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Post by radgray68 on Jul 10, 2024 13:01:56 GMT -5
I expected a move up with the 2nd quarter results. However, I wonder if this 50% move we’ve just experienced from low $3s to low $5 isn’t exactly the move I was thinking about. If not, my math says we’ll move to about $8 by years end. JMHO Mind sharing the math? I’m going on the assumption that there is a completed cup n handle formation in our chart. That would signal a breakout is eminent. To me it’s best seen on the one year and five year weekly price charts. that’s on the technical side. Then I add the improving fundamentals and statements made by UTHR and MNKD management to my hunch about great 2nd quarter numbers and viola. The depth of the cup represents about a 50% move from trough to peak. If we are about to break out above here, then William O’Neil suggests a 50% move is possible. A 50% move from here takes us to about $8. I just don’t know if we’re ready for that yet because we’re ALREADY up 50% in such a short time. With almost everything falling to the bottom line, though, this could be the time. The big variable is how much we are now going to be spending on trials. As any technical analyst will tell you, it’s all reading tea leaves, based on educated guesses, until proven valid or false. Only time will tell. I can’t wait for Q2 results. |
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Post by Clement on Jul 10, 2024 13:48:05 GMT -5
Bet on q2 results? This is mine: 71m$ rev Royalties 25,2 Collab%serv 26 Afrezza 16 Vgo 3,8 Earnings: 0,04 Here's my bet for Q2 2024 revenues: Royalties 27 Coll & Svcs 25 Afrezza 16 VGo 4 Total $72M This is less than 10% increase over Q1 2024. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jul 10, 2024 14:30:08 GMT -5
Bet on q2 results? This is mine: 71m$ rev Royalties 25,2 Collab%serv 26 Afrezza 16 Vgo 3,8 Earnings: 0,04 Here's my bet for Q2 revenues: Royalties 27 Coll & Svcs 25 Afrezza 16 VGo 4 Total $72M 2Q23 Numbers: Royalties $19,055M
Coll & Svcs $11,211M Afrezza $13,527MVGo $ 4,818M ---------------Total $48,611M |
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Post by ktim on Jul 10, 2024 14:44:56 GMT -5
Use algebra ... it's faster and simpler. $10 in August. But, that's mytakeonit Indeed algebra is fun. Right now we're up $0.18 on the day. Maintaining that for 37 trading days left before end of Aug that's a $6.66 increase, getting us to $12.19  Of course if we used the daily % increase and compounded it, we get to $20.10 by end of August... of course that requires a little more than algebra, that's like exponentials and pixie dust |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 10, 2024 15:08:57 GMT -5
my $10 August is right after the conference call ... so early August.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 10, 2024 22:40:06 GMT -5
Q1
Royalties Collab 22,651
Revenue Services 24,848
Net – Afrezza 14,438
Net – V-Go 4,326
Total revenues 66,263
Optimistic Q2 (15-20% T-DPI growth, ~10% Afrezza)
Royalties Collab 26,000
Revenue Services 28,000
Net – Afrezza 16,000
Net – V-Go 4,000
Total revenues 74,000
I really have not kept up with Afrezza sales trends, but I'm assuming at least modest growth due to Q1 always being the worst. The reasons for an optimistic T-DPI quarter (expected continuing conversions from nebulized, less payment aid, and historic sales trends) have been discussed here a lot already.
Even if MNKD hits the optimistic #'s, I don't think share price will really take off without some good news from clofazimine or the next step in expanding T-DPI (PH-ILD I think). MNKD is 13% shares shorted, so there are people who will keep betting LQDA gets approved before that happens.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 10, 2024 23:32:44 GMT -5
Does that mean that you didn't load up  Too Bad ... So Sad The run will be starting ... But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by letitride on Jul 11, 2024 0:50:06 GMT -5
Im in for the $20.10 exponential pixie dust is just fine with me if thats what it takes. Lets Go!😎
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 11, 2024 6:31:06 GMT -5
Q1 Royalties Collab 22,651 Revenue Services 24,848 Net – Afrezza 14,438 Net – V-Go 4,326 Total revenues 66,263 Optimistic Q2 (15-20% T-DPI growth, ~10% Afrezza) Royalties Collab 26,000 Revenue Services 28,000 Net – Afrezza 16,000 Net – V-Go 4,000 Total revenues 74,000 I really have not kept up with Afrezza sales trends, but I'm assuming at least modest growth due to Q1 always being the worst. The reasons for an optimistic T-DPI quarter (expected continuing conversions from nebulized, less payment aid, and historic sales trends) have been discussed here a lot already. Even if MNKD hits the optimistic #'s, I don't think share price will really take off without some good news from clofazimine or the next step in expanding T-DPI (PH-ILD I think). MNKD is 13% shares shorted, so there are people who will keep betting LQDA gets approved before that happens. Your observation about the seasonality of Afrezza sales with 1Q typically the worst (and 4Q typically the best) is a good point with respect to Q2 being better than Q1. I also assume improving numbers for Tyvaso DPI royalties. I’m unsure about Collaboration & Manufacturing. I have a memory of Stephen Binder saying they would be somewhat flat and estimated less than we’ve been seeing. I think the capacity improvements accounted for the increased numbers, but I haven’t assumed they would stay elevated. I agree there needs to be another catalyst to establish a new higher floor to the MNKD share price (in what price range??) but I would add improved sales of Afrezza from INHALE-3 as a possibility to your list of clofazimine and expanded indications for Tyvaso DPI. If INHALE-3 was a catalyst, I expect we will see that in 4Q in the 3Q earnings report, but somehow institutional investors will know sooner. Additionally, INHALE-1 Pediatric trial results will come next year and if INHALE-3 made a difference in Afrezza sales, INHALE-1 should give that a boost. With respect to LQDA and Yutrepia, I assume that impact is “baked in”. Can there be any investing action left to be taken because of the pending approval of Yutrepia? For there to be an important consequence to UTHR (and MNKD by extension), there needs to be a material impact from an established sales trend with Yutrepia. I don’t know how likely that is in 2024 or even 2025. Sagard stipulated to a $50M sweetener that looks possible to trigger maybe next year or 2026 and based on the one estimate of Yutrepia taking “fully 10% of the market”, I’m not very worried about LQDA being a serious drag on UTHR or MNKD. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 11, 2024 8:51:08 GMT -5
