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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2014 22:52:07 GMT -5
You somehow think that Al Mann and his team of attorneys would sign an agreement that would allow SNY NOT to put a full effort into marketing AFREZZA. Not likely. SNY needs to replace the lost revenue coming next year from Lantus. SNY's sales team will have AFREZZA to make their sales quotas. Do you really believe that there will be no more affrezzausers that won't be telling the diabetic community about the virtues of AFREZZA? SNY knows what it takes to have the 1 diabetes drug. Given that AFREZZA has a much larger group of diabetics it can help over Lantus, exactly why do you believe SNY won't put an effort to market AFREZZA? Since I often seem to be cheerleader, I'll chime in with the wish it weren't too easy to do response to the above bolded statement... "Yeah, they know what it takes, but they are now legally prevented from doing it". No I don't really believe that, but unfortunately the door has been left open for exactly that accusation. I will be SHOCKED if we don't get a short smear piece soon on SA or somewhere else making that very point. I wonder whether Mannkind management will take opportunity to address the SNY scandal. I don't think silence is good. I think they do need to say something because this is about the Diabetes sales force. It would help to have some real reassurance that they have some visibility into the stability of the sales force. It would be worrisome if Mannkind management is not in the loop with SNY management on this.
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Post by lynn on Dec 4, 2014 23:00:28 GMT -5
I can feel the tension on this thread . I am a novice to stocks in general . I have a 401k that I only slightly pay attention too ( ignorant I know , I find it boring ./ tho it is currently making me $ & I'm contributing the max amt for my age ) . This is my first investment & I'm almost 43 . I've put more $ into this than I spent closing on my SoCal condo . I am frustrated ! But I feel like this is par for the course as far as investing in game changing technology goes . I'm certain that Apple & Tesla both went thru this & look where they are now. I get the gripes about management ect.. I don't think I'll ever make another investment in Biotec again but I also don't think we'll see another Al Mann. I don't even log into my account to see the red . I was up 100% at one point . Hind sight is always 20/20. Disruptive technology is always rejected initially bc most are resistant to change . It's human nature . It's all or nothing for me now bc I cannot bring myself to sell a single share, in fact should we see $4 ( I hope it doesn't happen !! ) I'll be buying more , so I can feel better about naively buying more at $9 & $10 ./ The Sanofi lawsuit rattled me a bit , but the timing seems questionable . I don't mean to be a conspiracy theorist but I find many things re:Mannkind suspicious . Unanimous AdCom , FDA approval , Partnership ... & we're here ?? It doesn't make sense to me at all !! But I will continue to sleep well . I'm not intelligent in the way most of you are on this board but I'm far from stupid . I'll continue to trust my instincts on this one . Knock on wood ! ,) but they haven't let me down yet ... GLTA
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Post by jpg on Dec 4, 2014 23:13:05 GMT -5
Newbie on this board as well. I had same feeling today, but different reasons, and closed majority of positions. Got crushed last CRL but MNKD calls made it all back and they brought friends in the years since. My best trade in 15 years. The mistake does not lie with management. Reading message boards where people start shooting out numbers of where SP should be, the optimist deep down in all of us believes in an average of those numbers. The market cap tells a different story. This is a novel approach but a very crowded marketplace- it won't trade at a premium until sales dictate. The mistake lies with those that hold out for the dream instead of taking a very nice return. MNKD has a lot ahead of it and I see plenty of entry points. But this Sanofi scandal might not blow over. The CEO at time of MNKD deal was fired and had dealings with these kickbacks. Can't find $1 Billion? If I was MNKD, I would request a look at the books. A sales force that was using kickbacks- changes deal. 35% looks like a rip off now. If MNKD doesn't, the doubters will have a field day because it means MNKD has a weak hand- there were no other bidders. Doesn't help matters that insiders are selling instead of buying- even if scheduled. Top it off you have tax selling for end of year, rough... For now, dead money until at least end of Feb. Technosphere is interesting but hard to risk lung tissue when sublingual uptake is on the rise. Nice board here. Person who made that call on an open something in the mid 4s- thought they were crazy when MNKD was in the 8s. If that holds, amazing analysis. Hi self proclaimed newbie, I have to call you out for this post. You state: sublingual uptake is on the rise Can you give a reference as to what sublingual insulin you are talking about? As far as I am aware the only company that does that is Generex Biotech (GNBT) which is worth 2 cents a share with a market cap of 18 million $. They also have products 'in development' for cannabis, ebola, breast cancer and every 'virus of the day'. They never seem to move anything forward before starting another program though? Strange no? Their management is also 'unusual'... Their stock price chart looks like a Whistler double diamond. You could sell Mannkind and go with them but I think the odds of them ever bringing sublingual insulin forward (never mind to the market) are less then certain. Mannkind on the other hand isn't that far from the starting line... As for the rest of your post I would have a few comments but will wait for your sub lingual insulin reference. Thank you and welcome to this board. I look forward to exchanging with you, JPG
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 4, 2014 23:14:17 GMT -5
The Afrezza boat has already sailed. There is really nothing for Mannkind to say about the Sanofy situation. What they should be talking about is the next product. We should not have to wait until after Afrezza launches for an update on the next project. Who would want to invest in a company without knowing what prospects are on the horizon. They have been silent about this since the Annual Shareholders Meeting.
