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Post by ktim on Aug 28, 2024 20:57:36 GMT -5
A covered call to me is ... using a phone booth. I see $10 in September !!! September? What year? I think we'll be there by Sept 2026. |
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Post by mymann on Aug 28, 2024 21:04:01 GMT -5
I think we'll be there by Sept 2026. My crystal ball says $100 by September 2026 After buyout. |
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Post by ktim on Aug 28, 2024 21:17:47 GMT -5
Wow... we're going to have a market cap roughly twice what UTHR market cap currently is when a significant majority of our profits will be from 10% of the sales of a portion of their total revenue? Hope your crystal ball is still under warranty.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 28, 2024 21:54:45 GMT -5
He didn’t say how soon after.  But, I don’t think you have a share price after a buyout. December 2026 revenues could be Afrezza, V-Go (I suppose), Tyvaso DPI, clofazimine, and a smidge of nintedanib. Maybe $500M if we’re lucky? I will be a little surprised if there aren’t some shares issued along with cash to pay off the $230M in convertible bonds that mature in December 2026. I’ll speculate the Street will “price in” a good P/E bump from nintedanib in 2027, so maybe $30 to $40 per MNKD share? Could there be a buyout at that point for $60/share? Not impossible, but doesn’t feel likely. If Boehringer Ingelheim is the most likely acquirer because of nintedanib DPI, I don’t see them waiting until September or December 2026. |
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Post by ktim on Aug 28, 2024 23:12:43 GMT -5
What you're proposing $60/sh buyout by BI, would on fully diluted basis mean well over half of current BI valuation estimate and 36 times MNKD revenue (not earnings). Seems a stretch for getting board approval on the acquisition.
But fun to think about.
Heck, I consider trading at $10/sh by end of 2026 is fun to think about.
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Post by letitride on Aug 29, 2024 5:52:51 GMT -5
No need to hold $6 when you can have $7. Lets Go!
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 29, 2024 8:03:53 GMT -5
IMO a decent partnership agreement with BI would take MNKD to $10 assuming we hit the milestones. If no BI partnership, then MNKD-201 will not have much effect on the bottom line until much later this decade. Good phase 3 results for MNKD-101 and then NDA would start the road to $10, and approval would clinch it. Both of these....a man can dream, right?
Either of these would help counter (overwhelm really) the shadows of Liquidia approval or dilution for the $230M conv bond. I feel that these things are what are keeping the short interest high.
I don't see any Afrezza press release really pushing the price up. That's due to so much news that has not done much to drive scripts. It's going to take significant (200%+) TRx growth to convince investors that this drug can make a profit that's significant compared to T-DPI's
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 29, 2024 9:14:53 GMT -5
What you're proposing $60/sh buyout by BI, would on fully diluted basis mean well over half of current BI valuation estimate and 36 times MNKD revenue (not earnings). Seems a stretch for getting board approval on the acquisition. But fun to think about. Heck, I consider trading at $10/sh by end of 2026 is fun to think about. Fun? Perhaps I should have been more explicit in the math I was doing in my head and what research showed about the last 15 acquisitions by Boehringer Ingelheim (https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitions-by-boehringer-ingelheim/__ooKdHxXtEcyDITzNJ6ncOXIosHFWVdjBkDWzzeDMuNQ)
Boehringer Ingelheim has over 53,000 employees in over 130 markets and has a current market capitalization of around $191B. Their acquisition of Merial in 2015 was valued at $12.5B. There may have been larger acquisitions where terms were not published, but $12.5B is what I used to estimate whether an acquisition for MannKind valued at $60/share was achievable.
Using a generous estimate of $1 to $2 EPS and a 17 P/E for MannKind at the end of 2026 should yield upwards of $30 per share. If we assume an equally generous offer of 2x share price ($60) and multiply by MannKind's 270M shares outstanding, the acquisition would cost Boehringer Ingelheim about $16.2B, or less than 10% of BI's current market cap.
I don't know if that's fun to think about, but it at least explains better why I said I thought that was unlikely.
IF BI decides acquisition is the best strategy (because they make drugs for diabetes and lung disease), they won't wait until MNKD is revved up and hitting on all cylinders. It will happen much much sooner at a much cheaper premium.
