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Post by jurystillout on Dec 4, 2014 16:56:09 GMT -5
I've been sitting on this stock for three years waiting for the next big event to take this stock north. While the rest of my portfolio has been on a tear this stock has been a complete pooch! When I look at where my portfolio could have been if I had invested MNKD money into my other holdings I have lost significant dollars by holding onto MNKD. It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY the management team has prolonged if not eliminated the potential for diabetics that need and want this technology access, forget the money, these guy's should be ashamed.
It's very apparent that SNY gave MNKD 150M to control it, not to sell it and they're never gonna buy MNKD. Look at the structure of the Milestones, the only way MNKD gets these Milestone payments is if sales occur, SNY controls the sales, no sales no milestone payments. This was 150 M spent to keep someone else from interrupting their true agenda. As hard as it is to accept, I have come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt" and it's time to get out and invest my money in a company that deserves it. This is a very sad day for me however I would encourage the rest of you to really put your emotions aside and see this for what it really is.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2014 17:17:45 GMT -5
What is Sanofi's agenda that you seem to indicate you understand with your perceived lack of "cloud of emotion"? Is 65% of the profit on Afrezza something that is unattractive for SNY to pursue?
Giving up on a stock can be based on emotion just as much as believing in it. If part of your thesis for buying MNKD or holding was based on belief that Sanofi would buy MNKD then you've obviously suffered from emotional distortions in the past. Mannkind has always indicated that they aren't in the market to sell the company. Mannkind has great potential with technosphere opportunities that probably deserve retaining flexibility of not being tied to a particular large pharma marketing organization. Most that know much about Al, realize that putting his name on this company is likely a strong indication he wanted it to be a namesake long after he is gone.
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Post by mrhaigs on Dec 4, 2014 17:33:35 GMT -5
So sick of hearing about TI potential. Come on man! Management has bumbled this thing so bad from submission #1 to the deal with Sanofi. Sanofi is basically on the hook for absolutely nothing here. Management paints a great picture for us but as time goes by we get more and more of the details. Stop defending these guys every step of the way and demand some accountability. As shareholders you have a right to do so.
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Post by jpg on Dec 4, 2014 17:34:36 GMT -5
I've been sitting on this stock for three years waiting for the next big event to take this stock north. While the rest of my portfolio has been on a tear this stock has been a complete pooch! When I look at where my portfolio could have been if I had invested MNKD money into my other holdings I have lost significant dollars by holding onto MNKD. It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY the management team has prolonged if not eliminated the potential for diabetics that need and want this technology access, forget the money, these guy's should be ashamed. It's very apparent that SNY gave MNKD 150M to control it, not to sell it and they're never gonna buy MNKD. Look at the structure of the Milestones, the only way MNKD gets these Milestone payments is if sales occur, SNY controls the sales, no sales no milestone payments. This was 150 M spent to keep someone else from interrupting their true agenda. As hard as it is to accept, I have come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt" and it's time to get out and invest my money in a company that deserves it. This is a very sad day for me however I would encourage the rest of you to really put your emotions aside and see this for what it really is. Hi, Why would Sanofi not sell Afrezza? The financial incentives (65% of profits) certainly make it an attractive drug to sell no? This is why I was happy with the current revenue split and still think this is a long term very good deal for MNKD. Sanofi has no directly competing product (from a sales point of view) to Afrezza and Afrezza is an amazing combo drug with either Lantus or their new long acting insulin. Basically their new insulin has little real differentiation from newer long acting insulins. Studies using Afrezza and Toujeo will tie Toujeo to better diabetic management: guilt (or better outcomes in this case) by association... No other insulin then Afrezza can offer this. Afrezza is central to Sanofi's future insulin presence. As a side note I do encourage you to sell if you think management sucks as much as you think they do. Investing in a company when you think management sucks is not wise and only leads to sleepless nights. As a long term investor (>7 years investor) who picked up shares all the way down to the sub 2$ range I on the contrary like management. I guess entry price point matters (although it shouldn't). The recent long sentiment reminds me of the time Mannkind was in the below 2$ territory and then not to long after that everyone loved MNKD. I think the shorts have succeeded in making all longs nervous at every turn of events. We now fear every 'HR Diane' selling, conference call etc. When longs are this nervous and trowing in the towel it usually means we are near a bottom. This being said I do think they could invest a little in PR... JPG |
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Post by jpg on Dec 4, 2014 17:40:46 GMT -5
