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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2015 16:28:05 GMT -5
I'm with Spiro. Life is better with a nice portion of Lamb. With the rain last night, I decided to have nice bowl of lamb soup at my favorite Greek place.
However, if ADA conference passes and we still don't see any signs of serious marketing effort from Sanofi, even lamb may not be enough to temper my anxiety. For now I'm willing to give them benefit of doubt that behind the scenes work such as formulary access is occurring. Hmmm... I forgot to get Baklava last night.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2015 16:34:28 GMT -5
Dreamboatcruise, actually, they did. This is from Sanofi's conference call last September 8th.... "I don't see it as a huge ramp up because something that people don't always appreciate is that even though it's insulin you still have to produce it, scale up, and make it with the devices. Those steps have to be carefully managed, it's the same for biosimilars, you can announce a biosimilar but to produce it in the quantity that you need is not something you can do overnight. So controlled launch is what we want and then expand." Fair enough... I stand corrected on the inventory issue.
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Post by spiro on Apr 8, 2015 16:43:53 GMT -5
Spiro thinks the pitfalls of diabetics not using Afrezza have been showing up for a long time now. Spiro also thinks that the parallels of some posters to OPC are starting to show. This need to be 100% correct on every issue and always have the last word has not been the norm for this board.
After all the Baklava talk, that Malomar tasted lousy after dinner tonight.
Spiro here
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Post by itrade on Apr 8, 2015 16:47:27 GMT -5
These type of threads always seem to appear when MNKD is trading at its low's. Shorts have access to this board too and we should be cautious of what is being posted and closely analyze each piece of info/stats that is given. Just a friendly reminder for all longs
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Post by brentie on Apr 8, 2015 17:04:45 GMT -5
You're making a mistake if you discourage people from posting anything negative about Mannkind. Many of us have a lot of money invested in this stock. We should hear the good and the bad, whether it's pleasant to hear or not. It can then be debated, as it was here today. That's how good financial decisions are made.
More than a few of us have been here a long time, it's normal for patience to run thin from time to time.
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Post by seanismorris on Apr 8, 2015 17:19:40 GMT -5
What it comes down to, is MNKD a Buy or a Sell this close to $5?
When MNKD bounced to $7 it was really on no news. So, MNKD for trade was a Sell...
But here we are today with MNKD approaching $5, And I said I'd be a buyer at 5$ (when it was at $7) so that's what I'm going to do.
We really don't have any new information to change that view...the slow launch (while frustrating) is already priced in.
I'm actually a bit glad that people are feeling like capitulating (no offense), It's telling me that my thesis (that MNKD is a trade this year is likely correct) it's time to buy.
It's time to break out the trading money and buy MNKD, and unless something changes, I'll be selling those shares at ~$7.
My long position (much larger) remains untouched. Why? Because we know from Spiro and others feedback that Afrezza works!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 8, 2015 21:37:19 GMT -5
You're making a mistake if you discourage people from posting anything negative about Mannkind. Many of us have a lot of money invested in this stock. We should hear the good and the bad, whether it's pleasant to hear or not. It can then be debated, as it was here today. That's how good financial decisions are made. More than a few of us have been here a long time, it's normal for patience to run thin from time to time. You're absolutely correct, you should be able to hear both sides in a debate, but then again.... seeing is believing 7 hours ago liane, jpg and 15 more like this. ReplyQuote like Post Options Post by spiro on 7 hours ago Spiro is too old not to have the patience it will take to stay long MNKD. But of course it helps to see this very morning. Without patience, some people would have quit after a week, expecting better results. Date Fasting BG Notes 2/26/15 134 2/27/15 135 Started Afrezza at breakfast 2/28/15 131 3/1/15 119 3/2/15 115 3/3/15 