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Post by dh4mizzou on Aug 29, 2024 9:18:36 GMT -5
prcgorman2
If you're going to dream, dream BIG !!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 29, 2024 9:22:39 GMT -5
Not dreaming. MannKind's Phase 1 trial of nintedanib DPI is a multi-billion dollar threat to Boehringer Ingelheim's 2nd best selling drug.
They've probably noticed and are preparing a strategy. Acquisition is one alternative. Partnership is another. Legal stalling ala UTHR and Liquidia is not likely. Doing nothing is not an option.
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Post by rickf on Aug 29, 2024 9:42:29 GMT -5
What you're proposing $60/sh buyout by BI, would on fully diluted basis mean well over half of current BI valuation estimate and 36 times MNKD revenue (not earnings). Seems a stretch for getting board approval on the acquisition. But fun to think about. Heck, I consider trading at $10/sh by end of 2026 is fun to think about. Fun? Perhaps I should have been more explicit in the math I was doing in my head and what research showed about the last 15 acquisitions by Boehringer Ingelheim (https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitions-by-boehringer-ingelheim/__ooKdHxXtEcyDITzNJ6ncOXIosHFWVdjBkDWzzeDMuNQ)
Boehringer Ingelheim has over 53,000 employees in over 130 markets and has a current market capitalization of around $191B. Their acquisition of Merial in 2015 was valued at $12.5B. There may have been larger acquisitions where terms were not published, but $12.5B is what I used to estimate whether an acquisition for MannKind valued at $60/share was achievable.
Using a generous estimate of $1 to $2 EPS and a 17 P/E for MannKind at the end of 2026 should yield upwards of $30 per share. If we assume an equally generous offer of 2x share price ($60) and multiply by MannKind's 270M shares outstanding, the acquisition would cost Boehringer Ingelheim about $16.2B, or less than 10% of BI's current market cap.
I don't know if that's fun to think about, but it at least explains better why I said I thought that was unlikely.
IF BI decides acquisition is the best strategy (because they make drugs for diabetes and lung disease), they won't wait until MNKD is revved up and hitting on all cylinders. It will happen much much sooner at a much cheaper premium.
At $60/sh - I would finally be whole and actually make a few pesos! Could it actually happen after about 10 years of waiting?  ?? Praying to the stock gods here!! :-) |
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*** 6 ***
Aug 29, 2024 9:55:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Aug 29, 2024 9:55:45 GMT -5
I agree with ktim, it is fun to think about. 😃
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 29, 2024 10:00:20 GMT -5
rickf - For goodness sake, don't wait for $60 share! It may never happen. Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) may be able to help . If you've been in MNKD a long time, you missed some truly golden opportunities to average down as many have, but it may not be too late to add at the current prices where you won't need $60 to be whole. If you really are that far underwater and cannot afford, or don't want to, invest more in MNKD, you may be better off selling and using the losses to offset taxes. I recommend checking with financial and tax professionals for advice on how to extract the best value from your situation.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 29, 2024 10:03:33 GMT -5
I agree with ktim, it is fun to think about. 😃 I disagree with both of you. It's only "fun" if you can be sure of a good outcome. A buyout in the near term would eliminate a whole bunch of upside and that might be why Mike Castagna has been pretty firm about wanting to take nintedanib DPI through Phase 3 and to market. I can understand his sentiment, but a $191B company qualifies as "big pharma" and they're going to have a different opinion of Mike's strategy and want to prevent that. We know how it feels as MNKD shareholders to have large, well-funded competitors. It's one of the reasons I like the clofazimine pipeline candidate that's just ahead of nintedanib DPI. Clofazimine should be a good revenue opportunity, a boon to NTM sufferers, and not get battered by a bunch of competition. |
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Post by dh4mizzou on Aug 29, 2024 10:06:15 GMT -5
Amen prcgorman2. After the reverse split my ASP was $50ish. I continued to add as I could, and my current ASP is now $ 6.00 and I have a time horizon of mid-2026 for looking to liquidate my position as I'll be newly retired.
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But, I don’t think you have a share price after a buyout.
?? Praying to the stock gods here!! :-)