Trend
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Post by jpg on Dec 4, 2014 23:25:15 GMT -5
There is no one on this board that wishes to admit defeat. Unless you are a cheerleader, you are not welcome. Yes, this investment has so far proven to be a mistake. My timeline now is 10 plus years. Even the victories have proven to not be profitable. I honestly do not know why. Hi Lyric, What defeat? The drug has been on the store shelves for 0 days and we longs are already defeated? I don't think it's that we as a group of longs aren't welcoming more that a lot of shorts make little sense with their arguments. As for this stock being a mistake I would say we are to early to say that obviously but for me so far this has been my biggest gain and by far. My timeline is also long term but have no idea when I will sell. Sometimes these things go up spectacularly fast. Some other biotech's I have had (sadly not enough shares though) have gone up x 5 in less then a year. I wouldn't be surprised if Mannkind didn't also do that. JPG PS: welcome to the board. I hope you can stimulate discussion and feel free to present a good argument that goes against this boards generally optimistic point of view.
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Post by jpg on Dec 4, 2014 23:39:14 GMT -5
I wonder whether Mannkind management will take opportunity to address the SNY scandal. I don't think silence is good. I think they do need to say something because this is about the Diabetes sales force. It would help to have some real reassurance that they have some visibility into the stability of the sales force. It would be worrisome if Mannkind management is not in the loop with SNY management on this. Hi DBC, I understand your anxiety but to me what is going on at Sanofi is simply the way the pharma business used to work till very recently. If it was still actively going on anywhere (in the US) I would be worried about that particular company and think they just don't get it. I used to publicly (in scientific presentations) compare BP to tobacco companies. I had my list of worst offenders (Sanofi didn't exist in the form it is now when I did these presentations) and nothing I have seen so far about Sanofi seems exceptional. I would be very surprised if MNKD (and anyone involved in the pharma industry) didn't know about the rules 'back then'. That these kickbacks were 'business as usual' in 2013 would be surprising to me. JPG
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 5, 2014 2:12:55 GMT -5
"Their stock price chart looks like a Whistler double diamond."
A classic line, JPG!!!
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 5, 2014 2:20:21 GMT -5
I just hope the pharma police keep an eye on everyone as a result of this SNY deal. Otherwise, we will be at a disadvantage, cuz they'll be watching us closely, while the rest continue to "do business as usual." Could Marty S. have arranged this expose?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 5, 2014 2:38:13 GMT -5
I understand your anxiety but to me what is going on at Sanofi is simply the way the pharma business used to work till very recently. If it was still actively going on anywhere (in the US) I would be worried about that particular company and think they just don't get it. I used to publicly (in scientific presentations) compare BP to tobacco companies. I had my list of worst offenders (Sanofi didn't exist in the form it is now when I did these presentations) and nothing I have seen so far about Sanofi seems exceptional. I would be very surprised if MNKD (and anyone involved in the pharma industry) didn't know about the rules 'back then'. That these kickbacks were 'business as usual' in 2013 would be surprising to me. JPG I hope you're right and have no reason to believe otherwise. Fortunately I have a business to run that provides me with enough anxiety that MNKD is often a welcome distraction.
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Post by coco on Dec 5, 2014 3:20:03 GMT -5
I as well have been in this stock over 3 years. There have been exciting times and frustrating times, but that's the way it is with small biotec stocks. I researched this stock of 6 months before I bought it. I read everything I could get my hands on. Al's track record is pretty amazing if you ask me. He is a genius. I don't see him investing over 1 billion of his own money in a product that is going to fail. He is too smart for that. And as for Sanofi, the number one diabetes pharm in the world, I don't see them partnering if they thought it would fail. These 2 top notch organizations can't be wrong. I bought the bulk of my position sub 2's added some at 8 and added again at 6. I'm putting a limit order for 4.50. Don't get me wrong I don't want it to go to 4.50 but if it does, I'm adding to my position once again. As a medical proffesional I see the need for this. As a person who has 2 type 1 diabetics her family, I see the need for this. This is a game changer. And with change comes resistance. Good luck to you. If you can't sleep at night by all means sell but if you can hold on a little while longer do so. I would hate for you to sell and 6 months from now it climbs to 20 plus. Anyway I said my peace now good night. Coco.
