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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2015 14:11:25 GMT -5
Regarding today's short report, up or down, it's likely going to take a few quarters of robust sales, isn't it, to convince short interests that it's time to exit their strategy.
Unless sales figures really explode, I don't see any catalysts in the near time. The application for Centralized Authorization in Europe would be very positive, but it will take 7-9 months and the application hasn't even been filed with the EMA yet. Same with Japan.
If sales do explode, and the media makes hay of it, then the shortage of available shares might lead to a panic, and subsequent rally in stock prices, but it seems just as likely that there will be a gradual run up and an orderly exodus by short interests over the next few quarters.
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Post by jpg on Feb 25, 2015 14:14:58 GMT -5
What are the pros and cons to loaning out your shares? I have received a call from Fidelity (they never called me before)and asked if I wanted to loan my shares of MNKD out. Loan them out and you make money while helping temporarily keep the share price down. With the profit buy more Mannkind shares and everyone (except shorts...) wins. |
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Post by jpg on Feb 25, 2015 14:19:51 GMT -5
It's really gonna take sales to convince the shorts, isn't it! I think it is something else at this point. I speculate that this is more of a short term survival strategy by some short investors. No hard (or soft...) intel to back this up though... As for the short interest which is about to come out (from 2 weeks ago I would guess it will be down a few million shares as 2 weeks ago the stock price was going up. If the SI was up again 2 weeks ago that would be awesome as a rising price regardless of increasing SI would suggest some big players buying all the shorts can throw at them. |
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Post by alethea on Feb 25, 2015 14:26:35 GMT -5
Short interest report comes out this afternoon. Any guesses?
Since short interest is to be reported as of a Feb 13 Settlement Date, I think short interest will be down 2 or 3 million shares. The recent intra-day high of 7.88 was reached on Feb 10 (settled on Feb 13?) with a daily volume of 11.7 million shares. Two of the three preceding days had volumes of 12.4 and 16.5 M shares along with a strong rise in the PPS. My guess is short interest of 77.5 M as of Feb 13.
However, starting with the next trading day, Feb 11, it sure seems like the Hedgies have been shorting the ever-loving heck out of it. So I would guess that short interest is back over 80 M at this moment. Let's see if I should have listened to Mark Twain and not opened my mouth, and thus not proving their suspicions of me being a fool to be correct  . |
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 25, 2015 14:42:45 GMT -5
< 3 Million MORE SI...seems shorts worked hard to drive price down from $7.80 range...
Since short interest is to be reported as of a Feb 13 Settlement Date, I think short interest will be down 2 or 3 million shares. The recent intra-day high of 7.88 was reached on Feb 10 (settled on Feb 13?) with a daily volume of 11.7 million shares. Two of the three preceding days had volumes of 12.4 and 16.5 M shares along with a strong rise in the PPS. My guess is short interest of 77.5 M as of Feb 13.
However, starting with the next trading day, Feb 11, it sure seems like the Hedgies have been shorting the ever-loving heck out of it. So I would guess that short interest is back over 80 M at this moment. Let's see if I should have listened to Mark Twain and not opened my mouth, and thus not proving their suspicions of me being a fool to be correct . I forgot that the cutoff for this was right after the run up, so you're probably right about there being less SI as of that date. And again, you right that the amount went right back up in the last week or so as the price dropped about $1.25. |
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Post by kc on Feb 25, 2015 14:49:30 GMT -5
Originally I was not for loaning out my shares but then again its a way for you to cover your cost of funds with a return until the PPS goes up on MannKind. So if somebody wants to pay you 24% interest since they are collecting 29% why not take the money?
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below is a good read from they YMB. Not sure of the credibility but worth reading.
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Post by alethea on Feb 25, 2015 16:07:48 GMT -5
Since short interest is to be reported as of a Feb 13 Settlement Date, I think short interest will be down 2 or 3 million shares. The recent intra-day high of 7.88 was reached on Feb 10 (settled on Feb 13?) with a daily volume of 11.7 million shares. Two of the three preceding days had volumes of 12.4 and 16.5 M shares along with a strong rise in the PPS. My guess is short interest of 77.5 M as of Feb 13.