So sick of hearing about TI potential. Come on man! Management has bumbled this thing so bad from submission #1 to the deal with Sanofi. Sanofi is basically on the hook for absolutely nothing here. Management paints a great picture for us but as time goes by we get more and more of the details. Stop defending these guys every step of the way and demand some accountability. As shareholders you have a right to do so. They have delivered on every milestone they said they would reach. For biotech MNKD has done rather well overall... Yes there was one big stumble at the 2nd CRL but few biotech's could have survived that. Thankfully Mann is a stubborn guy. I am certainly not sick of hearing of Tis potential. It is only getting started. My time frame is in years not days or weeks though. A February announcement about TI sound great to me. JPG |
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Post by afrezzamiracle on Dec 4, 2014 17:54:15 GMT -5
What is your real motivation jurystillout? Sounds like it's time for you to sell and move on. In my opinion you'll be doing so right before this stock starts a long term ascent, and from the tone of your post I kind of like it that way!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2014 17:56:12 GMT -5
So sick of hearing about TI potential. Come on man! Management has bumbled this thing so bad from submission #1 to the deal with Sanofi. Sanofi is basically on the hook for absolutely nothing here. Management paints a great picture for us but as time goes by we get more and more of the details. Stop defending these guys every step of the way and demand some accountability. As shareholders you have a right to do so. With regard to Sanofi, what are we holding the Mannkind team accountable for? Is it crafting a deal where Sanofi has no compelling interest to perform and sell or is it for giving too much of the profits to Sanofi? Logically these two things are mutually exclusive. It seems I've heard complaints on both ends of this spectrum, which may mean Mannkind has struck a pretty level balance of getting a reasonable amount of the profit while creating enough incentive for Sanofi to work hard to maximize the overall size of the pie. You may be sick of hearing about TI potential while others complain about us not hearing enough of that from the company. Personally I very much look forward to hearing much more about it in coming months. |
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 4, 2014 19:36:18 GMT -5
I've been sitting on this stock for three years waiting for the next big event to take this stock north. While the rest of my portfolio has been on a tear this stock has been a complete pooch! When I look at where my portfolio could have been if I had invested MNKD money into my other holdings I have lost significant dollars by holding onto MNKD. It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY the management team has prolonged if not eliminated the potential for diabetics that need and want this technology access, forget the money, these guy's should be ashamed. It's very apparent that SNY gave MNKD 150M to control it, not to sell it and they're never gonna buy MNKD. Look at the structure of the Milestones, the only way MNKD gets these Milestone payments is if sales occur, SNY controls the sales, no sales no milestone payments. This was 150 M spent to keep someone else from interrupting their true agenda. As hard as it is to accept, I have come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt" and it's time to get out and invest my money in a company that deserves it. This is a very sad day for me however I would encourage the rest of you to really put your emotions aside and see this for what it really is. Lots of stuff going on in that post, jury: "It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY." You say that with such authority and certainty, surely one as sharp in the market as you (the "rest of my portfolio has been on a tear") would have sold the minute MNKD mis-managed the first go around with the FDA, I mean, who needs dumb management, when there are so many better places to put your money. But even if you hadn't sold then, you surely would have sold the moment you read the details about the "bone-headed partnership with SNY," right? After all, as soon as you saw that deal with SNY, you realized that the $150 million was just so SNY could control Afrezza, plus if you had sold then, you'd have gotten a very nice price. Heck, with that level of certainty about SNY's true agenda, you should have not only sold immediately, but shorted it as well. Plus, there were many other times you could have sold along the way, cuz MNKD surely has done a bunch of dumb stuff between the first go around with the FDA and the bone-headed deal with SNY, right? But only today you've come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt?" It's taken you way too long to come to that realization. When I look where my portfolio would have been if I'd kept my 3000 shares of ISRG many years ago, I figure, "that's okay" cuz I would have just blown it on MNKD!! |
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Post by lyric14882 on Dec 4, 2014 22:04:47 GMT -5
There is no one on this board that wishes to admit defeat. Unless you are a cheerleader, you are not welcome. Yes, this investment has so far proven to be a mistake. My timeline now is 10 plus years. Even the victories have proven to not be profitable. I honestly do not know why.
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 4, 2014 22:18:20 GMT -5
We must be close to capitulation when longs get all pissed off and decide to throw in the towel. We might see a little more pain over the next couple of weeks which will be the final blow off where the weaker longs get spooked out and sell. Launch is next month and a Technosphere deal is the following month. I will never get tired of hearing about the potential of Technosphere. Al Mann told me personally that he thinks the Cricket for migraine pain will be bigger than Afrezza. I can't wait to see it come to fruition.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2014 22:23:50 GMT -5
Lyric... There was one reply that was distinctly unwelcoming to jurystillout. Questioning what he posts is something that one should expect. I would prefer that he explain himself rather than leave. I always try to question reasonably politely and I direct my questions at people I feel are being unfairly critical as well as those I feel a pushing wishful thinking, such as various speculated buyouts.
