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Post by peppy on Aug 30, 2024 21:29:00 GMT -5
How does one justify $12/sh on fundamentals? I can't contribute anything regarding patterns in charts so perhaps that actually indicates $12 in 6 months... though that would be sky high P/E even on optimistic forward earnings basis. Is there anyone that would really take an even money bet that we'll cross $12 in 6 months? I think TA can be good for timing entries and exits of stocks when the indicators are reasonable consistent with fundamentals. you are correct. It could be 7 or 8 months Case in point only because I looked at it today and saw the double. SPRY schrts.co/ASQMcqpyporkini caught the double. I was perhaps being a bit Facetious. it was in reply to price staying at 6 through to the end of year for context. I disagreed, so perhaps I went short. which doesn't diminish, triangle breaks are fast. I haven't used the word facetious in a long time. as with any trade, it could fail, have a stop.. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 30, 2024 22:40:05 GMT -5
You mean we will hit $10 very soon ... instead of waiting till 2026 as some have said ?
WOW ... I just made that all up ... and now I'm a guru !!!
Guess I better buy a few MNKD shares !
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Post by peppy on Aug 30, 2024 22:53:00 GMT -5
You mean we will hit $10 very soon ... instead of waiting till 2026 as some have said ? WOW ... I just made that all up ... and now I'm a guru !!! Guess I better buy a few MNKD shares ! the nickel is still in me. Regarding the time frame, look left. MNKD went from 11.98 to $4.75 in 3 months.....bounced and back to 4.75 the whole damage 5 months. that is the same wedge price is climbing now. $6.05 the first target, $6.50 the next, then $7.50, 10.15, 11,20, and that took 4 months, we should hit $6.50 next week, we hit 6.44 yesterday. that took 4 months.... hmmm EOY could be doable. perhaps not totally flippant of me...... This is my reflective moment. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 30, 2024 23:22:20 GMT -5
Okay ... I'll make a prediction now ... $10 in September ...
So hit your two targets and we will be at $10.15 ... wow, so easy ...
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Post by ktim on Aug 31, 2024 0:25:01 GMT -5
You mean we will hit $10 very soon ... instead of waiting till 2026 as some have said ? WOW ... I just made that all up ... and now I'm a guru !!! Guess I better buy a few MNKD shares ! I actually believe what I'm saying about $10 by end of 2026, not simply pumping. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 31, 2024 1:15:08 GMT -5
Ooooohhh peppy ... ktim is in your face !!!
And no ... I feel that we will be at $10 very soon ... Even the analyst say the same thing.
But, it doesn't matter ... because I have enough shares already !!!
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Post by peppy on Aug 31, 2024 3:44:27 GMT -5
Ooooohhh peppy ... ktim is in your face !!! And no ... I feel that we will be at $10 very soon ... Even the analyst say the same thing. But, it doesn't matter ... because I have enough shares already !!! Middle of the night. People keep asking me why? No clue. Perhaps the fabled short squeeze. The one that was supposed to come when we could sell afrezza. The world's best rapid acting meal time insulin. Catch 22, the operating system of health insurance coverage. In the present moment MNKD has a product that s selling at a profit and growing. MNKD is decreasing its debt. How long to target.... fast would be a short squeeze. MNKD owners what to see a continuation of this price movement Tuesday. Chop chop. One other middle of the night things, Looking at the nasdaq. Is it with this movement or against it so to speak. Jez Louise another nickel. Seen best on the weekly. weekly Nasdaq. schrts.co/UFqgImTgComing off the 10,000 double/triple bottom December 2022 oh look at the short covering. The fed had tighten quickly, and target had been met, the same target every body in the whole world that could read a chart could see as 10,000 was the measured move. I was shocked at the triangle break see it? The top dotted line and the bottom dotted line. That break also has a measured move. do the math I think it is @ 20,000. I couldn't believe my eyeballs, and like all of you people I thought no....... but look at it, look how it moved. The semi's and also some Pharma. LLY, is going to hit 1,000, regeneron I sat here like a dodo bird watching move through 800 saying it is going to 1,000 hit 1,200 the other day. blah blah blah So MNKD, by the end of the year.... 6 year triangle, with an inside three year triangle, coming out shaped as an inverted. Nasdaq; The pop off top the Nasdaq maybe going to have? although semi's have slowed a bit? 20,000 on the NASDAQ hard to believe. Does the tax break for the corporation end? The end of this year? Hmmm, the buy backs have been plentiful. The buy backs may be the pop off top. anyway, see it on the weekly nasdaq? |