However, starting with the next trading day, Feb 11, it sure seems like the Hedgies have been shorting the ever-loving heck out of it. So I would guess that short interest is back over 80 M at this moment. Let's see if I should have listened to Mark Twain and not opened my mouth, and thus not proving their suspicions of me being a fool to be correct . Oops, Nevermind! WOW! 86M. I am shocked. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 25, 2015 17:02:37 GMT -5
86M??? OK...maybe a typo? At what point is the SI going to stop going up? I'll make a (bad) guess and say we see 90M before we see 80M.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 17:22:46 GMT -5
86,000,000. Something has to give. Mann and other insiders have 140,000,000. Institutions have about 105,000,000. Float is 405,000,000, public float is probably somewhere around 160mil, and now over 50% of them are being shorted at extraordinary rates. What on earth are they looking to do?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 25, 2015 17:29:46 GMT -5
Settlement Date
| Short Interest
| Avg Daily Share Volume
| Days To Cover
| % of Float (406M)
| % of non-Mann Float (206M)
| % non Mann, non institutional (105M)
| 2/13/2015
| 86,114,829
| 9,260,731
| 9.298923
| 21.2%
| 41.8%
| 82.0%
| 1/30/2015
| 80,678,801
| 4,863,394
| 16.588991
| 19.9%
| 39.2%
| 76.8%
| 1/15/2015
| 76,855,662
| 4,475,961
| 17.170762
| 19.6%
| 37.3%
| 73.2%
| 12/31/2014
| 75,654,134
| 4,169,132
| 18.146255
| 18.6
| 36.7%
| 72.0%
|
This table does not take into account any hedge strategies, options fandangles or convertible bonds.
It also negates the 9M B0fA shares due to be returned to treasury that are in the current short interest calculation.
It may be safe to consider with the Warrants and convertibles that there are closer to 450M out, but that the percentage of ownership by Dr. Mann, Institutions and shorts remains approximately the same percentage.
Enjoy,
OOG
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Post by mdcenter61 on Feb 25, 2015 17:56:49 GMT -5
Damn, OOG! Never really thought of it that way, but short position equivalent to 82% of retail float? No wonder interest rates to lend short are so high!!
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 25, 2015 18:00:31 GMT -5
Must remember that these short have probably go an options synthetic position so they are covered there to some degree. The warrants for 60% of a share for $2.40 are still kicking around (anyone know that count?). There is another warrant out there for 75% of a share as well, but think these may have expired (unsure). The 9M BofA shares maybe should be temporarily added to the float until they are returned as they account for 10.5% of the current short position as well.
It s going to get interesting when one of the giants blinks.
OOG
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Post by jpg on Feb 25, 2015 18:01:28 GMT -5
86 million. Wow!
This just keeps on getting more interesting... Someone will be bruised badly. Hmmm. Maybe I should reconsider giving up my clinical time just in case the shorts are smarter then we are?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 18:06:30 GMT -5
Settlement Date
| Short Interest
| Avg Daily Share Volume
| Days To Cover
| % of Float (406M)
| % of non-Mann Float (206M)
| % non Mann, non institutional (105M)
| 2/13/2015
| 86,114,829
| 9,260,731
| 9.298923
| 21.2%
| 41.8%
| 82.0%
| 1/30/2015
| 80,678,801
| 4,863,394
| 16.588991
| 19.9%
| 39.2%
| 76.8%
| 1/15/2015
| 76,855,662
| 4,475,961
| 17.170762
| 19.6%
| 37.3%
| 73.2%
| 12/31/2014
| 75,654,134
| 4,169,132
| 18.146255
| 18.6
| 36.7%
| 72.0%
|
This table does not take into account any hedge strategies, options fandangles or convertible bonds.
It also negates the 9M B0fA shares due to be returned to treasury that are in the current short interest calculation.
It may be safe to consider with the Warrants and convertibles that there are closer to 450M out, but that the percentage of ownership by Dr. Mann, Institutions and shorts remains approximately the same percentage.
Enjoy,
OOG
I think Mann is at 140 mil, not 200 mil. Changes your numbers a bit. |
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Post by kc on Feb 25, 2015 19:41:49 GMT -5
this is why perhaps MannKind or the SEC needs to take a look because perhaps there are way to many NAKED shorts in MannKind. Something does not pass the smell test Somebody needs to account for MannKind shares . . Settlement Date
| Short Interest
| Avg Daily Share Volume
| Days To Cover
| % of Float (406M)
| % of non-Mann Float (206M)
| % non Mann, non institutional (105M)
| 2/13/2015
| 86,114,829
| 9,260,731
| 9.298923
| 21.2%
| 41.8%
| 82.0%
| 1/30/2015
| 80,678,801
| 4,863,394
| 16.588991
| 19.9%
| 39.2%
| 76.8%
| 1/15/2015
| 76,855,662
| 4,475,961
| 17.170762
| 19.6%
| 37.3%
| 73.2%
| 12/31/2014
| 75,654,134
| 4,169,132
| 18.146255
| 18.6
| 36.7%
| 72.0%
|
This table does not take into account any hedge strategies, options fandangles or convertible bonds.
It also negates the 9M B0fA shares due to be returned to treasury that are in the current short interest calculation.
It may be safe to consider with the Warrants and convertibles that there are closer to 450M out, but that the percentage of ownership by Dr. Mann, Institutions and shorts remains approximately the same percentage.
Enjoy,
OOG
I think Mann is at 140 mil, not 200 mil. Changes your numbers a bit. |
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