Post by savzak on Jan 1, 2015 12:50:34 GMT -5
Happy New Year everyone.
I’ve been invested in MNKD since 2008. As a result, I’ve seen a lot and been disappointed many times over. What comes with such a long history of repeatedly unfulfilled expectations is a tendency to adjust expectations going forward in order to avoid the disappointment. I've certainly done that at times. Once I spent the better part of a year pretty much avoiding any message board. During that time a barely monitored the stock price.
I’ve seen a lot written recently by longs who are tempering their expectations for 2015. It’s completely understandable and in fact, they may well be correct. It may well be the 4th Q or even the first half of 2016 before we are able to shake the grip of the short hold on the share price.
I’m certainly not predicting any particular outcomes during 2015 here, but I do think there are very real and objective reasons to question whether the shorts’ hold on the share price will be so strong going forward. I really do think the launch has the capacity to change the trading landscape in MNKD substantially. Here are the reasons:
1. Like it or not, for years MNKD has been the focus of a very small group of investors, long and short. The launch will expose Afrezza and thus MNKD to many, many more potential investors.
2. Patients. Within a very short time after launch there will be a great number of consumers who will know far more about the real world application of Afrezza. It isn’t a stretch to imagine a few dozen Afrezzauser clones publicly praising Afrezza in any number of public forums. Each user and all of his/her family members and friends will be potential new long investors.
3. Health care professionals. Hundreds of new doctors, nurses and pharmacists will be learning about Afrezza for the first time. They’ll all be getting the anectdotal information and feedback from patients that we’ve so often sought here on this board. They’ll be getting that information in spades. Each of them as well as their families and friends represent potential new investors in MNKD.
4. Pharmaceutical reps. These folks run into each other repeatedly in docs offices. Many of them are well networked having worked for other companies in the past. Any positive buzz about Afrezza will not escape them. Each of them as well as their families and friends represent potential new investors in MNKD.
These are just the factors that may come into play as a result of the launch's very early stages. Fast forward a few short weeks and information concerning sales will start to circulate. Some will be reliable, some not so much. But the potential for positive buzz is certainly there.
None of this is meant to discount the fact that short side will certainly be hard at work. They aren’t going to stand silent. But the potential influx of new investors shouldn’t be discounted when we assume that the shorts will remain in control until good and increasing sales numbers develop over several quarters.
The launch, the marketing of Afrezza and the fact that revenue will finally be booked all have a great potential to change the context in which MNKD is traded. In my several years invested in MNKD, we've had some very good news events but we've never had events which have the potential to awaken so many thousands of new investors to prospects for the company. I know the cliché, "the past is prologue". I’m not wildely optimisitc that things will change significantly in the short term. My point is just that the launch has a lot of potential to change the trading game and change it relatively quickly. We shouldn’t lose sight of that.
I’ve been invested in MNKD since 2008. As a result, I’ve seen a lot and been disappointed many times over. What comes with such a long history of repeatedly unfulfilled expectations is a tendency to adjust expectations going forward in order to avoid the disappointment. I've certainly done that at times. Once I spent the better part of a year pretty much avoiding any message board. During that time a barely monitored the stock price.
I’ve seen a lot written recently by longs who are tempering their expectations for 2015. It’s completely understandable and in fact, they may well be correct. It may well be the 4th Q or even the first half of 2016 before we are able to shake the grip of the short hold on the share price.
I’m certainly not predicting any particular outcomes during 2015 here, but I do think there are very real and objective reasons to question whether the shorts’ hold on the share price will be so strong going forward. I really do think the launch has the capacity to change the trading landscape in MNKD substantially. Here are the reasons:
1. Like it or not, for years MNKD has been the focus of a very small group of investors, long and short. The launch will expose Afrezza and thus MNKD to many, many more potential investors.
2. Patients. Within a very short time after launch there will be a great number of consumers who will know far more about the real world application of Afrezza. It isn’t a stretch to imagine a few dozen Afrezzauser clones publicly praising Afrezza in any number of public forums. Each user and all of his/her family members and friends will be potential new long investors.
3. Health care professionals. Hundreds of new doctors, nurses and pharmacists will be learning about Afrezza for the first time. They’ll all be getting the anectdotal information and feedback from patients that we’ve so often sought here on this board. They’ll be getting that information in spades. Each of them as well as their families and friends represent potential new investors in MNKD.
4. Pharmaceutical reps. These folks run into each other repeatedly in docs offices. Many of them are well networked having worked for other companies in the past. Any positive buzz about Afrezza will not escape them. Each of them as well as their families and friends represent potential new investors in MNKD.
These are just the factors that may come into play as a result of the launch's very early stages. Fast forward a few short weeks and information concerning sales will start to circulate. Some will be reliable, some not so much. But the potential for positive buzz is certainly there.
None of this is meant to discount the fact that short side will certainly be hard at work. They aren’t going to stand silent. But the potential influx of new investors shouldn’t be discounted when we assume that the shorts will remain in control until good and increasing sales numbers develop over several quarters.
The launch, the marketing of Afrezza and the fact that revenue will finally be booked all have a great potential to change the context in which MNKD is traded. In my several years invested in MNKD, we've had some very good news events but we've never had events which have the potential to awaken so many thousands of new investors to prospects for the company. I know the cliché, "the past is prologue". I’m not wildely optimisitc that things will change significantly in the short term. My point is just that the launch has a lot of potential to change the trading game and change it relatively quickly. We shouldn’t lose sight of that.
