*** 6 ***

[rickf]

Aug 29, 2024 10:00:20 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

rickf - For goodness sake, don't wait for $60 share! It may never happen. Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) may be able to help . If you've been in MNKD a long time, you missed some truly golden opportunities to average down as many have, but it may not be too late to add at the current prices where you won't need $60 to be whole. If you really are that far underwater and cannot afford, or don't want to, invest more in MNKD, you may be better off selling and using the losses to offset taxes. I recommend checking with financial and tax professionals for advice on how to extract the best value from your situation.

I do agree that I could have averaged down but at my age and present situation it is just too risky to add to this equity. It is a long story but I do agree that averaging down is a good strategy if you have the risk tolerance for it.

[uvula]

Averaging down lowers your avg cost but it also means you are tying up additional money in the same stock. Sometimes just waiting it out is the best strategy. But I'll admit I'm tired of waiting.

[celo]

Keep charging through the 6s!!

[neil36]

Now that we are above the Feb 2021 levels, I believe we are now trading at an eight-year high.

[BD]

Yup, just found a 20-yr chart and the high around 7 years ago was 6.71.

[celo]

Yeah wow and what a long road...

[gamblerjag]

Aug 29, 2024 10:48:58 GMT -5 celo said:

Yeah wow and what a long road...

If we close around here that will be a eight year closing high

[uvula]

I just sold my highest cost shares to offset capital gains on another investment.

Purchase Date: 08/06/13 Purchase Price: $37.1128
Purchase Date: 08/02/13 Purchase Price: $39.8595

[dddupont]

I had to compare, and found my original investments were around the same time:
08/16/13 19 29.3478
08/22/13 80 29.4468
08/23/13 80 27.3242
02/03/14 105 25.9174
08/08/14 17 39.4070

I averaged down a ton since then, and so I am very happy now.

[cjm18]

Here are some pharmaceutical companies with market capitalizations between $1 billion and $3 billion, along with their P/S ratios:

1. **Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)**: P/S ratio around 2.7.
2. **ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)**: P/S ratio around 3.5.
3. **Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)**: P/S ratio approximately 1.9.
4. **Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH)**: P/S ratio around 3.2.
5. **Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)**: P/S ratio about 5.5.

We are at 6.3.

[mpg54]

Amazed that this bull run seems to still have legs. I averaged down long ago just slightly below mid 5’s, but I held this stock so long I’m not jumping now. This feels like the beginning of good things, but who knows. I’d like to think $10 won’t take another 2 years, but I’m a dreamer. I really wonder what’s driving this spurt.

[prcgorman2]

Aug 29, 2024 11:40:52 GMT -5 cjm18 said:

Here are some pharmaceutical companies with market capitalizations between $1 billion and $3 billion, along with their P/S ratios:

1. **Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)**: P/S ratio around 2.7.
2. **ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)**: P/S ratio around 3.5.
3. **Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)**: P/S ratio approximately 1.9.
4. **Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH)**: P/S ratio around 3.2.
5. **Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)**: P/S ratio about 5.5.

We are at 6.3.

I'm not accustomed to analyzing P/S ratios.  I had to ask ChatGPT what they should be for pharma companies.  Here's what it said...

"The average P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio for pharmaceutical companies typically ranges between 4 and 8, but it can vary widely depending on the specific company, its growth prospects, and the market conditions. High-growth pharmaceutical companies, especially those with promising drug pipelines or recent product launches, may have higher P/S ratios, while more established companies with stable revenues may have lower P/S ratios. It's important to compare the P/S ratio with industry peers to assess valuation accurately."

Should I interpret MNKD at 6.3 a good sign of promising drug pipeline and recent product launches?

[phdedieu12]

Got my first shares 5-24-2019 at $1.23

[cjm18]

Aug 29, 2024 12:17:34 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

Aug 29, 2024 11:40:52 GMT -5 cjm18 said:

Here are some pharmaceutical companies with market capitalizations between $1 billion and $3 billion, along with their P/S ratios:

1. **Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)**: P/S ratio around 2.7.
2. **ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)**: P/S ratio around 3.5.
3. **Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)**: P/S ratio approximately 1.9.
4. **Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH)**: P/S ratio around 3.2.
5. **Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)**: P/S ratio about 5.5.

