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Post by BD on Nov 7, 2024 9:11:46 GMT -5
[Replying to cretin:]
Short squeezes are fun. Somehow it seems MNKD shorts at least think they can smell good news coming from a long way off so they'd have time to cover first. And maybe they actually can. Or maybe they just want to give that impression.
When I decided some weeks ago I needed to move more into cash in my trading portfolio, the adjustments I made put MNKD as my largest position now. Those of you who know my history might understand why that's kind of scary. As a trend follower, though, I'm not inclined to sell any while it keeps going up. The fear is just in my head, but the rising PPS is real.
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Post by uvula on Nov 7, 2024 9:35:23 GMT -5
I was going to post a comment saying maybe BI could buy UTHR and MNKD, but before doing so I wanted to compare the market caps of all 3 companies.
BI is a corporation but doesn't seem to be public and their website offered no clues to their size or who owns them. Anyone know?
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 7, 2024 9:39:30 GMT -5
AI:
I had not realized until reading this that they were involved in diabetes medication
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Post by uvula on Nov 7, 2024 9:45:42 GMT -5
Now I guess I can say it. Maybe BI will try to buy MNKD and UTHR. No reason for them to get into a bidding war with UTHR over MNKD.
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Post by anderson on Nov 7, 2024 10:18:30 GMT -5
More realistically I could see United buyout of the entire Tyvaso franchise for $4b~. That actually makes more sense. So what you are saying is that Tyvaso "Franschise" is worth $40 BILLION Dollars? I wouldn't go that far but the other question... is it worth shelling out $4 Billion now just for 10%? I doubt it especially when UTHR's Core Strategy is not PAH. It's Organ Generation. I doubt UTHR would spend $4B now. JMO. Thundersnow I think you could have stated your thinking more clearly for people to understand. UTHR already owns the rights to everything and would only be buying out the royalty payments(ie the 4 billion is 10% the 40billion mentioned). The medical patents are good for 20 years, so that is what 17 more years left of royalties? 40/17=2.35 bil a year is what they would need to be make off of Tyvaso DPI to make buying the royalties now for 4billion a break even deal. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 7, 2024 11:08:21 GMT -5
JMO, but I think UTHR will offer an all stock 1 for 25 deal to MNKD, so 11 million shares of UTHR for 275 million shares of MNKD and use MNKD's cash on hand to pay note holders. Debt free, fully accretive transaction. Though only $15.72 per share to MNKD holders, that's more than 100% on top of today's highs, and a $4.3B market cap. I'd have hoped for more, but I'd get that through holding UTHR until they partner/cash out certain IP to other larger pharmacos. Again, JMO. We shall see. Would be fun to watch the impact of such an announcement. I think you need to dream larger. Why not make it 1 for 1. It's healthy to exercise our imaginations to the fullest. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 11:13:31 GMT -5
A buyout using stock is a common mechanism for acquisition. UTHR has acquired companies and tried to acquire LQDA. Dreaming is nice, but 1:25 seems more like a rational estimate.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 12:53:52 GMT -5
A buyout using stock is a common mechanism for acquisition. UTHR has acquired companies and tried to acquire LQDA. Dreaming is nice, but 1:25 seems more like a rational estimate. Dream big if you're gonna dream. How about first we have a short squeeze which pops our share price back to where it was ($50+), which will trigger the serious interest from suitors such as UTHR. Once UTHR tenders an offer (let's conservatively say $100 per share whether via cash or stock), that will "invite" others to bid so the resulting bidding war pushes the actual buyout number closer to $150 or $200 per share. BI might be the ultimate winner of the bidding war, perhaps will roll up UTHR and MNKD so those of us with positions in both companies will be double winners. Is it likely, perhaps not, but is it possible? Yes it is and please don't pour cold water on my dream, TIA. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 13:03:41 GMT -5
A buyout using stock is a common mechanism for acquisition. UTHR has acquired companies and tried to acquire LQDA. Dreaming is nice, but 1:25 seems more like a rational estimate. Dream big if you're gonna dream. How about first we have a short squeeze which pops our share price back to where it was ($50+), which will trigger the serious interest from suitors such as UTHR. Once UTHR tenders an offer (let's conservatively say $100 per share whether via cash or stock), that will "invite" others to bid so the resulting bidding war pushes the actual buyout number closer to $150 or $200 per share. BI might be the ultimate winner of the bidding war, perhaps will roll up UTHR and MNKD so those of us with positions in both companies will be double winners. Is it likely, perhaps not, but is it possible? Yes it is and please don't pour cold water on my dream, TIA. You can of course dream (or is it mock?) while others will attempt to be more practical in their discourse. Each to their own. |
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1 for 25?
Nov 7, 2024 13:46:57 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 13:46:57 GMT -5
And who gets to draw the line on what is “practical” as opposed to not? If I’m gonna dream, then it’s with the scenario above! You are entitled to a lesser dream (but it’s still a dream) and there’s nothing wrong with that. 👍🏼
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 14:19:04 GMT -5
Your characterization that some companies may be interested in a buyout of MannKind is a "dream" is puzzling. Buyouts do happen and indeed UTHR acquired 1 and tried to acquire a second company (LQDA) that made products competing with Tyvaso. markado created the topic of the thread and stated his opinion an offer would be made by UTHR with a 1 UTHR share in exchange for 25 MNKD shares. That's a reasonable estimate for a stock-only buyout of MNKD at its current market capitalization. It's fair to question whether the estimate is reasonable, but you can't argue whether UTHR acquires companies for reasons consistent with their business plans. I won't argue UTHR does want to or will want to acquire MannKind. I admit it is possible but I don't have an opinion of how likely it may be. |
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1 for 25?
Nov 7, 2024 14:42:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Nov 7, 2024 14:42:20 GMT -5
Your bidding war dream is a pleasant one. All I added is to have the short squeeze first. You might find that unrealistic, and I’m not here to argue with you about it.
Heck, I could layer in some TA to support my dream: if we break and hold $7.90, then we break and hold $15, then the next triangle shows $49, THEN we get your bidding war, all of a sudden my scenario isn’t so outrageous is it?
What I won’t do is throw a TA options analysis into it. That would be crazy (and we do have to draw the line somewhere)! 😉
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 7, 2024 14:44:55 GMT -5
I'm slow. I should have realized I was being trolled. Carry on.
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Post by BD on Nov 7, 2024 15:08:20 GMT -5
What I won’t do is throw a TA options analysis into it. That would be crazy (and we do have to draw the line somewhere)! 😉 Good to hear. |
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Post by factspls88 on Nov 7, 2024 15:45:07 GMT -5
How are we all feeling today? It’s been quite a run . 🙏🙏🙏
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