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Post by yossarian on Apr 10, 2015 8:04:56 GMT -5
EXUBERA once belonged to Sanofi. It sold the rights to EXUBERA to PFIZER. To me this is strong evidence that SANOFI recognizes AFREZZA as a different more effective product than EXUBERA. Why else partner with MANNKIND given that they sold EXUBERA rights. www.firstwordpharma.com/node/168223#axzz3SyLZa14a Pfizer to acquire Exubera rights from sanofi-aventis (Ref: ABC News, Bloomberg, Forbes, MSNBC, SmartMoney, Pfizer) January 12th, 2006 By: Marie-Eve Laforte Pfizer announced Thursday that it signed an agreement with sanofi-aventis to obtain the full worldwide rights for experimental inhaled insulin drug Exubera. Pfizer will pay sanofi $1.3 billion for the drug's rights in a deal that includes sanofi's share of an insulin production plant located in Frankfurt, Germany. "We sought the sanofi rights to Exubera based on the strong addition it would represent to our portfolio of innovative medicines," Pfizer CEO Hank McKinnell commented. The two companies were previously in an alliance to co-market and co-promote the treatment along with Nektar Therapeutics, which developed the inhalation device and the powder formulation for Exubera. Nektar noted in a statement that its agreement with Pfizer will not change. Pfizer indicated that the drug could be the "first non-injectable" treatment for diabetes on the market and JP Morgan analyst Chris Shibutani expects it to have annual sales of more than $1.1 billion by 2009, Bloomberg reports. Exubera was recently recommended for approval in the US and the EU. An FDA decision on the drug, which was delayed for three months as the agency sought more data, is expected later in January.
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Post by yossarian on Apr 10, 2015 8:12:55 GMT -5
In the first 9 weeks EXUBERA had 401 new scripts written. In the first 9 weeks AFREZZA had 831 new scripts written. Based on IMS data. Thus so far AFREZZA has had more than DOUBLE the scripts written than EXUBERA in the same time period. There may be parallels but sales trends are not one of them.
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Post by kball on Apr 10, 2015 8:16:21 GMT -5
EXUBERA once belonged to Sanofi. It sold the rights to EXUBERA to PFIZER. To me this is strong evidence that SANOFI recognizes AFREZZA as a different more effective product than EXUBERA. Why else partner with MANNKIND given that they sold EXUBERA rights. www.firstwordpharma.com/node/168223#axzz3SyLZa14a Pfizer to acquire Exubera rights from sanofi-aventis(Ref: ABC News, Bloomberg, Forbes, MSNBC, SmartMoney, Pfizer) January 12th, 2006 By: Marie-Eve Laforte Pfizer announced Thursday that it signed an agreement with sanofi-aventis to obtain the full worldwide rights for experimental inhaled insulin drug Exubera. Pfizer will pay sanofi $1.3 billion for the drug's rights in a deal that includes sanofi's share of an insulin production plant located in Frankfurt, Germany. "We sought the sanofi rights to Exubera based on the strong addition it would represent to our portfolio of innovative medicines," Pfizer CEO Hank McKinnell commented. The two companies were previously in an alliance to co-market and co-promote the treatment along with Nektar Therapeutics, which developed the inhalation device and the powder formulation for Exubera. Nektar noted in a statement that its agreement with Pfizer will not change. Pfizer indicated that the drug could be the "first non-injectable" treatment for diabetes on the market and JP Morgan analyst Chris Shibutani expects it to have annual sales of more than $1.1 billion by 2009, Bloomberg reports. Exubera was recently recommended for approval in the US and the EU. An FDA decision on the drug, which was delayed for three months as the agency sought more data, is expected later in January. Nice example of an analyst being 'off slightly' on the numbers. Tempted to look up if he's still an analyst. But he's probably risen to executive for all i know..though perhaps blown out during the 08-09 bloodbath
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Post by esstan2001 on Apr 10, 2015 8:30:48 GMT -5
Pfizer indicated that the drug could be the "first non-injectable" treatment for diabetes on the market and JP Morgan analyst Chris Shibutani expects it to have annual sales of more than $1.1 billion by 2009, Bloomberg reports. Exubera was recently recommended for approval in the US and the EU. An FDA decision on the drug, which was delayed for three months as the agency sought more data, is expected later in January. Nice example of an analyst being 'off slightly' on the numbers. Tempted to look up if he's still an analyst. But he's probably risen to executive for all i know..though perhaps blown out during the 08-09 bloodbath But what is interesting is that his model had over $1 billion as revenue about 3 years out; along the same lines as what we see from analysts here.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 8:57:06 GMT -5
In the first 9 weeks EXUBERA had 401 new scripts written. In the first 9 weeks AFREZZA had 831 new scripts written. Based on IMS data. Thus so far AFREZZA has had more than DOUBLE the scripts written than EXUBERA in the same time period. There may be parallels but sales trends are not one of them. I contend that the sales numbers are practically identical, at the moment. Being double such a low script number, that is 831 vs 401, isn't a significant difference. If we were talking about 80k versus 40k, that's different. But at these low levels, it's all the same and the trend lines being presented in various posts are misleading at best. If you were to put some lines on the same page, like exubera sales vs afrezza sales vs the trend lines of any blockbuster drugs you like (for comparison to what a new drug does in it's first year, such as lantus, that became a blockbuster in about 5 yrs and see what the sales growth line is like for it's first year), your eyes might open up a bit.
