cretin taking on the job though. Can’t say I’ve ever agreed much with him, but it is a noble commitment. Cheers cretin 🍻 |
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Post by peppy on Apr 3, 2024 19:57:42 GMT -5
If they sold 1.5M shares all at once (roughly), I agree about a definite and temporary downward pressure, and maybe that happened and we already felt it. I don’t know what is weirder…cretin liking a post of yours or seeing cretin’s name in green! Two anomalies in one day! 😉 I do appreciate cretin taking on the job though. Can’t say I’ve ever agreed much with him, but it is a noble commitment. Cheers cretin 🍻 Mango, always remember and never forget, you are a nicer person than I am.  More Santana. |
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 3, 2024 21:14:10 GMT -5
At first glance I thought the name of this thread was Mannkind pays off Cretin debt.😎 Such a PR release would make me very bullish, possibly into shameless pumper category, on MNKD. 😆 |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Apr 4, 2024 7:29:27 GMT -5
Anytime debt is paid off it’s a positive thing. Very happy to see these two debts out of the way. This is huge milestone for MannKind. Just think where the company was 5 years ago and where we are today. Next year we should see Afrezza Peds approval and Clofazimine approval and Nintedanib in Phase 3. Incredible. I see this as a $20-$25 stock following those events. With the elimination of certain debt and several "events" still brewing (CIPLA, Clofazimine, Peds,continued UTHR Tyvasso indications, the intellectual property/patents, etc), I thought I might review the dynamics of share price and valuation. Of course potential revenue / profit projections are in the equation. As it stands today, 270 Million shares outstanding, for the purposes of the easiest possible math, let's just say 250 Million shares outstanding. Today, at $200 Million in Gross Top Line revenue and a penny a share in profit the last couple quarters, MNKD has put about $2.5 Million in profit to the bottom line (each quarter) for its owners. If you had $1 Billion Dollars to spare, is this a company that you buy for $1 Billion dollars yourself? The question being is how long would it take for you to get your money back and certainly your belief can factor in CIPLA, Peds, Clofazimine, and all these things. In the relatively near future (a couple years maybe), can the company start putting $100 Million in profit to the bottom line? That's a big jump from today,but while we have the proforma projection pen out, let's say they can get there by end of 2026. At 250 Million Shares outstanding, every $4 is $1 Billion in purchase price. So, those purchasing shares today are paying $1 Billion for this company for their part/shares. So $8 pps is a $2 Billion purchase price, $12 pps a $3 Billion purchase price, $16 pps a $4 Billion purchase price, $20 pps a $5 Billion purchase price, $24 pps a $6 Billion purchase price, $28 pps a $7 Billion purchase price, and so on. So, being pragmatic about my expectations for price per share, as we see all these things come online without hiccups and hopefully continue to see the truth growth of Afrezza around the world, I think these quarterly earnings calls need to ultimately start seeing the company put $25 to $50 Million in profit down per quarter $200 Million a year with continued accelerated growth expectations for someone to lay $4 or $5 Billion on the table and feel like they could get that money back in a reasonable period of time. Obviously, with pharmaceuticals, a drug can take off to blockbuster status and revenue / profit goals can be realized quickly. Here's to hoping that $5 Billion valuation comes and that $20 to $25 price goal is realized before the cows come home. An acquirer, has to see / believe all these realizations and pays a premium to capture the assets before it all happens. That would be another way to get to this range more quickly. Lots of good things need to begin falling in place.... Come on CIPLA, come on Peds, come on Clofazimine As Steve Martin once said to John Candy (PT&A's), next time when you tell a story, try to have a point, it will make the story much more interesting to the listener. Well, really don't have a point here, just musing a bit about what it really takes to justify a stock price. Today at $4 bucks a share, that Billion dollar price tag is probably about right until the company can start laying down more cards towards a flush or full house. Anxiously awaiting the hockey stick revenue chart. 2023 over 2022 was a first good move off the heel on onto the shaft! GLTA. |
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Post by uvula on Apr 4, 2024 7:58:16 GMT -5
The previous post made me curious. How many shares were there in 2004 when mnkd was $100/share?
