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Post by hankscorpio7 on Dec 5, 2014 14:04:08 GMT -5
Ezrasfund,
yes, the lungs can get dirty. As for the bread- evolution has provided us with mucosa lined passages and cilia to clean the tract. Problem that can arise is when we make particles small enough to beat this system. If certain medications can destroy stomach lining, imagine what the wrong combination can do to the lungs. I hope MNKD has a wide array of prospects for Technosphere- but it seems more like a fall back if Afrezza fails. I could see inhaling vitamins or anti-oxidants as interesting but statins, Viagra, ibuprofen- why risk it? Then the money involved for testing and generic competition with the regular version- no premium unless superior performance.. Delivery through the skin patches, sublingual, injections- lot of hurdles.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 5, 2014 16:05:17 GMT -5
There is no one on this board that wishes to admit defeat. Unless you are a cheerleader, you are not welcome. Yes, this investment has so far proven to be a mistake. My timeline now is 10 plus years. Even the victories have proven to not be profitable. I honestly do not know why. I am sorry, but I do not agree. I guess two or three years down the road one could be ready to admit defeat if MNKD's share price is still dragging at the same levels. To do so right before commercialization of Afrezza starts and before the company announces future uses for Technosphere is, in my humble opinion, not the smartest play in the book. We all have our timelines and expectations, but allowing despair to set in because MNKD did not turn into the get-rich-quick-scheeme that some might have believe it was seems to me not the best way to manage an investment. If in the future this statement comes to bite me in the rear, I would have to humbly accept I was wrong, but the race is not over yet, as a matter of fact it is just starting. Just for the record, regardless of when you bought your shares, it has only been a few months since Afrezza was approved by the FDA and MNKD signed a partnership with Sanofi. Again, not years, but only months. I believe that in all those previous years seeking FDA approval Mnkd came very close to bankruptcy more than once. They have had to striped the company from everything and anything that was not Afrezza related and picking up again is not something that can be done in a few weeks or months. However, logic alone dictates that the potential of Technosphere is enormous. As for Afrezza, I truly believe it is a better product from which, if not all, many diabetics will be able to benefit, so even if the expectations are overbuild and Afrezza has a slow start, once it is approved and introduced in Europe, Japan, China, and South America, the steady source of revenue will be there for many years to come, regardless of what other solutions come to the market, of course, short of a total cure. I should end up saying that all this is just in MHO of course and that I do not wish in anyway to engage in a pissing contest about MNKD future. My only advise, to my self and others, is "if you truly have stopped believing in your investment, move on". Happy holidays and best luck to all.
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Post by Chris-C on Dec 6, 2014 10:25:14 GMT -5
I've been sitting on this stock for three years waiting for the next big event to take this stock north. While the rest of my portfolio has been on a tear this stock has been a complete pooch! When I look at where my portfolio could have been if I had invested MNKD money into my other holdings I have lost significant dollars by holding onto MNKD. It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY the management team has prolonged if not eliminated the potential for diabetics that need and want this technology access, forget the money, these guy's should be ashamed. It's very apparent that SNY gave MNKD 150M to control it, not to sell it and they're never gonna buy MNKD. Look at the structure of the Milestones, the only way MNKD gets these Milestone payments is if sales occur, SNY controls the sales, no sales no milestone payments. This was 150 M spent to keep someone else from interrupting their true agenda. As hard as it is to accept, I have come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt" and it's time to get out and invest my money in a company that deserves it. This is a very sad day for me however I would encourage the rest of you to really put your emotions aside and see this for what it really is. Jury Your post certainly elicited a range of reactions from veterans and newbies alike, some of which were compassionate and others combative. My assumption is that you are letting off steam in your frustration that the share price hasn't performed as well as you wanted. I've been investing for 15 years, and I learn another lesson everyday. But one takeaway I have gained that has been useful is the need for patience and due diligence. If you believe in a company, its aims, its products and its management, and the company has sufficient capital to execute its plan barring black swan events; then you make a decision to invest, set a timeframe, and try not to watch the share price on a daily basis. What matters is the long term, and with biotech stocks, the only tested and proven approach is to be patient and vigilant. MNKD has delivered, despite more than their fair share of bad breaks and market miscreants. The company is not a Wall Street darling, it has had to increase its shares outstanding in order to raise capital for FDA required studies. it has a product that appears to the uninformed to be nothing but a second generation cousin to an inhaled product that was a dismal market failure; and the company's decision to change inhalers without providing sufficient bioequivalence data in an FDA resubmission was ill advised (a poorly calculated and costly risk). These facts conspire to create a market impression that works against the current share price, gives tailwind to short sided investors, and frustrates new investors who think the share price should be higher given the potential of the company's lead product Afrezza. I have a 100K stake in the company at this point (done over 5 years) and am tempted to invest more (even though overall I am technically about even at the current share price). It doesn't matter, because the potential of the first product has not yet been tested in the market place and will not be truly known for another year or so, and the value of the technology for other applications is unknown. Truly, if you want quick riches, you are likely to be disappointed in the stock market, especially in this sector. My advice is to do your own due diligence, avoid buying on margin or investing more than you can afford to lose, and to talk to investors you trust. I think there are many wise investors on this board (which is better than any other Mankind board, to be sure); but the boards, and online investment information website, are chock full of people who will mess with your mind and who have an agenda. I won't encourage you to act one way or another with your investment. I will say that I often wonder about people who exit their positions and post about it, though. Why bother? If I were incllned to capitulate, I'd have done so many times before today, and chances are I would have then just moved on, hoping the experience created a useful lesson. Good luck to you. Chris C
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 7, 2014 0:20:26 GMT -5
It's amazing to me the negativity and uncertainty(albeit bear raids have a deal to do with it) in MNKD RIGHT before sales start. *Queue cliche inspirational quote* "It's always darkest before the dawn." That about sums it up. Several interesting thoughts on this thread. Reading through Chris-C, I started pondering ... am I doing a Contrarian with MNKD? It would seem so. I certainly won't sell right before this goes to market. It is difficult for me to imagine someone doing this.