We are at 6.3.

I'm not accustomed to analyzing P/S ratios.  I had to ask ChatGPT what they should be for pharma companies.  Here's what it said...

"The average P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio for pharmaceutical companies typically ranges between 4 and 8, but it can vary widely depending on the specific company, its growth prospects, and the market conditions. High-growth pharmaceutical companies, especially those with promising drug pipelines or recent product launches, may have higher P/S ratios, while more established companies with stable revenues may have lower P/S ratios. It's important to compare the P/S ratio with industry peers to assess valuation accurately."

Should I interpret MNKD at 6.3 a good sign of promising drug pipeline and recent product launches?

I would guess so. Plus maybe higher profit margins ?

[ktim]

Aug 29, 2024 9:14:53 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

Aug 28, 2024 23:12:43 GMT -5 ktim said:

What you're proposing $60/sh buyout by BI, would on fully diluted basis mean well over half of current BI valuation estimate and 36 times MNKD revenue (not earnings). Seems a stretch for getting board approval on the acquisition.

But fun to think about.

Heck, I consider trading at $10/sh by end of 2026 is fun to think about.

Fun?  Perhaps I should have been more explicit in the math I was doing in my head and what research showed about the last 15 acquisitions by Boehringer Ingelheim (https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitions-by-boehringer-ingelheim/__ooKdHxXtEcyDITzNJ6ncOXIosHFWVdjBkDWzzeDMuNQ)

Boehringer Ingelheim has over 53,000 employees in over 130 markets and has a current market capitalization of around $191B.  Their acquisition of Merial in 2015 was valued at $12.5B.  There may have been larger acquisitions where terms were not published, but $12.5B is what I used to estimate whether an acquisition for MannKind valued at $60/share was achievable.

Using a generous estimate of $1 to $2 EPS and a 17 P/E for MannKind at the end of 2026 should yield upwards of $30 per share.  If we assume an equally generous offer of 2x share price ($60) and multiply by MannKind's 270M shares outstanding, the acquisition would cost Boehringer Ingelheim about $16.2B, or less than 10% of BI's current market cap.

I don't know if that's fun to think about, but it at least explains better why I said I thought that was unlikely.

IF BI decides acquisition is the best strategy (because they make drugs for diabetes and lung disease), they won't wait until MNKD is revved up and hitting on all cylinders.  It will happen much much sooner at a much cheaper premium.

When I googled I'd found a much lower estimate of their market cap (they are private company).  I suspect that was outdated.  Though it appears their revenue was 25B euro in 2023, so $191B market cap seems high.  But that really doesn't mean a lot regarding what they'd pay for an acquisition.

It appears OFEV had $3.4B in revenue in 2023.  MNKD is coming up with a competing product, but will have uphill battle to go it alone against BI.  You're proposing BI would pay nearly 5x the current annual rev for OFEV in order to avoid competition from a smaller rival... is there any precedent for something that to me seems totally unrealistic.  Seems would be way cheaper to deploy techniques UTHR is now using against LQDA... delaying and draining of resources.  BTW, if coming up with an inhaled competitor timed for patent expiration of this existing proven API is worth that much, why would LQDA do it, or someone else licensing LQDA platform, or BI licensing LQDA platform?

You list $1 to $2 EPS.  Just earlier you estimated $500M in rev for 2026.  I think that rev est is a good one for 2026 btw.  However, $2 EPS would then imply bottom line profit higher than revenue... no matter how clever our new CFO is, I don't think he pulls that off.   I think $0.50 EPS in 2026 is much more realistic.  My $10/sh forecast is thus a generous 20 P/E.  Might be a somewhat higher EPS, might be a bit higher P/E.  I certainly wouldn't rule out $15 if our pipeline is strong and biotech is back into a favored sector period.

I'd think we'll have at least 300M shares outstanding by end of 2026.  As I think you also said previously, I suspect some shares will be issued in extinguishment of debt as well as employee stock compensation.

While saying it is fun to think about, I sure hope our current share price increase isn't simply a wave of buyout fever.