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Post by kball on Apr 10, 2015 9:06:59 GMT -5
Nice example of an analyst being 'off slightly' on the numbers. Tempted to look up if he's still an analyst. But he's probably risen to executive for all i know..though perhaps blown out during the 08-09 bloodbath But what is interesting is that his model had over $1 billion as revenue about 3 years out; along the same lines as what we see from analysts here.That's in part why i highlighted his number.
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Post by jpg on Apr 10, 2015 9:46:06 GMT -5
In the first 9 weeks EXUBERA had 401 new scripts written. In the first 9 weeks AFREZZA had 831 new scripts written. Based on IMS data. Thus so far AFREZZA has had more than DOUBLE the scripts written than EXUBERA in the same time period. There may be parallels but sales trends are not one of them. I contend that the sales numbers are practically identical, at the moment. Being double such a low script number, that is 831 vs 401, isn't a significant difference. If we were talking about 80k versus 40k, that's different. But at these low levels, it's all the same and the trend lines being presented in various posts are misleading at best. If you were to put some lines on the same page, like exubera sales vs afrezza sales vs the trend lines of any blockbuster drugs you like (for comparison to what a new drug does in it's first year, such as lantus, that became a blockbuster in about 5 yrs and see what the sales growth line is like for it's first year), your eyes might open up a bit. It would be interesting if you could provide that information of Lantus first year sales. Do you have a reference?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 10:21:40 GMT -5
Not handy but i could google it out again. What i do remember is that lantus sold about 54 million its 1st yr out. So, do a basic sales curve with 54 mil as the end point and you have a basic curve to view and compare. Bear in mind, its not meant to be perfect but it does provide a ball park for comparisons.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 10:23:21 GMT -5
Not handy but i could google it out again. What i do remember is that lantus sold about 54 million its 1st yr out. So, do a basic sales curve with 54 mil as the end point and you have a basic curve to view and compare. Bear in mind, its not meant to be perfect but it does provide a ball park for comparisons. I messed up this post but it was jpg that asked for a ref and that was my reply. Using phone ?
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Post by jpg on Apr 10, 2015 10:30:54 GMT -5
Hopefully you will delete the part of the post where you wrongly make me say things I have not said? If you could give us the breakdown of week by week sales data that would as you said: see what the sales growth line is like for it's first year), your eyes might open up a bit.It would be highly appreciated and illuminating. I looked but could not find the sales growth 'week by week' script count that you said we should all look at.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 10, 2015 10:58:09 GMT -5
Closest we have is a monthly for Lantus that posted somewhere on this board. It showed a fairly linear trend that just kept growing and growing all the way to Number One.
I think the same will happen with Afrezza. Once diabetics have tried it, they won't go back to RAA injections. Too few even know about Afrezza, based on what many are writing so, of course, we all have our fingers crossed that Sanofi will soon be putting the pedal to the metal.
I suspect that some day, we will all learn the reason for the "delay" and see it as brilliant strategy. After all, you only get one chance to make a first impression. Sanofi wants to impress the medical community and may be working on getting preliminary dosing and other educational information into the hands of the physicians. A more thorough test for determining dosing has already been listed by the FDA as one of the tasks Sanofi still must undertake in future development of Afrezza.
Growth may explode or it may simply continue on its apparent linear path, based on Sanofi's plan, but you should count on sales growing and Growing and GROWING.
You can take that to the bank IMHO.
