Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:39:27 GMT -5
Wow jpg.....a lot to consider there. Thanks!!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:42:50 GMT -5
And your observation about my thread title is so right. I wasnt thinking about that when i posted, but then again i dont look at it in that manner, as such a negative.
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Apr 9, 2015 13:45:00 GMT -5
I'm comfortable with my risk because I don't sit in the dark hoping it all works out some day. Simply put, I know no matter how much DD I think I've done, I'm still sitting in the dark and hoping. And IMHO, the moment you convince yourself you aren't, the room just got tangibly darker. But biotech is by its nature, risk-on. Even Nate commented on ST that he nearly gave up on CELG but held through and succeeded.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:58:35 GMT -5
I'm comfortable with my risk because I don't sit in the dark hoping it all works out some day. Simply put, I know no matter how much DD I think I've done, I'm still sitting in the dark and hoping. And IMHO, the moment you convince yourself you aren't, the room just got tangibly darker. But biotech is by its nature, risk-on. Even Nate commented on ST that he nearly gave up on CELG but held through and succeeded. Yeah, well put. No matter how much we know in the present moment, in the end we have to take a leap of faith. I continue to endeavor to remove as much of the unknowns as possible before relying on faith. I'd like to think that everyone would.
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Apr 9, 2015 14:01:40 GMT -5
Simply put, I know no matter how much DD I think I've done, I'm still sitting in the dark and hoping. And IMHO, the moment you convince yourself you aren't, the room just got tangibly darker. But biotech is by its nature, risk-on. Even Nate commented on ST that he nearly gave up on CELG but held through and succeeded. Yeah, well put. No matter how much we know in the present moment, in the end we have to take a leap of faith. I continue to endeavor to remove as much of the unknowns as possible before relying on faith. I'd like to think that everyone would. Indeed. I rechecked my DD and investment last Fall when things didn't behave as I expected. At that point, I determined it would be 'dead money' for a while, but would eventually play and pay. Right now, sucks to be right. But eventually I think it really won't.
|
|
|
Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Apr 9, 2015 14:06:26 GMT -5
Hi Davinci, I gave you a thumbs up for your last post because as a stand alone post it has obvious merit. We need different opinions to make better decisions. I have limited (polite) understanding of trading 'tricks and strategies' and the intricacies of contracts for these types of deals so therefore like the input of posters who know more about these things. This being said I find it strange you would be sensitive to comments by others seeing the label you chose for this tread: The parallels to exubera are starting to show! It's actually hard to come up with a more preconceived negative tittle then that. I read it and was going to skip this whole tread because it just seems like a MF or Yahoo type posting. Sadly and as usual I couldn't resist and followed the long rambling conversation (and added a bit to it myself...). I say long and rambling because we all know all these things to be true, potentially true, possibly true, probably not true, possibly false, probably false etc... My point being only time will tell for the vast majority of what you stated and many others are stating. Yes money is made in the grey zone and yes Mannkind has always been in the grey zone. Individuals will look back and say 'but it was so obvious'. What will they say was so obvious will only be obvious at that future time point though... I'm an MD and I evaluate stuff as an MD. The first thing that surprises me after any drug approval is the compression of time in investor vs MD culture. I've only prescribed or given a few drugs immediately after approval: partly by caution and partly by lack of knowledge about various new drugs and the urgency of a better alternative. We don't have time to keep up with what's new let alone what will be coming down the pipeline even if it is revolutionary. We can at best follow stuff from our own field of expertise. I can name you a long list of drugs that were met by cautious or very cautious medical opinions and are now standard of care. With what I know medically about Afrezza I would have no hesitation to say that it is an effective and extremely desirable drug in well selected patients (and that the 'well selected' piece of the pie is huge). Will Sanofi and Mannkind screw it up? Don't know. I can also state that I never expected the innovative ways many of the type 1s who use the drug modify protocol and get very good results. I was expecting a bit of tinkering around the edges but not what they are doing (and remarkably effectively I may add: this seems relatively consistent and