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Post by letitride on Aug 31, 2024 9:09:21 GMT -5
As I read your post peppy it felt like your mind was spinning like a top the possibilities were endless the potential was off the chart and its time is well past due. Lets Go!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 31, 2024 11:21:34 GMT -5
ktim - 2 more years to get an additional $4 per share? You say you see that in the fundamentals. I think you would agree $1 EPS should result in $17 per share based on nothing more than an average P/E. That’s simple enough, but as we know price action isn’t only ever based on that simple helpful fundamentals view. To get to $17 though, using only fundamentals, MNKD needs to achieve $270M in profit. I think with all but the $230M in convertible bond debt eliminated, we’re maybe at a point where every additional dollar in revenue falls mostly to the bottom line. To get the extra $4 per share we may only need about .25 cents of EPS. One-fourth of $17 is $4.25. One-fourth of $270M is $67.5M. MNKD should achieve that in less than 12 months. Now I know I’m misusing EPS and P/E but the point is, we’re selling north of $6 on bupbkis for EPS and it feels like a more fair valuation given the value of MNKD as a whole, so earnings beyond this in the context of a promising pipeline and increasing revenues regardless with wildcard possibilities for Afrezza, and I cannot be comfortable with a simple traditional fundamentals view. MTOI is correct that analysts are predicting between $8 and $12. They may be exaggerating but we’re already at $6 and it doesn’t feel like a high that can’t be held. We’re definitely creeping up on a floor and range where the $230M bonds might be pulled off the table and then MNKD is debt free. Last thing, I don’t know what to think of momentum as a factor but it isn’t entirely impossible that MNKD might benefit. Great conversation and so much better than what we’ve had to talk about in the past. Color me grateful (and happy our peppy is back - I like that BD, et al, have got her to elaborate, shows a lot of good thinking on her part).
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 31, 2024 12:41:30 GMT -5
I would love for the $230M of senior convertible notes to be paid back in cash, and avoid ~44M shares being dumped on the market. However the interest rate is a nice low 2.5%, so it's not in MNKD's interest to pay it back early in cash. MNKD also can't pay it back until the pps is over $6.90 for 20 out of 30 days anyway.
The note holders can't ask MNKD to pay it back until 12/1/25, so it looks like this will shake out towards the end of next year. That's probably too soon to get the bonus $50M from Sagard to help with this...but you never know.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 31, 2024 13:31:12 GMT -5
The situation is not as simple as 4.5% interest on savings (essentially) versus 2.5% interest on $230M in debt. Those convertible bonds represent some amount of short interest overhang on the MNKD share price. How much is only a guess, but the SIR on MNKD is unusually high for a company in such a favorable set of circumstances. I do blame the bonds for a slice of that. The sooner they’re gone, the sooner the remaining short interest above average can diminish according to the diminishing returns on shorting a company whose share price is or should be heading north.
I will say I’m surprised at the debt-free goal espoused by MC and SB. It is unusual in business to operate debt free and common wisdom is interest on debt is cheaper than dividends so generally a company has an incentive to minimze equity capitalization and instead incur debt. The current interest rates are not egregious as compared to the 80s and God help everyone if we see a return to a wage/price spiral (more than we’re seeing already). All that to say I’m not against carrying debt to fund operations or for “special projects”, but I’d prefer an old fashioned loan or non-convertible bonds. MannKind is on the precipice of a dramatically improved debt negotiation footing (as compared to being desperate for even “toxic” debt). I’m OK waiting for the reason you described, but I would also be OK with an early retirement and see what hopefully happens to the SIR and share price (in a good way).