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Post by me on Apr 10, 2015 11:00:16 GMT -5
Closest we have is a monthly for Lantus that posted somewhere on this board. It showed a fairly linear trend that just kept growing and growing all the way to Number One. I think the same will happen with Afrezza. Once diabetics have tried it, they won't go back to RAA injections. Too few even know about Afrezza, based on what many are writing so, of course, we all have our fingers crossed that Sanofi will soon be putting the pedal to the metal. I suspect that some day, we will all learn the reason for the "delay" and see it as brilliant strategy. After all, you only get one chance to make a first impression. Sanofi wants to impress the medical community and may be working on getting preliminary dosing and other educational information into the hands of the physicians. A more thorough test for determining dosing has already been listed by the FDA as one of the tasks Sanofi still must undertake in future development of Afrezza. Growth may explode or not based on Sanofi's plan but you can count on it growing and growing and GROWING - and you can take that to the bank IMHO. Check this great post by tripoley, as well as sage words from jpg: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1853/lantus-numbers
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 11:32:38 GMT -5
I contend that the sales numbers are practically identical, at the moment. Being double such a low script number, that is 831 vs 401, isn't a significant difference. If we were talking about 80k versus 40k, that's different. But at these low levels, it's all the same and the trend lines being presented in various posts are misleading at best. If you were to put some lines on the same page, like exubera sales vs afrezza sales vs the trend lines of any blockbuster drugs you like (for comparison to what a new drug does in it's first year, such as lantus, that became a blockbuster in about 5 yrs and see what the sales growth line is like for it's first year), your eyes might open up a bit. It would be interesting if you could provide that information of Lantus first year sales. Do you have a reference? mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1853/lantus-numbersBut, bear in mind that it's a thought process that's important (at least to me). As an example, I don't focus on the difference between 400 and 800 scripts but rather, at least at this point in time in this process, I'm focused on the bigger picture. So, I'd rather see you not simply go through what I'm looking at but rather, take the bigger idea, put some thought and research into it, and see what you come up with. For example, my thought process combined with what's available to me has put the initial data (or backed into data as in lantus scripts) afrezza, exubera, and lantus on a chart. I have my reasons, my rational which may or may not work for how you think of it. But, maybe you'll come up with a better way to view the big picture of where we are and where we're headed.
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Post by jpg on Apr 10, 2015 12:13:05 GMT -5
It would be interesting if you could provide that information of Lantus first year sales. Do you have a reference? mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1853/lantus-numbersBut, bear in mind that it's a thought process that's important (at least to me). As an example, I don't focus on the difference between 400 and 800 scripts but rather, at least at this point in time in this process, I'm focused on the bigger picture. So, I'd rather see you not simply go through what I'm looking at but rather, take the bigger idea, put some thought and research into it, and see what you come up with. For example, my thought process combined with what's available to me has put the initial data (or backed into data as in lantus scripts) afrezza, exubera, and lantus on a chart. I have my reasons, my rational which may or may not work for how you think of it. But, maybe you'll come up with a better way to view the big picture of where we are and where we're headed. What did you say? Sorry I don't understand that type of communication strategy. Word fog would be how I would best describe that statement. When will you share your weekly Lantus sales data? Some of us looked pretty hard for it and would really appreciate to have that information. Thank you in advance
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 12:36:45 GMT -5
mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1853/lantus-numbersBut, bear in mind that it's a thought process that's important (at least to me). As an example, I don't focus on the difference between 400 and 800 scripts but rather, at least at this point in time in this process, I'm focused on the bigger picture. So, I'd rather see you not simply go through what I'm looking at but rather, take the bigger idea, put some thought and research into it, and see what you come up with. For example, my thought process combined with what's available to me has put the initial data (or backed into data as in lantus scripts) afrezza, exubera, and lantus on a chart. I have my reasons, my rational which may or may not work for how you think of it. But, maybe you'll come up with a better way to view the big picture of where we are and where we're headed. What did you say? Sorry I don't understand that type of communication strategy. Word fog would be how I would best describe that statement. When will you share your weekly Lantus sales data? Some of us looked pretty hard for it and would really appreciate to have that information. Thank you in advance Was trying to politely say is that if you're interested in my line of thought, feel free to put in the work and share your viewpoints on your results. But it doesn't help me (or you) to simply take my data and poke holes in it. So no, there'll be no data downloading today. If you can't figure out lantus scripts or come up with a method to get you there based on available data, then I guess that's where you stop.
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