|
|
1 for 25?
Nov 6, 2024 23:11:43 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Nov 6, 2024 23:11:43 GMT -5
I like markado’s optimism and such an offer would indeed be approved by a majority of shareholders. Also, definitely agree with BD’s observation about share price movement. I’m not sure approval would be that cut-and-dried. And there isn’t anything to say that such an offer wouldn’t invite competitive bidding. Its a safe bet such a premium would be approved, doubt it would be a close call. And while such an offer would theoretically “invite” competitive bidding (in the sense that any offer does), there’s no evidence any other party would actually entertain such a bid. Would be great to one day be in position to expect a real bidding war, but we aren’t there. |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 6, 2024 23:15:07 GMT -5
So what you are saying is that Tyvaso "Franschise" is worth $40 BILLION Dollars? I wouldn't go that far but the other question... is it worth shelling out $4 Billion now just for 10%? I doubt it especially when UTHR's Core Strategy is not PAH. It's Organ Generation. I doubt UTHR would spend $4B now. JMO. Agree. There’s probably some amount UTHR would realistically pay, but based on recent precedent it isn’t $4B. I hope we don’t sell off any more of the royalty. Let’s keep that revenue stream for future (and current) decision makers to deploy, hopefully wisely. I tend to agree but there is a “time value of money” consideration too which says a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. An undiluted debt free MannKind with $800M in the bank, as an example, might be able to invest in ways which make more money in the long run than waiting on the royalties. I’m more comfortable with your slow methodical approach, but there may be better choices. |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 6, 2024 23:20:14 GMT -5
I’m not sure approval would be that cut-and-dried. And there isn’t anything to say that such an offer wouldn’t invite competitive bidding. Its a safe bet such a premium would be approved, doubt it would be a close call. And while such an offer would theoretically “invite” competitive bidding (in the sense that any offer does), there’s no evidence any other party would actually entertain such a bid. Would be great to one day be in position to expect a real bidding war, but we aren’t there. Two companies immediately come to mind that might want to bid on MannKind in a buyout situation: United Therapeutics, and Boehringer-Ingelheim. UTHR would want the Tyvaso DPI franchise. BI would want the nintedanib DPI franchise. Both products are worth billions each. You can confidently predict how a particular buyout offer would result in a deal and no bidding competition but I don’t share your confidence. |
|
|
|
Post by Thundersnow on Nov 7, 2024 1:45:31 GMT -5
Agree. There’s probably some amount UTHR would realistically pay, but based on recent precedent it isn’t $4B. I hope we don’t sell off any more of the royalty. Let’s keep that revenue stream for future (and current) decision makers to deploy, hopefully wisely. I tend to agree but there is a “time value of money” consideration too which says a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. An undiluted debt free MannKind with $800M in the bank, as an example, might be able to invest in ways which make more money in the long run than waiting on the royalties. I’m more comfortable with your slow methodical approach, but there may be better choices. I come from the school of thought that being DEBT FREE is not a good thing. Being DF causes a BULLSEYE to be placed on your back from Acquirer. I look at DEBT (from a micro cap perspective) as a POISON PILL to DETER Buyers. As long as MNKD does not get over extended (ie DNDN) they will be fine. |
|
|
|
Post by Thundersnow on Nov 7, 2024 1:47:33 GMT -5
Its a safe bet such a premium would be approved, doubt it would be a close call. And while such an offer would theoretically “invite” competitive bidding (in the sense that any offer does), there’s no evidence any other party would actually entertain such a bid. Would be great to one day be in position to expect a real bidding war, but we aren’t there. Two companies immediately come to mind that might want to bid on MannKind in a buyout situation: United Therapeutics, and Boehringer-Ingelheim. UTHR would want the Tyvaso DPI franchise. BI would want the nintedanib DPI franchise. Both products are worth billions each. You can confidently predict how a particular buyout offer would result in a deal and no bidding competition but I don’t share your confidence. This is why you diversify your product line. If you have many different "Customers/Partners" it makes a buyout problematic. |
|
|
|
1 for 25?