114 3/4/15 113 3/5/15 100 3/6/15 101 3/7/15 116 3/8/15 105 3/9/15 99 3/10/15 108 3/11/15 94 3/12/15 100 3/13/15 93 3/14/15 106 3/15/15 97 3/16/15 104 3/17/15 94 3/18/15 99 3/19/15 88 3/20/15 98 3/21/15 95 3/22/15 95 3/23/15 88 3/24/15 90 3/25/15 91 3/26/15 94 3/27/15 97 3/28/15 90 3/29/15 95 3/30/15 98 3/31/15 89 4/1/15 98 4/2/15 100 4/3/15 88 4/4/15 93 4/5/15 95 4/6/15 90 4/7/15 94 4/8/15 91 BTW, 2 hours after a nice portion of Lamb, potatoes and Greek olives for lunch, Spiro was back down to 89. Spiro says, stop the B.S. and give Sanofi and MNKD some time to get their plan executed. Spiro here Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2164/parallels-exubera-starting-show#ixzz3Wm58MCDlI believe everyone is an adult on here (as opposed to other boards) so everyone has the option of determining what they deem to be real or not regarding statements and/or opinions....I didn't respond in this thread originally because personally to me as well as others certain things are obvious so why even feed into it. The perception of whether one thinks it's a good or bad investment is spoken for in long and short interest...the question becomes why would one come on as a "current long" and then post what can be construed as FUD, is it to be altruistic in looking out for others while they say they are still long...are they having self doubts and want confirmation of their current fears or to be talked out of them? I'm sorry but I've never been in the camp that they are just looking out and showing a disinterested and selfless concern for the well-being of others, that is jmo fwiw. Btw, is it a mere coincidence that most (about four I can see) of the negative "opinions" come from avatars that have no "character" it's not like they are all newbies getting "comfortable" enough to create a self image
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 8, 2015 23:03:45 GMT -5
Seanismorris writes: "I'm actually a bit glad that people are feeling like capitulating (no offense), It's telling me that my thesis (that MNKD is a trade this year is likely correct) it's time to buy.
Exactly, I've heard tell of some capitulation, and that is a good time to start accumulating trading shares.
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Post by itrade on Apr 9, 2015 1:58:20 GMT -5
Spiro thinks the pitfalls of diabetics not using Afrezza have been showing up for a long time now. Spiro also thinks that the parallels of some posters to OPC are starting to show. This need to be 100% correct on every issue and always have the last word has not been the norm for this board. After all the Baklava talk, that Malomar tasted lousy after dinner tonight. Spiro here This is what I've been thinking as well.. Physiological warfare at its finest! I would never discourage anyone to post something negative about MNKD. Everyone on this board is entitled to their own opinion and is able express their views on certain topics, good or bad. I tend to believe there are certain individuals who have a hidden agenda behind some of their posts, but again that's just my personal opinion that I won't discuss. We have many intelligent & logical investors within this board, that provide tons of useful information to help formulate our own DD. I appreciate everyone's contributions to the board and look forward to better times in the near future! GLTA Longs
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Post by Chris-C on Apr 9, 2015 6:41:50 GMT -5
This is an interesting thread. I'm one who has learned the hard way that having patience is one of the most difficult challenges in successful investing. As with anxiety in general, there is a tendency to focus only on the concerns without paying heed to other information that can provide a more objective point of view. I do note that not much has been said about the declines in sales of Afrezza's competitors, since I think it is a reasonable proposition that many, many samples are being distributed. The next few weeks should shed some light on this.
I'm willing to give Al Mann, SNY, and MNKD executives the respect they deserve that they have a plan and are executing it. That plan is unlikely to change because investors are concerned about daily fluctuations in the share price.
As with any other investment, do your own due diligence. As for me, I'm pretty impressed with how diabetics are responding to their results. That gives me confidence that sales will continue to rise. Meantime, I'm making progress on my plan to step away from the computer and be patient attending to other things while SNY and MNKD do their work.