ground breaking). Will Mannkind and Sanofi notice and act on it or screw it up? Don't know. If I was a type 1 I would be very interested in quickly trying this. It seems to change not only HbA1C but quality of life dramatically. Other things I do know is well expressed by this simple analysis: blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/03/24/mannkind-more-confidence-lower-target/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahooMarch 24, 2015, 9:46 A.M. ET MannKind: More Confidence, Lower Target Email Print smaller Larger By Ben Levisohn Jefferies’ Shaunak Deepak says he is “more confident in the long-term sales potential of [MannKind's (MNKD)] Afrezza” despite lackluster early sales. He explains why: PR Newsfoto/Associated Press We spoke with 16 endocrinologists at the ENDO meeting, none of whom had prescribed Afrezza as of early March. However, feedback suggested strong interest in the drug, so we spoke to two physicians at diabetes centers who had prescribed the drug six and four times, respectively. The first physician had prescribed Afrezza in patients with Type 2 diabetes who were failing basal insulin alone. He suggested that some physicians may see the adoption of mealtime insulin as a logical step before basal insulin, but that the basal-first paradigm was “cast in stone,” suggesting there may be a long learning curve for first-line Afrezza adoption. The second physician described using Afrezza instead of injectable mealtime insulin in both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetics. He had favorable initial impressions of the drug. Collectively, the feedback suggested that Afrezza could be a desirable option as a first insulin or an alternative to injectable mealtime insulin, but that it will likely take additional time to educate physicians to use Afrezza to its full potential. As a result, Deepak now expects an Afrezza “trajectory” of ten years, resulting in his price target coming down to $9 from $10. You just made my case as to why the doc who Rx'd Afrezza for two under 18 year olds was gutsy. Afrezza is a new drug not approved for youth and one that has some worried about lung issues. Also, many Endos are leery of due to their conservative nature in treating a disease. I realize many docs Rx off label and many might for youths as Afrezza garners a better safety profile but this early on is gutsy, imo.
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Apr 9, 2015 14:22:03 GMT -5
And your observation about my thread title is so right. I wasnt thinking about that when i posted, but then again i dont look at it in that manner, as such a negative. I don't understand this contradiction. You can't have it both ways. Sounds like you are backtracking on your offense while still defending your AF Style to get attention. How can you be both: 1) in agreement that your original post sounded like a Motley Fool AF post while at the same time 2) Not consider this as negative comparing a kinetic new modality with brief exposure to market. Your contradiction doesn't hold water nor does it seem genuine to me. To me, it sounds like you are trying to appease those who you have delivered a message to who may know a hell of a lot more than you do from the science side of this. Science will prevail over assumptions, projections and theory without knowing the inside scoop of what motivates SNY to want to be partnered with MNKD.
|
|
MLG
Newbie
Posts: 13
|
Post by MLG on Apr 9, 2015 22:04:53 GMT -5
You are wrong. Exubera was covered by insurance. I would know, because my insurance covered it costing me only $40 for a months supply.
ML
|
|
|
Post by lynn on Apr 9, 2015 22:43:21 GMT -5
Mlgranger, It's great to see you on this board I'm very impressed with your success at managing your T1 Diabetes without injections ( assuming I'm recalling the correct facts, which I think I am ) which would mean that you're only using Afrezza as that to my knowledge is the only non needle option , AMAZING!!! I admire you even more as these boards can be quite intimidating ( I'm comfortable here as I've been here a while but I still find it intimidating at times ) only because most are much smarter than myself when it comes to this . But you're one of many actual Afrezzausers, who help me sleep at night , even tho I'm in the red & have been for a while. I'm happy to hear about your success with Afrezza & am wondering if you've posted on any diabetic forums/blogs as fellow Diabetics have much to gain from your experience . Part of me ( the RN part of me ) feels that you could help a lot of others & I don't want you to go away from here at all ! But from what I've read on Diabetic forums ( where I'd never post bc I'm not Diabetic) . They have a lot of questions & you may have a lot of answers for them... I wish you continued health & well being Lynn
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Apr 9, 2015 23:02:27 GMT -5
"Except for Al Mann, other MNKD insiders are selling stock faster than an anorexic girl eating chocolates after knowing Armageddon is coming. "
Poor taste, and does not make sense.