In June 2014 the market cap was 3.8B when afrezza got fda approval
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 4, 2024 9:01:52 GMT -5
One of the intangible assets estimated for acquisition is "goodwill". An uncle of mine used to call it "blue sky". The accounting rule is: Goodwill = Purchase Price - Net Tangible Assets. The point is I wouldn't try to estimate what the share price should be based on what the purchase price should be. I was taught the way to estimate the share price is to first determine Earnings Per Share (EPS) and then multiply that by the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). Given MNKD share price is $4.43 and the EPS is $.01, we can see that the P/E is 443 (at this moment). The math works but is it really showing us something meaningful? Yes and no. If you look at one of peppy's monthly charts you can see the trading range for the last several years and see that the current price is in the range that began in 2017 after Mike Castagna took over as CEO. To break out of this range MNKD needs an average Short Interest Rate, not "high" or "very high", and EPS needs to get to a place where a typical P/E will put the share price above the current range. I haven't tried looking at average P/E for a while. P/E is typically estimated on a market segment basis. Last time I looked (too many years ago), the range was roughly low 20:1 to 70:1. In discussions here more recently, someone said 14:1. I think that's too low, but if we use 14:1 as the benchmark, and want to see $20 to $25 per share, it means EPS on 270M shares needs to be between $386M and $482M ($1.43 and $1.79 earnings per share). Can't wait. |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Apr 4, 2024 9:33:38 GMT -5
One of the intangible assets estimated for acquisition is "goodwill". An uncle of mine used to call it "blue sky". The accounting rule is: Goodwill = Purchase Price - Net Tangible Assets. The point is I wouldn't try to estimate what the share price should be based on what the purchase price should be. I was taught the way to estimate the share price is to first determine Earnings Per Share (EPS) and then multiply that by the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). Given MNKD share price is $4.43 and the EPS is $.01, we can see that the P/E is 443 (at this moment). The math works but is it really showing us something meaningful? Yes and no. If you look at one of peppy's monthly charts you can see the trading range for the last several years and see that the current price is in the range that began in 2017 after Mike Castagna took over as CEO. To break out of this range MNKD needs an average Short Interest Rate, not "high" or "very high", and EPS needs to get to a place where a typical P/E will put the share price above the current range. I haven't tried looking at average P/E for a while. P/E is typically estimated on a market segment basis. Last time I looked (too many years ago), the range was roughly low 20:1 to 70:1. In discussions here more recently, someone said 14:1. I think that's too low, but if we use 14:1 as the benchmark, and want to see $20 to $25 per share, it means EPS on 270M shares needs to be between $386M and $482M ($1.43 and $1.79 earnings per share). Can't wait. Yes. Without the technicality of inserting P/E ratios into the conversation, this is precisely where I was headed. $200 Million in annual profit and signs it will continue growing into the "blue sky" is exactly what would allow investors to speculate into that $20+ share price (of course believing that $386M to $428M in earnings was in the not too distant horizon). Certainly an acquirer could project growth into those earnings potential if we passed the $200M profit point and the pipelines and rollouts remained robust! In my view, passing the $25M quarterly profit run rate with no reason to believe growth will slow begins to take the lid off of share price speculation and allows us to see our way to a $20+ pps opportunity. For now, I will remain in my near two decade long fox hole. I feel safe in here among friends, but look forward to the day when we can all come out! Thx |
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Post by parrerob on Apr 4, 2024 11:49:38 GMT -5
The previous post made me curious. How many shares were there in 2004 when mnkd was $100/share? In June 2014 the market cap was 3.8B when afrezza got fda approval Here at page 6 You can find an interesting graph (mnkd market cap historical graph). You can find an answer to your question as company value at 50$ pps was less then 1 billion$. |
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Post by parrerob on Apr 4, 2024 11:55:40 GMT -5
Graph start in 2009 unfortunately. pps was around 50$.
Yahoo historical values start from 2005 where pps was around 60-70.
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Post by Clement on Apr 4, 2024 11:57:20 GMT -5
The previous post made me curious. How many shares were there in 2004 when mnkd was $100/share? In June 2014 the market cap was 3.8B when afrezza got fda approval Here at page 6 You can find an interesting graph (mnkd market cap historical graph). You can find the answer to your question as company value at 100$ pps was 1 billion$. Really? The answer is 9 - 2 = 7? (Forgive me, Parrerob, I'm trying to be funny despite the horror of the answer. Yes, I'm talking exponents.) |
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Post by parrerob on Apr 4, 2024 12:04:01 GMT -5
Really? The answer is 9 - 2 = 7? (Forgive me, Parrerob, I'm trying to be funny despite the horror of the answer. Yes, I'm talking exponents.) Ciao Clement I corrected the post as market cap graph started in 2009..... with less then 1 billion $ and pps was around 50$. So in 2009 around 20 million shares available. |
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Post by parrerob on Apr 4, 2024 12:08:17 GMT -5
Really? The answer is 9 - 2 = 7?
(Forgive me, Parrerob, I'm trying to be funny despite the horror of the answer. Yes, I'm talking exponents.)[/quote]
Remember: the answer is always 42!!!! (Douglas Adams)
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Post by Clement on Apr 4, 2024 12:19:55 GMT -5
^Sometimes I feel like a hitchhiker, but maybe I'm just lost in space.
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Post by biffn on Apr 4, 2024 15:29:16 GMT -5
has anyone figured it out how much interest they’re now going to save in the current quarter/FY, because that should all go straight to the bottom line, i.e., profit.
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