I still believe Afrezza and TI are excellent inventions with strong market opportunity. And I have seen MNKD the company deliver. (If not on PR.) And while generally I could completely imagine BP trying to contain an upstart like MNKD, I don't see the motivation in this case. Its not competition, and they will reap the benefits, as others have noted.
What I don't trust or have confidence in now is the market. Nor the designated institutions to monitor it. While many here say 'only sales matter' - I wish I had the faith in that. I'm seeing too many companies get hit on positive quarterly results. I'm not seeing the connection between pps and actual business results working anymore. In my dark fear before the dawn, I imagine that sales will go through the roof. And quickly at that. But it won't make any difference at all. Just like FDA, supplier, partner, milestones, etc. Has there ever been a company making revenue with a negative (0) P/E - where the pps is worth far less than the company's bank account? Is that even possible?
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 7, 2014 8:49:27 GMT -5
How many times have you read the boilerplate "past performance does not guarantee future results..."? [paraphrased]
Every investor takes action based on his/her own risk tolerance... whether it's due diligence, professional advise or "gut" feelings.
But in the starkest terms, it comes down to this: never invest more than you are willing to lose.
I think MannKind has the best risk/reward profile of any stock I have ever considered buying. Ever!
However, there have been powerful forces arrayed against this company, who see Technosphere as a very real threat to them. MannKind has survived only because of the tenacity of its CEO and resident philanthropist. I'd be a fool if I didn't at least acknowledge that there still are threats to MannKind's survival.
Many folks scoff at the idea of a triple-digit share price. I do not. That said, however, I will also state, based on my research, that I am prepared to lose every penny of this particular investment.
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Post by spiro on Dec 7, 2014 10:19:05 GMT -5
Disclosure, Spiro is not Mnholdem, But Spiro could have written the exact same post. Spiro believes that there are even more powerful forces working with MNKD that will make Afrezza a blockbuster drug. This force behind MNKD is the millions upon millions of Diabetics who will benefit from Afrezza. The only unanswered question for Spiro is, what is the percentage of these out of control Diabetics who will be smart enough to use or demand Afrezza. Spiro thinks that at least 15 to 20% of these Diabetics will be smart enough to eventually try Afrezza. BTW, at current capacity, MNKD can only treat less than 1% of those smart Diabetics. Spiro also thinks that some of the investors who are shorting MNKD are also Diabetic and will be soon using Afrezza. Now that will be a huge pill to swallow.
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Post by savzak on Dec 7, 2014 12:29:20 GMT -5
Q2U said "In my dark fear before the dawn, I imagine that sales will go through the roof. And quickly at that. But it won't make any difference at all. Just like FDA, supplier, partner, milestones, etc."
I've been schooled in the degree to which market forces can discount good news. But it would defy the most fundamental rules of economics and human nature if soaring sales growth did not engender buying pressure and a quickly rising PPS. If this scenario does take place it will have to be the result of a massive and concerted effort to manipulate the share price. The resources required to achieve this would be huge and wouldn't last very long. Any downward manipulation on soaring sales will be very short lived and would likely present one of the best risk/reward opportunity any of us will ever see.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 7, 2014 20:29:19 GMT -5
Spiro, the way you refer to yourself in the third person - I'm guessing you're a retired professional athlete! Posing as a mild-mannered member of academia, as you scour message boards looking for shorts to expose and dismantle.
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Post by spiro on Dec 7, 2014 22:20:30 GMT -5
Damn Baba, you are good, but Spiro is more like the waterway in that Adam Sandler movie. Spiro would look at the quarterback and envision him being short MNKD and then charge at him. If anyone says something bad about MNKD, they immediately become Spiro's enemy. Spiro also told me, that if he ends up in Siberia when this thing is all over, he will spend most of his time making snowmen in Al Mann's likeness and then beat the crap out of them.
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 8, 2014 1:05:25 GMT -5
Q2U said "In my dark fear before the dawn, I imagine that sales will go through the roof. And quickly at that. But it won't make any difference at all. Just like FDA, supplier, partner, milestones, etc." I've been schooled in the degree to which market forces can discount good news. But it would defy the most fundamental rules of economics and human nature if soaring sales growth did not engender buying pressure and a quickly rising PPS. If this scenario does take place it will have to be the result of a massive and concerted effort to manipulate the share price. The resources required to achieve this would be huge and wouldn't last very long. Any downward manipulation on soaring sales will be very short lived and would likely present one of the best risk/reward opportunity any of us will ever see. True. But I suggest that with what - 83m short now? - at this stage with the milestones met and the timeline to launch, the manipulation to suppress is already remarkable. And clearly with that level of investment already sunk in, they would have the motivation to continue suppress. I can only hope that following the greed, when they decide to reverse course, it'll be like a light switch turning on a Super Nova.
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Post by lyric14882 on Dec 24, 2014 0:30:32 GMT -5
PBYI AGIO
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