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Dec 5, 2014 7:52:33 GMT -5
Hi self proclaimed newbie, I have to call you out for this post. You state: sublingual uptake is on the rise Can you give a reference as to what sublingual insulin you are talking about? As far as I am aware the only company that does that is Generex Biotech (GNBT) which is worth 2 cents a share with a market cap of 18 million $. They also have products 'in development' for cannabis, ebola, breast cancer and every 'virus of the day'. They never seem to move anything forward before starting another program though? Strange no? Their management is also 'unusual'... Their stock price chart looks like a Whistler double diamond. You could sell Mannkind and go with them but I think the odds of them ever bringing sublingual insulin forward (never mind to the market) are less then certain. Mannkind on the other hand isn't that far from the starting line... As for the rest of your post I would have a few comments but will wait for your sub lingual insulin reference. Thank you and welcome to this board. I look forward to exchanging with you, JPG Sorry, should have specified. Leading new Technosphere idea I have heard is for pain. ACRX already has an ultra fast acting, powerful sublingual tab that was delayed by FDA for more data(?). I see that pathway as more viable then risking lung tissue for further drug development. I won't mind being wrong- still have some MNKD.
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Post by pmikeks on Dec 5, 2014 9:29:44 GMT -5
I have been in Mannkind at least three year. Bought at $4 and more at $2+ then had average of $3 something. Stock rose to about $8 and I panicked in one of the first flash crashes.and sold for a small profit. I think it was after announcing phase 3 results. By the time I got bought back in a few hours later it was above where I sold it. Very frustrating lesson learned. I've continued to add since then some on dips and some @$9 after FDA approval thinking the initial decline was a consolidation. I've been frustrated and at times vocal about Matt and management bubbling over themselves at conference after conference saying nothing pertinent and at times stupid statements but they have continued to make progress despite sit backs. The exception was when they presented at ADCOM. Recently we have had a couple conference presentations (has almost always been bad news), significant insider selling and now the scandal about kickbacks at Sanofi. None of these are a boost to PPS. The kickback scandal if proven, doesn't invoke MNKD or their deal with SNY. Yes they may get hit a little by the mudslinging but SNY isn't going away and neither is their deal. I believe in Afrezza and the life changes on the horizon for both types of diabetes. I'm type 2 and take Lantus and look forward to the day of no more Lantus pen sticks. Anybody who says needles don't hurt is full of crap. If people don't believe that Afrezza is a game changer they should get out but I'm willing to bet they will regret it and getting back in will be a lot more expensive then my selling at $5 and buying back in at $6. P.S. I love both Afrezza and Technosphere but I'll still poke at management when they say and do stupid stuff.
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 5, 2014 10:05:31 GMT -5
[thoughts to take your mind off the share price]
"I see that pathway as more viable then risking lung tissue for further drug development"
I see this comment as a sign one of the primary misconceptions about the human body that will be debunked in our time. That is that the lungs are a pristine sanctuary that should be protected from everything but the cleanest air. But out in the wilderness what is clean air? It is filled with pollen, dust, fine particles and microbes.
Yes, cigarette smoking causes cancer and more, but that pack-a-day habit has lead us to believe that breathing anything but the "purest" air is harmful.
We discovered bacterial infections and the antibiotics that cure us, and so naively thought that bacteria are bad and anti-bacterial anything is good. Now we know that we host giant bacterial colonies that are essential to our well-being. One of the misunderstandings about the body was the dichotomy between the sterile insides of our bodies and the parts of our bodies that are exposed to the environment and host these essential bacteria including our entire digestive tract and the lungs. Here is Wikipedia on just what is living in our healthy lungs.
"The lung microbiome or pulmonary microbial community is a complex variety of microbes found in the lower respiratory tract particularly on the mucus layer and the epithelial surfaces. These microbes include bacteria, yeasts, viruses and bacteriophages. The bacterial part of microbiome has been addressed more deeply. It consists of 9 core genera: Prevotella, Sphingomonas, Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter, Fusobacterium, Megasphaera, Veillonella, Staphylococcus, and Streptococcus.[1][2][3] They are aerobes as well as anaerobes and aerotolerant bacteria. The microbial communities are highly variable in particular individuals and compose of about 140 distinct families. The bronchial tree for instance contains a mean of 2000 bacterial genomes per cm2 surface. The harmful or potentially harmful bacteria are also detected routinely in respiratory specimens. The most significant are Moraxella catarrhalis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. They are known to cause respiratory disorders under particular conditions namely if the human immune system is impaired. The mechanism, by which they persist in the lower airways in healthy state, is unknown."
This is another reason that I believe Afrezza and technosphere may represent the beginning of a new era in medical treatment. There is nothing inherently dangerous about breathing in more than filtered air. I smell the flowers and breathe in the aroma of baking bread, but at what cost to my lungs? None, I think.
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Post by afrezzamiracle on Dec 5, 2014 12:10:20 GMT -5
Ezrasfund, your post about the human lungs was a thing of beauty! Thanks for adding your comments to the discussion.
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Post by bighaus89 on Dec 5, 2014 12:34:34 GMT -5
It's amazing to me the negativity and uncertainty(albeit bear raids have a deal to do with it) in MNKD RIGHT before sales start. *Queue cliche inspirational quote* "It's always darkest before the dawn."
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