Last thought. I mentioned dividends. That always riles some folks. I agree MNKD is still a growth stock but sooner or later, not paying dividends will be a drag on the stock. I don’t care if they don’t pay dividends for another 10 years if the growth trajectory warrants it (and I hope it does!), my main point was equity is an expensive way to fund a company as compared to debt so I am hopeful we’ve seen the last of equity-backed financing.
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 31, 2024 15:03:11 GMT -5
The thing is, if MNKD is in a position to pay off the notes they still don't have to. They can earn that extra ~2% and sit on the cash until 12/2025, then still pay back the money with no shares. In theory, the more money MNKD has saved up (right now) the less likely those notes will drive SIR, as there's more risk those notes won't turn into shares. I'm just worried about MNKD management deciding that dilution and cash on hand is the way they want to go. Hopefully the Board will look out for the shareholder interests in that regard. Because if MNKD is $7+ and those notes turn into shares we should be getting our pitchforks out.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Sept 1, 2024 10:05:52 GMT -5
The thing is, if MNKD is in a position to pay off the notes they still don't have to. They can earn that extra ~2% and sit on the cash until 12/2025, then still pay back the money with no shares. In theory, the more money MNKD has saved up (right now) the less likely those notes will drive SIR, as there's more risk those notes won't turn into shares. I'm just worried about MNKD management deciding that dilution and cash on hand is the way they want to go. Hopefully the Board will look out for the shareholder interests in that regard. Because if MNKD is $7+ and those notes turn into shares we should be getting our pitchforks out. A correction for you and me. For whatever reason, I’d been focused on December 202 6 as the date at which the bonds mature. That is incorrect. It is March 2026 per the MannKind announcement at investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-corporation-prices-upsized-2000-million-convertible. (3 months later than 12/2025.) I agree cash on hand should help keep a lid on SIR because getting paid $5.21 in cash for each $4.01 in bond debt (the conversion price) is going to force covering on the secondary market where there is a risk the share price could be $7 (or at least north of $5.21), and the shortfall would have to be make up by the borrower of the shares sold short using their own cash. Since “cash is king”, I would not be surprised if MannKind management elected to use some amount of shares from treasury to help retire the bond. i.e., some amount of dilution and hopefully mostly cash. MNKD share price has to be at or above $6.77 (130% of the conversion price) for 20 out of 30 days before MannKind can choose to retire the debt based on the terms of the bonds, so for now early retirement is a moot point. That said, anderson recommended repurchasing the bonds on the market. I think insofar as the bonds are available (since not all holders may choose to sell their bonds) they should be selling at a discount and be able to be retired far cheaper than waiting for MNKD to trade at or above $6.77 for 20 out of 30 trading days or March 2026, whichever comes first. Caveat: I’m not a corporate finance wizard so there could be lots more to consider here that I’m unaware of. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Sept 1, 2024 12:02:46 GMT -5
Just so we're clear on the dates. While the notes mature 3/1/2026:
So they need to be ready with the cash by 12/1/2025. Especially if MNKD pps is high, to avoid giving out cheap shares.
But, if MNKD is in a position to pay back a chunk of notes (ie $6.77+ for 20 out of 30 days) then it looks like they could pay it back, partially or in full, on short notice. I'd think this would be a great thing to do if MNKD found out that a note holder was shorting them. I don't know if it's ever done though.
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Post by uvula on Sept 7, 2024 6:58:04 GMT -5
How does this work? Do I start another "six" thread when we get back above 6?
Or should I wait a few months and start a "ten" thread?
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