Nov 7, 2024 7:11:31 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 7:11:31 GMT -5
Its a safe bet such a premium would be approved, doubt it would be a close call. And while such an offer would theoretically “invite” competitive bidding (in the sense that any offer does), there’s no evidence any other party would actually entertain such a bid. Would be great to one day be in position to expect a real bidding war, but we aren’t there. Two companies immediately come to mind that might want to bid on MannKind in a buyout situation: United Therapeutics, and Boehringer-Ingelheim. UTHR would want the Tyvaso DPI franchise. BI would want the nintedanib DPI franchise. Both products are worth billions each. You can confidently predict how a particular buyout offer would result in a deal and no bidding competition but I don’t share your confidence. A bidding war may be a nice thought, but if there were really multiple companies looking to buy MNKD it stands to reason there would have been at least one company to make a bid in all these years. Not impossible that one offer would all of a sudden prompt other(s) to appear. But highly unlikely, there’s no hint of evidence for it plus it doesn’t seem logical. If a company really wanted to bid, they’d do it now (or would have already) rather than waiting for a first bid thus ensuring they have to pay even more for the same target. |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 7:36:46 GMT -5
Two companies immediately come to mind that might want to bid on MannKind in a buyout situation: United Therapeutics, and Boehringer-Ingelheim. UTHR would want the Tyvaso DPI franchise. BI would want the nintedanib DPI franchise. Both products are worth billions each. You can confidently predict how a particular buyout offer would result in a deal and no bidding competition but I don’t share your confidence. A bidding war may be a nice thought, but if there were really multiple companies looking to buy MNKD it stands to reason there would have been at least one company to make a bid in all these years. Not impossible that one offer would all of a sudden prompt other(s) to appear. But highly unlikely, there’s no hint of evidence for it plus it doesn’t seem logical. If a company really wanted to bid, they’d do it now (or would have already) rather than waiting for a first bid thus ensuring they have to pay even more for the same target. Other than IPR, I’m not sure what companies would want to bid on a small BP with little to no prospects and a drug in a saturated market that they’ve been unable to sell. i.e., there’s been plenty of years for offers but little to nothing to compel offers. The conversation began with an acknowledgement that MannKind’s fortunes have changed materially and that companies may now be considering a buyout offer. I provided 2 obvious examples of companies who might conceivably be interested. There could be talks in progress but it would seem unlikely either of us would have any inside knowledge of it, or of the offers, or how they may be received. |
|
|
|
Post by slapshot on Nov 7, 2024 7:37:01 GMT -5
Two companies immediately come to mind that might want to bid on MannKind in a buyout situation: United Therapeutics, and Boehringer-Ingelheim. UTHR would want the Tyvaso DPI franchise. BI would want the nintedanib DPI franchise. Both products are worth billions each. You can confidently predict how a particular buyout offer would result in a deal and no bidding competition but I don’t share your confidence. A bidding war may be a nice thought, but if there were really multiple companies looking to buy MNKD it stands to reason there would have been at least one company to make a bid in all these years. Not impossible that one offer would all of a sudden prompt other(s) to appear. But highly unlikely, there’s no hint of evidence for it plus it doesn’t seem logical. If a company really wanted to bid, they’d do it now (or would have already) rather than waiting for a first bid thus ensuring they have to pay even more for the same target. I tend to agree that a bidding war is unlikely, however imo "if it was to happen, it already would have" is the lamest argument ever! How could anything ever be done for the first time? if it hasnt been done yet it will never be done! what about tomorrow? |
|
|
|
Post by mymann on Nov 7, 2024 7:55:40 GMT -5
No buyout IMO. Maybe partnerships.
|
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Nov 7, 2024 7:59:24 GMT -5
Most bids you don’t hear about.
|
|
|
|
1 for 25?
Nov 7, 2024 8:30:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 8:30:21 GMT -5
A bidding war may be a nice thought, but if there were really multiple companies looking to buy MNKD it stands to reason there would have been at least one company to make a bid in all these years. Not impossible that one offer would all of a sudden prompt other(s) to appear. But highly unlikely, there’s no hint of evidence for it plus it doesn’t seem logical. If a company really wanted to bid, they’d do it now (or would have already) rather than waiting for a first bid thus ensuring they have to pay even more for the same target. I tend to agree that a bidding war is unlikely, however imo "if it was to happen, it already would have" is the lamest argument ever! How could anything ever be done for the first time? if it hasnt been done yet it will never be done! what about tomorrow? Sorry but you didn’t read correctly, or maybe the logic was lost on you. |
|
|
|
Post by BD on Nov 7, 2024 8:54:37 GMT -5
I see slapshot's point, though, but maybe let's apply it to the idea of just a first buyout offer, let alone a bidding war. There has to be a bid before there can be a war. I can't tell you what makes a buyout target really attractive, lots of you have more experience than me on that, and especially in the biotech sector, but it does stand to reason that the more a suitor sees potential future synergy, the more they'd be interested...and maybe that attracts some others who get a chance to rethink it.
There's also this. I asked Co-pilot, "is a buyout more likely when the target's pps is rising or falling?"
Reply:
|
|
|
|
Post by ryster505 on Nov 7, 2024 8:56:26 GMT -5
If you look out further with the Teton trials getting near, and you recall the $8-$10b probable annual run rate for Tyvaso at its peak firing on every cylinder, then $4b isn’t out of the question. Just saying, it may take time but that’s my thought.
|
|
|
|
1 for 25?
Nov 7, 2024 9:01:56 GMT -5
via mobile
BD likes this
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 9:01:56 GMT -5
Yes BD, and the word “maybe” in your post is key. Even a 0.1% chance something is still “maybe” which is why I said it’s not impossible.
If I could buy a widget at $5 but declined, then the widget goes up to $7 and I still (of course) decline, then my neighbor offers to buy it for $15, do I then decide to offer $18 for the widget?
“Maybe” is technically accurate. I’d argue “highly unlikely” is even more accurate.
But hey, it’s a fun topic, everyone loves a bidding war. My personal preference is let’s have that long awaited short squeeze, THEN the bidding war! Could it happen? Maybe!
|
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 9:10:36 GMT -5
Meh. It’s about preserving revenue and acquiring a new source of revenue. BI has a long history of acquiring companies. UTHR acquired one of the competitors for Tyvaso and tried to acquire LQDA but it fell flat. They may have already made an offer to acquire MNKD too, but as we know they’ve partnered but as some have observed, MNKD developing an inhalable genereic drug for IPF treads on ground trod by UTHR and BI. Not sure why there is any attempt to dissuade a BO offer is unlikely. Are we worried people might find that a reason to buy shares of a couple of companies that seem to be frequently hitting new 52-week highs of late?
|
|