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Apr 9, 2015 23:18:21 GMT -5
a release at a small % given the broad stroke? anyone's speculation as to why; other than meeting expenses. Doesn't make me "lose sleep". Ready to nod off now. Good evening.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Apr 9, 2015 23:28:19 GMT -5
You are wrong. Exubera was covered by insurance. I would know, because my insurance covered it costing me only $40 for a months supply. ML ML, people such as you are really going to make a difference in other diabetics' lives. I hope your experience with Afrezza continues to make you healthier and happier, that's what it's all about!
|
|
|
Post by hankscorpio7 on Apr 10, 2015 0:16:34 GMT -5
And your observation about my thread title is so right. I wasnt thinking about that when i posted, but then again i dont look at it in that manner, as such a negative. I don't understand this contradiction. You can't have it both ways. Sounds like you are backtracking on your offense while still defending your AF Style to get attention. How can you be both: 1) in agreement that your original post sounded like a Motley Fool AF post while at the same time 2) Not consider this as negative comparing a kinetic new modality with brief exposure to market. Your contradiction doesn't hold water nor does it seem genuine to me. To me, it sounds like you are trying to appease those who you have delivered a message to who may know a hell of a lot more than you do from the science side of this. Science will prevail over assumptions, projections and theory without knowing the inside scoop of what motivates SNY to want to be partnered with MNKD. He isn't backtracking- he is acknowledging weaknesses in his ideas- sign of humility. Need a lesson in humility?-the market shall surely provide it. He would appease people for thumbs up?? Is Warren Buffet an MD or scientist? If you only needed an advanced degree to guarantee success in the market... Interesting change in jpg's comments- not as abrasive, confrontational- as if he is figuring out what he missed in his DD. Good to see. Why confront naysayers if your DD noted possibility of $2-3 sp? If it didn't... Knowing the science is useful in long term investing, but acknowledging issues with fundamentals will provide better entrance points. Why buy 10k when your research tells you be patient and you can buy 20k? Patience works both ways. If you view your investments as a long vs. short, you will lose performance. You did your DD, knew stock has very little chance of holding above $2b market cap but held anyway?? Too personal- would have admitted shorts were correct- and they were. And if you bet the farm- rational responses to other viewpoints will be poor. Market cap starting to look decent, but I'm not crazy about overall markets. Seems everyday someone has to point out the biotech bubble. I might know the molecular structure of insulin, but I can't prevent the tides. But market cap can't really go much below $1.5b can it?! will be interesting summer. My annoyances- MNKD insiders selling. Has been a reliable indicator for my trading. "Become like water my friend.."- Bruce Lee
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Apr 10, 2015 1:15:51 GMT -5
hankscorpio, I am glad you like my new found humility and kindness. I am looking forward to your transformation into a kind and humble person as you expect of others.
I will point out I have consistently been a 'conservative' on early adoption and have repeatedly expressed my view that new drugs as a general rule all start off slowly. Drugs that are from a new class like Afrezza especially so. I am certainly 'impressed' by the lengths many go to to discredit unique drugs that work well and will be meaningful to patients.
|
|
|
Post by kball on Apr 10, 2015 8:03:27 GMT -5
You are wrong. Exubera was covered by insurance. I would know, because my insurance covered it costing me only $40 for a months supply. ML I'm not sure where to put this request ml, and perhaps i should have pm'd you this in private, but as far as i can recollect you may be the only PWD that is now on Afrezza and has since discontinued injections altogether after an earlier attempt at doing that failed (making it an even more interesting and important case imo) If any topic deserves its own thread, its this topic, whether here or on some diabetes forum...especially as a former user of exubera. **As far as this thread and the OP, I'm totally in favor of differing opinions as well as differing strengths of conviction. My hunch is most longs have not made considerable money with Mannkind yet, trust the science, and the potential market, while their patience is being tested depending on how big a position one has and at what price their cost basis is. I approve of this thread as one that leads investors to consider we don't and can't know everything. But it does feel good to own part of something that seems to improve suffering. I hope its worth the opportunity cost (my money potentially elsewhere) for my 5 year time horizon
|
|