Do keep in mind that many here have made money on MNKD, so for them it isn't a mistake even at these prices where others are underwater. I'm right about break even with a lot of it being purchased in the past year.
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Dec 4, 2014 22:28:19 GMT -5
Newbie on this board as well. I had same feeling today, but different reasons, and closed majority of positions. Got crushed last CRL but MNKD calls made it all back and they brought friends in the years since. My best trade in 15 years.
The mistake does not lie with management. Reading message boards where people start shooting out numbers of where SP should be, the optimist deep down in all of us believes in an average of those numbers. The market cap tells a different story. This is a novel approach but a very crowded marketplace- it won't trade at a premium until sales dictate. The mistake lies with those that hold out for the dream instead of taking a very nice return.
MNKD has a lot ahead of it and I see plenty of entry points. But this Sanofi scandal might not blow over. The CEO at time of MNKD deal was fired and had dealings with these kickbacks. Can't find $1 Billion? If I was MNKD, I would request a look at the books. A sales force that was using kickbacks- changes deal. 35% looks like a rip off now. If MNKD doesn't, the doubters will have a field day because it means MNKD has a weak hand- there were no other bidders. Doesn't help matters that insiders are selling instead of buying- even if scheduled. Top it off you have tax selling for end of year, rough... For now, dead money until at least end of Feb. Technosphere is interesting but hard to risk lung tissue when sublingual uptake is on the rise.
Nice board here. Person who made that call on an open something in the mid 4s- thought they were crazy when MNKD was in the 8s. If that holds, amazing analysis.
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Post by obamayoumama on Dec 4, 2014 22:32:27 GMT -5
I've been sitting on this stock for three years waiting for the next big event to take this stock north. While the rest of my portfolio has been on a tear this stock has been a complete pooch! When I look at where my portfolio could have been if I had invested MNKD money into my other holdings I have lost significant dollars by holding onto MNKD. It's a shame that product that has this much potential could be so severally mis-managed, from the first go around with the FDA to this bone headed partnership with SNY the management team has prolonged if not eliminated the potential for diabetics that need and want this technology access, forget the money, these guy's should be ashamed. It's very apparent that SNY gave MNKD 150M to control it, not to sell it and they're never gonna buy MNKD. Look at the structure of the Milestones, the only way MNKD gets these Milestone payments is if sales occur, SNY controls the sales, no sales no milestone payments. This was 150 M spent to keep someone else from interrupting their true agenda. As hard as it is to accept, I have come to the realization that "this dog will never hunt" and it's time to get out and invest my money in a company that deserves it. This is a very sad day for me however I would encourage the rest of you to really put your emotions aside and see this for what it really is. You somehow think that Al Mann and his team of attorneys would sign an agreement that would allow SNY NOT to put a full effort into marketing AFREZZA. Not likely. SNY needs to replace the lost revenue coming next year from Lantus. SNY's sales team will have AFREZZA to make their sales quotas. Do you really believe that there will be no more affrezzausers that won't be telling the diabetic community about the virtues of AFREZZA? SNY knows what it takes to have the 1 diabetes drug. Given that AFREZZA has a much larger group of diabetics it can help over Lantus, exactly why do you believe SNY won't put an effort to market AFREZZA? |
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Post by robsacher on Dec 4, 2014 22:34:22 GMT -5
jury, It's very hard to believe you. If you were truly three years long on MannKind, you would already have worked through all your doubts and have made your peace with the bear raids, the short FUD, the manipulation and the various difficulties along the way. I went through ADCOM and cried my tears of joy with the 27-1 vote for approval. I waited through the months prior to the FDA decision and cried my tears of joy when that 3:30PM Friday announcement was made in that last week of June. I jumped for joy when Sanofi was the chosen partner. They were my first choice and they are the best choice. Man up jury. Man up. You want to bug out now? No one is stopping you but no one here is going to jump with you. Not with all these years of effort behind us. Not with Afrezza just weeks away from entering the market. Not with a MannKind announcement coming in regard to Technospehere and a possible new partnership. If I die, I'll die defending this spot. Right here. This spot is mine, metaphorically speaking, of course...  |
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 4, 2014 22:50:53 GMT -5
I had to go back and look at the charts to be sure. Three years ago the price was in the mid $2 range. It went to $8 a year and a half later. Not good enough for you? It went to $10 twelve months after that. If you didn't take some profits after a 300% gain (known in the parlance as a 4 bagger) your faith must have been mighty strong. And now? MNKD is slowly, steadily walking the long road to commercialization. Success can never be certain until it is achieved, but you pay your money and you take your choice.
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