Thirteen ($13) Max Price for MNKD

[piccolopete]

I'm Bullish on MNKD, but there's been so much dilution, and factoring the amount of debt, $13 would place a market cap on the company of $7.5B. That seems high at this point. I don't expect $13  - unless there's a direct buy out - for 2 to 3 years. 

MNKD really has only one drug. I know about the inhaleable pain med and the cancer trial.

Any partnership agreement is going to be much less lucrative than many here believe. MNKD simply has very little leverage due to their cash needs and lack of ability to market Afrezza. The presentation notes I read from SA make Matt sound like a bumbling idiot when discussing ongoing partnership discussions. MNKD's been beating the partnership drum for eons (misleading investors in this regard) and frankly, have zero credibility on this front.

Uncertainty in the marketplace favor shorts. I expect them to ram this down under $5 soon - taking out stops and triggering margin calls.

I'm sure others will bash me for this post, but I'm trying to be realistic. If MNKD had been approved last go round, there'd be about 175M share O/S instead of ~450M fully diluted, which would place my max price in the $35 range. Estimates anyway....................

[Chris]

According to you:

Less than 20 days ago and with no change in MNKD news, you state,

"What's MNKD worth, my guess is $10 per share (assuming approval)."
mnkd.proboards.com/post/869


"Criminey, I've turned into a MNKD bull. "

"IMHO, justified. I think Al Mann's "BlockBuster Drug" bravado is just that, bravado. I agree with Adam Feuerstein - the data wasn't all that impressive, and the info withheld on the Medtone arm is troubling. "
mnkd.proboards.com/user/127/recent

In this post you also say, " $13 would place a market cap on the company of $7.5B" yet a few weeks ago you say, "I think at $13 per share, including debt, MNKD will be valued at ~ $7B"

GG

[thsloppy]

You are certainly subject to your opinions. My only bashing is that you speak with little fact, example or precedent. The truth is that Biotech is the wild wild west. You never know what is going to happen and valuation is a matter of perception. I'll give you two examples to chew on...1) Gilead Sciences buys Pharmasset for $11B last year for a Phase II Hep C drug. Great potential technology in a market far smaller than MNKD. $11B for PHASE II!!! 2) Look at this years darling---Regeneron. $27B market cap for $2B in revenue. At the end of the day...trying to value these stocks early in is impossible. All I know is this...MNKD has catalysts for investors. Catalyst 1 took the stock from $2-3 range to 5-6 range...the data. 2) Catalyst 2 will be partnership or FDA approval..whichever happens first...with this, expect a run over $10. Catalyst 3...whichever didn't happen in #2 where I agree $12-15 is realistic. Catalyst 4...first year of commercialization..do we get insurance coverage..are prescribers convinced??? If MNKD checks all of these boxes, there is no reason this stock cannot be $20-30 18 months from now. If it misses a box or two...not good. FDA rejection being fatal IMHO. I'll likely sell half just before FDA. Sold Feb 14 calls for 1.15 just before data release as a hedge which was a great move. Bought back for .2. Dropped basis to $3.

[Chris]

Sept 11, 2013 15:19:01 GMT -5 thsloppy said:

You are certainly subject to your opinions. My only bashing is that you speak with little fact, example or precedent. The truth is that Biotech is the wild wild west. You never know what is going to happen and valuation is a matter of perception. I'll give you two examples to chew on...1) Gilead Sciences buys Pharmasset for $11B last year for a Phase II Hep C drug. Great potential technology in a market far smaller than MNKD. $11B for PHASE II!!! 2) Look at this years darling---Regeneron. $27B market cap for $2B in revenue. At the end of the day...trying to value these stocks early in is impossible. All I know is this...MNKD has catalysts for investors. Catalyst 1 took the stock from $2-3 range to 5-6 range...the data. 2) Catalyst 2 will be partnership or FDA approval..whichever happens first...with this, expect a run over $10. Catalyst 3...whichever didn't happen in #2 where I agree $12-15 is realistic. Catalyst 4...first year of commercialization..do we get insurance coverage..are prescribers convinced??? If MNKD checks all of these boxes, there is no reason this stock cannot be $20-30 18 months from now. If it misses a box or two...not good. FDA rejection being fatal IMHO. I'll likely sell half just before FDA. Sold Feb 14 calls for 1.15 just before data release as a hedge which was a great move. Bought back for .2. Dropped basis to $3.

Great 1st post thsloppy and valid points...

time will tell.