1 for 25?

[markado]

JMO, but I think UTHR will offer an all stock 1 for 25 deal to MNKD, so 11 million shares of UTHR for 275 million shares of MNKD and use MNKD's cash on hand to pay note holders. Debt free, fully accretive transaction. Though only $15.72 per share to MNKD holders, that's more than 100% on top of today's highs, and a $4.3B market cap. I'd have hoped for more, but I'd get that through holding UTHR until they partner/cash out certain IP to other larger pharmacos. Again, JMO. We shall see. Would be fun to watch the impact of such an announcement.

[sr71]

Funny that you mention that idea - I had just been thinking that since MNKD momentarily plunged back into the $7.20's that "somebody(s)" does not want the price to breakout uncontrolled to the upside.

Your theory could possibly be a reason why.  Of course, I think the 40+ million shares Short are a significant factor regardless.

[dh4mizzou]

Given that we're now almost halfway through exceeding that 20 out of 30 day share price stipulation how do you guys think that might play into markado's scenario? If at all.

[markado]

Nov 6, 2024 14:52:42 GMT -5 dh4mizzou said:

Given that we're now almost halfway through exceeding that 20 out of 30 day share price stipulation how do you guys think that might play into markado's scenario? If at all.

I think if MNKD exceeds the 20 trading days above $6.77, in the near term, it frees up the debt repurchase with cash and allows for no further dilution and a 1 for 25 offer would be free to proceed, unencumbered. Again, JMO.

[jkendra]

MannKind's drug Tyvaso DPI accounts for close to 40% of United Therapeutic's current revenue.  It also seems to be the only current growth driver for UTHR currently and for the foreseeable future.

[BD]

Nov 6, 2024 14:36:06 GMT -5 sr71 said:

Funny that you mention that idea - I had just been thinking that since MNKD momentarily plunged back into the $7.20's that "somebody(s)" does not want the price to breakout uncontrolled to the upside.

Your theory could possibly be a reason why.  Of course, I think the 40+ million shares Short are a significant factor regardless.

I know I come across as a party pooper a lot of the time, and it's because I read something like this and my brain just goes, "Wait a minute..."

Please note that I am in fact a big believer in trading instinct (I believe all traders need to read "Trading from the Gut" by Curtis Faith) maybe "someone" doesn't want a breakout.

However, just because the PPS of a stock pulls back a bit after a seriously strong run does not to me imply much of anything, and the most likely reason AFAIC is profit taking, shorting, rebalancing, etc. etc.

I have spoken. 

[prcgorman2]

If any BP is interested in acquiring MNKD, they won't want to wait until the catalysts start delivering to the bottom-line. That said, I'd like to see MannKind deliver more results before accepting a buyout offer. $15 and change seems like a likely offer at this particular point in time, but it doesn't seem like an offer I'd want to accept. The Nintedanib DPI Phase I results already indicate MannKind could take a very big bite of the current $4B+ revenue and forecasted $7B+ for Ofev oral in 2030. Clofazimine may be contributing about the same time or shortly before nintedanib, and the Afrezza pediatric results should be contributing to the bottom-line soon too. It wouldn't surprise me very much if MannKind had a multi-billion dollar revenue stream by 2030. That implies EPS will be measured in dollars, not cents. The namesake for MannKind, Dr. Al Mann, once remarked he would never again sell any of his companies for less than $10B. That's about $35/share. If MannKind manages multi-billion revenue by 2030, I assume $35/share will be in the rear-view mirror.

[ryster505]

It would be a gut punch to sell at double current eval. United would be stealing the company and I would vote against it in a nanosecond.

[ryster505]

More realistically I could see United buyout of the entire Tyvaso franchise for $4b~. That actually makes more sense.

[mpg54]

Nov 6, 2024 16:42:18 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

If any BP is interested in acquiring MNKD, they won't want to wait until the catalysts start delivering to the bottom-line. That said, I'd like to see MannKind deliver more results before accepting a buyout offer. $15 and change seems like a likely offer at this particular point in time, but it doesn't seem like an offer I'd want to accept. The Nintedanib DPI Phase I results already indicate MannKind could take a very big bite of the current $4B+ revenue and forecasted $7B+ for Ofev oral in 2030. Clofazimine may be contributing about the same time or shortly before nintedanib, and the Afrezza pediatric results should be contributing to the bottom-line soon too. It wouldn't surprise me very much if MannKind had a multi-billion dollar revenue stream by 2030. That implies EPS will be measured in dollars, not cents. The namesake for MannKind, Dr. Al Mann, once remarked he would never again sell any of his companies for less than $10B. That's about $35/share. If MannKind manages multi-billion revenue by 2030, I assume $35/share will be in the rear-view mirror.

My thoughts too. While $15 is certainly awesome I admittedly have hopes for a 10b MV someday, while I’m still a share holder of course. Maybe that is pie in the sky stuff and way too many years away, but I really do think the Afrezza still has the potential to be so much more than it is today along with the pipeline. I’m up now, and $15 is certainly great, but I’m a dreamer, unfortunately dreamers aren’t typically good investors without a fair amount of luck. It seems the ones who do well settle for the 10-20%

[cretin11]

I like markado’s optimism and such an offer would indeed be approved by a majority of shareholders. Also, definitely agree with BD’s observation about share price movement.

[Thundersnow]

Nov 6, 2024 18:08:19 GMT -5 ryster505 said:

More realistically I could see United buyout of the entire Tyvaso franchise for $4b~. That actually makes more sense.

So what you are saying is that Tyvaso "Franschise" is worth $40 BILLION Dollars?  I wouldn't go that far but the other question...
is it worth shelling out $4 Billion now just for 10%?  I doubt it especially when UTHR's Core Strategy is not PAH.  It's Organ Generation.  I doubt UTHR would spend $4B now.  JMO.

[prcgorman2]

Sagard valuation of 1% of royalties was more than $200M. UTHR sales estimates for Tyvaso DPI have exceeded $2B annually, so $4B may be too high but the basic idea of buying out the royalties versus buying MannKind outright is not something I had considered, but might make sense.

[prcgorman2]

Nov 6, 2024 18:50:26 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

I like markado’s optimism and such an offer would indeed be approved by a majority of shareholders. Also, definitely agree with BD’s observation about share price movement.

I’m not sure approval would be that cut-and-dried.  And there isn’t anything to say that such an offer wouldn’t invite competitive bidding.

[cretin11]

Nov 6, 2024 21:49:52 GMT -5 Thundersnow said:

Nov 6, 2024 18:08:19 GMT -5 ryster505 said:

More realistically I could see United buyout of the entire Tyvaso franchise for $4b~. That actually makes more sense.

So what you are saying is that Tyvaso "Franschise" is worth $40 BILLION Dollars?  I wouldn't go that far but the other question...
is it worth shelling out $4 Billion now just for 10%?  I doubt it especially when UTHR's Core Strategy is not PAH.  It's Organ Generation.  I doubt UTHR would spend $4B now.  JMO.

Agree. There’s probably some amount UTHR would realistically pay, but based on recent precedent it isn’t $4B. I hope we don’t sell off any more of the royalty. Let’s keep that revenue stream for future (and current) decision makers to deploy, hopefully wisely.