GLTA Chris C
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Post by kball on Apr 9, 2015 7:22:40 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if more individual wealth has been accumulated in the stock market through patience rather than intelligence. Product has been on the market 2 months. Good word of mouth. More markets opening up. More lines coming on-line. Potential new drug candidates and collaborations to be announced over next 1-2 years. Attractive takeover potential.
I like my odds. But cant tell you when or how much
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Post by me on Apr 9, 2015 8:03:23 GMT -5
Your comparisons to Exubera are like comparing apples to oranges. Exubera was a horrible product. Plain and simple. Afrezza is the next generation of inhaled insulin which is not even in the same ball park as Exubera. Compare your I-phone 6 to the 1st cell phone you had 20 years ago. (mine was as big as a shoe box and I had 30 min a month). Nobody knows better than SNY to launch a product. We are only in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning game. The scripts will come. I'm looking for what sano is doing differently with afrezza vs what pfizer did with exubera. What I'm grappling with is that the gameplan here appears identical so far in terms of a roll out as well as initial results followed by almost identical excuses as to why sales haven't taken off in the first 9 weeks (so to be 10 weeks). First of all, who's excuses?! I haven't heard or read a single statement from MNKD or SNY proffering excuses for slow sales. I think you are referring to the echo chamber you inhabit. Only MNKD and SNY have the data to understand whether Afrezza's sales are on track and I expect that the public will learn that at the appropriate (strategic) time. You may in fact be shocked when you learn of just how many patients are using Afrezza samples. Secondly, why in the world would you be concerned about Sanofi and Pfizer using the same marketing game plan? Do you really think that the product itself has nothing to do with results? Exubera was doomed because of its inherent properties, not because of a poor marketing plan. If you really think the science of the product has nothing to do with its success, then I suggest you sell MNKD and look for a stock that releases a PR every other day touting their product that solves every problem in the world. Your reasoning appears to make you better suited to that kind of investment.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 8:20:25 GMT -5
Some thought provoking rplies worthy of consideration. Thx for that.
Inventory. Thats an area that will yield significant clues for us going forward. If scripts remain low and inventory builds month after month, thats a solid data point that will get missed/ignored by many if it begins to be an issue.
While i understand thoses post that i am focusing on the negatives only, why, yes.....i am. I am only concerned now with sales, nothing else matters. With anemic sales, i dont focus on anything else but "why". In business, cash matters, sales matter, and mnkd needs both. However, so far, afrez is tracking with exubera and if that continues, we will be getting wind of an oversupply issue with mnkd this summer. i am an investor not a blind sheep. I pay attention to everything but stay focused on what matters.
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Post by nugjuice on Apr 9, 2015 8:48:36 GMT -5
In his defense I don't think he's saying Exubera is the same as Afrezza. He was pretty careful to say he knew Afrezza was better. The problem is do OTHER people know that it's better? That's the billion dollar question. Unfortunately, perception is often reality. That's great. I love reading the reviews. It reminds me why I'm invested. I think (hope) social media will play a big role. I can't see how it won't. Everyone (except me it seems) is constantly connected these days.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 9, 2015 9:08:42 GMT -5
Da "V" -
The strength of one's convictions notwithstanding, I have learned that occasionally exercising the role of "devil's advocate" can often be very beneficial in assessing whether my investment decisions merit a closer look.
I'm pretty certain that some of the traders holding onto 90 million in short interest consider Afrezza to be nothing more than a repackaged Exubera... destined to fail. I also realize that's not what you are advocating. You are simply making an observation. Many others, especially short pundits, will be making the same observation.
It's a $1 billion game and Investor Relations is not telling us their game plan. As a MNKD investor, I think that it sucks that we get so little guidance from Investor Relations. My Sergeant Schulz avatar (which I'll be retiring soon) is a sort of passive-aggressive form of protest against Matt Pfeffer, who is the most ineffective investor relations director I have ever known.
I am solidly behind this company and will remain committed to my investment for many years. I see MNKD shares having to potential of exceeding $100/share during the coming decade, but I'm not happy about the silence. Nobody is.
Holdem
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