One other thing to add to possible catalysts to improve revenue from Afrezza is progress on a trial for treating gestational diabetes with Afrezza. I remember there were comments that some of the doctors that participated in the INHALE-3 trial became interested in the suitability of Afrezza for gestational diabetes. Mike confirmed in the recent Juicebox podcast (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHxj-e_DNlU) that MannKind will be proceeding with a trial for gestational diabetes. I don't know how big the market is, but I assume Afrezza will do well in the trial and it will be another notch in the belt of indications (and label/SoC?) for Afrezza. I'll guess that might get underway later this year and be complete in 2025 and revenue "baked in" around that time.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 11, 2024 9:00:12 GMT -5
Q1 Royalties Collab 22,651 Revenue Services 24,848 Net – Afrezza 14,438 Net – V-Go 4,326 Total revenues 66,263 Optimistic Q2 (15-20% T-DPI growth, ~10% Afrezza) Royalties Collab 26,000 Revenue Services 28,000 Net – Afrezza 16,000 Net – V-Go 4,000 Total revenues 74,000 I really have not kept up with Afrezza sales trends, but I'm assuming at least modest growth due to Q1 always being the worst. The reasons for an optimistic T-DPI quarter (expected continuing conversions from nebulized, less payment aid, and historic sales trends) have been discussed here a lot already. Even if MNKD hits the optimistic #'s, I don't think share price will really take off without some good news from clofazimine or the next step in expanding T-DPI (PH-ILD I think). MNKD is 13% shares shorted, so there are people who will keep betting LQDA gets approved before that happens. Your observation about the seasonality of Afrezza sales with 1Q typically the worst (and 4Q typically the best) is a good point with respect to Q2 being better than Q1. I also assume improving numbers for Tyvaso DPI royalties. I’m unsure about Collaboration & Manufacturing. I have a memory of Stephen Binder saying they would be somewhat flat and estimated less than we’ve been seeing. I think the capacity improvements accounted for the increased numbers, but I haven’t assumed they would stay elevated. I agree there needs to be another catalyst to establish a new higher floor to the MNKD share price (in what price range??) but I would add improved sales of Afrezza from INHALE-3 as a possibility to your list of clofazimine and expanded indications for Tyvaso DPI. If INHALE-3 was a catalyst, I expect we will see that in 4Q in the 3Q earnings report, but somehow institutional investors will know sooner. Additionally, INHALE-1 Pediatric trial results will come next year and if INHALE-3 made a difference in Afrezza sales, INHALE-1 should give that a boost. With respect to LQDA and Yutrepia, I assume that impact is “baked in”. Can there be any investing action left to be taken because of the pending approval of Yutrepia? For there to be an important consequence to UTHR (and MNKD by extension), there needs to be a material impact from an established sales trend with Yutrepia. I don’t know how likely that is in 2024 or even 2025. Sagard stipulated to a $50M sweetener that looks possible to trigger maybe next year or 2026 and based on the one estimate of Yutrepia taking “fully 10% of the market”, I’m not very worried about LQDA being a serious drag on UTHR or MNKD. I agree with you on manufacturing. Cost+5% (if I'm remembering that % correctly) means that as the manufacturing process matures and costs go down, so will the overall manufacturing revenue number...but cost of revenue should also go down so it will pretty much be a wash for MNKD I disagree regarding LQDA impact being baked in, at least for the short term. I expect Yutrepia approval to be a stock manipulation event with pumping of LQDA, shorting of MNKD and UTHR. Complete with plenty of articles analyzing numbers and statistics. It'll take a quarter or longer for that to settle, because ramping time, etc. Maybe I'm a pessimist  The Sagard $50M is IMO dependent on PH-IPF in some form or another. Doubling T-DPI revenue in 1.5 years seems unlikely with the current indications. The UTHR thread has a small discussion about how people with PH-IPF may have undiagnosed PH-ILD, and that could be a path for them to get T-DPI. There may also be some off-label PH-IPF prescriptions once TETON-2 releases results? |
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 11, 2024 9:05:57 GMT -5
Interesting question about whether Yutrepia factor is priced in or not. Since I tend to believe that well known events/issues are priced in by the smart money, that goes for Yutrepia too IMO. Sometimes “it’s priced in” can be a good thing for us. Hopefully true here, but we’ll see. I think there’s always been room for LQDA and UTHR/MNKD to thrive off this space.
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Post by Clement on Jul 18, 2024 10:28:08 GMT -5
Last year,
MNKD Q2 2023 earnings call was on Aug 7.
Here is a bullet point from the announcement: "2Q 2023 Tyvaso DPI royalties of $19M; +63% vs. 1Q 2023"
That would be about a $7M increase in T-DPI royalties. Does anyone remember last year why such a jump from Q1 to Q2?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 18, 2024 11:46:31 GMT -5
I don’t remember the timing on the improvements in production capacity (drying, etc.) but my weak memory is the bump was related to shipping to fill shortfalls in required distribution inventory.
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Post by Clement on Jul 23, 2024 10:06:45 GMT -5
We will know about T-DPI royalties paid to MNKD when UTHR reports Q2. UTHR EC could happen as soon as 8 days from now.
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Too Bad ... So Sad
